Game Thread: Raptors @ Wizards (1-15-11)

[Hoopalotta]

Well, what is their percentage and ranking from 16 feet in? I bet they suck at that too.

As it so happens.....

Thing is, the 10-23 foot range is hit at an average rate of about 39% league-wide (composite), while inside 10' is 43.5%, at the rim is 63% and the three balls are at .54% (by EFG%).

So it's not a high percentage part of the floor even if we're poor in other 'better spots' too. Even if we were bellow average inside and from 3, we'd still be more efficient (theoretically) if we went there.

It seems we have a bit of a convergence of personnel and coaching there, which is probably not a coincidence.

[clancy]

Well, what is their percentage and ranking from 16 feet in? I bet they suck at that too.

Team shooting stats by location (games through 1/8)

At rim - 61.6%
<10 - 43.7%
10-15 ft - 34.2
16-23 ft - 39.1
3 - 33.4% (50.2% eFG)

We are a bad shooting team relative to the rest of the NBA in every zone - but we're seriously hurting ourselves points-wise by taking so many shots from outside where the likelihood of making a shot is much lower.

[clancy]

Yeah, there are stats on that - 30.9% of our FGA's are long 2's, which is the second highest percentage in the NBA.

http://hoopdata.com/teamxefg.aspx

Well, that would have been a hell of a lot easier than adding up the shot attempts myself, but I'm glad to see I can still do basic math.

[Zonkerbl]

Well, what is their percentage and ranking from 16 feet in? I bet they suck at that too.

Team shooting stats by location (games through 1/8)

At rim - 61.6%
<10 - 43.7%
10-15 ft - 34.2
16-23 ft - 39.1
3 - 33.4% (50.2% eFG)

We are a bad shooting team relative to the rest of the NBA in every zone - but we're seriously hurting ourselves points-wise by taking so many shots from outside where the likelihood of making a shot is much lower.

Well, what is their percentage and ranking from 16 feet in? I bet they suck at that too.

As it so happens.....

Thing is, the 10-23 foot range is hit at an average rate of about 39% league-wide (composite), while inside 10' is 43.5%, at the rim is 63% and the three balls are at .54% (by EFG%).

So it's not a high percentage part of the floor even if we're poor in other 'better spots' too. Even if we were bellow average inside and from 3, we'd still be more efficient (theoretically) if we went there.

It seems we have a bit of a convergence of personnel and coaching there, which is probably not a coincidence.

So the only part of the court where the zards are even at the league average is <10 feet, but not at the rim. So Blatche and Wall flipping up teardrops from close but not too close.

Very very interesting exchange with Wall at the end where he explained that Flip was asking him to be more aggressive getting to the rim, and he replied that's more greedy than is in his nature, if people are packing in the paint he's going to pass or shoot, not try to force it, and his shot just hasn't been there lately. If I'm Flip I'm thinking he'll at least draw more fouls and get the opponents' bigs into foul trouble, which will help unclog the middle. But making jump shots would also help.

[Hoopalotta]

There's that stat "expected effective field goal percentage", which accounts for how efficient you'd be shooting the league average from your chosen shot locations (that wouldn't account for fouls though, so you'd probably do better if you go inside a lot).

We're 29th in the league there and we shoot under the league average from almost everywhere.

That we're bad from just about everywhere doesn't point to great upside with the roster as constructed, but we are making it worse with shot selection.

[clancy]

That we're bad from just about everywhere doesn't point to great upside with the roster as constructed, but we are making it worse with shot selection.

We would be better, though, if some of our lowest percentage shooters weren't also such high usage guys. I mean, I realize you create issues with shooting percentages dropping if you try to make someone not equipped to be a high usage guy take additional shots. On the other hand, Dray and John attempt more shots on average than anyone else on the team, while shooting among the worst percentages. A smallish shift in shot attempts by player could have a big impact on team stats.

[hands11]

Wall seems to be the one guy not benefitting from Saunders. I think some of that has to do with Kirk Hinrich.

Flip teaches and wants a certain system to be implemented. I think the losses due to playing his system when that doesn't necessarily meet the skill set of John Wall--those losses are mostly on Flip IMO. I think playing Blatche too many minutes and reflexively not playing McGee are Flip's fault. I think the team being a jump shooting team is mostly Flip's fault. But none of those matter if Flip is helping players actually improve. Neither does throwing players under the bus or not being a great chemistry coach who's supportive. Flip's not a player's coach, but that's not the thing that matters.

Flip's system is heavily dependent on the point guard successfully running the pick and roll. Heck, most offenses except the Triangle and Princeton are heavily based on the screen-and-roll with the PG. Wall can't do it because he can't shoot. His man just goes behind the pick, ceding the 18-foot jumper to Wall. The problem is Wall, not Flip.

The only other option is to run a spread formation of some sort and let Wall go to work without a high screen. The problem is, McGee isn't a credible jumpshooter so whoever is guarding him will cheat into the lane to shut Wall down. Bottom line: it's real hard to run an offense if neither your PG or C can shoot. The Celtics manage to do it because Rondo passes better than Wall off the screen (even though his man often goes under the screen) and because the Celtics have a top 5 shooter at SG, at top 5 shooter at SF, and a top 5 shooter at PF.

Yes, yes, yes.

So Wall needs to learn from what Rondo is doing while he works on his J.

Actually, AT has been helping a lot lately. If he was just more consistent. Now image if we actually has someone like Wilson Chandler in that slot.

As for a top 5 SG. Nick is doing well filling those shoes.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/avgPoints/position/shooting-guards

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/fieldGoalPct/position/shooting-guards

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/threePointFieldGoalPct/position/shooting-guards

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/freeThrowPct/position/shooting-guards

[Kanyewest]

I'm not a Kirk fan, but he should be leading to closeout, Wall is looking really shaky in the half-set in the recent possessions.

