Statistical Analysis of Post-Trade Team: There is Hope!

[montestewart]

^
Same here. Saunders might not be the right coach for this crew, regardless of his track record, and I don't understand some of his in-game decisions (and I don't like the 3-guard looks, though I can understand why he might try it sometimes). I'm not against changing coaches. I'm just not sure a midseason change is called for at this point, and I think Saunders has tried to do some good things.

[Nivek]

Was going to edit, but montestewart agreed so I didn't want add. My thoughts on Flip are that he's a good coach, and that he's well-suited to coach this team with this collection of players. I see no reason to fire him.

That said, when the team hired Flip, I had hoped they'd pick Dave Joerger. If I thought a different coach could transmogrify this group into a winner, I'd support that change in a second. But, when I assess the players on the roster, I know that no coach is going to make a difference with this group.

[WizarDynasty]

And, by the way, the Wizards did have a former elite post player on their coaching staff a few years back. Patrick Ewing was on staff to tutor the bigs. Even with the tutelage of Ewing, Haywood never developed a good post game, Etan was never more than a show pony, and Kwame never developed at all.

We have outstanding young bigs bursting with offensive potential. Ewing would turn these kids into allstars.

Kwame, Haywood, and Etan had close to zero upside offensively due to poor coordination. Our young bigs have elite raw coordination that just needs to be honed by an experienced 7 footer with proven allstar post mechanics that they can see day to day with their own eyes.

We need a coach that can teach by example the proper angles on shots from the post that our players need in order to succeed against a 7 footer in real game time.

Post footwork is something that you imitate, you don't explain post footwork, and the angles successful against a 6-7 standing reach and force used against 215lb frame won't work for the angles against a 7-0 standing reach and 270lb frame which is what the players see in real games.

AGain some of you keep bringing up coaches that were great but couldn't demonstrate what they taught.
Our players have specialized area of basketball they need coaching in. Flip is not an expert at post footwork. Flip might be an overall good coach but he doesn't specialize in post footwork against 7 footers with 270lb frame.

We have a special area that we need a qualified expert to quickly accelerate our young bigs growth. Flip is general practictioner Doctor--he knows a little bit about everything but he surely wasn't well known for his ability to greatly improve his young bigs post foot work. We need a proven expert that has successfully improved young big nba players post footwork and shot angles in the post. it's a specialized coaching area and there aren't many coaches that have a strong resume in this particular area. Our team has to pay a premium since there aren't many coaches around that have a strong resume in the particular need that we have. in the longterm, paying that premium will pay for it since in longterm success playoff revenue, and increased fan base across the nation because of the continued success.

Gene does not have a strong resume of successfully working with young nba bigs and transforming their footwork from mediocre to elite. He doesn't have a strong resume of improving a young nba bigman ability to draw fouls in the post.

We have special requirement that we need our bigman coach to fulfill and there are only a handful of qualified player coaches that have resumes that showed that either they have experience improving young nba bigman post footwork to elite...or they themselves have demonstrated elite nba post footwork against 7 footers with a 270lb frame.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ: You seem to think some of us "love" Flip. Speaking for myself, I don't love him. What I'm reacting to are the sweeping pronouncements and cries for his job based on specious reasoning and insufficient evidence.

I don't have any means to quantify how much better the record of the Wizards would be if Nick had been SG for 35 minutes and if McGee played 35 minutes at C. Specious reasoning plus observation gives birth to theory. My theory is not playing McGee enough minutes is one reason Flip has done a poor job winning games.

My observations are the Wizards are 9.4 points better per 100 possessions when McGee is on the court. The team has a better effective field goal percentage and they hold opponents to a lower effective field goal percentage when McGee plays. When McGee plays they outscore opponents by one at the line per 100 possession. When Javale sits a huge disparity the line occurs. Instead of outscoring opponents by one, the Wizards give opponents an extra 7 free throw attempts and are outscored by 4. A five point per 100 possessions occurs at the line. Javale is playing exceptionally well but still routinely plays 24-28 minutes.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10WAS16.HTM

Hinrich OTOH is often on the court. He's played more minutes than McGee. He's been a net negative in points per 100 possessions, effective field goal percentage (eFG), and eFG allowed.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10WAS4.HTM

Why does he play so much, yet McGee gets pulled from games and discouraged from shooting?

