Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[Ruzious]

I don't think Green comes out unless he's guaranteed to be a 1st rounder.

Another player who's under the radar now like Green is UConn's Alex Oriakhi. He's still filling out. He's got a lot of similarities to Okafor - though he's perhaps a year behind how quickly Okafor developed. Raw but showing lots of improvement. Maybe a thinner Seraphin with a little more quickness is the best way to describe him.

[The Consiglieri]

Perry Jones is an intriguing prospect. I'm watching him for the first time tonight against Kansas. There is a lot to like, however, a lot of red flags. Offensively he looks like he could be a very good pro, although probably not dominate. He's explosive, has incredibly long arms, aware and alert offensively, good handles, quick first step, and a fluid smooth shot. In the first half he put up 14 points against a good KU team. He looks to be at least 6'10" and his wing-span is pretty impressive.

That said, he's one of the the worst defensive big in college. He doesn't rotate well, doesn't body his man, gets backed down way too easily, doesn't hold position, doesn't attempt to block out for rebounds, and surprisingly isn't a shot blocker. He lacks any semblance of court awareness defensively. Also, he doesn't appear to have any post game at this point nor the strength to develop a post game for the reasonable future. He's as raw as Blatche was when he was drafted in 2005, but with much more potential becasue of explosiveness and quickness.

He has more star potential than any other player in the NCAA's IMO. He's the absolute classic EG pick because he's long, athletic and brimming with potential. In spite of his weaknesses I'd probably consider him the top prospect in the draft--mainly because a poor class.

Currently he's a lock to go #1. All this can certainly change, but for now he's locked in at #1 whenever i dig around for what people are saying in terms of the draft, so considering how frightening he might be with the wiz, for now, he's a helluva long shot to land here considering our record and liklihood of winning the lottery again. Depressing to see all the issues, Im not high on Sullinger either, and he sounds like the classic guy available when we pick who will never be great or probably even good at the next level, ceiling maybe, above average. Hope Im wrong, because it wouldnt surprise me if he was the guy at our slot.

[closg00]

I haven't seen to-much discussion of who folks like for 2nd round picks. I'd love to see us pick-up Nolan Smith if he drops to us.

[Ruzious]

I haven't seen to-much discussion of who folks like for 2nd round picks. I'd love to see us pick-up Nolan Smith if he drops to us.

I could see him being a Hinrich-like player in the NBA. I've pretty much given up hope in getting a good 2nd rounder in this draft because of 2 things: 1 is the CBA issues - a lot of the mid to late 1st round type talent might decide to stay in school because of uncertainties. 2 is - it's just not a real strong draft in quantity or quality.

[fishercob]

I haven't seen to-much discussion of who folks like for 2nd round picks. I'd love to see us pick-up Nolan Smith if he drops to us.

I could see him being a Hinrich-like player in the NBA. I've pretty much given up hope in getting a good 2nd rounder in this draft because of 2 things: 1 is the CBA issues - a lot of the mid to late 1st round type talent might decide to stay in school because of uncertainties. 2 is - it's just not a real strong draft in quantity or quality.

I'm still not clear on this. Larry Walke says that this year's draft is under the current CBA, and draft pay scale. So if anything happens to make rookies worse off in the new CBA, there'd be incentive for more guys to come out now, not less.

The other thing is that there's been talk of the union making some concessions in exchange of the owners dropping the age restriction. If that's the case and we're going to get a bunch of HS guys declaring for the '12 draft, it would seem that any marginal/borderline guys would have greater incentive to come out this year.

I would agree that at this point there doesn't readily appear to be any (let alone many) franchise players at the top of the draft. But I have no idea about how deep this draft is or could be.

[Ruzious]

Fish, even if they do get paid, they might get stuck with no place to play - so they can't hone their skills. At least in college, they can improve their game and status. I agree that the top 10 or so players will likely come out regardless.

[fishercob]

Fish, even if they do get paid, they might get stuck with no place to play - so they can't hone their skills. At least in college, they can improve their game and status. I agree that the top 10 or so players will likely come out regardless.

I bet agents will sponsor "academies" like IMG does.

[theboomking]

Perry Jones is an intriguing prospect. I'm watching him for the first time tonight against Kansas. There is a lot to like, however, a lot of red flags. Offensively he looks like he could be a very good pro, although probably not dominate. He's explosive, has incredibly long arms, aware and alert offensively, good handles, quick first step, and a fluid smooth shot. In the first half he put up 14 points against a good KU team. He looks to be at least 6'10" and his wing-span is pretty impressive.

