Iceness' Mock 8.0.

[Harry Palmer]

Peterson going to the Niners. Hearing this more and more, liking it as much as always.

Awesome.

I know Miller's higher, but I think I actually prefer PP for us. PP, Miller, and some other super drop are my best case scenarios. Of course, A.J. Green also being there would give me pause. Might give a guy like Harbaugh pause too.

But all told if we walk away from this with Peterson, I say well done.

The QB's are a headache. Newton seems to me the only serious talent, but that said I can't exactly put my finger on why I dislike Gabbert so much. On paper each has a huge adjustment, and each has huge natural tools. I just think that Newton's upside transcends Gabberts, but I admit I couldn't make a rational argument for why.

Neither make me feel all warm and fuzzy, and I take PP or Miller or (OMG) Bowers or whatever over either, but Newton at least I see why the Niners go there. Gabbert....ah...dunno. I guess I prefer him to Amakamura...imo, really overrated...but I'd be more 'hope he proves me wrong' about it.

[TSE]

I actually thought his last mock version was better. I see no way that Dareus goes number 1 and refuse to accept that Carolina would seriously consider that, also correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Dareus a DE the previous season? Having a higher floor just isn't enough, and I don't care if Mayock thinks Dareus is the best DT in the draft. I also can't see Jones going ahead of Green with the extra foot screw news not doing anything to help Jones although I think he made this mock possibly not knowing that information? The team that takes any QB before Newton is a fool, taking Gabbert over Newton somehow reminds me of taking Darko over Carmelo, one guy is a stupid baller and the other just has a stupid name. Not a huge fan of the Lions pick of Brandon Harris but nobody really fits there well anyhow, and I think Kerrigan should go much higher.

[Icness]

Remember, it's what I think the teams will do and not necessarily what I would do. I wouldn't take Dareus in the top 10, not enough impact plays. I wouldn't take Peterson in the top 10 either, but that doesn't change the fact they're both going to be taken then.

A couple of methods behind the madness:
--Carolina is extremely risk-averse in their draft process. They always take the higher-floor guys if the ceilings are close. Dareus has a much lower bust rate than either Bowers or Fairley because of where he played, how he plays, and what they're likely to ask him to do. That might change some now that John Fox is gone but I doubt it.

--Cincinnati is more likely to make the splashy pick of Jones or Newton than the "safer" picks of Green or Gabbert. That's just how they do business--no publicity or talk radio is bad as long as it's about the team. FWIW I know the inability to do anything with Carson Palmer has to be killing Mike Brown and he's an influential voice in the CBA negotiations. I've heard he doesn't really believe Palmer will walk away.

--A few teams are looking at Amukamara more as a safety than a corner, and that probably helps him because this draft is real thin on safeties. As a corner I honestly doubt he's be a top 15 pick, but if he's willing to move to safety he could go to DAL or HOU.

--I still think the Patriots are going to put a package together and go get Von Miller. Just a gut feeling, no basis other than that. Denver, you'd be wise to answer that phone...

I'm heading to a few pro days (Texas, TAMU, LSU, maybe Arkansas and TCU) in the next couple of weeks and hopefully will be able to zero in with more accuracy.

Also, if you're looking for a late WR sleeper, check out Joe Horn from Ashland. He'll be at Ohio State's pro day, but he's run several legit low 4.3 40s and done a 3.82 short shuttle in training. Not real big (6'0", about 195) but he can fly and has great agility. I only saw him play once, in 2009, and he made some plays, got open against a zone pretty well and he's Hester-esque on returns. Poor man's Jacoby Ford. If he puts up those times at OSU he'll go in the 6th/7th round.

[TSE]

Well I just wish there was a way that I could wager serious money on the results of the draft, cause whether it's a mock for what you think a team should do or what a team will do, I just want to bet a lot of money that Dareus will not be picked number one, cause I'm so sure that they wouldn't do that even though I know nothing about the people in Carolina and you might know more about them than me. I still want to bet against it! lol

Mike Brown in Cinci is terrible, I just can't stand that guy, he just strikes me as such a moron, and it pleases me to see this fallout with Carson Palmer because he deserves it, Cinci has had tremendous opportunity to become a great team and he has really torn things apart with that team. He's a real loser and I don't know Carson Palmer personally, but it sounds to me like he's dead serious about never playing for the team again. I think he either will force his way out or get a ludicrous contract from them, either way it looks like CIN is going to take a serious hit one way or another, good for them, they deserve it for their shameful negligence over the years.

