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How do you fix this team?

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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#121 » by Ruzious » Tue Mar 1, 2011 1:21 pm

JonathanJoseph wrote:
Nivek wrote:
There's BIG question about whether Blatche played winning basketball last season. A team cannot win anything significant with a guy using so many possessions so inefficiently. The "looked like an All-Star" thing was deceiving. He scored a lot because he shot a lot. His rebounding was pretty ordinary. And he has regressed significantly from that "good" stretch.

Honestly, if he was playing this season exactly the way he did post-trade last season, he'd be a disappointment. They needed him to improve on what he did last year. He got worse.
This is where I think statistics are limited. Blatche was killing teams by himself. A team that had far less talent than the current Wizards finished the season on a 5-4 stretch in April during which BOTH Blatche and Shaun Livingston were playing all-star caliber ball. I don't care what the numbers say, the offense was running through Blatche and he averaged over 5 assists per game during that run.

Neither Blatche nor Livingston is playing anywhere close to the caliber of ball they were playing at the end of last season.

5 assists a game is great for a PF, but considering the offense was consistently run through him - getting 5 assists is kind of pedestrian. And towards the end of the season, a lot of teams have already packed it in and had very little to play for. But it's good to see Livingston has stayed healthy enough to play all season. His assists are very low this season, but look at the team he's playing for. They have even less offense than the Wiz - Stephen Jackson is basically their only consistent scoring threat. :o
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#122 » by Nivek » Tue Mar 1, 2011 4:45 pm

JonathanJoseph wrote:
Nivek wrote:
There's BIG question about whether Blatche played winning basketball last season. A team cannot win anything significant with a guy using so many possessions so inefficiently. The "looked like an All-Star" thing was deceiving. He scored a lot because he shot a lot. His rebounding was pretty ordinary. And he has regressed significantly from that "good" stretch.

Honestly, if he was playing this season exactly the way he did post-trade last season, he'd be a disappointment. They needed him to improve on what he did last year. He got worse.
This is where I think statistics are limited. Blatche was killing teams by himself. A team that had far less talent than the current Wizards finished the season on a 5-4 stretch in April during which BOTH Blatche and Shaun Livingston were playing all-star caliber ball. I don't care what the numbers say, the offense was running through Blatche and he averaged over 5 assists per game during that run.

Neither Blatche nor Livingston is playing anywhere close to the caliber of ball they were playing at the end of last season.


Efficiency matters. Throughout his career, Baltche has been inefficient. That didn't change over the last 30 games of last season. He surged a bit, then dropped back off. This season, he's off a bit more. But, as nate put it so succinctly, Blatche's entire career has been a "slump" by the standards of a good NBA offensive player. The "30 games" last season exception a) was only a little better than average efficiency, and b) didn't even last 30 games. I posted some numbers on a thread here somewhere. I could dig 'em up again, though I suspect they won't persuade you of anything. We're probably at an "agree to disagree" stage.

I think Baltche is a classic lure -- a tantalizing talent that fans/coaches/execs always think is about to turn the corner and become a good player. But, he's never going to turn that corner. He's never going to become a reliable core player. He's never going to truly tap that potential. Not unless he grows up, starts applying his assets to the game with some intelligence, and starts taking responsibility for his play instead of defending himself and blaming others for the team's failings. (For an example of that, see Mike Lee's story about last night's game.)

My prediction is that the Wizards will never win anything of consequence (division title, playoff series, championship) with Blatche playing a significant role. And, I predict we'll be having basically this same conversation every year for as long as he's with the team. And further, that if the Wizards are able to trade him, fans of his new team will have this conversation for as long as he's there.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#123 » by verbal8 » Tue Mar 1, 2011 5:06 pm

By the numbers, Blatche this year looks disturbingly similar to Yi last year :(

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=jianlyi01&y1=2010&p2=blatcan01&y2=2011


I think Blatche is better because he plays at least passable defense, but he doesn't look much like the building block of a good team.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#124 » by verbal8 » Tue Mar 1, 2011 6:03 pm

I think the Wizards need to drastically improve the forward positions.

If Shakur pans out as a decent back-up then the PG position is set. Hopefully Young is signed to a decent deal which would provide some competence at SG. My plan B would be do a sign and trade to get a young vet on a reasonable deal. Hopefully Crawford can develop as the 3rd guard.

