GM says Jose Bautista likely to play third base

[baulderdash77]

Brandon Phillips got 100 runs last year with a .332 OBP and he's done it 2x in the last 4 years with .330 OBP. Juan Pierre has done it several times, or 95+ at least, with .330 OBP.

It's more than possible, you just need to be hitting 1st and getting into scoring position alot.

[Schad]

Bautista at #9.

Bautista hit 50+ HRs and got on base at a .378 clip.

Brandon Phillips got 100 runs last year with a .332 OBP and he's done it 2x in the last 4 years with .330 OBP. Juan Pierre has done it several times, or 95+ at least, with .330 OBP.

Phillips also has home run power; as it turns out, the easiest way to score a run is to hit the ball out of the ballpark, something that he did 18 times last year and 30 times the previous time he reached the 100 run threshold.

Juan Pierre hasn't reached 100 runs since 2004. In the five seasons where he has scored 95+ runs, he has had OBPs of .378, .361, .374, .331, and .341. He's a special case, solely because he has been in the top five in plate appearances...it isn't so much a reflection of his skill as a reflection of the inexplicable desire some teams have to run him up to the plate 750 times. Rajai Davis isn't going to hit 750 times (nor should he), ergo he isn't going to score 100 runs. Simply isn't even within the realm of possibility.

[wlujaysfan55]

yeah, that list of league leaders is a pretty special list of players, for the most part. Davis very likely will not be joining the 2011 list.

[damadmonk]

For those of you who don't like Davis as our leadoff guy- he's probably going to get us 100+ runs this year hitting at the top of the order. I'm expecting 30-35 2B's, 5-7 3B's, 5-7 HR and 50+ SB. I see him getting into scoring position at least 90 times just by himself next year.

He won't get anywhere near 100 runs, because he's awful at getting on base. In 561 PAs, he got on base 180 times...even if he bumped that up to 200, he'd need to score at a 50%+ rate, which is unfathomable. Rickey Henderson, the king of crossing the plate, only scored at a 43% rate for his career, and in addition to being the greatest baserunning threat of all time, he played on some of the best offensive teams of his generation.

He's got a shot at 100 runs if he's leading off with us.

Lewis, who lead off most of yr, finished with 466 PA while getting on 150 times (OBP .332, 112 hits/38 walks) while scoring 70 times. Lewis was scoring at approximately 46.6% of the time while getting on base.

If Davis scores near that clip of Lewis, he would of scored 84 times in the 180 times he got on base. But, you would also have to factor that Lewis only stole 17 bases compared to Davis's 50 steals.

100 runs isn't outside the realm of possibility for Davis. His lifetime OBP is .330 with his best season at .360.


My question is, what position is Davis playing? Does he have an arm for RF? Or is he playing C with Wells moving over? Or LF with Snider moving to RF?

[whiterasta80]

Ideally CF with Wells moving over to RF, but fluid. So if Wells is feeling healthy while Davis is banged up that switches, and Bautista can move over on occasion. I don't think its a good idea to move Snider, he needs to focus on hitting before he starts adjusting to position changes.

I'll settle for 80 runs out of Davis if he's getting 500+ plate appearances (for which he'd better be OBPing .345+). Anything more than that would be a Bautista-level blow up.

[Schad]

He's got a shot at 100 runs if he's leading off with us.

No, he still doesn't.

Lewis, who lead off most of yr, finished with 466 PA while getting on 150 times (OBP .332, 112 hits/38 walks) while scoring 70 times. Lewis was scoring at approximately 46.6% of the time while getting on base.

Lewis actually got on base 159 times, and scored 44% of the time. And even that was aberrant.

If Davis scores near that clip of Lewis, he would of scored 84 times in the 180 times he got on base. But, you would also have to factor that Lewis only stole 17 bases compared to Davis's 50 steals.

No, you don't have to factor that in, because doing so would overlook the fact that Lewis hits quite a few more doubles, and thus begins in scoring position more frequently.

