Blue Jays get Extension With Jose Bautista 5yrs/64 mill

[Hoopstarr]

-Ask anyone you know if they would disagree with that principle.
-No seriously, what's your point about MLBTR?
-Adam Dunn is not an average 1B and there aren't plenty who can do what he does, but good luck with that argument. Basically you're saying he was only slightly better than Lyle Overbay. This is the problem with dogmatic usage of one stat.
-You are still assuming Bautista will stay at 3B
-Beltre got 5/80 unless you think he can reach 1200 PAs in his age 35/36 seasons (not likely). He has had more than one great year. And he will most likely continue to hit well in Texas because he always has outside of Safeco and Dodger Stadium (100 point home/away OPS split). We can nitpick like this forever.
-I'm bored with this

[Randle McMurphy]

-Ask anyone you know if they would disagree with that principle.

You just made it up right now (after much confusion, I should add), it's not a "principle." Though I bet if I knew AA (or any of the analysts in favor of the deal), they'd disagree with it and say it depends on the player.

-No seriously, what's your point about MLBTR?

You haven't done much reading of the comments sections on those sites, have you?

-Adam Dunn is not an average 1B and there aren't plenty who can do what he does, but good luck with that argument. Basically you're saying he was only slightly better than Lyle Overbay. This is the problem with dogmatic usage of one stat.

Well the stats suggest that he is (9th last year and 16th over the last three years is the definition of AVG). Overbay is a below average 1B and in decline, hence his contract. Though this is all semantics...if Dunn could play 3B like Bautista, he'd make more money. That's the difference here and I'm not sure what there is to debate.

-You are still assuming Bautista will stay at 3B

He's a 3B this year and for the foreseeable future (and it's actually the best position for him, so I don't see why they would make a change). That's not an assumption, that's just the way it is.

-Beltre got 5/80 unless you think he can reach 1200 PAs in his age 35/36 seasons (not likely).

Considering he's been one of the most durable players in baseball this decade, I wouldn't put that past him at all. And his previous great year came in 2004, so I would doubt any team would have taken that into consideration in any future projection. Are you saying, though, that you would have rather signed Beltre to more money over Bautista because he has a track record for being an above-average 3B (not sure I'd disagree)? Or just that a Bautista coming off two good years couldn't get that kind of contract and more (definitely disagree)?

-I'm bored with this

Stop if you want, but this is only the beginning for me.

[Hoopstarr]

-I said "I don't like long contracts". Once again, who would disagree with me? AA wouldn't be able to name a player that it's been done with. Who are all these analysts decidedly in favor? Everyone except you is somewhere in the middle--fair amount of risk/cautiously optimistic--or worse. Your big example of Dave Cameron specifically made points counter to your main ones.
-What exactly is your point about MLBTR? It's the most useless statement, like "elections don't matter because people are stupid". What are some comment sections that you do like?
-Jose is only playing 3B out of necessity. There is no indication he's there past 2011. Lawrie is slotted to take over when he comes up.
-For one, you are using Adam Dunn's OF years (which kill his WAR) in a 1B ranking. More incredibly, you are doing it to equate Adam Dunn with Lyle Overbay.
-You realize that rehashing the same points and making increasingly wild statements to have the last word doesn't make you "win", right? Debate isn't a war of attrition despite what you may have learned. If you're just beginning, go ahead and make a point you haven't already made dozens of times all over the blogosphere.

[Randle McMurphy]

I guess you weren't that bored with this after all, eh?

-I said "I don't like long contracts".

No, that's actually the first time you've said that in those terms. You've been waffling around for a while now, but at least now we're getting to the crux of your argument. So you're saying you are one of those people that would be content if the Jays ran their organization like Tampa and never re-upped anybody in the long-term?

Once again, who would disagree with me? AA wouldn't be able to name a player that it's been done with.

What's been done with? A long-term contract? Well, I'm sure he could name plenty of those. If it's long-term contracts with players with short track records, well I'll say it again...it all depends on the player.

Who are all these analysts decidedly in favor? Everyone except you is somewhere in the middle--fair amount of risk/cautiously optimistic--or worse. Your big example of Dave Cameron specifically made points counter to your main ones.