There is a chance that Blatche might "get it" but I don't think that should be the expectation. Lewis is decent, but not a part of the long term plans. With Lewis in the fold, the Wizards can afford to get some talented but not NBA ready player at SF. At PF it would be nice to get someone who can play from day 1.

I hope Seraphin is the Center of the future, given his work ethic and inexperience there is hope and there is some time. McGee is a wild card and I think the Wizards can take some time on him.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#125 » by Zonkerbl » Tue Mar 1, 2011 6:06 pm

If Kevin develops that gives the zards a lot more options. I like that Kevin is 275. I like his footwork and his hook shot, I like his help defense. Give him some burn over the next twenty games, if he becomes starter material then you can have McGee come off the bench or trade him for some similar athletically gifted but boneheaded young player.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#126 » by verbal8 » Tue Mar 1, 2011 6:10 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:If Kevin develops that gives the zards a lot more options. I like that Kevin is 275. I like his footwork and his hook shot, I like his help defense. Give him some burn over the next twenty games, if he becomes starter material then you can have McGee come off the bench or trade him for some similar athletically gifted but boneheaded young player.


I think the Wizards can be patient with Seraphin more than some other positions. Although they are valued, it seems that defensive centers(Camby, Haywood, Chandler and Perkins) are available in the trade market more often than say 2-way power forwards.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#127 » by Severn Hoos » Tue Mar 1, 2011 7:27 pm

I have to agree with the general consensus. First, Baltche is a tease, as Kev points out, and the team would be better off without him. [Extended side note - I blame myself. I still remember watching the 2005 Draft, anxiously waiting to see if my guy would be available at #49 - and he was! Too bad, my guy was Ryan Gomes. And every time I finally become convinced that Ernie made the right choice (Baltche over Gomes) is precisely when Dray slips back into oblivion and I so wish we have the tough 6-7 tweener forward on a reasonable deal over the gifted 7-footer with low bball IQ and work ethic. But I digress...]

Earlier, I was hoping to move Baltche for a mid-first in this year's draft. in the meantime, we actually got a mid-first (stretching the definition of "mid" here), and Baltche has so lowered his trade value that it would seem almost impossible to move him for such a deal. We may be down to looking for a 2012 expiring in a straight up deal/dump.

The draft pick has to be Sullinger. The combinations could be fun to see - Sully & Ke-veen on the floor together? Now that's some beef. Sullinger would also seem to be a good fit with McGee, so if you keep JV, there's at least a decent tandem approach at C.

Now here's the irony: with that front court (plus Booker), what would you want to add to round it out? Hmm, let' see - I'd look for a veteran player, a guy with a good/decent jumper (unlike KS, JM, & TB), bring some length - as we'd be somewhat undersized - good passer/distributor, and decent defender.

In other words, almost the exact skillset of....Andray Baltche. Too bad he's such a knucklehead that he can't fill that role. I'd love to see a guy like Kurt Thomas, Brad Miller, McDyess, etc. but those guys are all way over 30 and should be coaching instead of playing. Still not sure who to add here, maybe a trade to bring in a vet.

Re-sign Young if the deal is reasonable. (Another funny rollercoaster - at the beginning of the season, I suggested a 4-year deal between $4-5M per year - i.e., starting around the QO of a little under $4M for 2011-12. That went from fooolishly high to way under market price, and may yet end up as the Goldilocks answer - just right.) If so, A tandem of Young, Crawford, and another vet could hold down the fort at SG.

With the Hawks pick, or moving up a bit to ensure we get him, I really want Chris Singleton. Imagine other teams having to play against Booker, Singleton, Seraphin, and Sullinger. Oh, and chasing John Wall around all game as well. In understand that there would be definite offensive limitations to that team, but other squads will HATE playing against those guys.

And a bonus thought - if we did add Singleton, we'd have two of the best physical matchups to LeBron in the league. Booker is very similar in size, build, and speed, while Singleton is actually a little bigger, relishes contact and defense, and would be an absolute pest if he was on LBJ. Oh, and we now have the kid who dunked in his grill. It's almost like LBJ is the white whale to EG's Ahab. But again, I digress...

Lewis stays put for another year, has surgery to get healthy, and is one of the vet leaders/mentors in the locker room. Then, hope for an amnesty provision or buy out the non-guaranteed portion of his deal for 2012, or some type of trade to get him off the books by summer 2012.

