Jan 31-Wizards at Dallas

[Ruzious]

Going to Blatche's efficiency, if he'd just double his FT attempts from about 4 a game to 8 a game, that'd increase his scoring by 3 points a game. And he can do that by simply being more aggressive and not settling for fade-away jumpers. Unfortunately, it's easier said than done - since seeing that he hasn't done that yet, it's unlikely he ever will.

[tontoz]

The trouble with Blatche is that he AND the coaching staff/front office seem to think he's a quality offensive weapon. The solution for a great scorer who's having a bad shooting night is to keep on shooting -- odds are, the next one goes in. Blatche isn't a great scorer, though. He should have his offensive game curtailed IN GENERAL, not just when he's having what could be described as a bad shooting night. Even on his "good" nights he's inefficient.

People talk about how good he was last year but his TS% of 51.9% last year wouldn't even crack this year's top 50 among power forwards.

[nate33]

It was 53% following the Jamison trade.

[Nivek]

Offensive efficiency is more than shooting. Blatche's turnovers also went up after the Jamison trade. His offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions) was 101 for the season -- and was a shade under 102 after the deal. His ortg has been low throughout his career -- his best season was a 103 in his 3rd season. The past two seasons were both 101; this year it's at 95 points produced per 100 possessions -- league average is 106.9. Blatche has the team's highest usage rate (Gil's was higher, but he's not here anymore), but the only guys who produce less per possession are Armstrong, Seraphin and Howard.

[tontoz]

It was 53% following the Jamison trade.

That would rank him 47th. That is still weak. This year his TS% of 47.5% is a joke. Even Wall and Yi are doing better.

[tontoz]

Offensive efficiency is more than shooting. Blatche's turnovers also went up after the Jamison trade. His offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions) was 101 for the season -- and was a shade under 102 after the deal. His ortg has been low throughout his career -- his best season was a 103 in his 3rd season. The past two seasons were both 101; this year it's at 95 points produced per 100 possessions -- league average is 106.9. Blatche has the team's highest usage rate (Gil's was higher, but he's not here anymore), but the only guys who produce less per possession are Armstrong, Seraphin and Howard.

[nate33]

It was 53% following the Jamison trade.

That would rank him 47th. That is still weak. This year his TS% of 47.5% is a joke. Even Wall and Yi are doing better.

No argument here. His output this year is embarrassing

But last year, he posted an ORtg of 101 last year, his post trade ORtg must have been higher since his shooting percentage was higher. (His turnover rate was also higher, but so were his assists.) Let's assume Blatche posted an ORtg of about 103 post-trade. He did so while maintaining perhaps the highest usage rate in the league, and he did it on a bad offensive team with no other decent players to draw defensive attention. His ORtg was actually higher than that of his team, which is really all one can expect out of it's highest usage player.

What's so disappointing is that he has gone so far down hill since then. Theoretically, since he has better teammates and therefore the ability to spread the offensive load, his offensive rating should improve. Instead it's been a disaster.

[hands11]

Shh. . .don't tell anybody. . .but I gotta feeling about this game. . .

I think that was gas.

But like Flip said in pre game, it more important that they play right and grow. This is about the future. The wins will come from playing right. They are showing improvement in areas.

The refs were terrible. That doesn't excuse the Wizards mistakes but it sure doesn't help. Dallas is tough enough without the refs making it so much harder. So many blown calls. Broken record. Wall was hammered on that late drive that he made. Booker was grabbed by Chandler who also flopped and pulled him to the ground for his 3 foul I think. The over the back board ball was missed. Nick got clobbered a few times, no call. There were ton of other calls that were just out right blown. Hell Phil and Buck even said something and they never say anything. Terrible. Just terrible. Flip even got a T is was so bad.

The good ?

Wall played with a lot more energy specially on defense and got in a a good defensive stance. He was jumping over the top of most the screens and played solid D. He pushed the ball up the court on breaks. He looked a ton better and address most the things I was pointing out that he needed to do better. He drove better also. I have zero problem with a few air balls if he plays the rest of his game like that. The missed late FTs was just a choke but he played great. Maybe his best game of the year. If not, the best game in a long time.

Yi was awesome. wow. Amazing effort. Now that is what they hoped to see from him. His outside shot can be so smooth but it was his interior work that stood out. Also he moved the ball around instead of shooting every time. He looked really active out there and played smart. Nice dunk and the put back dunk. And he did blocked that shot without going into the rim. Another blown call. Maybe his best game of the year. And 11 rebounds, 1 block and a steal. Yi was feeling it.

Lewis also looked great out there. Lots of effort on D and his 3 ball seems to have returned so he leg must be feeling better. Can't wait till Howard returns to join him. This team just lacks enough vet presence when they need it to get over the hump. Kirk is nice but Lewis and Howard would be a solid vet tandem.

