Drose is an ELITE defender~~~Synergy

[DRose4MVP]

Naw, sorry, I'll go with what Henry Abbott tells me. That guy obviously watches more DRose than us.

[Jvaughn]

Good, now someone explain that the GB.

FIXED

Some of you Bulls fans have a really unhealthy obsession with trying to set the GB straight. And honestly, it just ends up making Bulls fans as a whole look insecure to have to jump up with such force to defend Derrick at the sign of any slight. Or at the sign of any potential for a slight (Speaking of how EVERY Rose thread on the GB has to have Bulls fans jump in and give the sarcastic answers of "He can't go left" or the such even before anyone has said anything bad about Rose).

I can understand the desire to talk basketball, but I cannot understand the desire to talk it with a group of people you tend to, for the most part, have little respect for their knowledge of the subject at hand.

As Project Pat once said, Don't save her, she don't wanna be saved.

I get kind of sick of seeing lies spewed about Rose on there. So yeah, I chime in and defend it. Pardon me for not sitting there and just letting the D-Rose hate machine grow.

And it is a desire to talk basketball. D-Rose is my favorite basketball player on my favorite basketball team. Does that not fall under the "desire to talk basketball" label. There have been many occasions where fact checking in those threads have led people to change their opinions. Today alone, I've had a couple say "Wow, I didn't know that about Rose." Pretty satisfying to me, when spreading the truth about Rose.

[coldfish]

That's +/-. Which you'll have me admit is incredibly noisy in small samples. And too noisy in large samples still. But still somewhat useful when team situation is also put in as context. DRTG is a far better stat. Dwight's is at 95, best on his team.

OK, maybe I'm a fool here. What *is* defensive rating? I thought it was the points given up per 100 possessions while you are on the court.

It's an estimate of that based on how many minutes played, rebound rate, steal %, block % and whatnot. Good defensive team with good metrics=good rating. Bad defensive team with good metrics=decent rating. Bad+Bad=Bad.

Its heavily rebounding dependent with steals as a variable. Just on the Bulls it says that:
- James Johnson is the best defender
- Carlos Boozer is the third best defender
- All of the big men are better defenders than all of the guards
- Luol Deng is the third worst defender on the team

These are the type of things I have always seen with DRTNG, which is why I have always ignored it.

[lorak]

heres the rest of the team:
bulls ppp (rank/# of possessions defended):

rose: 0.74 (17th/517)
bogans: 0.92 (243rd/226)
deng: 0.8 (63rd/536)
boozer: 0.86 (140th/224)
noah: 0.94 (276th/168)

watson: 0.83 (93rd/207)
brewer: 0.78 (45th/274)
korver: 0.81 (75th/280)
taj: 0.8 (63rd/294)
asik: 0.83 (93rd/98)
big sexy: 0.66 (8th/154)

Great stuff!
Could you post top 10 league wide and also how it looks in Boston and Miami?

[blumeany]

I go by the eye test, not stats. And from what I've seen, Derrick is a MUCH better defender. He's disrupting passes, blocking shots (which is crazy for a PG), contesting shots, staying on his man, etc. etc. It's very easy to notice should any of these national writers actually watch a game and not just base their columns on what he was before this year.

[drivewayball]

Its heavily rebounding dependent with steals as a variable. Just on the Bulls it says that:
- James Johnson is the best defender
- Carlos Boozer is the third best defender
- All of the big men are better defenders than all of the guards
- Luol Deng is the third worst defender on the team

These are the type of things I have always seen with DRTNG, which is why I have always ignored it.

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT YOU IGNORE ANY STATISTICS THAT DON'T SUPPORT WHAT YOU WANT TO BELIEVE. IT'S THE CARDINAL RULE OF HOMERISM.

[DanTown8587]

Its heavily rebounding dependent with steals as a variable. Just on the Bulls it says that:
- James Johnson is the best defender
- Carlos Boozer is the third best defender
- All of the big men are better defenders than all of the guards
- Luol Deng is the third worst defender on the team

These are the type of things I have always seen with DRTNG, which is why I have always ignored it.

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT YOU IGNORE ANY STATISTICS THAT DON'T SUPPORT WHAT YOU WANT TO BELIEVE. IT'S THE CARDINAL RULE OF HOMERISM.

Or, just spit balling here, it's trying to statistically quantify something that there is no stat to keep. Defensive rating helps, but it's too weighted to rebounding to be that good of a measurement. It helps determine a player's value to a team, but it's flawed. Mainly because defense is a subjective measurement. For example, if Luol Deng is guarding Danny Granger and forces him to shoot a fallaway 18 footer, that's good defense, regardless of whether or not the shot goes in. Same is true it's bad defense if Luol let's Granger shoot a wide open three. The problem with defense is your only concern as a defender is limiting as many easy and efficient shots as possible, the actual result of the shot is not something you truly care about as a defensive coach.