If they can move Dray's contract, by 2012 the young core would look like:

Wall/
Young/Crawford
Singleton
Sullinger/Booker
Seraphin/McGee

with a TON of cap space and whoever they take in the 2012 draft - probably another lottery pick (Honeycutt?). Now - what veteran/star would want to join that team? Good question. But if they could find a star 2-way SF (say, Danny Granger) either via FA or in a trade (say, with Indiana for example), then you'd have the makings of something special. Sprinkle in some vets at PF and PG, and they start to look like an actual team. For now, the ceiling would be 45-50 wins, but that would be blessed relief compared to what we've had to watch for the past 5 years. And if they managed to catch lightning in a bottle and add a genuine star (top 20 player) in addition, then the sky's the limit.

Too bad it'll never happen....
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#128 » by fugop » Tue Mar 1, 2011 7:45 pm

The question I can't answer atm is how much additional ball handling we need beside Wall in the starting lineup, or how much we need players capable of creating their own offense. To illustrate:

Wall
Morrow
Battier
Lewis
Noah

At one extreme, you've got Wall, three shooters, and a junk-offense C. Wall would need to initiate the offense every time down the court. This is not far from how Orlando's offense seems structured, though they obviously have a more potent option at C and a weaker initiator at PG. The Turkoglu crutch seems necessary to compensate for Jameer Nelson's shortcomings.

Wall
Curry
Granger
Bosh
Kaman

At the other extreme, you've got guys who create their own offense. Each is an individual threat, etc.

I'm not sure where Flip's offense fits along this spectrum, and I'm not sure how much we should tailor our personnel to Flip. But it's something to consider in future acquistions.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#129 » by Benjammin » Tue Mar 1, 2011 8:48 pm

I would load the team bus and find the nearest reputable vet.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#130 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 2, 2011 6:15 pm

Recent quote from Perkins about the Thunder organization:

'The organization is first class,' Perkins said. 'I'm impressed with everything ... how things are handled here. Great staff. Just unbelievable.'


It would be nice if the Wizards evoked that kind of response in newly acquired players.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#131 » by closg00 » Wed Mar 2, 2011 6:31 pm

Illuminaire wrote:Recent quote from Perkins about the Thunder organization:

'The organization is first class,' Perkins said. 'I'm impressed with everything ... how things are handled here. Great staff. Just unbelievable.'


It would be nice if the Wizards evoked that kind of response in newly acquired players.


:nod: Tell me about it. It has been pointed-out several times in this thread that the organizational structure of the Wizards MUST change from top to bottom. The Thunder organization is "1st Class", the Wizards organization is 3rd class at-best under Ernie Grunfeld and Ed Tapscotts management.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#132 » by Ruzious » Wed Mar 2, 2011 6:35 pm

I don't disagree, but keep in mind that OkC just gave Perkins an extension (even though he's injured) that FAR exceeds what Boston was rumored to have offered him. If I were him, I'd have a permanent grin on my face, too.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#133 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 2, 2011 6:40 pm

Haha, true that, Ruz.

I also agree Closq. I tend to place more organizational level blame on Pollin, myself, but I don't really know how the Wiz are structured internally. Some GMs have a lot of say in the details, some are only expected to deal with players and coaches (and sometimes not even that).

Regardless, we've been the family-owned convenience store equivalent of an NBA operation for a long time now. I respect the patience of Leonsis, but I also hope he's changing the culture and establishing much higher standards of performance across the board.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#134 » by BYRDMAN RULZ » Wed Mar 2, 2011 7:37 pm

If you look at the Wiz roster there are maybe 5 or 6 players you can definitely say are a part of the Wiz long-term future

*Rashard Lewis (we are stuck with him, but no way he is around when the Wiz are actually good, his contract is too massive to move)

*Andray Blatche (He will never help this team be a playoff contender - get rid of him while he still has value)

*John Wall (the main building block for this team - got to build the team around him like Bulls and Rose)

*Yi Jianlian (nothing more than a bench player let him walk after the season is over)

*Josh Howard (a veteran presence, but not sure I would keep him after season is over)

*Nick Young (I was on the fence about him but he and Wall may have a future together - Keep 'em)

*Moe Evans (solid veteran presence, may be a keeper if he can get off the bench)

*JaVale McGhee (He would be a great energy player off the bench, but somehow he will probalby want starters money, may be best to trade him. Wiz will never be a seriouis contender with him starting. I suspect he does have some trade value.