Both BP and FG (two major sabermetric sites that you have posted in the past to validate trades and contracts) have written articles in favor of this deal. You know very well who the authors of these posts are because I know you've read them.

And I've never said I was ecstatic over the terms of this deal (in fact, I think I posted I was hoping for 4/50 a while back), I just don't consider it to be a problem at all for the Jays.

It's the most useless statement, like "elections don't matter because people are stupid".

The meaning of any vote depends on who the voters are.

-Jose is only playing 3B out of necessity. There is no indication he's there past 2011. Lawrie is slotted to take over when he comes up.

You sure about that? Everything I've read about Lawrie suggests he has a corner outfield spot in his future.

-For one, you are using Adam Dunn's OF years (which kill his WAR) in a 1B ranking.

He played 1B in 2008 and 2009, did he not? Either way, it doesn't matter whether he's the 9th best 1B in the league or the 15th, he's still not going to get a contract like Bautista because he can't play 3B.

More incredibly, you are doing it to equate Adam Dunn with Lyle Overbay.

What? I didn't bring up Lyle Overbay, you did for some odd reason.

-You realize that rehashing the same points and making increasingly wild statements to have the last word doesn't make you "win", right?

Hey, I'm not the guy who has backtracked repeatedly and still can't decide what my actual "principle" is two pages into it.

Debate isn't a war of attrition despite what you may have learned.

Sure, but why are you still posting then? It's funny when people pretend they are above arguments like this and yet continue to play their part in them.

If you're just beginning, go ahead and make a point you haven't already made dozens of times all over the blogosphere.

I would say the same for you, but this thread has really brought out some pretty ridiculous, nonsensical statements that I hadn't seen anywhere before.

[Hoopstarr]

-I didn't backtrack on anything. Here you go: viewtopic.php?p=26838379#p26838379.

-I am all for spending big, much bigger than this, but on great bets and in the right situation. This one is questionable in timing and # of years. As for extensions, one can only wish we could extend home-grown players like Tampa does. 6/18 for Longoria (!), 4/11 for Shields, 4/18 for Zobrist. AA did great with Hill and Lind but could've done better with Romero considering the standard AA set.

-Fangraphs and BP don't write editorials. They have many writers with different opinions. But anyway, the one you're talking about, Dave Cameron's piece (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -cashes-in), basically countered all of your main points with the ones I'm making .

With all that said, I’m still not sure I’d have done this deal if I was Toronto. I don’t think it’s crazy, but I do wonder if it was necessary....
---
We can essentially throw out the three position players who landed the largest contracts this winter, as Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, and Adrian Beltre all have significant edges in defensive value and much longer track records of success. Even if Bautista followed up with a strong 2011 season, he wouldn’t be able to sell himself as an all around player, so a Werth-like contract was probably out of reach.

Instead, the best comparables from this winter seem to be Adam Dunn, Victor Martinez, and Paul Konerko. All three are players whose primary expected future value comes from their abilities at the plate. Bautista is a better defensive player than either Dunn or Konerko, but he doesn’t have their track record of success.
---
However, for me, I’m not sure Toronto got enough of a discount on his expected free agent price to absorb the extra risk of doing this deal now. If my option was take this deal now or let him play out 2011 and re-evaluate at the end of the year, I think I would have waited.

So where are you seeing the ardent praise in that piece? I have nearly the same opinion and you said it was a fair piece too. And while we're appealing to authority, Keith Law and Jonah Keri didn't like it either. Additionally, BtB, a source that you (and I) cite often has two guys who don't like it. Don't think any other notables have chimed in.

-Adam Dunn had 19 and 67 games at 1B in 08/09.
-I brought up Lyle Overbay because he was the next guy after Dunn in the ranking you cited, (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 2008&ind=0). So apparently Dunn was only slighter better (0.4) than Overbay from 2008-2010!

[Randle McMurphy]

-I didn't backtrack on anything. Here you go: viewtopic.php?p=26838379#p26838379.

I wasn't referring to your stance on the Bautista contract, that has remained the same throughout. The specifications of your "principle," though, had continued to change, until you eventually decided that you just don't like long-term contracts at all.

-I am all for spending big, much bigger than this, but on great bets and in the right situation. This one is questionable in timing and # of years.