[coldfish]

Its heavily rebounding dependent with steals as a variable. Just on the Bulls it says that:
- James Johnson is the best defender
- Carlos Boozer is the third best defender
- All of the big men are better defenders than all of the guards
- Luol Deng is the third worst defender on the team

These are the type of things I have always seen with DRTNG, which is why I have always ignored it.

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT YOU IGNORE ANY STATISTICS THAT DON'T SUPPORT WHAT YOU WANT TO BELIEVE. IT'S THE CARDINAL RULE OF HOMERISM.

Measuring defensive ability has always been a shot in the dark. There are many stats that disagree with the above listed items. So, if I say that my eyes tell me that Noah, Deng, Brewer and Rose are the best defenders on the team and I have PER against and synergy stats that back that up, does that make me a homer?

The +/- stats say that the team's best players are:
1. Korver
2. Boozer
3. Rose
...
7. Luol Deng
8. Watson
9. Noah
I disagree with that and think that the stat is unreflective of true impact due to its dependency on match ups and rotations. Does that make me a homer?

[khufure]

I don't like these stats. I still, at 43, play ball at a relatively high level. I have always been a very good, sometimes lock down defender. It is mostly about effort and anticipation-plus knowing your comp.

We all know Thibs prepares his guys. Our team D is consistently outstanding, and that's with Boozer being awful.

Rose's effort has been incredible this year on D. That is with him carrying the load on offense. Yes, he misses rotations sometimes, but everyone does.

He does not play the passing lanes well, but I'm fine with that. I actually rarely go for steals-I keep my man in front and make them hit tough shots. Rose is getting really good at that.

For him to go from a terrible defender two years ago to an average last year to an elite one this year is awesome. I was actually going to post something about him being our lockdown guy at the end of games, over Deng, Brewer or Watson. I watch every game and I know his D is great now.

Agreed, except I haven't played since high school. Just watching the games I believe Rose, Noah, Brewer, Deng, and Sexy are elite defenders. I actually feel Bogans & Korver make good effort but are equally incapable athletically. (Surprised on both ends on that one). Boozer is probably below average but sometimes he is good so there is hope. Asik seems to be getting good at defense. though I imagine he wil always be a risk for getting posterized.

Defensive stats are total voodoo except for opponent FG % and D rebounding in my opinion.

[lorak]

That's +/-. Which you'll have me admit is incredibly noisy in small samples. And too noisy in large samples still. But still somewhat useful when team situation is also put in as context. DRTG is a far better stat. Dwight's is at 95, best on his team.

OK, maybe I'm a fool here. What *is* defensive rating? I thought it was the points given up per 100 possessions while you are on the court.

There are two different defensive ratings:
- Dean's Oliver's individual DRTG, you could find it at basketball-reference and it's calculated from box score only
- 82games DRTG called "Defense: Pts per 100 Poss." it's calculated from play by play data so it's more accurate than Oliver's rating but it's still very noisy (it depends on with who and against who player plays)

[transplant]

There are two different defensive ratings:
- Dean's Oliver's individual DRTG, you could find it at basketball-reference and it's calculated from box score only
- 82games DRTG called "Defense: Pts per 100 Poss." it's calculated from play by play data so it's more accurate than Oliver's rating but it's still very noisy (it depends on with who and against who player plays)

I need educating.

As I read it, Oliver's is described as "points allowed per 100 possessions."

82games.com's is titled "Defense: pts per 100 Poss."

Other than the abbreviations, they sure sound identical, but when you compare the two for individual players they're clearly different.

You say that Oliver's comes only from box scores. What does this mean?

You say that 82games.com comes from play-by-play data. What does this mean?

Sorry to be so dense, but I still don't get the distinction. Thanks in advance.

[alucryts]

heres the rest of the team:
bulls ppp (rank/# of possessions defended):

rose: 0.74 (17th/517)
bogans: 0.92 (243rd/226)
deng: 0.8 (63rd/536)
boozer: 0.86 (140th/224)
noah: 0.94 (276th/168)

watson: 0.83 (93rd/207)
brewer: 0.78 (45th/274)
korver: 0.81 (75th/280)
taj: 0.8 (63rd/294)
asik: 0.83 (93rd/98)
big sexy: 0.66 (8th/154)

Great stuff!
Could you post top 10 league wide and also how it looks in Boston and Miami?

i cant do top 10 league wide...id have to fish for them but heres the main guys for those two:

miami
wade: 0.82 ((82nd)
lebron: 0.76 (25th)
bosh: 0.8 (59th)

boston
rondo: 0.82 (82nd)
pierce: 0.82 (82nd)
kg: 0.83 (95th)
allen: 0.77 (34th)

[alucryts]

There are two different defensive ratings:
- Dean's Oliver's individual DRTG, you could find it at basketball-reference and it's calculated from box score only
- 82games DRTG called "Defense: Pts per 100 Poss." it's calculated from play by play data so it's more accurate than Oliver's rating but it's still very noisy (it depends on with who and against who player plays)

I need educating.