100 runs isn't outside the realm of possibility for Davis. His lifetime OBP is .330 with his best season at .360.

No, it's almost totally out of the realm of possibility. Beyond everything mentioned above, there's a pretty good chance that Davis ends up as either our ninth hitter or fourth outfielder anyway, because he's a pretty terrible hitter and shouldn't be leading off for all but the worst offensive teams.

[damadmonk]

100 runs isn't outside the realm of possibility for Davis. His lifetime OBP is .330 with his best season at .360.

No, it's almost totally out of the realm of possibility. Beyond everything mentioned above, there's a pretty good chance that Davis ends up as either our ninth hitter or fourth outfielder anyway, because he's a pretty terrible hitter and shouldn't be leading off for all but the worst offensive teams.

Completely disagree. In fact, the more I look into it, the more likely it would seem. The numbers above for Davis assumes that he hit leadoff most of his at bats. But this isn't the case at all.
[url]
http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... &year=&t=b[/url]

Davis only had 268 PA compared to Lewis's 467 PA hitting in the lead off spot.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=lewisfr02&year=&t=b

If you just take Davis's lead off numbers, he had a .291 BA and an OBP of .336. He got on base 90 times and scored 40 times for a scoring clip of 44.4% for the times he was on base.

He did this while playing for a team that didn't field a player that hit 17 home runs (Tor had 8 players with at least 17) or a slugging % of over .438 (Tor had 6 with a min of 298 AB's).

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/oak/cat/slugAvg/oakland-athletics
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/tor/cat/slugAvg/toronto-blue-jays

He's leaving a non hitter friendly stadium where he hit .267 with an OBP of .290 for a hitter friendly stadium.

All signs point to Davis scoring close to 100 runs with a Jays lineup vs. an Oak lineup as the full time lead off hitter.


As far as hitting 9th or as our 4th outfielder, who do you see as our current lead off hitter and 3 starting outfielders? From previous sourced threads, we are going to be playing small ball and JB is likely our 3rd basemen. This leads me to believe it is likely that Davis is our lead off hitter and 3rd outfielder (Snider/Wells).

[Schad]

Completely disagree. In fact, the more I look into it, the more likely it would seem. The numbers above for Davis assumes that he hit leadoff most of his at bats. But this isn't the case at all.
[url]
http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... &year=&t=b[/url]

Davis only had 268 PA compared to Lewis's 467 PA hitting in the lead off spot.

For good reason: Davis is a poor hitter and shouldn't be hitting leadoff.

He's leaving a non hitter friendly stadium where he hit .267 with an OBP of .290 for a hitter friendly stadium.

He only had a .705 OPS on the road as well (compared to .687 at home) and that owes largely to his road BA/BIP.

All signs point to Davis scoring close to 100 runs with a Jays lineup vs. an Oak lineup as the full time lead off hitter.

No. No they don't.

As far as hitting 9th or as our 4th outfielder, who do you see as our current lead off hitter and 3 starting outfielders?

Wells, Snider, Thames in the outfield. I also suspect that Bautista will end up getting more reps in the outfield than originally projected, especially against lefties.

As for the leadoff hitter, Escobar is a superior option.

From previous sourced threads, we are going to be playing small ball and JB is likely our 3rd basemen

If we're planning to play small ball with a team that nearly set the all-time record for home runs in a season, everyone involved with the franchise should be fired.

[SharoneWright]

Interesting debate. Almost highlights the need/benefit of acquiring a quality true lead off bat.

I second the notion of the "small ball" facade floated recently in the media. Like what? Hill or Lind will be doing a lot of bunting? Because Wells, Snider, and Bautista sure won't. And with the OBP of Davis (as an example) in the lead off spot, I'd be more inclined to see a doubles hitter bat second.... lol.