That said, he's one of the the worst defensive big in college. He doesn't rotate well, doesn't body his man, gets backed down way too easily, doesn't hold position, doesn't attempt to block out for rebounds, and surprisingly isn't a shot blocker. He lacks any semblance of court awareness defensively. Also, he doesn't appear to have any post game at this point nor the strength to develop a post game for the reasonable future. He's as raw as Blatche was when he was drafted in 2005, but with much more potential becasue of explosiveness and quickness.

He has more star potential than any other player in the NCAA's IMO. He's the absolute classic EG pick because he's long, athletic and brimming with potential. In spite of his weaknesses I'd probably consider him the top prospect in the draft--mainly because a poor class.

Currently he's a lock to go #1. All this can certainly change, but for now he's locked in at #1 whenever i dig around for what people are saying in terms of the draft, so considering how frightening he might be with the wiz, for now, he's a helluva long shot to land here considering our record and liklihood of winning the lottery again. Depressing to see all the issues, Im not high on Sullinger either, and he sounds like the classic guy available when we pick who will never be great or probably even good at the next level, ceiling maybe, above average. Hope Im wrong, because it wouldnt surprise me if he was the guy at our slot.

He's no lock. Kyrie Irving was destroying the field before his injury, and if he can come back late in the season and play at the same level, I'd expect Irving to go #1. ESPN's draft "guru's" have written about multiple poll's of NBA scouts/GM's, and state that this year, there is no consensus #1. Some have Kanter, yes, Kanter as the #1, some have Perry Jones, some have Irving, and a bit earlier in the season, some still had Barnes. I think that Jones is a lock top 3 pick, which could still give us a shot.

I agree that Sullinger worries me a bit. We are already thick with PF's in Blatche, Seraphin and Booker, and I'm while I think that Sullinger will be a good NBA rebounder, he doesn't look like he'll be an elite defender, and I'm not sure how his offensive game will translate.

[fishercob]

Perry Jones is an intriguing prospect. I'm watching him for the first time tonight against Kansas. There is a lot to like, however, a lot of red flags. Offensively he looks like he could be a very good pro, although probably not dominate. He's explosive, has incredibly long arms, aware and alert offensively, good handles, quick first step, and a fluid smooth shot. In the first half he put up 14 points against a good KU team. He looks to be at least 6'10" and his wing-span is pretty impressive.

That said, he's one of the the worst defensive big in college. He doesn't rotate well, doesn't body his man, gets backed down way too easily, doesn't hold position, doesn't attempt to block out for rebounds, and surprisingly isn't a shot blocker. He lacks any semblance of court awareness defensively. Also, he doesn't appear to have any post game at this point nor the strength to develop a post game for the reasonable future. He's as raw as Blatche was when he was drafted in 2005, but with much more potential becasue of explosiveness and quickness.

He has more star potential than any other player in the NCAA's IMO. He's the absolute classic EG pick because he's long, athletic and brimming with potential. In spite of his weaknesses I'd probably consider him the top prospect in the draft--mainly because a poor class.

Currently he's a lock to go #1. All this can certainly change, but for now he's locked in at #1 whenever i dig around for what people are saying in terms of the draft, so considering how frightening he might be with the wiz, for now, he's a helluva long shot to land here considering our record and liklihood of winning the lottery again. Depressing to see all the issues, Im not high on Sullinger either, and he sounds like the classic guy available when we pick who will never be great or probably even good at the next level, ceiling maybe, above average. Hope Im wrong, because it wouldnt surprise me if he was the guy at our slot.

He's no lock. Kyrie Irving was destroying the field before his injury, and if he can come back late in the season and play at the same level, I'd expect Irving to go #1. ESPN's draft "guru's" have written about multiple poll's of NBA scouts/GM's, and state that this year, there is no consensus #1. Some have Kanter, yes, Kanter as the #1, some have Perry Jones, some have Irving, and a bit earlier in the season, some still had Barnes. I think that Jones is a lock top 3 pick, which could still give us a shot.

I agree that Sullinger worries me a bit. We are already thick with PF's in Blatche, Seraphin and Booker, and I'm while I think that Sullinger will be a good NBA rebounder, he doesn't look like he'll be an elite defender, and I'm not sure how his offensive game will translate.