Nivek, I don't wish to see a man fired, but I do think Flip should have at least five more wins. He's better since Lewis was acquired and has played SF. But where Flip CONSISTENTLY makes the same mistake is running small ball with Hinrich and Wall in, and with McGee on the bench. Flip sticks with the same lineups even when they repeatedly fail.

There is nothing specious about 0-20, Nivek.

[Ruzious]

I'd like McGee to play more minutes, as well, but I think that's a matter of... time and health. He is averaging 27 plus minutes a game. I know he's had some back problems that have limited him, and we know he's been limited by stamina problems in the past.

Hinrich has played a lot due to necessity. Wall's health has been iffy, and people here are questioning if he's over-used. We have 2 PG's on the roster, yet people here compain that both have been used too much. And Young is now getting 37-40 minutes most nights, so there's no issue about him not getting enough minutes. The only thing you can say is - should they decrease the minutes for the 3 guard lineups. Yeah, probably they should, but it's not a slam dunk that Pam's precious little boy can handle more minutes. I think it's a process - just like him figuring out that the 2 or 3 horrible looking shots (where he basically threw the ball rather than shot it) he took in Milwaukee were mistakes that he needs to work on.

[Nivek]

I agree completely with Ruz's post above.

I like +/- stats to a point, but we all know they're heavily contextual. When your primary backup is Hilton Armstrong, you're going to look better. When your team has to go small when you're on the bench, you're going to look better.

Would I like to see McGee play more? You bet. So would Flip. Flip's trying to take McGee through a process of understanding that he needs to learn how to play. Right now, he's posting some numbers and he's showing signs of improvement, but most of that improvement is based on experience plus physical ability. For McGee to make the leap we all want to see, he needs to improve his mental approach, and he needs to improve his mental approach. So, Flip takes him out of games when he sees lapses in concentration and/or boneheaded mistakes. The hope is that at some point, McGee will recognize that he needs to be mindful of the moment. That he'll remain mentally present and that he won't check out mentally after he's been on the floor for awhile. That he'll recognize the need to work on his actual basketball skills instead of doing pretty dunks. That's the hope.

As for 0-20 on the road -- why is that more significant than 12-8 at home? Why is losing games on the road a reason to fire the coach? Would things be different if they were 2-18? By what process does Flip go from a good coach at home to a horrifically awful coach who deserves to get fired when they travel? It's nonsense.

The team was built to lose this season. They're losing. What a shock.

[dobrojim]

I think McGee would play a lot closer to 30+ min a game
if he wouldn't start so many games off by committing 2 fouls
in the first 5 minutes

[tontoz]

I think McGee would play a lot closer to 30+ min a game
if he wouldn't start so many games off by committing 2 fouls
in the first 5 minutes

I love the way he starts walking to the bench as soon as he hears the whistle.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think McGee would play a lot closer to 30+ min a game
if he wouldn't start so many games off by committing 2 fouls
in the first 5 minutes

Jim, your great observation is worth a separate thread. McGee's fouls and minutes on the road have a lot to do with 0-20.

[AceDegenerate]

Yeah... so how about we update these stats?

[montestewart]

I think McGee would play a lot closer to 30+ min a game
if he wouldn't start so many games off by committing 2 fouls
in the first 5 minutes

I love the way he starts walking to the bench as soon as he hears the whistle.

In the Denver game he got to the bench before Saunders realized he had to come out and someone else had to come in.

[nate33]

Yeah... so how about we update these stats?

Even your trolling is pathetic. I've already updated the numbers back on page 12 and stated that the good stretch of defense was little more than a fluke.

By the way, the premise of this thread appears to have been proven false. We had a good stretch of defensive games, but it was only a fluke. Our defensive rating over the last 7 games has been as follows:

118.5 @ PHI
84.6 vs NJ
110.6 @ CHA
112.7 vs SAC
111.2 @ MIN
101.1 vs TOR
111(ish) vs UTA

That's an average of 107.1 (which would look much worse if not for the NJ game). The NBA average defensive efficiency is 103.7. 107.1 would rank us as the 24th best defense.