The main thing that shocks me more though than you picking Dareus number 1 or anything else is that you wouldn't take Peterson in the top 10. That's quite a shocker to here, I'm all about Peterson as a prospect and drooling over him. I would LOVE for the Lions to get him. And that's not to say he's perfect cause I am not an LSU fan so I have hardly seen the guy play and a couple of times I was watching closely he made a couple bad plays and mistakes that scared me, but nevertheless he just has too much else on his side, he's the only premium CB prospect in this draft that even qualifies to my liking. I guess I looked at the technical things he did wrong and I say well if I was his coach, I could fix that. This guy has the physical tools, and his return average demonstrates his instincts and playmaking ability, and I don't see any reason why he can't be molded into a star NFL CB. I don't trust any random NFL coach to be able to do that, but I can't not pick a guy because I'm worried about the specific coach he might get paired up with, so I just assume that the coaching will be there, and thus Peterson is a slam dunk to me in theory. I am CERTAIN that if PP listens to me, that I would make him great, and so I expect the coaches to do the same.

I seen a couple of those late WRs put up good fast times and there's a couple of 6-5 guys that are interesting for size. Thanks for the tip on that guy cause I'm all about late round offensive sleepers, that's one of my favorite things to hunt for and being an Internet armchair scout I don't have the tools to filter out for sleeper defensive prospects as much as I do for the offensive players. For WR late, I kinda like Terrance Tolliver, tall and fast from LSU, Deandre Brown from SMiss is 6-6, and what about Andre Holmes out of Hillsdale? He has height, speed, and 11 TDs last year on 8.5 catches per game.

[DirtyDez]

Peterson won't make it past #5. He's the best player in the draft. I'm guessing Carolina takes Dareus and Denver takes Peterson. There's also not a QB i'd take in the top 15 this year.

INB4 people overrate the 1 year wonders Bowers and Fairley.

[TSE]

So what team do you root for? Who are you planning to take with the pick, and at what pick would you take Bowers or Fairley for your own team? Would you trade your team's 2nd-7th rounders, all of them, to get one of those 2 players, or what would you offer for them then in terms of remaining draft material? So you won't draft anybody that doesn't have what at least a 3 year studly track record? There's not a ton of players that exactly have that.

[DirtyDez]

So what team do you root for?

Dunno if you're talking to me but my team is the Cards.

Who are you planning to take with the pick

1. Peterson
2. Miller
3. Green

I think 1 of those 3 will be there at #5... Wouldn't touch any of these QB's in the top 5.

, and at what pick would you take Bowers or Fairley for your own team?

Wouldn't take either at #5 because Bowers is strickly a 43 End and we run a 34. Wouldn't take Fairley because or DL is the most complete unit on our team (Dockett, Dan Williams and Cambell.

Would you trade your team's 2nd-7th rounders, all of them, to get one of those 2 players, or what would you offer for them then in terms of remaining draft material?

So you won't draft anybody that doesn't have what at least a 3 year studly track record? There's not a ton of players that exactly have that.

At #5, in the Cards position, no... Miller and Peterson fit our positions of need. Miller has the most experience playing 34 OLB in college standing up (which is important for our ZBS. Peterson is the best player in this draft and makes the biggest impact on D right away. He can also return punts.

[TSE]

Ok fair enough, but you only aren't picking Bowers or Fairley because conveniently you love the DL. I was just trying to get at really how you value those guys if there wasn't a specific constraint due to position. So if you were representing various teams in the top 10 that didn't have a particular adversity to using up a pick on the DL, are you still saying you don't like those players at all as potential very top picks?

What do you think about the Lion's DL as a whole? Cause I think our DL is one of the strengths of the team yet I would drool over adding both Bowers and Fairley if I could get them.