Book looks like a man out there while he was on the floor. The fouls were a problem and the refs didnt help. Would have really helped if he could have stayed out there. Chandler was very physical and got a ton of the Wiz players in foul trouble. Book and McGee both got two each in the first quarter.

Nick and Dray. Tough games for both. I can't believe Nick missed so many FTs. Dray played pretty solid D and rebounded well but his offensive game just wasn't working. I do like that he is facing the basket more and pressing the D with the pass threat. That was something I wanted to see him do more. But he still needs to work on some more reliable offensive moves. I think his J is off because he is leaning sideways on his J to much. I don't mind fading back some but back and sideways doesn't look reliable. But Dray did get to the line 10 times and made 8. He was also injured again. He missed one FT with his right shoulder really hurting him. Nick fought to contribute in other ways also. He grabbed a nice late rebound. He got to the line 9 times and grabbed 3 rebounds with 2 assists and a steal. I'd rather those numbers be 5 and 4 but I'll take it for now. So while there was suck factors from both, they still did stuff out there. That said, 4-17 from Dray and 6-20 from Nick is hard to overcome when it happens in the same game and the refs suck.

AT didn't bring his physical presence enough and Kirk was just ok. This team isn't good enough to over come average play from many players. Always seems like some are bringing it while some aren't. But even with that they were in it which is a positive sign. Wall, Lewis and Yi looked great.

Overall, they did a lot of good things and played with effort. They still made some stupid mistakes. One small one stands out at the end. They were still in it and fighting. They got the ball to McGee on the right baseline and he attempted some stupid shot that is in no way his shot. I have no problem with him trying new stuff at the right time, but that wasn't it with he game close at the end. It just seemed clueless that he didn't understand that. I recall Dray taking some forced crazy shot late also. Stuff like that needs fixed. Dallas stayed focused and ran the offense and passed the ball around.

So they played well to enough to win if some thing were better and they played poorly enough to have gotten blown out had they not fought as hard as they did. Even just better refs could have allowed them to win.

Looking forward to the return of Howard. This roster really misses him. So who is going to start moving forward? Booker or McGee ? When Book starts Dray is at center and we have more power. That is a major move for this team since Dray was the PF all year. I'm for starting Booker, moving Dray to starting center and bringing McGee off the bench. Book desires some starts so he can grow. If he gets solid enough and finds a shot, then maybe they can try Booker and McGee starting.

[hands11]

Going to Blatche's efficiency, if he'd just double his FT attempts from about 4 a game to 8 a game, that'd increase his scoring by 3 points a game. And he can do that by simply being more aggressive and not settling for fade-away jumpers. Unfortunately, it's easier said than done - since seeing that he hasn't done that yet, it's unlikely he ever will.

And the injured shoulder isn't helping. He went down there and got hurt again. He has been more aggressive in the post lately. He got off the other night for like 6 shots in the first quarter from in the paint.

I don't know what is wrong with the shoulder. Seems like it is sprained or something because he hurts it just about every game at some point. They are probably just trying to get him to the All Star break so see if he can get it right. Once Howard is playing again, I could see them maybe even sitting him the game before the break just to get him a few more days rest. Howard can play SF so they can move Lewis to PF and let Booker back him up.

Dray has actually be improving in some areas. Lets not forgot he is more then moderately hurt.

[tontoz]

Dray has actually be improving in some areas. Lets not forgot he is more then moderately hurt.

If he is hurt he shouldn't be jacking up so many shots. Seems like he forgets about his injury when he gets the ball in his hands.

[Nivek]

It was 53% following the Jamison trade.

That would rank him 47th. That is still weak. This year his TS% of 47.5% is a joke. Even Wall and Yi are doing better.

No argument here. His output this year is embarrassing

But last year, he posted an ORtg of 101 last year, his post trade ORtg must have been higher since his shooting percentage was higher. (His turnover rate was also higher, but so were his assists.) Let's assume Blatche posted an ORtg of about 103 post-trade. He did so while maintaining perhaps the highest usage rate in the league, and he did it on a bad offensive team with no other decent players to draw defensive attention. His ORtg was actually higher than that of his team, which is really all one can expect out of it's highest usage player.

What's so disappointing is that he has gone so far down hill since then. Theoretically, since he has better teammates and therefore the ability to spread the offensive load, his offensive rating should improve. Instead it's been a disaster.

Here's a simple way of looking at it (since I discarded the spreadsheet where I calculated Blatche's ortg as a starter and a reserve for last season). Kevin Pelton has a simple ortg, which is basically points per play. It's points / FGA + .44 x FTA + TOV. It's not as precise as ortg, but it can be used for basic comparisons.

