http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/scouting ... =310115001After breaking down film of both teams, Scouts Inc. offers 10 things to watch in this week's Packers-Falcons matchup.
1. Handle a tough place to play: Five of the Packers' six losses came on the road this season, and they have essentially played three playoff games in a row to qualify for the postseason. Now they are operating on a short week. Atlanta lost only one game at home this year and should be quite fresh for this contest. The Falcons were 3-3 against 2010 playoff teams, but they do have a substantial special-teams advantage. Only two teams turned the ball over less than Atlanta. The Falcons were the least-penalized team in the NFL this season, and Green Bay was not far behind. These teams met in Week 12 in Atlanta; the Falcons won 20-17 on a Matt Bryant field goal with nine seconds on the clock.
2. Neutralize Atlanta's defensive line: It doesn't get a lot of publicity, but Atlanta's defensive line is a real handful to deal with. The Falcons use a lot of bodies up front and do a nice job of keeping their guys fresh. John Abraham, Kroy Biermann and Jonathan Babineaux are excellent players. Jamaal Anderson also is an exceptional run stuffer who has a very prominent role in this rotation. RG Josh Sitton and C Scott Wells are Green Bay's best linemen, but RT Bryan Bulaga is a liability and could be exploited.
3. Put Ryan on the ground: With the exception of LT Sam Baker, the Atlanta offensive line is very solid, and Matt Ryan is a difficult quarterback to sack. LB Clay Matthews had one of the Packers' three sacks in Philadelphia, but he will usually line up on the opposite side of Baker. The Packers' defense is very difficult to prepare for and will use a lot of different personnel groupings. This is a very tough defense to keep a quarterback clean against.
4. Stop White: Wide receiver Roddy White is likely to see Charles Woodson more often than not this week. But Woodson is used in a wide variety of ways. He is a great blitzer, tackler, run defender and stripper of the football. Tramon Williams might actually be the superior pure cover man at this point. Woodson has the size and strength to battle White and should receive excellent safety support from Nick Collins, one of the best free safeties in the league. The Packers have been exceptional defending the pass outside the numbers, but White is an elite wide receiver whom Ryan feeds with great regularity.
5. Matchup to watch: Packers WR Greg Jennings versus Falcons CB Dunta Robinson: Jennings caught only one pass for 8 yards last week, but there probably is not a wide receiver who had a better season. He also had a big game in Atlanta Week 12. The Falcons have a very good set of corners in Brent Grimes and Robinson. Grimes is the better player of the two. But the rest of their secondary can be had and could struggle when Green Bay goes to its sub packages with extra wideouts on the field. The Packers use more four- and-five receiver sets than just about any offense in the league, and Aaron Rodgers was exceptional at spreading the ball around last week.
6. Rattle Rodgers: Green Bay does a lot of substituting of offensive personnel and will use a wide variety of formations. They are difficult to prepare for. Rodgers is very bright and well-prepared and has an extremely quick release. He is exceptional against the blitz. The Falcons should try to get to him with just their defensive line, but they have been much more willing to bring extra pressure as the play of their secondary has improved as the season progressed. Quarterbacks have not had much success against this defense lately. But Rodgers threw for a whopping 344 yards when these teams met last and also was very effective as a runner.
7. Stop the run: The Falcons allowed 4.6 yards per rushing attempt this season. Only five defenses were worse. Led by James Starks, the Packers rushed for 138 yards and averaged 4.3 yards per carry in Philadelphia. Starks looks like a find. He has fresh legs at this point of the season and has more natural ability than any of the other Green Bay runners. Even without the threat of run, Rodgers is exceptional at selling play-action. With a run game, he could be lethal against an aggressive, free-flowing Atlanta defense.
8. Hit big plays: The Falcons have converted very few long receptions. In fact, they ranked last in the NFL in completions of 30 or more yards. Ryan's 6.5 yards per attempt average was good for only 26th amongst quarterbacks, while the Packers allowed just 6.5 yards per attempt. But Green Bay has really struggled against tight ends, and Tony Gonzalez could have a big role this weekend. The Packers might choose to put Woodson on Gonzalez and Williams on White. Green Bay's defense is exceptional in the red zone -- an area where Gonzalez thrives.
9. Be more physical: Often considered a great rushing offense, the Falcons are more of a volume running game. They are persistent about sticking with rushing calls, often from heavier personnel. But the Falcons averaged only 3.8 yards per rush for the season. The Falcons always look to be the most physical team on the field, and their well-coached offensive line plays with a real nasty streak. Atlanta will use a lot of heavier run-personnel groupings and have good blockers in their skill position players. The Packers have some excellent run defenders in B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett and Desmond Bishop. Raji in particular has been nearly unblockable.
10. Matchup to watch: Falcons RB Michael Turner versus Packers run defense: Turner doesn't offer a lot in the pass game, but he is the foundation of Atlanta's offense and can wear down the opponent. Turner has put the ball on the ground lately, but he doesn't have a long history of fumbles. Jason Snelling is also one of the best backup running backs in the league and should see plenty of action as well. The Falcons are better running to their right.
Prediction:
Green Bay 27
Atlanta 24