I wouldn't bypass the best player available because he's a PF. The Wizards have prospects there, yes, but they also have a ton of question marks. The only position I'd actively avoid using a high pick for is a PG.

I'm not arguing for Sullinger -- I have no idea, and share the same concerns about his length, athleticism and defense. But I dunno, maybe he's another Kevin Love and is a great long term piece here. And maybe you can never win a title with him as your second best player. I dunno. But the Wizards should take the guy they think is best, period.

[pancakes3]

i've never really understood the hard line "best player available" vs "position of need" debate. why not "best player available, if that best player is better than who you've got at that position" ?

[Ruzious]

It bothers me that Sullinger looks 3 inches shorter than Perry Jones in a video I saw of them together. That makes him 6'8ish; rather than the 6'9.5 that Love measured at. Plus, he doesn't have Love's great passing and 3 point shooting range. He's more Boozeresque - and Boozer's also taller and longer than Sullinger. Sullinger will score and rebound in the NBA, but he's not a great prospect. Jones has a ton more potential, but he lacks the mental toughness that Sullinger has. Jones has done just enough to make himself the #1 pick - in a horrible draft. Irving has to be #2. Then - who knows? On Kanter, it's unfortunate that he's basically let Calipari waste his season. He's got to find a way to showcase his talents.

[The Consiglieri]

Perry Jones is an intriguing prospect. I'm watching him for the first time tonight against Kansas. There is a lot to like, however, a lot of red flags. Offensively he looks like he could be a very good pro, although probably not dominate. He's explosive, has incredibly long arms, aware and alert offensively, good handles, quick first step, and a fluid smooth shot. In the first half he put up 14 points against a good KU team. He looks to be at least 6'10" and his wing-span is pretty impressive.

That said, he's one of the the worst defensive big in college. He doesn't rotate well, doesn't body his man, gets backed down way too easily, doesn't hold position, doesn't attempt to block out for rebounds, and surprisingly isn't a shot blocker. He lacks any semblance of court awareness defensively. Also, he doesn't appear to have any post game at this point nor the strength to develop a post game for the reasonable future. He's as raw as Blatche was when he was drafted in 2005, but with much more potential becasue of explosiveness and quickness.

He has more star potential than any other player in the NCAA's IMO. He's the absolute classic EG pick because he's long, athletic and brimming with potential. In spite of his weaknesses I'd probably consider him the top prospect in the draft--mainly because a poor class.

Currently he's a lock to go #1. All this can certainly change, but for now he's locked in at #1 whenever i dig around for what people are saying in terms of the draft, so considering how frightening he might be with the wiz, for now, he's a helluva long shot to land here considering our record and liklihood of winning the lottery again. Depressing to see all the issues, Im not high on Sullinger either, and he sounds like the classic guy available when we pick who will never be great or probably even good at the next level, ceiling maybe, above average. Hope Im wrong, because it wouldnt surprise me if he was the guy at our slot.

He's no lock. Kyrie Irving was destroying the field before his injury, and if he can come back late in the season and play at the same level, I'd expect Irving to go #1. ESPN's draft "guru's" have written about multiple poll's of NBA scouts/GM's, and state that this year, there is no consensus #1. Some have Kanter, yes, Kanter as the #1, some have Perry Jones, some have Irving, and a bit earlier in the season, some still had Barnes. I think that Jones is a lock top 3 pick, which could still give us a shot.

I agree that Sullinger worries me a bit. We are already thick with PF's in Blatche, Seraphin and Booker, and I'm while I think that Sullinger will be a good NBA rebounder, he doesn't look like he'll be an elite defender, and I'm not sure how his offensive game will translate.

Perhaps Lock was bad diction. Currently, among the players available, Perry is nearly across the board, seen as the #1, when I said, of course this could change, i was trying to imply that there's still half of the college hoops season to play, and a ton can happen there, and as you said, Irving would likely go #1. There's just a ton of smoke suggesting that with the injury and a potential lock out, and all those issues, word of mouth is that he's much more likely to not be available in this draft, than that he will be, if he isn't available, currently Perry is the definitive guy at 1 for the bulk of people I've heard talk about it. Can it change. Absolutely. But for now, Perry is locked in in that slot. Definitely could change, if his play goes downhill, if others blow up in the second half, and if Irving comes out, but right now Perry is generally seen as most likely to be #1 overall.