*Kevin Seraphin (The Wiz need to give him as many minutes as he can handle to see what he can become - keeper)

*Trevor Booker (I love his game, not a star but he works hard and really seems to care)

*Jordan Crawford (Not sure what he will be, but I remember him shooting the lights out in the NCAA tourney last year - TBD)

Cartier Martin (I can take 'em or leave 'em will never be a star with the Wiz.)

Hamady Ndiaye (see Kevin Seraphin - may be a keeper)

Mustafa Shakur (who cares)
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#135 » by nate33 » Wed Mar 2, 2011 7:43 pm

Untradeable:
Wall

I like them and I'm inclined to keep them for the future:
Young, Seraphin, Booker

No opinion yet:
Crawford

Looking to trade if I could get decent value:
McGee

Would trade for expiring contracts just to get him out of here:
Blatche
Lewis

I see no reason to try and retain any of our free agents. Or rather, I feel no compulsion to retain our free agents above any other free agents that are floating around out there.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#136 » by Nivek » Wed Mar 2, 2011 7:45 pm

I agree with your analysis, nate. Only quibble is on Young. I'd keep him if he comes cheap. He's not worth sacrificing a shot at a max salary player, though. A lot depends on that new CBA. If there's a Houston provision, the Wiz can dump Lewis and have plenty of money to re-sign Young and go shopping for talent. If they're stuck with the cap situation as things stand now, then Young's gotta be real cheap.

They need to find a new home for Baltche.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#137 » by verbal8 » Wed Mar 2, 2011 7:48 pm

Up to this point I am in complete agreement.

BYRDMAN RULZ wrote:Hamady Ndiaye (see Kevin Seraphin - may be a keeper)

Mustafa Shakur (who cares)


In my mind the prospects of these two are the reverse. I don't think Shakur has any chance of being a full time NBA starter, but the Wizards need a back-up they are comfortable with playing 10 to 15 minutes a night and serving as a starter in a pinch. So while I don't see him playing a huge role, the roster spot may be his to lose.

I don't expect any significant production out of Hamady this season. Depending on what the Wizards acquire in the off-season, he may not be worth a roster spot. However with so many holes to fill, he probably stays on the roster another year for development.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#138 » by Rafael122 » Wed Mar 2, 2011 7:49 pm

BYRDMAN RULZ wrote:If you look at the Wiz roster there are maybe 5 or 6 players you can definitely say are a part of the Wiz long-term future

*Rashard Lewis (we are stuck with him, but no way he is around when the Wiz are actually good, his contract is too massive to move)

*Andray Blatche (He will never help this team be a playoff contender - get rid of him while he still has value)

*John Wall (the main building block for this team - got to build the team around him like Bulls and Rose)

*Yi Jianlian (nothing more than a bench player let him walk after the season is over)

*Josh Howard (a veteran presence, but not sure I would keep him after season is over)

*Nick Young (I was on the fence about him but he and Wall may have a future together - Keep 'em)

*Moe Evans (solid veteran presence, may be a keeper if he can get off the bench)

*JaVale McGhee (He would be a great energy player off the bench, but somehow he will probalby want starters money, may be best to trade him. Wiz will never be a seriouis contender with him starting. I suspect he does have some trade value.

*Kevin Seraphin (The Wiz need to give him as many minutes as he can handle to see what he can become - keeper)

*Trevor Booker (I love his game, not a star but he works hard and really seems to care)

*Jordan Crawford (Not sure what he will be, but I remember him shooting the lights out in the NCAA tourney last year - TBD)

Cartier Martin (I can take 'em or leave 'em will never be a star with the Wiz.)

Hamady Ndiaye (see Kevin Seraphin - may be a keeper)

Mustafa Shakur (who cares)


Lewis is gone in a year.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#139 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Mar 2, 2011 7:53 pm

It might be easier to fix this team from the ground up through the draft.

Smart, mature, confident rookies who meet specific needs is what I would shoot for. I like Jenkins and Cole a ton because both are honor student types with 4 years at non-traditional basketball schools. Both are phenomenal athletes. Both are winners.

I haven't looked at a lot of players in terms of character beyond the basketball court, but that IMO is the key intangible the Wizards need to acquire.
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Re: How do you fix this team? 

Post#140 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Mar 2, 2011 7:54 pm

So in other words, keep Wall, N1, Booker, and Seraphin definitely. Those are our tier i guys.

Tier ii/bubble guys: McGee, Baltche, Crawford, Ndiaye, Evans

Don't let the door hit you on the way out: Lewis, Howard, Martin, Shakur, Jianlian
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