Study of Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list 1990-2003

Kaizen · Post #1 » by **Kaizen** » Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:01 pm

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1 ... #storyjump

DonYon · Post #2 » by **DonYon** » Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:23 pm

that is quite depressing... but not that surprising since baseball is so injury riddled, and one bad tweak or slump can ruin an entire career.

Post #3 » by **Schad** » Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:45 pm

Honestly, the success rate for position players is higher than imagined, especially at the top end...having one in three position players ranked (at some point) in the top 20 turn into 2.5+ WAR guys isn't that bad.

And on the pitchers, yeah...there's no such thing as a pitching prospect and all that.

Randle McMurphy · Post #4 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Feb 15, 2011 12:34 am

Yeah, this is why I wasn't exactly a fan of trading a proven, good pitcher in Marcum straight up for Lawrie. I understand the motivation of the deal, but prospects fail with regularity.

It seems to me that sometimes people take it for granted that these guys will pan out, and most of the time they just don't.

luvtheteam · Post #5 » by **luvtheteam** » Thu Feb 17, 2011 2:46 am

I used to study the top 100 lists years ago and one of the most important points to keep in mind is that a lot of guys make it to the big leagues...and are even all stars, and were never even on the top 100 list. I haven't followed the lists so much in recent years...but it wouldn't surprise me if Bautista was never on any top 100 lists and he was in the MVP discussions this year. How about John Buck who was the catcher at the all star game...again i wouldn't be surprised if he was never on any top 100 lists. And there's always many many more that make significant contributions in the majors that were never on any top 100 lists. BA does a great job, but the number of guys they miss is a lot!

I wonder if Thames will be on the top 100 list this year. I doubt it...yet he looks poised to be a solid hitter in the bigs. Sometimes they miss the really obvious guys because they focus a bit too much on upside. The hard working, grind it out type of guys that methodically pound away to make the bigs are often missed. As well, late bloomers get missed.

Was Adam lind ever on a top 100? Anyways, some of the guys i mention may have been, but just making the point, there are many others to find if you spend the time.