And FWIW, I really don't mind Bautista at 3rd. However, the obvious solution is to play EE there - thereby putting his RH bat in the lineup balancing the LH bat of Lind at first while playing JBau at his preferred position in RF. To me, Bautista is on par defensively at either spot, but I'd love to send a message to him that management is listening to your preferences. Let's treat our best players with a touch of respect.

[damadmonk]

For good reason: Davis is a poor hitter and shouldn't be hitting leadoff.

How is a .291 BA and an OBP of .336. out of the lead off spot considered a "poor hitter"? Now I can't speak on to why he was moved out of that spot, but he the results are there playing for a terrible hitting A's club.

He only had a .705 OPS on the road as well (compared to .687 at home) and that owes largely to his road BA/BIP.

Are you suggesting that Davis hit better on the road compared to Oak Coliseum? So am I. He had an OPS of .718 in the lead off spot (hm/rd).


All signs point to Davis scoring close to 100 runs with a Jays lineup vs. an Oak lineup as the full time lead off hitter.

No. No they don't.

Sure they do. If you adjust Davis' lead off numbers in Oak to 162 games, he would of scored 111 with a noodle hitting lineup behind him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... =&per162=1

Wells, Snider, Thames in the outfield. I also suspect that Bautista will end up getting more reps in the outfield than originally projected, especially against lefties.

As for the leadoff hitter, Escobar is a superior option.

Thames isn't even on the 40 man roster with a spot open.
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=tor

If JB moves to the outfield against lefties, that leave E5 or Johnny Mac at 3rd with E5 or Lind playing 1st. The DH would likely be the right hitting Davis if you take Lind out of the lineup against the left hander. Or Davis would be in LF taking reps away from Snider. Either way, he's hitting.

Escobar has < 30 ab in the leadoff spot the past 2 years. I haven't seen anything to suggest that Farrel will put him in that spot.

[Schad]

How is a .291 BA and an OBP of .336. out of the lead off spot considered a "poor hitter"? Now I can't speak on to why he was moved out of that spot, but he the results are there playing for a terrible hitting A's club.

.291/.336/.382 isn't great; consider that it's an OPS nearly 50 points below our team average. Then consider that his overall line was 70 points below our team average and you'll see why he shouldn't be hitting leadoff.

Are you suggesting that Davis hit better on the road compared to Oak Coliseum? So am I. He had an OPS of .718 in the lead off spot (hm/rd).

Well, now I'm suggesting that you don't understand batting average on balls in play. Take that out of the equation and he was equally bad on the road. And again, an OPS of .718 is pretty bad.

Sure they do. If you adjust Davis' lead off numbers in Oak to 162 games, he would of scored 111 with a noodle hitting lineup behind him.

Heh, yeah...if you extrapolate out to 775 plate appearances, which would be second all-time behind Jimmy Rollins' 778 in 2007 and set a new AL record, he gets there. But you can't possibly be suggesting that's likely, can you?

Thames isn't even on the 40 man roster with a spot open.
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=tor

Which is common with youngsters; he wasn't Rule 5 eligible. He mashes righties and they need to see whether they have someone there...he'll make the team.

If JB moves to the outfield against lefties, that leave E5 or Johnny Mac at 3rd with E5 or Lind playing 1st. The DH would likely be the right hitting Davis if you take Lind out of the lineup against the left hander. Or Davis would be in LF taking reps away from Snider. Either way, he's hitting.

You've accidentally hit upon why Davis isn't likely to set the AL record for plate appearances...E5 is a better option vs. lefties (.847 OPS career vs. .750 for Davis), and just about anyone can beat Davis' .694 career OPS against righties. Ergo, he probably shouldn't be leading off every day.

Escobar has < 30 ab in the leadoff spot the past 2 years. I haven't seen anything to suggest that Farrel will put him in that spot.

Nor have I. But he should, because he's a better hitter than Davis. And while Davis might well start the year hitting leadoff, I doubt that he's going to get anywhere near enough reps, nor hit anywhere near enough, to approach 100 runs. This is one of those debates that will get forgotten by April 15th when Davis gets dropped to the ninth spot or out of the lineup entirely.

