Official Trade Thread XV: 12/22/10 - 5/3/11

[nate33]

The wild card - and really the biggest issue - is what kind of money Young's going to get offered; I can definitely say that if he'd get anything like what would be 5 years @ $40 million (or the equivalent under the next CBA), I'm squarely coming down on the "trade Nick!" side of things.

Considering that a lot of teams blew their wad on the Summer of 2010 and with a potentially stricter salary cap on the horizon, $8M per year for Nick Young seems unlikely IMO. When it's all said and done he's still going to be just a complimentary scorer on a bad team. Maybe he gets the max number of years, but I don't think the dollar figure will be high.

I'm crossing my fingers that you are correct. One thing that concerns me is the numbers he is putting up so far. As of now, there are only 12 guys in the league who score as much as Nick on a per-minute basis with a TS% equal or greater. If he keeps this up all year, a fair case can be made that he's a serviceable #1 offensive threat on any team, and a high quality #2 offensive threat on any team. Throw in the fact that he's a two way player and one might consider him to be a, gulp, star-caliber player.

[Hoopalotta]

The wild card - and really the biggest issue - is what kind of money Young's going to get offered; I can definitely say that if he'd get anything like what would be 5 years @ $40 million (or the equivalent under the next CBA), I'm squarely coming down on the "trade Nick!" side of things.

Considering that a lot of teams blew their wad on the Summer of 2010 and with a potentially stricter salary cap on the horizon, $8M per year for Nick Young seems unlikely IMO. When it's all said and done he's still going to be just a complimentary scorer on a bad team. Maybe he gets the max number of years, but I don't think the dollar figure will be high.

Definitely could be off and it was just an 'if'; hard for me to say. I certainly didn't have Drew Gooden pegged at $35 million. Before he got traded to Milwaukee, I also thought Salmons was due for about 3 years @ $9 million total (and it looks like Chicago didn't think he'd opt out either, judging by their trade)

One thing that could affect the Nick market is the existence of a cap clearing amnesty clause in the new CBA. If that happens, it could open up the list of potential buyers. Right now there aren't that many teams that project to have money. Cleveland and Indiana might be possible suitors.

[Hoopalotta]

One way we might be able to hedge with Nick is if we'd be open to a sign and trade if the bidding gets out of hand to where we take back bad 2012 salary or whatever. That might open up the number of suitors (which is good for Nick) and work out in a BOYD sort of way for us.

[mhd]

Nick is a RFA, so we'll match. Considering the dearth of teams with cap space, and the likely dwindling of the salary cap, I doubt he'll get an astronomical offer.

[rl25g]

rarely post here.
but the i wanted some thoughts on if we were to trade Blatche and draft Terrence Jones.

Our core lineup would be
Wall/Hinrich
Young
Jones
Lewis/Booker
McGee/Seraphin

I really like Jones with Lewis at the forward spots. Rebounding, Toughness and spacing. Allows us to be very utempo.

I just really like if we could trade Blatche and Jones magically fell into our hands

[Kanyewest]

I can't see the Wizards trading Young, Blatche, and McGee under ownership. They didn't even go after a max free agent this offseason (although frankly I'm happy the Wizards didn't get into the LBJ sweepstakes).

[dangermouse]

just following on from an above post

is there any way we could swap Blatche out for another lotto pick?

then we could take Terrence Jones and Enes Kanter.

Wall
Young
Jones
Kanter
McGee

then if only there was a way to trade McGee for Cousins, Ted could forget about the Bullets. WASHINGTON WILDCATS has a great ring to it.

[LyricalRico]

is there any way we could swap Blatche out for another lotto pick?

I think the Suns might be interested in something like that. Blatche+second for Childress+first?. PHX is currently 3 games out of the 8th spot and under .500 overall. Getting a PF could be the jumpstart that they (and more specifically, Steve Nash) need. The West is competitive enough that they could still miss the playoffs, and even if they make it the pick would still be in the mid-teens.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It's too easy to double team post scorers these days. The only time you can get a one on one isolation in the post is if you can put four shooters on the floor around him. That's not going to work if McGee is one of the "shooters". If Seraphin plays post at the four, guards will collapse, or fake like they're collapsing and force Seraphin into bad shots and turnovers.

nate, Charlotte is 6-2 under Silas with Tyrus Thomas and Kwame Brown at PF and C. Dominic McGuire plays quite a bit back up SF.

I have criticized Flip's offense because the four needs to hit the jumper and space the floor. I don't think that's necessary. The great Bulls team over the last three championships just had Rodman for rebounds an defense, along with a bIg body at C.

Javale and Kevin can work in the right system IMO.

[tontoz]

is there any way we could swap Blatche out for another lotto pick?

I think the Suns might be interested in something like that. Blatche+second for Childress+first?. PHX is currently 3 games out of the 8th spot and under .500 overall. Getting a PF could be the jumpstart that they (and more specifically, Steve Nash) need. The West is competitive enough that they could still miss the playoffs, and even if they make it the pick would still be in the mid-teens.