As I read it, Oliver's is described as "points allowed per 100 possessions."

82games.com's is titled "Defense: pts per 100 Poss."

Other than the abbreviations, they sure sound identical, but when you compare the two for individual players they're clearly different.

You say that Oliver's comes only from box scores. What does this mean?

You say that 82games.com comes from play-by-play data. What does this mean?

Sorry to be so dense, but I still don't get the distinction. Thanks in advance.

from box score means literally the numbers in the equation used are directly from box score data.

from play by play means that the formula uses information in the play by play log of a game. if you go to espn and look at the box scores youll see a tab called play by play above it. that is where it is from

[transplant]

from box score means literally the numbers in the equation used are directly from box score data.

from play by play means that the formula uses information in the play by play log of a game. if you go to espn and look at the box scores youll see a tab called play by play above it. that is where it is from

Sorry, but still dense.

The play-by-play thing makes some sense to me. You look at the play by play, create a subset of the possessions in which each player was in the game and then add the opponent's points scored within each subset. Do I have that right?

The box score thing still perplexes me. What elements of the box score are used and how can they be used to isolate an individual player's offensive or defensive rating?

[PippenAintEasy]

Good defender maybe, but elite defender is a huge stretch. You can SEE elite defenders. Thabo is one. Bowen was one. Battier is one. Derrick is NOT an elite defender.

[lorak]

from box score means literally the numbers in the equation used are directly from box score data.

from play by play means that the formula uses information in the play by play log of a game. if you go to espn and look at the box scores youll see a tab called play by play above it. that is where it is from

Sorry, but still dense.

The play-by-play thing makes some sense to me. You look at the play by play, create a subset of the possessions in which each player was in the game and then add the opponent's points scored within each subset. Do I have that right?

Yes.

The box score thing still perplexes me. What elements of the box score are used and how can they be used to isolate an individual player's offensive or defensive rating?

It's complicated calculation and my English isn't good enough to explain that but in short: Oliver's drtg formula assumes a lot of things - how many turnovers (other than steals) player forced, how many missed shots (other than blocks) player forced and how many times his team lost points from FT after his fouls. Oliver also assumes that every player on the court is equally responsible for defense so based on team DRTG and minutes played he gives every player some credit for team defense (drtg) and for opponent missed FG, opponent turnovers and opponents points from FT line.

Of course Oliver's formula also include stls, blks and drbs, but most things are only assumptions based on box score numbers and from that we have Oliver's individual DRTG (so assumption how many points per 100 possession team lost when player A was on the floor).

[dice]

using box scores for defensive ratings is ridiculous

synergy uses game tape, i presume?

[transplant]

It's complicated calculation and my English isn't good enough to explain that but in short: Oliver's drtg formula assumes a lot of things - how many turnovers (other than steals) player forced, how many missed shots (other than blocks) player forced and how many times his team lost points from FT after his fouls. Oliver also assumes that every player on the court is equally responsible for defense so based on team DRTG and minutes played he gives every player some credit for team defense (drtg) and for opponent missed FG, opponent turnovers and opponents points from FT line.

Of course Oliver's formula also include stls, blks and drbs, but most things are only assumptions based on box score numbers and from that we have Oliver's individual DRTG (so assumption how many points per 100 possession team lost when player A was on the floor).

Thanks very much for the effort, D.S., and your English is better than most who were born here.

As I see it, if a stat can't be reasonably understood by someone with a good quantitative aptitude (me, for example), normal fans can't possibly put much credence in it (beyond blind faith).

[dice]

Thanks very much for the effort, D.S., and your English is better than most who were born here.

by a longshot

[coldfish]

I have actually spent a little bit of time trying to research this and still don't see a full description. Some of the posts in this thread are better than the stuff you find via the google.

This is a complete wild ass guess based on a little information, but the Oliver DRTNG is a score.
- You get a bonus for everything you do positive on defense. Rebound, block, steal.
- You get a penalty for everything negative you do on defense. Fouls
- You get a penalty for everything negative that happens to the team on defense. Made FG's.
- Some leveling is applied to turn the number into a pace adjusted figure.

Based on this, I am going to assume that Larry Hughes used to get good defensive ratings for being a gambler. Let's me look:

Ans: Yes and no. He had a 104, which was best on the team, but not that great.

I also estimate that Kirk Hinrich did not get good defensive ratings because he wasn't a gambler. Let's look:

Ans: YES!!! Drtng says that Hinrich has been a poor defender for his entire career (105 career number) and was routinely one of the worst defenders on the team.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2007.html

See 06/07 where Hinrich was the 3rd worst defender and all of the Bulls guards were bad where guys like Sweetney were among the best.