Double-down or fold?

[Fido]

Execs are monitoring the intentions of Houston, Portland and Utah -- all tax-paying teams that will be deciding whether to go deeper into the tax or pull back from it. Money is no object to the Rockets, as long as it makes them better -- and sources say their top priority is a young center to build around now that they can no longer rely on Yao Ming.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/14697636/trade-buzz-swap-not-only-way-melo-ends-up-with-knicks

What would you do at this point? I'm afraid at this point the team has the cards stacked against it:
- Rookie head coach
- Team star is not 100% (Deron)
- Lots of injuries (they were saying 9 players available for tonight's game? )
- Barely hanging on to 8th in the playoff seeding (although it is easy to move between 6-9 right now) with a playoff matchup of either Spurs, Mavericks, or if they are lucky....Lakers
- Heading in the wrong direction - 9 wins 14 losses since January 1 (39% winning percentage).

I'm expecting the decision to be salary dump to avoid the tax if they don't stand pat--which could also be the case. I know AK has really wanted to stay in Utah and said he would play at a discount next year but that was before Sloan left--and he was very close to him. I don't know if there is any other person you could really "dump" that would be much of a help unless it is someone like Price (not much savings) or maybe Miles since the team could drop the $3.7 mill team option for next year. Everyone else has too many years and money left.

I'm bracing for a "transition" year.

[hoops4life]

If they do fold, no wonder Sloan stepped down. The philosophy of management has really changed, if that be the case.

[Fido]

I don't believe their plans at the deadline had anything to do with Sloan's departure--but the departure should surely have an impact on their plans at the deadline. Can you envision them going further into the luxury tax right now?

[The59Sound]

Honestly, there's no legitimate reason for the owners to think they should double-down.

[TexJazz]

No reason to pay lux tax with such a crap bunch. They will dump if they can.

[TexJazz]

This bunch is train wreck plain and simple.

[HolyToledo]

AK-47 is gone if there is a taker to save $. Cavs want to improve their team and take on salary, so maybe they would take on salary such as Jefferson who has not worked out well for the Jazz.

This maybe the most disappointing season in Utah Jazz history!

[The59Sound]

Wait, we're trying to unload Jefferson for nothing? "Trade AK, save the tax money, and reload for next year" seems like a logical train of thought if you're the Millers. No need to just dump Al. Not like he's been atrocious of late.

[Ern III]

It seems to me the process of folding is well underway; we've now reached the question of the level of origami.

It's obvious that the club will forever be on a relative shoestring budget, so what's the good of retaining this lot and their massive salaries - Okur's and Kirilenko's, especially - if it's plain that the best they can hope for is a thrice-weekly struggle to ignominy?

Everyone ought to be on the trading block.

[retiredcoach]

The core of the team should be Millsap, Jefferson, Hayward, Evans, Watson and Williams, if he stays.

Okur, AK, Price. Elson, Miles, Bell and Fresenko should be available for trade, but they won't bring much with the exception of maybe Miles.

The only way for the Jazz to get better is to pick up a 2 who is a consistent shooter and at least one big that's a true defensive center and maybe 8 pts a game on offense. Those have to come through free agency or trades because there are no draft choices that can get it done.

Trades aren't likely to work out so free agency is it. Here are a few to speculate on.

Mike Dunleavy but he makes $10 mil. T.J. Ford, but he's been fading in Indiana. Eddy Curry makes $12 mil and he's getting up there for a big. Samuel Dalembert but he's a $12 mill guy who is over paid for his production. Kendrick Perkins can he had for around $5 or $6 mill a year. He's a better center than Fes, but he's not great. Glen Davis would be a decent pickup but he doesn't give the Jazz length for the price. Anthony Parker is younger than Bell and bigger. He's going to get $3 to $5 mil.

Tyson Chandler has the length, the defense and isn't too old, but he's a $12 to $15 mil guy and Dallas ain't going to let him go. Caron Butler would be a good replacement for AK, but he a $10 mil plus guy. If the Jazz can resign AK for $8, I would go with him, but the Nets will not let that happen.

Just think how exciting the off season will be waiting for the news of trades or free agency signings. If Williams stays the Jazz will get 50 plus wins next year with only one or two decent free agents.

I think the Jazz can win 50 plus games with a $65 mil payroll. The CBA soft or hard cap is going to be major issue. It's hard to sign players when you don't know the outcome of that issue.

[Effigy]

I think you try to make the playoffs this year at least. Doesn't Minnesota have your pick this year? Is there any protection on it? Even if there is, that just means you have to give it up when you're worse, right?

[QuantumMacgyver]

AK-47 is gone if there is a taker to save $. Cavs want to improve their team and take on salary, so maybe they would take on salary such as Jefferson who has not worked out well for the Jazz.

This maybe the most disappointing season in Utah Jazz history!

Look at Al's stats since we started crapping out as a team, he is definitely not to blame for it. He is one of the few players who is performing better. Him and AK. Al is a keeper at this point. Trading him now would be silly. In comparison look at CJ's stats since we tanked out. For instance he is shooting .265 from the 3 in February. If CJ were injured, we would be winning more games.

[JDubJazz]

There are no untouchables on this team. Right now Al Jefferson is the closest to it. Trading Deron could reap HUGE assets, so it has to be considered, though I can't picture it happening. Millsap, Miles, Bell, Hayward and Price should all be considered trade bait at this point.

AK must be moved, period. No matter how good he can be, he just can't be depended on to suit up on a regular basis. If NJN will take him for Murphy's smaller expiring deal, the Jazz should jump on that. Heck, Murphy is a decent rebounder and might actually work well next to Big AL, since he's a jump shooter (like Memo).