Childress sucks. I would rather have Blatche (or thornton for that matter) than Childress. Taking on that contract for a scrub would be a bad move.

[nate33]

It's too easy to double team post scorers these days. The only time you can get a one on one isolation in the post is if you can put four shooters on the floor around him. That's not going to work if McGee is one of the "shooters". If Seraphin plays post at the four, guards will collapse, or fake like they're collapsing and force Seraphin into bad shots and turnovers.

nate, Charlotte is 6-2 under Silas with Tyrus Thomas and Kwame Brown at PF and C. Dominic McGuire plays quite a bit back up SF.

I have criticized Flip's offense because the four needs to hit the jumper and space the floor. I don't think that's necessary. The great Bulls team over the last three championships just had Rodman for rebounds an defense, along with a bIg body at C.

Javale and Kevin can work in the right system IMO.

Tyrus Thomas shoots 41% on jumpers. He is a much better shooter than any big man we've got. (Blatche shoots 32%).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So what kind of player could we get with a mix of our lottery pick, Nick Young and/or Andray Blatche? That's got to have some value, right?

I'd keep the lotto pick.  We're not close to good enough where we could  trade for one stud and be a very good team.

I really would trade NIck to Chicago for that Charlotte pick though.  Here's the details:

2012 first round draft pick from Charlotte
Charlotte’s own 2012 1st round draft pick to Chicago (top-14 protected in the 2012 Draft, top-12 protected in 2013, top-10 protected in 2014, top-8 protected in 2015 and unprotected in the 2016 Draft.) [Charlotte - Chicago, 2/18/2010]

While the Bobs are playing better under Silas, it's not going to last.  They don't have any great young players and their cap is really messy going forward.  They're pretty old too.  They're going to suck for a while.

How great would it be to have a 25 year old Wall in his prime AND a high lotto pick?  And we could start scouting 8th graders now for the '16 draft which has been barelyawake's plan all along!

I think you guys are both undervaluing Young and Blatche.  

If the Wizards had Carmelo with Wall and McGee they would be competitive IMO.

fisher, the Bobcatsvhave won 4 straight and are 6-2 under Silas.  It is no fluke IMO.  What it is is they got rid of a coach who was living on his past glory, taking the joy out of the game, keeping certain players like Henderson and Thomas on the bench, and that coach could not or would not adjust.  The new coach has a different mindset.  He's got them playing freely and he's figured out his team gets offense fr defense.

The Wizards are MUCH more talented and should have several more wins IMO.  Charlotte is the model for how a coach makes a HUGE difference.

I don't think the Wizards need to do much more than draft well and make changes in management and coaching if things don't change.

"A coach can't give you confidence but he definitely can take it away". Kenny Smith on NBATV 1/12/11

[closg00]

^^^^ Yep

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The wild card - and really the biggest issue - is what kind of money Young's going to get offered; I can definitely say that if he'd get anything like what would be 5 years @ $40 million (or the equivalent under the next CBA), I'm squarely coming down on the "trade Nick!" side of things.

Considering that a lot of teams blew their wad on the Summer of 2010 and with a potentially stricter salary cap on the horizon, $8M per year for Nick Young seems unlikely IMO. When it's all said and done he's still going to be just a complimentary scorer on a bad team. Maybe he gets the max number of years, but I don't think the dollar figure will be high.

I'm crossing my fingers that you are correct. One thing that concerns me is the numbers he is putting up so far. As of now, there are only 12 guys in the league who score as much as Nick on a per-minute basis with a TS% equal or greater. If he keeps this up all year, a fair case can be made that he's a serviceable #1 offensive threat on any team, and a high quality #2 offensive threat on any team. Throw in the fact that he's a two way player and one might consider him to be a, gulp, star-caliber player.

The Wizards didn't pay to keep Haywood and I don't see them paying to keep Nick. Nick is really good if Phil Jackson commented on his trash talking. I know very little about CBA matters and am speaking from what I have seen time and again when I say they will let another team acquire Nick, but they'll resign Thornton on the cheap.

[fishercob]

So what kind of player could we get with a mix of our lottery pick, Nick Young and/or Andray Blatche? That's got to have some value, right?

I'd keep the lotto pick.  We're not close to good enough where we could  trade for one stud and be a very good team.

I really would trade NIck to Chicago for that Charlotte pick though.  Here's the details:

2012 first round draft pick from Charlotte
Charlotte’s own 2012 1st round draft pick to Chicago (top-14 protected in the 2012 Draft, top-12 protected in 2013, top-10 protected in 2014, top-8 protected in 2015 and unprotected in the 2016 Draft.) [Charlotte - Chicago, 2/18/2010]

While the Bobs are playing better under Silas, it's not going to last.  They don't have any great young players and their cap is really messy going forward.  They're pretty old too.  They're going to suck for a while.

How great would it be to have a 25 year old Wall in his prime AND a high lotto pick?  And we could start scouting 8th graders now for the '16 draft which has been barelyawake's plan all along!

I think you guys are both undervaluing Young and Blatche.  

