seren wrote:I agree with Berger. We may see a decline in number of years but only by one year or so. I think most dramatic decline will be in salary exceptions like MLE and LLE. They may either go completely or be restricted in terms of years, ie to one or two year deals. Plus the cap will go down by adjustments to BRI. Another adjustment may be to help the teams to get out of contracts on out of court issues. Such as the case with Arenas.
Agree. Plus big market teams like the Knicks, Lakers, Celtics, etc. may agree to revenue sharing just to avoid a lockout.
I think one of the biggest things the players have going for them in CBA negotiations is that the owners are likely divided. Not all of them will want to see a lockout -- not when NBA interest is booming, and certain teams with a limited timeframe to win another championship won't want a work stoppage.
In '99, it was the players who were divided, not the owners, since the main concessions in that CBA were to cap the max salary for superstars and introduce the rookie scale. So it really only impacted the superstars and the rookies, a minority of the Players Union. None of the players this time around will want to see a hard cap, let alone a hard cap that's LOWER than the current soft cap. I'd wager the owners cave before the players do.