We've been over this, but this was realistically the only time the Jays were going to be able to sign Bautista long-term. They wanted this guy and decided to take a bit of a risk to secure him going forward. It's really not unlike many of the moves AA has made over the last year, except this time he is only risking money and not players to get his man.

-Fangraphs and BP don't write editorials. They have many writers with different opinions.

And you know who the writers were of the articles that I referred to.

But anyway, the one you're talking about, Dave Cameron's piece (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -cashes-in), basically countered all of your main points with the ones I'm making . So where are you seeing the ardent praise in that piece? I have nearly the same opinion and you said it was a fair piece too.

You've conveniently ignored the later piece (that I actually posted in this thread, I think) where Cameron shifted his stance more in favor of the deal on the strength of Bautista's talents as a player.

And while we're appealing to authority, Keith Law and Jonah Keri didn't like it either.

I only brought up those authorities (BP, FG) because I know that you've done that in the past to justify a deal. Not because I've based my opinion on them (and you would know that because my immediate reaction to the deal was fairly positive).

Additionally, BtB, a source that you (and I) cite often has two guys who don't like it.

I'm not sure I can take any source seriously that compares Jose Bautista as a player to Rich Aurilla (solely on the basis of a high WAR season in completely different run-scoring eras) and uses that as a justification for why a deal is poor.

-Adam Dunn had 19 and 67 games at 1B in 08/09.
-I brought up Lyle Overbay because he was the next guy after Dunn in the ranking you cited, (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 2008&ind=0). So apparently Dunn was only slighter better (0.4) than Overbay from 2008-2010!

Looks like Dunn's awful defense took a hit at his value. That can do that.

Did you miss the part of my post, though, where I said it didn't matter where Dunn was on the spectrum between 9th-16th at the position? Either way, he's never getting the kind of money of a potentially elite 3B/OF.

[DonYon]

mental jack nicholson thread pwnage ftw

[Hoopstarr]

Just did some research and here are some more notable writers who are against it. Jay Jaffe of BP told YOU in a long Twitter convo that he didn't like it (http://twitter.com/#!/jay_jaffe). John Perrotto, also of BP, said "glad it's not my money". And yet you put all of BP in the pro category as if it's an editorial entity based on? Ken Davidoff said it was "spit take" worthy. Craig Calcaterra made a couple snarky tweets against it. Not saying any of these are right but then I'm not the one appealing to authority here.

And I don't know what you mean about using articles to justify moves. I've probably just posted links like you did, to spread information. Are you saying I form opinions based on them (why is that bad?), because I haven't done that either, nor did I ever accuse you of it so I don't get why you even brought this up. Although you did do exactly that here, having Cameron speaking for all of FG and I'm guessing Kahrl for BP?

As for Cameron, I didn't ignore anything. I actually just read his follow-up now and I agree with it but it doesn't reverse the main point of the first one. And with BtB you can't take them seriously because you disagree? Isn't that exactly what you're falsely accusing me of doing? Again, you're still treating every site as having a singular opinion.

[Randle McMurphy]

Just did some research and here are some more notable writers who are against it. Jay Jaffe of BP told YOU in a long Twitter convo that he didn't like it (http://twitter.com/#!/jay_jaffe).

Oh, don't remind me. Talk about arrogance, narrow-mindedness, and over-reliance on pre-season projection systems.

And yet you put all of BP in the pro category as if it's an editorial entity based on? Ken Davidoff said it was "spit take" worthy. Craig Calcaterra made a couple snarky tweets against it. Not saying any of these are right but then I'm not the one appealing to authority here.

Now you appear to be constructing straw men. I never suggested every BP and FG writer had the same opinion, far from it, nor did I ever appeal to authority in this thread.

And I don't know what you mean about using articles to justify moves. I've probably just posted links like you did, to spread information. Are you saying I form opinions based on them (why is that bad?), because I haven't done that either, nor did I ever accuse you of it so I don't get why you even brought this up. Although you did do exactly that here, having Cameron speaking for all of FG and I'm guessing Kahrl for BP?

Again, I only brought it up because I'd seen you post articles from those websites to support your opinions before and I noticed you weren't doing it this time (for obvious reasons). You're reading a lot more into this action than there actually is.