Hinirich was pretty bad today. 1 for 8 from the field with ill advised shots leading to fast break points. Only 2 assists and 1 turnover as well.

[Kanyewest]

As for Flip's rotations, I'm not complaining much. I felt he left Young a little bit too long for 1 stretch (from the begining of the second until 9 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. I didn't mind when Young was subbed in a few minutes later since Hinrich was taking ill advised shots that were leading to fast break points for the Raptors.

[dobrojim]

Yo Javale kills me. Great play on one series, and then blows his assignment the next. Is that Flip's fault?

It always is around here...

Javale has 10 points, 11 rebounds, 6 blocks in 25 minutes.

John Wall is not as good as Calderon ... not tonight, any way.

Calderon has 19 points, 14 assists, 9 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block. His best stat: 1 turnover. 14/1 assist:turnover ratio.

Wizards are going to win, and I don't get the McGee hate at all. If Wall were as good as advertised that would help Flip, but that's not Flip's fault, either.

his shooting % wasn't that bad either - he took Wall's lunch money and laughed
at him. Kip did a little better but not that much. I called in on the post game
show and commented on how efficient opposing 1s have been against us lately.

re Wall's jumper - he's clearly slumping right now as is Ken, but I don't
think it's as bad as many are saying. He's had games where his J has been
pretty good

[dobrojim]

the mechanics of wall's shot is good, but he doesn't elevate enough and isn't consistent enough.

I agree with this. I think his mechanics are good..he just doesn't jump high enough. And I believe that's just the result of low confidence. Wall will be OK..the only (good) PG I remember coming in the NBA with a jump shot in recent years is CP3. Everybody else eventually developed one..as will Wall. But I will say I am very disappointed in his defense. He's terrible on that end of the floor. But hes young, most players start D'ing up after their rookie season.

Rondo has a jump shot? Awesome player but no J that I can recall.

[dobrojim]

The single biggest problem I have with Flip is he's a coach who lives on the relatively long jumper.

I think Seraphin's a brute and Booker can be a bruiser. Those guys score near the rim and need to play a bunch more. McGee should be throwing down dunks. Blatche gets a lot of hate, but he's also forced to take more (jump) shots and play more minutes than he should. Instead of all those jumpers, Flip would do himself and the team a world of good if he'd work a big man-big man passing game, where a big gets a close shot rather than a jumper. I'd love to see Seraphin catching passes at the basket--passes from Blatche.

I think the Wizards are better than just a jump shooting game.

McGee got 3-4 dunks

I like KS getting minutes but he has not produced of late. The team has gone in the
toilet when he's been on the floor. Book, not quite so bad, but Dray and Yi both
had decent games tonight so Book sat. Nothing wrong with that.

[dobrojim]

ugly stat: john wall fta vs toronto. zero.

add that to Caulderon's statline

[tontoz]

the mechanics of wall's shot is good, but he doesn't elevate enough and isn't consistent enough.

I agree with this. I think his mechanics are good..he just doesn't jump high enough. And I believe that's just the result of low confidence. Wall will be OK..the only (good) PG I remember coming in the NBA with a jump shot in recent years is CP3. Everybody else eventually developed one..as will Wall. But I will say I am very disappointed in his defense. He's terrible on that end of the floor. But hes young, most players start D'ing up after their rookie season.

Rondo has a jump shot? Awesome player but no J that I can recall.

Rondo is shooting 45% from 16-23% this year.

@ hands saying Wall should play like Rondo. Wall is averaging 9 assists per game which punks Rondo's 1st two seasons and beats his 3rd season as well. And rondo passes to 3 HOF players while Wall plays on a team that struggles to make shots from anywhere.

If anything Wall needs to be more aggressive looking for his own shot.

[hands11]

The jump shooting does get old - we are 1st in attempts from 16-23 feet (but only 15th in fg%), yet 18th in 3-pt attempts. The 3s are probably a good thing, though, because we're all of 26th in fg% there. We're also only 20th in assisted shots from 16-23 feet.

All of which says that is a really dumb shot for us to be relying upon. But if my math is right, over 30% of our shot attempts come in that 16-23 foot range.

Yeah, there are stats on that - 30.9% of our FGA's are long 2's, which is the second highest percentage in the NBA.

http://hoopdata.com/teamxefg.aspx

We're dead average at 15th in our FG% on those shots at 39.1%

http://hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx

At least Yi's happy!

So why would someone design an offense like that ?

[hands11]

ugly stat: john wall fta vs toronto. zero.

That must be a first for the year. Hey, I didn't want him jacking 19 shots a game but he still needs to close the gap and drive and draw the fouls.

I just hope he keep practicing his shot and hopefully watching some Rondo, Nash videos.

He will be alright. Getting through this rut is a good learning lesson for him.

[Hoopalotta]

The jump shooting does get old - we are 1st in attempts from 16-23 feet (but only 15th in fg%), yet 18th in 3-pt attempts. The 3s are probably a good thing, though, because we're all of 26th in fg% there. We're also only 20th in assisted shots from 16-23 feet.

All of which says that is a really dumb shot for us to be relying upon. But if my math is right, over 30% of our shot attempts come in that 16-23 foot range.

Yeah, there are stats on that - 30.9% of our FGA's are long 2's, which is the second highest percentage in the NBA.

http://hoopdata.com/teamxefg.aspx

We're dead average at 15th in our FG% on those shots at 39.1%

http://hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx

At least Yi's happy!

So why would someone design an offense like that ?

I'm just the messenger.