Blatche last season:
full season -- 89.0
starter -- 89.1
reserve -- 88.9
home -- 93.1
road -- 85.1
pre All-Star -- 87.7
post All-Star -- 89.9
Wins -- 101.3
Losses -- 83.3
Oct/Nov -- 92.8
Dec -- 81.3
Jan -- 80.6
Feb -- 104.7
Mar -- 86.8
Apr -- 83.6
SO FAR THIS SEASON -- 82.0

League average last season was 94.1. This year, league average is 93.4.

Wizards this season -- 89.0. Last season -- 90.2.

So, basically Blatche had a terrific February and began sliding after that. His April production is close to what it's been so far this season.

[nate33]

Good stuff Kevin. My only small tweak would be that I think Blatche deserves a little credit for his increased assist rate. His per-minute assist rate almost doubled after the Jamison trade. He is being charged for the extra turnovers he accumulated in generating those extra assists, but he gets no credit for how his assists helped the offense.

I recognize that it's difficult to properly weigh the value of an assist - but my own eyes were telling me that the Blatche of last season made life easier on his teammates because he was drawing double teams and getting guys open looks.

[Nivek]

I hear ya nate. I previously had done the same work using full offensive rating, which includes assists and offensive rebounds, but I don't have the time to set up the spreadsheet again. As I recall, the basic analysis wouldn't be changed.

[Mr. Grundle]

Can someone clarify if I saw this correctly, because I was a little drunk and it seemed unbelievable at the time. We had the ball down 4 with 2 minutes to play, came up court and gave it to Blatche at the top of the key. Now it appeared that he just jumped in the air and then just threw the ball out of bounds. They went down and hit a dagger 3 on the next possession.

Did that really happen? If so it was probably the least clutch, most horrific crunch time play I have ever seen.

[Nivek]

According to the play-by-play, Blatche had a "bad pass" turnover at 2:28 with the Wiz down 4. That has to be what you're thinking of.

[tontoz]

Can someone clarify if I saw this correctly, because I was a little drunk and it seemed unbelievable at the time. We had the ball down 4 with 2 minutes to play, came up court and gave it to Blatche at the top of the key. Now it appeared that he just jumped in the air and then just threw the ball out of bounds. They went down and hit a dagger 3 on the next possession.

Did that really happen? If so it was probably the least clutch, most horrific crunch time play I have ever seen.

Yes that did happen. He had a bit of a dribblefest before his spinning assist to the first row (or was it the second row?) fans. A fitting way to end the game.

[DCZards]

Can someone clarify if I saw this correctly, because I was a little drunk and it seemed unbelievable at the time. We had the ball down 4 with 2 minutes to play, came up court and gave it to Blatche at the top of the key. Now it appeared that he just jumped in the air and then just threw the ball out of bounds. They went down and hit a dagger 3 on the next possession.

Did that really happen? If so it was probably the least clutch, most horrific crunch time play I have ever seen.

Yeah, Dray thought Wall was still standing in the spot where he threw the ball...but John had moved a few steps toward midcourt at least 2-3 secs before that. A bad, careless pass by AB.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here's a simple way of looking at it (since I discarded the spreadsheet where I calculated Blatche's ortg as a starter and a reserve for last season). Kevin Pelton has a simple ortg, which is basically points per play. It's points / FGA + .44 x FTA + TOV. It's not as precise as ortg, but it can be used for basic comparisons.

Blatche last season:
full season -- 89.0
starter -- 89.1
reserve -- 88.9
home -- 93.1
road -- 85.1
pre All-Star -- 87.7
post All-Star -- 89.9
Wins -- 101.3
Losses -- 83.3
Oct/Nov -- 92.8
Dec -- 81.3
Jan -- 80.6
Feb -- 104.7
Mar -- 86.8
Apr -- 83.6
SO FAR THIS SEASON -- 82.0

League average last season was 94.1. This year, league average is 93.4.

Wizards this season -- 89.0. Last season -- 90.2.

So, basically Blatche had a terrific February and began sliding after that. His April production is close to what it's been so far this season.

Here's what I would do if I were really a GM:

At the time of the draft, I'd try to get Kenneth Faried's rights with filler from the team I trade Andray Blatche to. I'd like to see Andray under another coach, as a reserve. Flip Saunders seems to think Andray is KG, but the efficiency and the rebounding rate just isn't there. He won't even do the thing he's really good at--passing the ball. I think Blatche and McGee cannot coincide much longer, and I'd get rid of Blatche with the quickness before trading Javale, who's got a bunch of upside. I'm tired of go-to Andray. (More tired of the way Flip gives the guy license than of Andray, who's actually a decent player when not selfish IMO).

I'm content that Booker is a Bass/Maxiel-type, serviceable player. Seraphin might be able to play PF. This draft could yeild a stud like Sullinger or Derrick Williams. I think before seeing Andray at C, and the Red Sea parting on a nightly basis, I'd rather see him traded.