Sometimes, no matter how good a plan looks on paper, it just doesn't work in real life. Thats whats happened to the Jazz. BLOW IT UP.

[retiredcoach]

It's interesting how many fans think the Jazz have become the Cavs. Not hardly.

Things aren't as bad as they look. Williams healthy and one or two free agents and they're in good shape. They need a 2 and a true center.

The blow it up strategy is a major loser. It just isn't a good way to run a business and this is a business.

[JDubJazz]

It's interesting how many fans think the Jazz have become the Cavs. Not hardly.

Things aren't as bad as they look. Williams healthy and one or two free agents and they're in good shape. They need a 2 and a true center.

The blow it up strategy is a major loser. It just isn't a good way to run a business and this is a business.

From a business standpoint, its all ready blown up. The building is on fire and the fire trucks are stuck in traffic. The Jazz are losing home games. THAT IS THE BOTTOM LINE. Once your fans stop seeing good product in their arena, attendance is going to disappear. Look what happened in Sacramento.

[retiredcoach]

From a business standpoint, its all ready blown up. The building is on fire and the fire trucks are stuck in traffic. The Jazz are losing home games. THAT IS THE BOTTOM LINE. Once your fans stop seeing good product in their arena, attendance is going to disappear. Look what happened in Sacramento.

The Jazz are no where near that point. I think the LHM group has 2 years or so to fix the problems. If the team is winning less than 40 games a year and not making the playoffs by the end of the season in 2014, then the attendance may go down enough to hurt financially. Right now the Jazz have one of the highest per game attendance averages in the league. That won't change over a difficult season like this one. Ticket sales aren't the problem. It's television revenue. Small market TV cash flow is tiny compared to large market TV.

If revenue sharing doesn't change, then large market teams will be able to buy all the talent they want. That's not good for the game.

One free agent or two, healthy players and some practice time and the Jazz are right back in the hunt. Teams don't come back from 20 pts down against the teams the Jazz beat early in the season if they don't have talent. The Jazz team chemistry and mental attitude got sideways, and before it could right itself, injuries, power struggles and finger pointing broke out. That will all get put back in the box sometime between the last 20 games of the season and next year.

The more troubling question for me is what will a lockout do to the process of repairing these problems?

[JDubJazz]

Relying on Free Agents to solve the problem is not a great idea. You have to have cap space to sign free agents (the Jazz have none, even after AK expires) and secondly, this isn't a prime FA destination.

In order to create the cap space necessary to get some free agents next year, we will have to trade some players for expiring deals. I think its is much more likely that we "blow it up" and trade a few of the key pieces fans have fallen in love with (AK, Millsap, Memo) in order to get a better mix of talent.

[retiredcoach]

Relying on Free Agents to solve the problem is not a great idea. You have to have cap space to sign free agents (the Jazz have none, even after AK expires) and secondly, this isn't a prime FA destination.

In order to create the cap space necessary to get some free agents next year, we will have to trade some players for expiring deals. I think its is much more likely that we "blow it up" and trade a few of the key pieces fans have fallen in love with (AK, Millsap, Memo) in order to get a better mix of talent.

I agree that free agents aren't the best solution, but there are no draft choices worth much. As far as trades go AK, Memo and Miles are about it. I doubt Memo will ever recover to his pre-injury level. Bigs rarely do after this kind of serious injury. AK is gone anyway so his only value is the cap space. I don't see Miles getting the Jazz much because of his inconsistency. He's been with the Jazz for 6 years. No one is going to "fix" his poor shot selection and tendency to chuck 3's at the wrong time.

Bell, Elson, Price and Fes aren't worth much, at least nothing that's going to make the Jazz better. The only high value player the Jazz could trade is Williams. The problem is no one is going to take the trade unless Williams agrees to a contract extension.

Another big problem is Memo is owed $11 mil next year and I think he's only going to be a $5 mil level player. He's not a true center so he only helps a little with the size problem.

One workable combination, if the Nets or someone else doesn't over bid, is to resign AK at his true market value of $8 or $9 mil a year, lose Memo for whatever anyone is willing to give, and take Memo's $11 mil and AK's $9 mil and go after a true big who can play center for $15 mil a year. Any money left should be used to find a 2. But there's a low probability of resigning AK for that price. He needs a reason to take less money with another team so his ego can be salvaged.

Joel Przybilla if an $8 mill center with defensive skills. Tyson Chandler is a good defensive center but he's had injury problems, and he'll go for $10 mil or more. Troy Murphy in an AK deal with the Nets would probably work out, if both are willing to sign extensions. One problem is Murphy thinks he's worth more than he is. In addition, without moving Memo, it would be hard to fix the 2 problem.

If the Jazz get their big and have $10 plus mill left, Jamal Crawford might be available. He would be much better as a sixth man than Miles. (if the Jazz could only get so lucky)

How about Williams for Tony Parker and Tiago Splitter. Then there's Yao Ming. What's few injuries if you've got Ming? Of course he'll break somebody's piggy bank.

So many possibilities so little time and only $20 mil. Playing the what if game is easy when it's not your money you have to bet on these guys!

[Neon Black]

The Jazz' issues can be solved with the acquisition of a couple solid role players (a consistent 2 and a decent defensive big man...I'd love Perkins), the development of Hayward/Evans and Deron recovering from his annoying injury.

I really believe we have a great core, I'm not as lost on this team as some.

[countrybama24]

Wait, we're trying to unload Jefferson for nothing? "Trade AK, save the tax money, and reload for next year" seems like a logical train of thought if you're the Millers. No need to just dump Al. Not like he's been atrocious of late.

The problem is you don't "reload" for next year by trading away assets to dump salary. We're f***ed.