[wlujaysfan55]

Let's use his best OB% of his career of .360:

700 AB's = OB% .360 = 252 times on base = 45% rate of scoring = 113 runs
650 AB's = OB% .360 = 234 times on base = 45% rate of scoring = 105 runs
600 AB's = OB% .360 = 216 times on base = 45% rate of scoring = 97 runs

But let's assume his OB% is .336

700 AB's = OB% .336 = 235 times on base = 45% rate of scoring = 105 runs
650 AB's = OB% .336 = 218 times on base = 45% rate of scoring = 98 runs
600 AB's = OB% .336 = 201 times on base = 45% rate of scoring = 90 runs

But in his 3 seasons in the league where he's played in at least 100 games, his OB% is about .323.

700 AB's = OB% .323 = 226 times on base = 45% rate of scoring = 101 runs
650 AB's = OB% .323 = 210 times on base = 45% rate of scoring = 94.5 runs
600 AB's = OB% .323 = 194 times on base = 45% rate of scoring = 87 runs


So we're making assumptions about a) the # of at-bats b) his OB% c) rate of scoring

The entire analysis primarily depends on the # of plate appearances. We're not AA & not sure what he & Farrell have in mind. But I will say this: an OB% average of .323/.330/.336 is pretty horrible for a leadoff hitter. But I guess he has the potential to be the next Juan Pierre & Schadenfreude has covered this comparison already.

If we're planning to play small ball with a team that nearly set the all-time record for home runs in a season, everyone involved with the franchise should be fired.

I would agree & was my first reaction after reading that article. Took a while for Cito's philosophy to get through to each of the players. It'll take a lot of time and patience to implement small ball. But to go from one extreme to the next right away isn't wise imo. Especially when you have home run threats like Wells, Snider, Bautista, Lind, Arencibia and Hill/Encarnacion have their share of power as well.

[damadmonk]

The debate with Davis could go on and on and it won't matter until the end of the year when we find out...

As for the small ball, I hope it's only for the top of the lineup (Davis/Escobar).

The rest of the line up sports 7 possible hitters that could hit 20 hrs each.

Wells
JB
Lind
Hill
Snider
E5
JP

Escobar handles the bat very well thus sac bunts, hit n runs would be in play.

[Schad]

Escobar handles the bat very well thus sac bunts, hit n runs would be in play.

Yeah, but why are you sac bunting when all of the players behind can hit 20-40 HRs apiece, and score hitters from first with gapped shots? More often than not, statistically speaking, it's a waste of an out.

[kavan]

We do have Escobar and the Rookie we got back for Marcum. Keep Jose in RF that cannon is fun to watch man he has some life in that little body of his. If Jose could just steal a few more bases (hard to do he is usually trotting them most the time). Would be a really fun player to watch. Wells is not what he use to be but Snider Wells Jose looks like a good OF to me. Lind Hill Escobar 1B 2B and SS doesnt seem bad either. If JPA can work his magic behind the plate were fine.

[damadmonk]

Escobar handles the bat very well thus sac bunts, hit n runs would be in play.

Yeah, but why are you sac bunting when all of the players behind can hit 20-40 HRs apiece, and score hitters from first with gapped shots? More often than not, statistically speaking, it's a waste of an out.

I'm only going with what Farrell has mention on manufacturing runs. These are the only methods I can tell see happening with "small ball".

[Schad]

I'm only going with what Farrell has mention on manufacturing runs. These are the only methods I can tell see happening with "small ball".

Yeah, but pre-season talk and in-game action tend to be different things altogether, and I'd be pretty surprised if Farrell tried to have a bunch of swing-and-miss hitters play hit-and-run baseball. Pretty disappointed, as well, but he is a pitching coach...would show a worrying lack of adaptability, though.

[wlujaysfan55]

http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ ... _position/

[hyper316]

a tad OT, but which position would Bautista have a better chance of making the allstar team again? RF or 3B?