Give me Faried and a lotto big, and I'd say bye bye to Blatche.

[cwb3]

Shh. . .don't tell anybody. . .but I gotta feeling about this game. . .

I think that was gas.

But like Flip said in pre game, it more important that they play right and grow. This is about the future. The wins will come from playing right. They are showing improvement in areas.

The refs were terrible. That doesn't excuse the Wizards mistakes but it sure doesn't help. Dallas is tough enough without the refs making it so much harder. So many blown calls. Broken record. Wall was hammered on that late drive that he made. Booker was grabbed by Chandler who also flopped and pulled him to the ground for his 3 foul I think. The over the back board ball was missed. Nick got clobbered a few times, no call. There were ton of other calls that were just out right blown. Hell Phil and Buck even said something and they never say anything. Terrible. Just terrible. Flip even got a T is was so bad.

The good ?

Wall played with a lot more energy specially on defense and got in a a good defensive stance. He was jumping over the top of most the screens and played solid D. He pushed the ball up the court on breaks. He looked a ton better and address most the things I was pointing out that he needed to do better. He drove better also. I have zero problem with a few air balls if he plays the rest of his game like that. The missed late FTs was just a choke but he played great. Maybe his best game of the year. If not, the best game in a long time.

Yi was awesome. wow. Amazing effort. Now that is what they hoped to see from him. His outside shot can be so smooth but it was his interior work that stood out. Also he moved the ball around instead of shooting every time. He looked really active out there and played smart. Nice dunk and the put back dunk. And he did blocked that shot without going into the rim. Another blown call. Maybe his best game of the year. And 11 rebounds, 1 block and a steal. Yi was feeling it.

Lewis also looked great out there. Lots of effort on D and his 3 ball seems to have returned so he leg must be feeling better. Can't wait till Howard returns to join him. This team just lacks enough vet presence when they need it to get over the hump. Kirk is nice but Lewis and Howard would be a solid vet tandem.

Book looks like a man out there while he was on the floor. The fouls were a problem and the refs didnt help. Would have really helped if he could have stayed out there. Chandler was very physical and got a ton of the Wiz players in foul trouble. Book and McGee both got two each in the first quarter.

Nick and Dray. Tough games for both. I can't believe Nick missed so many FTs. Dray played pretty solid D and rebounded well but his offensive game just wasn't working. I do like that he is facing the basket more and pressing the D with the pass threat. That was something I wanted to see him do more. But he still needs to work on some more reliable offensive moves. I think his J is off because he is leaning sideways on his J to much. I don't mind fading back some but back and sideways doesn't look reliable. But Dray did get to the line 10 times and made 8. He was also injured again. He missed one FT with his right shoulder really hurting him. Nick fought to contribute in other ways also. He grabbed a nice late rebound. He got to the line 9 times and grabbed 3 rebounds with 2 assists and a steal. I'd rather those numbers be 5 and 4 but I'll take it for now. So while there was suck factors from both, they still did stuff out there. That said, 4-17 from Dray and 6-20 from Nick is hard to overcome when it happens in the same game and the refs suck.

AT didn't bring his physical presence enough and Kirk was just ok. This team isn't good enough to over come average play from many players. Always seems like some are bringing it while some aren't. But even with that they were in it which is a positive sign. Wall, Lewis and Yi looked great.

Overall, they did a lot of good things and played with effort. They still made some stupid mistakes. One small one stands out at the end. They were still in it and fighting. They got the ball to McGee on the right baseline and he attempted some stupid shot that is in no way his shot. I have no problem with him trying new stuff at the right time, but that wasn't it with he game close at the end. It just seemed clueless that he didn't understand that. I recall Dray taking some forced crazy shot late also. Stuff like that needs fixed. Dallas stayed focused and ran the offense and passed the ball around.

So they played well to enough to win if some thing were better and they played poorly enough to have gotten blown out had they not fought as hard as they did. Even just better refs could have allowed them to win.

Looking forward to the return of Howard. This roster really misses him. So who is going to start moving forward? Booker or McGee ? When Book starts Dray is at center and we have more power. That is a major move for this team since Dray was the PF all year. I'm for starting Booker, moving Dray to starting center and bringing McGee off the bench. Book desires some starts so he can grow. If he gets solid enough and finds a shot, then maybe they can try Booker and McGee starting.

I have to give you some real credit hands11, you've kept your chin up and continue to soberly assess the positive and negative aspects of this young and struggling franchise. You are a better man than I am. I am reduced to watching Wizards basketball out of some instinctive blend of masocism and sarcasm. Or I watch 'Animal Hoarders' on the Animal Network. Pitbulls and Parolees is now my favorite show on television!