Baseball America's Top 100 prospects

Kaizen · Post #1 » by **Kaizen** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 4:55 pm

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/pr ... 11316.html

#29 Kyle Drabek
#36 Travis D'Arnaud
#40 Brett Lawrie
#95 Deck McGuire

Disappointing we do not have more on their list.

zong · Post #2 » by **zong** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 5:32 pm

I'm impressed that the Royals have 5 in the Top20... how valuable is this site's projections/opinion anyway?

luvtheteam · Post #3 » by **luvtheteam** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 5:50 pm

Interesting that they've got Chris Sale as #20 and Deck McGuire as #95. Recall that we took McGuire 2 spots ahead of the White Sox taking Sale. Did our team of scouts really miss that one? And by such as signficant margin? It's not like they had Sale at #80 or something and you could brush it off. This will be interesting to follow but i'm still betting we got the right guy but not feeling so confident about it.

I do notice that the White sox only have 2 guys in the top 100, so maybe they are overstating Sale a bit as a courtesy to the Sox. JMT.

luvtheteam · Post #4 » by **luvtheteam** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 6:01 pm

From the chat:

Chris (NM): I'm (a little) surprised to not see Arencibia anywhere. What made him miss?

Jim Callis: There's still some question as to how usable is power will be in the big leaguers, and how good his defense will be. He made one Top 100 list and five Top 150s.

Here's an example where they just miss it IMO. Arencibia will be the starting catcher this year, and you can be sure 50 guys from this list won't even see the Bigs. Thames will be playing in the outfield this year as well i bet. It's a bit of 'High Upside' gaming at the expense of the sure bets....so this is why i don't get to distressed about these lists.

Post #5 » by **Schad** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 6:10 pm

luvtheteam wrote:Interesting that they've got Chris Sale as #20 and Deck McGuire as #95. Recall that we took McGuire 2 spots ahead of the White Sox taking Sale. Did our team of scouts really miss that one? And by such as signficant margin? It's not like they had Sale at #80 or something and you could brush it off. This will be interesting to follow but i'm still betting we got the right guy but not feeling so confident about it.

Sale made the majors in the same season he was drafted, and was pretty damned good out of the Sox 'pen. McGuire has yet to pitch a professional inning. As such, it's not too big a shock that Sale is ranked far above McGuire at this point.

Plus, a good many people considered Sale the better prospect prior to the draft...he fell over concerns about whether he was a starter or reliever (still unanswered), and whether his frail form and odd delivery would lead to injury problems.

luvtheteam · Post #6 » by **luvtheteam** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 6:21 pm

Schazz....and yet look at this:

Greggy G (Ohio): Jameson Taillon at #11 without throwing a pitch in pro ball? Outrageous!

Jim Callis: How is that outrageous? Bryce Harper only had a handful of at-bats in the AFL, which isn't true competition. We're picking the best players in the future, not the best guys who have made their pro debuts. Taillon was a consensus top-three prospect in the 2010 draft, the Pirates would have taken him with the No. 1 overall choice, and he has some of the best pure stuff in the minors. I'll gladly take one of those.

As well, BA has mentioned in the past that they won't even rank guys that project into the bullpen, though i see they've got Chapman high on the list so i'm not so clear about their policy anymore.

Post #7 » by **Schad** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 6:35 pm

luvtheteam wrote:Schazz....and yet look at this:

Greggy G (Ohio): Jameson Taillon at #11 without throwing a pitch in pro ball? Outrageous!

Jim Callis: How is that outrageous? Bryce Harper only had a handful of at-bats in the AFL, which isn't true competition. We're picking the best players in the future, not the best guys who have made their pro debuts. Taillon was a consensus top-three prospect in the 2010 draft, the Pirates would have taken him with the No. 1 overall choice, and he has some of the best pure stuff in the minors. I'll gladly take one of those.

Definitely. However, what I'm pointing out is that Sale was both considered a superior prospect prior to the draft by many, and he had a terrific start to his pro career to boost his stock.

Taillon is at #11 because he's an absolute beast; had he pitched last summer after being drafted and excelled, he'd be in the top 10.

As well, BA has mentioned in the past that they won't even rank guys that project into the bullpen, though i see they've got Chapman high on the list so i'm not so clear about their policy anymore.

Neither Chapman nor Sale project exclusively as relievers; in fact, both would see their value drastically lowered if they were bullpen-only. The Sox used Sale out of the 'pen because he was useful in a pennant chase and they got a bargain on his draft bonus by promising to do so (smart move by Sale; by getting his service clock started faster, he'll make more long-run), but they're likely to transition him back to starting.

ItsDanger · Post #8 » by **ItsDanger** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 7:16 pm

baseball america goes way back. more reliable than some of the internet hacks these days.

luvtheteam · Post #9 » by **luvtheteam** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 7:18 pm

Well, i'm sure the jays scouts had their reasoning. Who knows, maybe if Deck had pitched he could have impressed more so he's more unknown.....obviously not the beast that Taillon is. I'm still believing we got the right guy regardless of what BA is saying. Got to stick up for the scouts till proven wrong!

luvtheteam · Post #10 » by **luvtheteam** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 7:25 pm

Oh look....they answered my question in the chat!

colin (toronto): Sale at #20 and Mcguire at #95? Did jays scouts really miss that one?

