Breakout Player This year????

[Randle McMurphy]

Ricky Romero proved **** when he dominated the AL East and came up with a combined 7 WAR in his first two seasons. Or was that not enough for you?

hold on, who the **** said Ricky Romero was not a good pitcher? The only "disparaging" comment i made was him regressing as the season progresses and i'm not putting down Ricky by emphasizing the importance of minor league stats. I actually admire him even more given the unconventional path he's taken to the big leagues. I like Romero a lot, i was just making my case that Rzep could be just as good.

You've only spent the last page or so criticizing him and one of his major attributes as a pitcher (his durability).

And as I said, sure, if MILB stats were the only thing that mattered, then yes Rzep could be just as good as Romero. But the jump to the majors (and in particular, the AL East) is something that some pitchers can't handle that well. Who knows, maybe Rzep really is a 4 WAR pitcher over a full season....but no one can reasonably predict such a thing.

[Hoopstarr]

Romero was 12th in the AL in IP/GS, ahead of Weaver, Lackey, Lester, Buerhle, and Garza. He's a legit workhorse.

[Avenger]

I'm gonna downgrade my "certainly possible" to "possible" because Rzep has control problems.

but he also strikes out people at a good clip. At the risk of Randle getting emotional again(because its not my intention to disparage Romero), let me throw another stat comparison at you.

Ricky Romero career K/BB(by far the most important stat for pitchers): 1.96
Mark Rzep career K/BB: 1.95

Granted Rzep threw significantly fewer innings but he was also hurt for 1/3 of those innings.

I look at three things when i evaluate pitchers(this is what FIP, xFIP, CERA etc etc do anyways), Strikeouts, Walks and Groundball rate. There is very little distinction between Romero and Rzep in those three things, they have identical K/BB ratios and Rzep is also an extreme groundballer like Romero

[guvernator]

I think people seriously underrate/estimate Romero as a pitcher. To me he is a Cliff Lee (version 2.0) if he starts commanding his fastball better and I think you will see that this year. His peripherals are awesome - A groundball/strike out pitcher is a rare thing.

I think Romero will become a top 20 pitcher this year - This is my prediction.

[Avenger]

Remind me where Randy Ruiz is? Where is Jason Botts? Where is Ryan Shealy?

Remind me where Matt Bush is? Where is Bryan Bullington? Where is Russ Adams?

[guvernator]

I think people seriously underrate/estimate Romero as a pitcher. To me he is a Cliff Lee (version 2.0) if he starts commanding his fastball better and I think you will see that this year. His peripherals are awesome - A groundball/strike out pitcher is a rare thing. ( I understand Rzep showed those quality in the minors but until he displays that in the majors, its a mistake to even project him better than Romero).

I think Romero will become a top 20 pitcher this year - This is my prediction.

[Hoopstarr]

http://www.ghostrunneronfirst.com/2011/ ... lator.html

Ghostrunner compared Rzep to Gio Gonzalez, and he plays in a big time pitchers park. I would take that production from my 4/5 starter in a heartbeat.

[Randle McMurphy]

Ricky Romero career K/BB(by far the most important stat for pitchers): 1.96
Mark Rzep career K/BB: 1.95

Granted Rzep threw significantly fewer innings but he was also hurt for 1/3 of those innings.

I look at three things when i evaluate pitchers(this is what FIP, xFIP, CERA etc etc do anyways), Strikeouts, Walks and Groundball rate. There is very little distinction between Romero and Rzep in those three things, they have identical K/BB ratios and Rzep is also an extreme groundballer like Romero

Apart from the fact that, as you mentioned, Romero has pitched nearly 400 innings at the MLB level and Rzep has pitched 125, there is a huge difference in their HR/FB% and HR/9. Hitters seem to have a much easier time squaring up Rzep's pitches, at least when they guess right.

[Randle McMurphy]

http://www.ghostrunneronfirst.com/2011/01/fetch-me-polish-to-spanish-translator.html

Ghostrunner compared Rzep to Gio Gonzalez, and he plays in a big time pitchers park. I would take that production from my 4/5 starter in a heartbeat.

Surprisingly, I am not the anonymous advocating for Litsch in that thread.

[Avenger]

Apart from the fact that, as you mentioned, Romero has pitched nearly 400 innings at the MLB level and Rzep has pitched 125, there is a huge difference in their HR/FB% and HR/9. Hitters seem to have a much easier time squaring up Rzep's pitches, at least when they guess right.

that's an obvious statistical aberration, you can't strikeout that many guys and give up that many homeruns. Strikeouts are the single most reliable predictor of home runs allowed along with GB%, Rzep has both. Same thing happened with Danny Haren in the last couple of years and what do you know, his HR/FB% went down as it regressed to the mean over time and he moved out of that bandbox in AZ

The only things a pitcher has complete control over are his K, BB and GB% rates, those are the only things you can use to properly evaluate pitchers.

[Randle McMurphy]

The only things a pitcher has complete control over are his K, BB and GB% rates, those are the only things you can use to properly evaluate pitchers.

To an extent that's true, but that's a very narrow-minded way of looking at something that really isn't a science.

A lot of HR/9 is a product of GB% and park factors (not to mention level of competition), but some guys are simply better at keeping the ball in the park than others. While Romero has gotten a higher % of GBs (which can partially explain the difference), the fact that their HR/9 ratios are so different is statistically relevant and is something that should be watched next year.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Avenger brings up an interesting case with Rzep. He certainly has the resume and numbers to back up the potential as well as a sexy groundball rate, but really, he didn't get a fair shake yet. While you usually like to some sort of improvement, his 4.2 BB/9 isn't that terrible all things considering. The only thing with him is that he's still inconsistent and relies too much on his fastball.

Romero is further along the curve right now - he's much more consistent, also a groundball pitcher, strikes guys out, improving his walk rate and has a changeup that's been compared to Johan Santana. Some pitchers may not show a sexy strikeout rates in the minors, and actually improve when they're in the majors. He reminds me of an AL version of Wandy Rodriguez.

I think the main argument with Avenger is that he will eventually surpass Romero on the depth chart, while most of us are taking his argument to mean next year. I too believe there's a good chance he does overtake Romero on the depth chart - just not this year.

I think we're pretty lucky to be having this argument.

[Hoopstarr]

It's close enough that it comes down to makeup and durability. I think Romero has better makeup and has less risk because of his stocky build and easy arm action. Rzep is pretty slender and his sidearm release could be a problem. But if those are not an issue, then bully for us because lefty starters high K-rates are like unicorns.

[J-Roc]

Morrow. Far as I can tell, last season went exactly as planned by management, including his rest at the end. Hopefully there's a plan for him to stretch things out this year.

[Wally West]

Hitter: Snider
Pitcher: Morrow

There's no doubt in my mind that Snider will hit 30 or more homeruns this year. I also wouldn't sleep on Encarnacion in his new role. With him being limited to a 1st baseman/DH, we can expect big numbers from him especially now that he won't have the wear and tear or playing 3rd base inefficiently.

I think Morrow will be the pitcher to break out on the Blue Jays staff this year because he's gonna build on what he did toward the end of the season where he went I think 7-3 of I'm not mistaken with a 3.46 ERA and 119 strikeouts. If he had pitched the full 32 games last year, he easily would've had more than 200 strikeouts and potentially would've been in the top 10 in the league in strikeouts.