Why Deron won't opt out

[babyjax13]

I am going to follow this up with a post about the next off-season when Deron's contract expires...

2012-13
Jazz cap-space: $11,000,000-$21,000,000 (depending on Deron)
Williams/Bell/Hayward/Millsap/Jefferson under contract.

Teams with cap space for a max contract: Boston (Pierce, Rondo, Bradley); Cleveland (for one - and their roster sucks); Dallas (for one - almost); Denver (for two - but they have Lawson and no Melo); Houston (Aaron Brooks); Indiana (for 2, with Granger); LA Clippers (for one); Memphis (for two, they have to resign several players); Minnesota (has to resign Love and Beasley though - so zero); New Jersey (one, but again- terrible roster); New York (one, but they have Felton); Oklahoma (one; has to resign Westbrook - so zero); Portland (Roy's contract, has to resign Oden); Sacramento (two, but they have Evans), Toronto (one, but it's Toronto); Washington (Wall)

True Contenders for Deron: Dallas, LA Clippers, Indiana

Dallas
Under contract: Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood, Rodrigue Beaubois, Dominique Jones
Cap Used: $41,156,385
Cap Left: $15,000,000 after 9 cap holds

Do they really have a shot? The best player in their supporting cast, Dirk, will be 34. It doesn't help that Marion and Haywood will be close to that same age, and if Dallas decides to resign Terry (which they most likely will) they won't have the cap space to compete for Deron (the home-town hero) for the two years in which he will be a free agent.

LA Clippers
Under contract: Chris Kaman, Blake Griffin, Ryan Gomes, Al Farouq-Aminu, Eric Bledsoe, Baron Davis
Cap Used: $30,632,412 + $13,000,000 to resign Eric Gordon to a max contract = $43,632,412
Cap Left: $14,000,000 after 7 cap holds

Do they really have a shot? The answer ought to be yes, but the problem lies with Donald Sterling. Historically not willing to spend money, history of bad decisions and bad injuries and a roster that is extremely poor outside of Griffin - plus they have Baron Davis, must resign DeAndre Jordan the year before (figure on an MLE type contract) and they won't really have the money to offer Deron after resigning Eric Gordon. The Clippers do not have a realistic shot at signing Deron Williams if they want to retain Eric Gordon.

Indiana Pacers
Under contract: Danny Granger, Dahntay Jones, Paul George, Tyler Hansbrough, Darren Collison, Lance Stephanson
Cap Used: $24,777,329 + $13,000,000 to resign Roy Hibbert to a max contract = $34,777,329 + $4,000,000 for Brandon Rush = $38,777,329
Cap Left: $18,000,000 after cap holds

Do they really have a shot? Out of all the teams listed Indiana is the only one that has a chance financially at signing Deron. The problem lies with how good their roster really is. Granger is a great player, but a core of Granger/Hibbert/Williams/George with no bench isn't any more appealing than Utah. Plus, they also have Collison who is a good player in his own right, and Granger will be 30 years old.

[QuantumMacgyver]

Nice work gathering all of this info, but with the new CBA on the way things could drastically change. And also don't forget that a lot of players lately seem to be buying into the "take less money for a super team"' approach.

[Neon Black]

Thanks for the post.


I think this is a really optimistic stance right now. I don't see why having Felton would keep New York from signing Deron. I think New York would jump on it if they had the chance with the roster as-is. Sacramento would do the same despite Evans, and I think Dallas will definitely make a run at him, and he's going to at least listen.

I think Deron would consider all those options and they would die to have him, if they aren't already contenders with full rosters by that time.

[HolyToledo]

Deron wants to win and will go where he can win it all. These NBA stars dont want to be like Stockton and Malone and other NBA past stars that never won a title. DWill is gone unless something drastically changes in Utah. Per se I wouldnt mind trading Dwill if it made the team better but that is a highly unlikely scenario that a trade would make the Jazz better.

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

Honestly, if the Clippers can keep their young talent together and healthy I feel like that's the biggest threat. Anyone and everyone is going to want to play with Griffin, especially Deron. Could you imagine him running the pick and roll with Griffin? They would be unstoppable. We better start praying that the Clippers draft a super stud PG or Baron Davis continues to play well alongside of Griffin cause that's where D-Will is going if not. Although, they could try and sign CP3 instead so who knows.

I can't see Dallas being a big threat outside of it being his hometown. They may have a good core but they are going to be getting really old by then. I can't imagine Deron would want to go sign with a team who is going to start declining or will soon be on the decline. Although, I could see Cuban pulling some crazy A moves to make them younger and more appealing if he feels like they have any shot of signing him.

New York might be a contender for him, especially if they land Melo in the next FA. They would have Amare, Melo, Galli and then you add Deron instead of Felton? That's a wicked lineup, especially with their run and gun system.

You also have to consider other teams making moves to clear up cap space for Deron, Paul and some of the other good FA's that are going to be available. Just because some teams don't have the room right now doesn't mean they won't when his contract is up.

It's going to be interesting to see how things play out but right now I can't say I feel confident that we will be able to re-sign him or he will pick up his extension.

[king everything]

And in related news, there is absolutely NO way LeBron leaves Cleveland.

And pairing him up with Wade and Bosh and fitting it into the salary cap? Yeah... pipe dreams...

Bottom line- if this Summer of LeBron taught us anything, its that anything CAN happen and theres a way to make it happen.

Learn that lesson well when Deron takes a paycut to play for a contender with a contending coach.

[kebutah]

So much can happen between now and then. What if the CBA lets teams get rid of one contracct again? Many trades can happen. there is absolutely no way anybody can project with any degree of certainty. Right now this is just called wishful thinking.

[StocktonShorts]

Thanks for the post.


I think this is a really optimistic stance right now. I don't see why having Felton would keep New York from signing Deron.

In fact NY structured Felton's deal specifically so he'd be off their books the summer when Paul and Deron can opt out.