As for Cameron, I didn't ignore anything. I actually just read his follow-up now and I agree with it but it doesn't reverse the main point of the first one.

Well he did pretty much change his stance after further analysis, but obviously there is still risk involved. I've never denied that. I just think it's a risk worth taking.

And with BtB you can't take them seriously because you disagree?

Not because I disagree, but because it's a poorly thought out, lazy comparison, and anyone who has taken the time to learn about the two players' skillsets and the eras in which they had their breakout seasons would know that.

[Hoopstarr]

You said "both BP and FG, two major sabermetric sites (FG and BP), have written articles in favor of this deal", making it sound like they're all in favor. Anyway, the point is that it's 50/50 at best.

[darth_federer]

Epic circlejerk.

I think the Jays should have had more control over that contract (option years and whatnot). I wouldnt have done 5 years but we ll see how it turns out a few years from now.

[Randle McMurphy]

You said "both BP and FG, two major sabermetric sites (FG and BP), have written articles in favor of this deal", making it sound like they're all in favor.

Right, and they did. It was never my intention to insinuate that every writer employed had the same opinion.

Anyway, the point is that it's 50/50 at best.

It might be, but I can't say I care about the "experts" in this situation (especially when so many of them are making arguments built on poor assumptions and weak comparisons).

Sometimes you have to take risks to keep (or acquire) potentially elite players, and that's exactly what happened here. Only, instead of risking a good player (like Shawn Marcum, for example), we're only risking Rogers' cash.

[Michael Bradley]

That's the part that makes most sense to me about this deal. Bautista, based on 2010 alone, is an elite player, and since that type of player is sitting on Toronto's lap and only requires money to keep long-term, then it makes sense to take that chance. I don't think anyone disagrees with that. We need bats like Bautista circa-2010 in order to compete.

The years and what to expect from Bautista from 2011-2015 are really the main sticking points here. I think Jose has turned the corner and is better than what he produced pre-2010 due to his swing change and improved plate patience (that was there in 2009 as well), but I think you can go through a huge list of players who had one outlier season and proceeded to fall back to earth afterwards. It happens all the time. Bautista, if he were to remain a top player going forward, would be the exception, not the norm. Players just don't magically become elite at age 30 (assuming no PED's are involved).

Obviously since AA was behind acquiring Bautista in the first place and now is behind locking him up, then he feels Jose is for real. I hope he is right. At this point if Jose in his 30's can hit like Jermaine Dye did from 2005-onwards, then I'd be thrilled. 30-ish HR's, .850-ish OPS, can play 3B and RF....I'd take that.

[VCman11]

To put things in perspective, I would rather give Bautista $13M/yr for a shorter term (5 years) than wait one year and have to pay Jayson Werth-type money ($18M/yr) for a longer term (7 years). Even if Bautista ends up becoming a 30 HR type guy, I still think its a great deal.

[gamer4Life]

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=5397755

[Randle McMurphy]

mental jack nicholson thread pwnage ftw

Yeah, even more so now that Bautista is on perhaps the greatest offensive start in the history of baseball and already at 4.0 WAR.

AA's deal with Bautista may be the best thing he's done with the Jays and that includes some pretty great moves.

[Sifu]

If Jose keeps at this pace for the rest of the season, he could be a total bust for the rest of the contract and still be worth it.

[Michael Bradley]

Absolutely. I was afraid of the years and regression, but Bautista is a statistical anomaly and I'm glad AA had the foresight to make this long-term deal happen. Many other GM's could have went with one year and took their chances, but thankfully AA and Bautista were able to work something out at the last second. I can't imagine what state this franchise would be in if Bautista were a few months away from free agency right now.

[Schad]

Absolutely. I was afraid of the years and regression, but Bautista is a statistical anomaly and I'm glad AA had the foresight to make this long-term deal happen. Many other GM's could have went with one year and took their chances, but thankfully AA and Bautista were able to work something out at the last second. I can't imagine what state this franchise would be in if Bautista were a few months away from free agency right now.

Agreed. I still have questions about his ability to sustain his bat speed through his mid-30s, but if he hits like this for the first 2-3 years and falls off thereafter, you're still getting ridiculous value. I had expected some regression this year, but it's becoming clear that it ain't coming.