If the Wizards had Carmelo with Wall and McGee they would be competitive IMO.

fisher, the Bobcatsvhave won 4 straight and are 6-2 under Silas.  It is no fluke IMO.  What it is is they got rid of a coach who was living on his past glory, taking the joy out of the game, keeping certain players like Henderson and Thomas on the bench, and that coach could not or would not adjust.  The new coach has a different mindset.  He's got them playing freely and he's figured out his team gets offense fr defense.

That's one way to look at it. One could also observe that they have beaten Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, our Wizards, and Memphis for 5 of those 6 wins. The Chicago win is nice for sure. But the Bobs are not a good team. Like a dozen teams before them, they reached the tune out point with Larry Brown and are happy for the moment. We'll see how things go when they lose 4 or 5 in a row. Silas is 68 and has a career .473 win percentage. I wouldn't hold my breath if I were a Bobs fan.

I understand that you are convinced that Flip is a terrible coach and that he's the reason for the Wizards poor record. I know you well enough that I won't waste my time trying to tell you otherwise.

[nate33]

The Wizards didn't pay to keep Haywood and I don't see them paying to keep Nick. Nick is really good if Phil Jackson commented on his trash talking. I know very little about CBA matters and am speaking from what I have seen time and again when I say they will let another team acquire Nick, but they'll resign Thornton on the cheap.

CCJ, that's really a ridiculous analogy and you should know it.

The Wizards let Haywood walk because they were rebuilding. It was better to groom McGee to play alongside our young core than resign a 31-year-old Haywood to a $8M a year deal. I'm Haywood's #1 fan and even I realize that.

And I can guaranted that Thornton won't be resigned unless it's for a 1-year deal or unless it's for something ridiculously cheap (like less than $2M a year).

The Wizards will try and keep Nick Young and my guess is that they'll extend a pretty decent offer on the first day of free agency. They'll only let Young walk if someone else extends a truly ridiculous offer. I hope EG is working on Young's agent right now to try and convince him that Young is a better fit here than anywhere else in the league.

[fishercob]

I hope EG is working on Young's agent right now.....

Let that mental image simmer for Rico a little bit.

[Ruzious]

The wild card - and really the biggest issue - is what kind of money Young's going to get offered; I can definitely say that if he'd get anything like what would be 5 years @ $40 million (or the equivalent under the next CBA), I'm squarely coming down on the "trade Nick!" side of things.

Considering that a lot of teams blew their wad on the Summer of 2010 and with a potentially stricter salary cap on the horizon, $8M per year for Nick Young seems unlikely IMO. When it's all said and done he's still going to be just a complimentary scorer on a bad team. Maybe he gets the max number of years, but I don't think the dollar figure will be high.

I'm crossing my fingers that you are correct. One thing that concerns me is the numbers he is putting up so far. As of now, there are only 12 guys in the league who score as much as Nick on a per-minute basis with a TS% equal or greater. If he keeps this up all year, a fair case can be made that he's a serviceable #1 offensive threat on any team, and a high quality #2 offensive threat on any team. Throw in the fact that he's a two way player and one might consider him to be a, gulp, star-caliber player.

Stats aside, you know... no team considers Nick a legit #1 scoring option. Teams know that he doesn't help his team when he's not making shots. He doesn't do anything else consistently. People keep saying he's a very good defender. What matters is if he's a very good team defender, and he's not. We still see him not fighting through screens. There are still consistency issues. All it takes is one team to be stupid, but if Nick gets more than 5/30, I'll be surprised. If he gets an offer in the 5/40 area - Nick, seeyabye.

[tontoz]

I hope EG is working on Young's agent right now.....

Let that mental image simmer for Rico a little bit.

That is just wrong.

[nate33]

Stats aside, you know... no team considers Nick a legit #1 scoring option. Teams know that he doesn't help his team when he's not making shots. He doesn't do anything else consistently. People keep saying he's a very good defender. What matters is if he's a very good team defender, and he's not. We still see him not fighting through screens. There are still consistency issues. All it takes is one team to be stupid, but if Nick gets more than 5/30, I'll be surprised. If he gets an offer in the 5/40 area - Nick, seeyabye.

I agree that that is the general opinion on Young right now. But if he does what he has been doing for an entire season while playing 36 minutes a game, that opinion is going to change. People like "glory stats" and points per game is the biggest glory stat of all. If Young can post 20 points per game with efficiency, people WILL notice. (I'll readily cede that this is a big "if". I'm skeptical that Young can maintain this efficiency as teams try to key on him more and more.)

Oh and the statistical data belies your assertion of Young's team defense. For 3 years, the Wizards have played significantly better defense as a team when Young is on the floor. Two years ago, Young improved the defense by 6.9 points per 100 possessions. Last year, he improved it by 1.6. This year, he improves it by 3.0. This year, with Young on the floor, the team forces opponents to shoot 1.8% worse from the floor, they force 2 more turnovers per 100 possessions, and the Wizards actually rebound better on the defensive glass. On/off data is certainly "noisy", but 3 years is a pretty solid trend which has statistical significance.