xx_skaterdude_xx wrote:HartfordWhalers wrote:xx_skaterdude_xx wrote:quote="HartfordWhalers"So Tyreke is a 28% 3 point shooter, and they were down 2. So roughly that shot gives them a 28% chance of winning outright.
Isn't that better than the alternative of passing it in to Cousins? Even a 50% fg with a 50% chance of winning in overtime would be worse; and I don't think Cousins is near 50%, or that most people would put overtime at 50-50 (Vegas had OKC by 4.5, no foul trouble, etc).
I could see an argument for being made that someone else didn't shoot a 3, or Tyreke didn't drive, but Cousins on the block wouldn't have made more sense in any way. Which is before considering the way that complaint happened./quote

Really I thought that was pretty clear.
Care to help and explain where you got lost, or disagree?
I'm confused because it sounds like you're saying it was a better chance for Evans, a 28% 3PT shooter, to make it over someone who shooting 43% for 2? If Donte inbounded the ball to Cousins, how do we know that he couldn't have immediately passed to Evans or another wing for a better looking shot?
Sure, it is a better chance to go to overtime. But a worse chance for winning the game.
A 43% chance to go to overtime would require a 65% chance of winning
if you get in overtime, just for it to be equal to a 28% chance of winning.
(And I don't think anyone would have Sac favored to win overtime, especially by that wide a percentage)