J.J. Cooper: McGuire has a better chance to be a starter than Sale, so it's a question of what you are looking for, but all through the 2010 leadup to the draft, Sale was considered one of the top two college pitching prospects in the draft (along with Drew Pomeranz). McGuire was considered part of the next tier.

Yeah...and the thing is you know that Sale was totally on the radar of the jays as well and i'm sure they had a good look at him. Here's where you earn your stripes i guess. They must have had their reasons, not the least of which would be Sale possibly projecting into the bullpen. No way the jays would waste their top pick on a guy that may head to the bullpen, unless he really had lights out stuff i suppose like Chapman. And in the post draft talks, i think AA said they were all pretty unanimous on Mcguire. I guess BA begs to differ, and i'm sure Sale getting the exposure he did in the minors and bigs last year helped promote his cause. Another one of these we'll just have to give it time to see how it all lands.

Hoopstarr · Post #11 » by **Hoopstarr** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 7:43 pm

I'm still disappointed about not drafting the other Sale, the hitter (#88). He ended up in Tampa and he has a higher ceiling while Deck might be a #3 at best unless he takes on some Mike Minor level of blooming.

Hoopstarr · Post #12 » by **Hoopstarr** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 7:45 pm

ItsDanger wrote:baseball america goes way back. more reliable than some of the internet hacks these days.

You should read this http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2010/11/1 ... ospecting/

luvtheteam · Post #13 » by **luvtheteam** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 8:59 pm

Hoopstarr wrote:
ItsDanger wrote:baseball america goes way back. more reliable than some of the internet hacks these days.

You should read this http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2010/11/1 ... ospecting/

Interesting read and especially the comments below! Though i know thru experience the top prospect listings are hit and miss, and i don't take them so seriously, i tend to cut BA a lot of slack because i think they provide one hell of a service. It sure is exciting everytime these lists come out. We don't have to agree with them all the time and it's certainly a very difficult task to rank young kids at anything. Overall, i wouldn't want to be without them.

Post #14 » by **Schad** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:00 pm

Hoopstarr wrote:I'm still disappointed about not drafting the other Sale, the hitter (#88). He ended up in Tampa and he has a higher ceiling while Deck might be a #3 at best unless he takes on some Mike Minor level of blooming.

Yeah, I preferred both Sales to Deck, but I think that we're going to regret passing on Sally the most.

Avenger · Post #15 » by **Avenger** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 10:16 pm

Baseball America over the years has become notorious for its Skankee/Red Sux bias, i understand their fans comprise a good portion of their readership but its becoming a joke.

luvtheteam · Post #16 » by **luvtheteam** » Thu Feb 24, 2011 3:37 pm

Couple other Jays related Q&A from the chat:

Ken Morrison (slave lake AB CA): JJ: thx for the Chat , As always a great day in the BA world . the Yankees put 6 guys on the list and the Jays 4 yet in the handbook the Jays farm rated higher, obviously due to depth Was Gose , Stewart ,and Carlos Perez all top 150,s

J.J. Cooper: Gose, Stewart, Arencibia, Perez and Wojciechowski all got Top 150 votes. You hit on the reason the Blue Jays rated higher.

Chris (NM): I'm (a little) surprised to not see Arencibia anywhere. What made him miss?

Jim Callis: There's still some question as to how usable is power will be in the big leaguers, and how good his defense will be. He made one Top 100 list and five Top 150s.

luvtheteam · Post #17 » by **luvtheteam** » Thu Feb 24, 2011 3:40 pm

Also...they added a nice piece on the top catchers:

Full-season Catchers
Travis d'Arnaud (36) vs. Tony Sanchez (46) vs. Wilin Rosario (49) vs. Devin Mesoraco (64) vs. Derek Norris (72)

Devin Mesoraco
J.J. Cooper: Do you like ceiling or certainty? It's hard to believe that Sanchez won't end up being a solid big league catcher with his solid work behind the plate and a good plan at the plate, but d'Arnaud's tools give him a better chance to be a future all-star. Mesoraco's upside could be just as high as d'Arnaud's, but I couldn't stomach ranking him close to the Blue Jays' prospect. As great as Mesoraco's 2010 season was, you can't just discount his struggles over the previous 21⁄2 years or his problems with injuries, so I think 64 is just about right.

Jim Callis: If you don't believe Jesus Montero can stay behind the plate, and you want to see some more out of Gary Sanchez, then the best catching prospect in the minors is part of this group. I'll go with Rosario, and I think it would be a very easy call had he not torn the ACL in his right knee last August. I think he's going to hit .275 with at least 15-20 homers per year, he's a quality defender and he's athletic for a catcher. d'Arnaud is similar, but Rosario is a slightly better defender and has proven himself at a higher level. Sanchez is the best defensive catcher in the minors.

John Manuel: I went with d'Arnaud because he's the youngest in this group, and he's the best defender who also has a chance to have an impact bat. You could flip the order around, though, and defend it. Mesoraco had the best 2010 but his prior track record was shady, and I never saw him receive well when I saw him in September (International League playoffs) and November (Arizona Fall League).

Matt Eddy: A catcher who can receive and throw will be given a long leash at the big league level to iron out his offensive game. That's why d'Arnaud, Tony Sanchez and Rosario are on another plane for me—they all receive 60-70 grades for defense and throwing. While questions remain about Rosario's bat, both d'Arnaud and Sanchez have demonstrated the hitting approach and bat speed to succeed at the highest level.