[AceDegenerate]

Right, but you were pretty adamant earlier on in the thread.. then it conveniently disappeared from discussion. Just wanted to bring back to light that I am not the only one who makes predictions here that end up laughably wrong.

[DCZards]

I think McGee would play a lot closer to 30+ min a game
if he wouldn't start so many games off by committing 2 fouls
in the first 5 minutes

Jim, your great observation is worth a separate thread. McGee's fouls and minutes on the road have a lot to do with 0-20.

And it's McGee fouls, as much or more than Flip's coaching, that are often forcing him to the bench and limiting his minutes. Fouls that could probably be avoided if Javale were smarter and more discriminating about when and how he tries to block shots.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nah, McGee only averages 3.1 fouls on the road and 2.7 at home. At his foul rate he could play all 48 minutes even on the road without fouling out.

This coach chooses to bench McGee despite the offense and defense both being better, considerably, with McGee in the game. Flip needs to be forced to sit Blatche the way he sits McGee and to play McGee the minutes he plays Blatche, IMO.

It's a coaching preference, not fouls, that puts McGee on the bench so frequently, DCZ.

[DCZards]

Nah, McGee only averages 3.1 fouls on the road and 2.7 at home. At his foul rate he could play all 48 minutes even on the road without fouling out.

This coach chooses to bench McGee despite the offense and defense both being better, considerably, with McGee in the game. Flip needs to be forced to sit Blatche the way he sits McGee and to play McGee the minutes he plays Blatche, IMO.

It's a coaching preference, not fouls, that puts McGee on the bench so frequently, DCZ.

I may be wrong, ccj, but I don't think those numbers you cite necessarily suggest that McGee could play 48 mins and not foul out...not when he often picks up two fouls in the first 5-6 minutes of the game. Those early fouls are what matters most imo, not the 3.1. Looking at how he usually picks up two fouls in the first few minutes of the game, if McGee played, say, 16-18 minutes of the first half, he'd probably have four fouls by halftime...and five fouls before the end of the third quarter.

So those early fouls cut as much into McGee's minutes as Flip's coaching strategy. In fact, you could argue that Flip is playing it smart by limiting McGee's minutes the first three quarters--and keeping him out of foul trouble--so McGee is at least available in the fourth quarter, whether he plays or not.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Flip coaching smart on the road limiting McGee's minutes?

DCZards, I could go laughing smiley or get all sarcastic here, but I don't think that it would be dignified or called for considering your serious response. I will just say IMO Flip should play McGee 36 minutes on the road, and even play him to five or six fouls. IMO it's bad coaching for McGee to play 24 minutes a game on the road.

It's a big reason why the record is 0-21. I go into it in the other thread how I think McGee needs to play on the road vs away, but Flip is the one controlling minutes.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Back to this thread, the Wizards need to continue to win at home for the post-trade optimism to continue.

[Illuminaire]

Right, but you were pretty adamant earlier on in the thread.. then it conveniently disappeared from discussion. Just wanted to bring back to light that I am not the only one who makes predictions here that end up laughably wrong.

Nate had the cojones to update the thread with additional stats. He openly, publicly admitted that his initial premise appeared to be incorrect.That is the complete opposite of "conveniently disappeared."

It's not his fault you weren't paying attention.

[AceDegenerate]

Right, but you were pretty adamant earlier on in the thread.. then it conveniently disappeared from discussion. Just wanted to bring back to light that I am not the only one who makes predictions here that end up laughably wrong.

Nate had the cojones to update the thread with additional stats. He openly, publicly admitted that his initial premise appeared to be incorrect.That is the complete opposite of "conveniently disappeared."

It's not his fault you weren't paying attention.

Hmm.. what makes you think I wasn't paying attention?

The fact remains he made a prediction and was wrong about it. He pointed out that I made a single prediction regarding a single player and have been wrong about it. I responded by pointing out I am not the only one who is wrong.

I also had the "cojones" to say I was wrong, however there is nobody around to pat me on the back about it. :boohoo: