ronnymac2 wrote:My problem is this be-all-end-all conclusion through stats that Bryant isn't good in elimination games. My problem isn't even what that says about a Bryant vs. Malone comparison; my problem is simply what that says about Bryant, period.
My problem is people concluding that the statistical information is a be-all-end-all. I'm not going to qualify every sentence I write down to the most rudimentary level. Heck, that's why I'm creating references on that blog to some of the more basic ideas of basketball analysis.
The idea is one I feel strongly about: individual performance is heavily conflated with team performance in sports. We have cognitive biases that remember more good ("clutch") performances in wins and wash away the ones in losses. Malone and Bryant are the two highest profile players that support that to me, and I'm throwing out a piece of information to challenge it.
So you're arguing that two perceived polar opposites in terms of clutch play (or at least, effectiveness in elimination games) aren't actually polar opposites at all, but are very close to each other in that regard (both are good-to-very good, not "one is AMAZING and the other a CHOKER"). And you've deconstructed the "Why?" question, positing that Malone was given that unfair,incorrect "Choker" label and Bryant was given that unfair, incorrect "Clutch killer assassin dominant awesome" label because of team result (Jazz usually lost, Lakers usually won).
If that's the case, then I fully agree with your deconstruction of those perceptions.
I do think a contributing factors are likability/team and overall stats in the playoffs. Malone's stats went down overall in the playoffs, and the media jumped in and nailed Karl with that, especially after he had a clunker as a controversial MVP winner against the one and only Michael Jordan in 1997. He also lost in two consecutive NBA Finals to a storybook, legendary Chicago team. The last minute of the 98 Finals doesn't help his case (in the public eye, that is).
Also, Bryant is the more exciting player, and his placement on a darling NBA team as its leader and exciting player gives him some additional backing/attention. In the media, Bryant is modeled as a Jordan-type player, meaning his clutch times and competitive streak and ballsy-ness get highlighted, and his failures probably don't get as much hype as Malone's.
Those are contributing factors. Like you posit, the main factor is the team result.
That said- and this might be nit-picking, but whatever- you need to take a more nuanced look at Bryant's individual elimination games. Like these.............
[/quote]The only times I feel Bryant sucked were in 03 and 04. 03 wasn't even that bad, and he played pretty well for the whole series against SA, a series in which Bryant and O'neal had to do ALL the heavy lifting (and Bryant did it injured, too). 04, no excuse. He was awful the entire series. Other than that, win or lose, I think Bryant played to the best of his considerable abilities for each given game.
Check it out:
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/columns/story?id=5195953
Well, you're actually one of my favorite posters, but I find it hard to believe that you thought his play in 06, 08 (G6), or Game 7 last year was good. C'mon.
2006: He stands idly 27 times by my count in the second half. I've never seen a superstar do this. Watch the half again.
2008: Something like 16 of his 22 shots are deep jumpers. He doesn't create much. He gets burned on defense. He just doesn't play well. There's no other real way to describe it. The notion that the game became a blowout is independent of that.
2010: Frankly, one of the worst first half performances I've ever seen. Firing fadeaways while double-teamed off the side of the backboard? As a result, his overall game was just bad. 6-24 4 TOV and shady defense is just bad.
Kudos for glasswork in the second half -- really, love to see that -- but if that is boosting the performance in your mind, then what did LeBron do in his last Cavs game? Play the game of the century? Of the millenium?
I actually thought Lebron played pretty damn well in game six. He dominated the glass and brought his team within striking distance in the fourth. If Mo Williams makes an absolutely wide open jumper from the free throw line, we might be saying how Lebron led a fourth quarter comeback in that game six. His teammates failed him, but I saw him play pretty well. Not his best game, but pretty well. People wonder why James went to Miami........
Kobe was fortunate enough last year to have teammates who could save his ass when he only plays pretty well, and not exceptional. Artest and Fisher made huge plays in the fourth, and then Kobe came through with some big plays, and the Lakers won. The respective games by James and Bryant were comparable I'd say. Both played pretty well, though neither was at their best. Kobe WAS fortunate enough to have better support from his teammates. Still, Kobe should be credited with playing pretty well in a game 7- win or lose.
With regards to 08, yeah, that's another stinker. Put it as a stinker. His play wasn't the reason LA lost though, as Boston annihilated LA on all cylinders in that game. Still, a stinker for Bryant.
I still have a problem with counting 06 as bad. He just dropped 50 in game six, yet his team can't get a rebound and they lose again. Bryant would obviously be hesitant to try and score a million points on this team since it's clear the Lakers can't defeat PHX when Bryant goes off. Bryant kept them within striking distance (I guess) with a second quarter explosion. He then tried to make a mature decision and initiate, get his guys involved. He knew shooting six threes a quarter the rest of the way wasn't going to produce a comeback. He tried calling on his teammates for help, and they failed. He tried to be aggressive-Kobe is spurts, but it was too late by then. PHX's offense was clicking too well.
If Kobe's teammates had helped him pull off a comeback, we'd be saying how amazingly patient Kobe was, how he had finally grown up and matured as a leader in 2006 in THAT game 7. But they failed. Like Lebron's team failed him in game six in 2010.
You want to talk perception? Kobe WAS at his peak in 2006. He knew how to play team ball in that PHX series. Look how the Lakers even got the friggin series to seven games. That was the best I've ever seen Kobe play despite what the stats say, and I've been watching the dude for a decade now. All this talk about how 06 Kobe couldn't lead the current Lakers to titles is crap. Give 06 Bryant his current supporting cast and he would never score 81 or drop 35 ppg, but he'd have his team in the finals. That perception that Kobe matured when his team started winning is ludicrous.
Bryant's 06 and 10 elimination games were not clunkers. They weren't his greatest games, but he did his best. His team failed him once and helped him once. Individually, regardless of team result (or putting it out of the picture to the best of my ability), I'll take what he gave his team those nights.