It's not that we are filled with PF's that botheres me with Sullinger, we are, but I don't think any of them are special or great, the problem is there's nothing about Sullinger that suggests he'd be significantly better at PF. I'd take an elite PF if he was available, in a second, it just looks like we may not be able to get one in this draft, for now anyway. I'll take solace in the fact that Nick Young has become a player this year that none of us really counted on him becoming, and that's almost like we landed a stud SG in the draft, and have another likely top 6 or top 8 pick to work with. NY playing as he is, has changed the complexion of our team quite a bit, we can now focus on building the front court exclusively and not worry about the point or 2.

[no D in Hibachi]

It bothers me that Sullinger looks 3 inches shorter than Perry Jones in a video I saw of them together. That makes him 6'8ish; rather than the 6'9.5 that Love measured at. Plus, he doesn't have Love's great passing and 3 point shooting range. He's more Boozeresque - and Boozer's also taller and longer than Sullinger. Sullinger will score and rebound in the NBA, but he's not a great prospect. Jones has a ton more potential, but he lacks the mental toughness that Sullinger has. Jones has done just enough to make himself the #1 pick - in a horrible draft. Irving has to be #2. Then - who knows? On Kanter, it's unfortunate that he's basically let Calipari waste his season. He's got to find a way to showcase his talents.

Sullinger actually reminds me of Big Baby Davis. They have remarkably similar bodies and games. Sullinger isn't as big as Boozer or Love and doesn't have their elite skill either. Big Baby is a good player, but he's not a top 5 lotto selection type player.

[Ruzious]

It bothers me that Sullinger looks 3 inches shorter than Perry Jones in a video I saw of them together. That makes him 6'8ish; rather than the 6'9.5 that Love measured at. Plus, he doesn't have Love's great passing and 3 point shooting range. He's more Boozeresque - and Boozer's also taller and longer than Sullinger. Sullinger will score and rebound in the NBA, but he's not a great prospect. Jones has a ton more potential, but he lacks the mental toughness that Sullinger has. Jones has done just enough to make himself the #1 pick - in a horrible draft. Irving has to be #2. Then - who knows? On Kanter, it's unfortunate that he's basically let Calipari waste his season. He's got to find a way to showcase his talents.

Sullinger actually reminds me of Big Baby Davis. They have remarkably similar bodies and games. Sullinger isn't as big as Boozer or Love and doesn't have their elite skill either. Big Baby is a good player, but he's not a top 5 lotto selection type player.

There are similarities there. Big Baby was a much more perimeter-oriented player at LSU - which was a big knock on him. Otoh, Sullinger uses his wide body very well at a young age. Tiny Gallon was probably a better comparison to Big Baby. Tiny could have used 2 more years in college.

[theboomking]

I agree with the others here, that my problem with Sullinger is that I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he would be over what we have. One of the biggest advantages of Sullinger over what we have, is that he is a high basketball IQ type player, which we've had a shortage of in DC. Sullinger is also a physical offensive presence in the post, which is something that we don't really have on our roster unless Seraphin progresses.

I think Sullinger would be better at boxing out, rebounding, setting picks, and passing. I don't think he would be as good a scorer as Blatche however, may not be as good a defender as the Blatche of recent weeks, and, Blatche has been rebounding better. My real question is, how much higher would Sullinger push our ceiling? I would argue that ideally we'd like a player that could really create a visible improvemene if we are choosing high in the Lotto. I'm just not sure Sullinger is that guy.

[pcbothwel]

Our pick is most likely in the 5-8 range accounting for the possiblity our team shows even a modest ability to win on the road.The top 10 players at this time are probably K. Irving, P. Jones, Kanter, Sullinger, T. Jones, K. Walker, J. Valanciunas, H. Barnes, D. Williams, and D. Montiejunas.
Irving wont be there and Walker is another pg we dont need.
One if not both T. Jones and P. Jones will be gone, as will one if not both of Kanter/Sullinger.
I think our draft board will be between Barnes (who i think is very talented and will be a solid pro), D. Williams, J. Valanciunas, and which ever one of the four just mentioned fall....so
I think we got a good deal by getting the #1 pick last year with one clear cut pick (Wall) and be getting a 5-10 pick in a draft that he no clear top talent(other than a hurt Irving at a position we dont need).
BTW, Valanciunas and D. Williams are my late lotto sleepers who will rise fast once people truely see what they have to offer. Keep in mind that Williams is the same age as a Freshman.

