Post#13 » by retiredcoach » Thu Feb 3, 2011 12:08 am
Describing the statistical analysis as "gimmick stats" isn't a comment on how Jefferson is playing but on stats in general. I responded to that.
I agree Jefferson needs to improve on a some issues, especially defense. On defense he has slow feet and is slow to react to dribblers coming off screens. It's impossible for the primary defender to push through every screen to stop penetration into the paint.. Jefferson needs to help on defense by slowing down the cutter and allowing the principle defender to catch up. The 2nd problem I see, and I haven't spent a lot of time studying it, is Jefferson's slow feet cause him to use too much time to get into position on the low post. He's okay when the ball goes into the post, and he's waiting on it, but if he catches above the block, he's going to take a lot of time to get to his spots. Another issue is he doesn't seem to see the open man when the defense converges on him, or if he does, he has problems getting the ball to them. Part of that could be his experiences in Minnesota where he was primary scoring option, so he didn't have to move the ball out of the post. The Jazz depend on ball movement to make the flex offense work.
If Milsap were quicker on help defense, he could take part of the pick and roll defense off Jefferson, but he's not too fast on the help side either. That creates a difficult problem to correct.
On offense Jefferson is a true low post player. He's at his absolute best off the block and in the paint. When he gets on his spots, he's good, really good. The Jazz offense is not designed for a post player like Jefferson.
This summer I expect Sloan and his staff will work out more low post plays for Jefferson. That will speed up the offense once again, and it will make Deron more effective, raising his assist averages a bit. Jefferson will learn the offense better and be able to move the ball quicker. He hasn't had much practice time with the Jazz and was totally unprepared for their system having played only in Minnesota and Boston.
I don't think Jefferson's defense is going to improve much. There are several reasons for that. I don't think he's naturally quick with his feet. I don't think he's mentally fast on picking up his options and moving into and out of position in rapid fashion. He was drafted right out of high school. Defense in high school for a guy Jefferson's size is easy. Learning to play defense in the pro's is a lot harder than it is in college. In college there is more practice time, the coaches are better teachers, they have more control over the players (most of the time) and there are fewer games so there's more teaching time and less pressure. Jefferson is only 26. He's got a lot of years left to play.
A lot of fans would obviously say Jefferson doesn't play good enough defense. Okay. But what specifically is off in his defense? Is he consistently off? Does it change under some circumstances? How quick can he learn? Are his issues psychological or physical or lack of understanding? There's a hundred things that have to be looked at. It's complicated. There's a big difference between being generally right and specifically right.
Right now almost none of his problems on defense are likely to get corrected. It's the wrong time in the pro season to make much progress on this. More post plays can be put in after the break, but that's up to the staff and no one knows what they are thinking right now.
In his case, I would use statistical analysis to determine which teams gave him the most defensive problems, what kind of problems and whether the problems were consistent. Then I would review the films, break down the tapes, and compile them into a defensive lesson plan. I would then go over everything with Jefferson and work out a plan to improve his defense. From there the rest would be up to him and how hard he is willing to work.
Based on what I've seen so far and how he has reacted, I would say he'll be between 30% and 50% better on defense next year. He'll be 20% more effective in the post and a 40% better passer. How many wins will that add to the total, 3 to 7. I don't see a trade involving Jefferson. He's really a valuable player. Small changes in the system will make him more efficient and improve his productivity with the ball in his hands.