[theboomking]

Our pick is most likely in the 5-8 range accounting for the possiblity our team shows even a modest ability to win on the road.The top 10 players at this time are probably K. Irving, P. Jones, Kanter, Sullinger, T. Jones, K. Walker, J. Valanciunas, H. Barnes, D. Williams, and D. Montiejunas.
Irving wont be there and Walker is another pg we dont need.
One if not both T. Jones and P. Jones will be gone, as will one if not both of Kanter/Sullinger.
I think our draft board will be between Barnes (who i think is very talented and will be a solid pro), D. Williams, J. Valanciunas, and which ever one of the four just mentioned fall....so
I think we got a good deal by getting the #1 pick last year with one clear cut pick (Wall) and be getting a 5-10 pick in a draft that he no clear top talent(other than a hurt Irving at a position we dont need).
BTW, Valanciunas and D. Williams are my late lotto sleepers who will rise fast once people truely see what they have to offer. Keep in mind that Williams is the same age as a Freshman.

I agree we were more lucky to choose first last year than we would be this year. That said, we are currently 5th in wins with 12. Around us are:

Milwaukee/Detroit 15
Toronto 13
New Jersey 11
Minnesta 10
Sacremento 9
Cleveland 8

We have 20 really tough games coming up on the schedule, and could easily be in the 2nd or 3rd spot after this next stretch, so to put us from 5 to 8 may be pessimistic, or optomistic depending on how you look at it.

I guess my point is, that I would like a shot at Perry Jones, but that is unlikely. Next on my list is probably Enes Kanter if his knees check out. We have basically no offensive presence at center beyond alley oops and clean up baskets. Kanter would be a huge upgrade in this area, on the boards and with regards to basketball IQ in general, whether we're talking defensive rotations or passing. We have a great shot at Kanter choosing from 3 to 5, but probably almost none from 6 to 8.

I really don't love Jones and Williams as an undersized PF who scores well but isn't a great rebounder or defender, doesn't necessarily fill a need. I hope we aren't bad enough for the lotto, but good enough to be choosing out of the top5.

[Ruzious]

Our pick is most likely in the 5-8 range accounting for the possiblity our team shows even a modest ability to win on the road.The top 10 players at this time are probably K. Irving, P. Jones, Kanter, Sullinger, T. Jones, K. Walker, J. Valanciunas, H. Barnes, D. Williams, and D. Montiejunas.
Irving wont be there and Walker is another pg we dont need.
One if not both T. Jones and P. Jones will be gone, as will one if not both of Kanter/Sullinger.
I think our draft board will be between Barnes (who i think is very talented and will be a solid pro), D. Williams, J. Valanciunas, and which ever one of the four just mentioned fall....so
I think we got a good deal by getting the #1 pick last year with one clear cut pick (Wall) and be getting a 5-10 pick in a draft that he no clear top talent(other than a hurt Irving at a position we dont need).
BTW, Valanciunas and D. Williams are my late lotto sleepers who will rise fast once people truely see what they have to offer. Keep in mind that Williams is the same age as a Freshman.

2 very good choices, imo. Williams averages just about 20 points a game while taking just under 9 FG attempts a game. That's amazing. It's a combo of having a great shooting percentage and getting to the line a lot. And while he takes only about 1 3 point shot a game, he's made 74% of his attempts, so if he wasn't such a good inside scorer, he'd probably be doing real well as a 3 point shooter. If this guy could convert to playing SF, the sky might be the limit. If he works real hard at it, who knows? I haven't seen enough of him to tell, but he seems like a very good athlete. Instead of an undersized 4, he could be a big 3. Or, he could be a stretch 4. Either way, there's got to be a way to get big production out of a guy this efficient and athletic.

[willbcocks]

JV is the Lithuanian right? I haven't seen any prospects, college or international, play one minute, but of what I've read I like him in the 5-10 range.

I want to have a long team that plays defense and he seems to fit the bill.

[sashae]

Watching Sullinger against the Illini today... man, he's a great rebounder. Incredibly sticky hands, 6 boards 10 mins into the game. Great passer too.