[DirtyDez]

If i'm Cincy at 4 and Green/Peterson are gone i'd consider Bowers there. If i'm Cleveland and Green is gone you'd think he goes there. I like Fairley in Buffalo if Dareus/Peterson are gone.

Detroit's DL is fine. I'd go corner or OT. Bowers/Fairley won't drop out of the top 10. If they still wanna go DL i'd say Quinn or Kerrigan off the edge. I love Kerrigan's motor and production in college.

[TSE]

Ok well here's my point. You just said you are totally cool with Bowers at 4 and Fairley at 3, that's extremely high for any player, and it's not like anybody anywhere has been declaring any players as certain 1s or 2s in this draft. I mean there was virtually no dispute that CJ was the best prospect or Suh or Barry. You wouldn't toss names like that around as a possible 5 or what not and every player in this draft has had their name thrown out of the top 10 at various times. So you were basically saying those 2 guys are overrated yet you got them slotted at basically just a spot or two off the very top spot, which on average your grade there might actually be higher than the average grade or perception given out on the Internet. So if there is a market perception, to me it sounds like your own perception is ironically "overrating" those 2 guys! lol And maybe I'm exaggerating a tiny bit, but your comment just came across as strongly resolute that these guys are overrated, and even if somebody thought they were the top 2 players in all of college football, there just isn't much room to cite a griping claim about overrating players when you see them fit so comfy right there at the 3 and 4 spots.

And yeah DL is totally not the preference for the Lion's first round pick, but we are in a spot where we might not have a great prospect at a position I like and if I had to guess right now, I think I would guess that we will get stuck having to pick a DE, and so your quick jumping to Quinn and Kerrigan as a pair I do complement you on having a very keen perceptive outlook, cause those are exactly the 2 guys that I was kind of thinking about having to make a 50/50 choice on when we're on the clock. Quinn obviously everybody's talking about him a lot so we all know what his positives are, and Kerrigan well he's just bust-proof in my opinion, absolutely positively bust-proof, like Vernon Gholston you know? lol j/k The Lions already have one good DE from Purdue, and I think it's a sexy idea to get an even better one to play the other side. But yeah you're in tune bro and I like how you think on the analytics for that part!

[DirtyDez]

I think Fairley and Bowers are overrated but they're still top 10 talents. I'm not calling them garbage. A llot of people have Bowers or Fairley at #1 which i don't agree with. Both only have 1 year of major production. If i'm picking #1 i want a sure thing. And i said i'd only take them at BUF/CIN/CLE if other players are off the board.

And if it came down to i'd take Solder or Costanzo at #13. Backus is decent but he's 33. I'd want my 70 mliion dollar QB paired with a franchise LT over the next decade. If you have a good QB who protected your team always has a chance.

[TSE]

Yeah can't argue with that, if the Lions need anything specific for the future, a successful QB would surely be my pick!

[Killa K]

I would be ecstatic if this were to be the Ravens draft picks. The first 4 rounds nets 4 of the 5 needs for the team(missing a CB) and all the players can be impact players on the next level. Good mock

[Sandlot]

What are the chances that the current CBA negotiations also changes the way people draft? Would teams grab the best available player even if he doesn't fill a need, in order to use him as trade bait? I assume not but I guess it might be a possibility. I know there are lots of teams that are looking for quarterbacks. Would they consider picking a player just to try and trade him for a QB? Just a thought.

[TSE]

Well the answer has to be sure, anything is possible since we have no idea what the CBA details will be like. And it just depends from team to team. Say for example Cam Newton is available when the Lions pick. Well if I'm in charge of the team I like that cause I like him as a prospect more than Stafford so if I could swap Stafford for Newton and get a pick I would do that, but Mayhew is in love with Stafford so he would probably rather have Stafford. However, he may still draft Newton. He may believe that he has such potential value and lucked out to be able to draft him and everybody is counting on him to not really play in his first year anyhow, so if we don't have a logical position to draft, even though Mayhew may have no intentions of playing Cam, he may see him as a perfect player to draft to in a sense defer our draft pick value to the next year, with a chance for profit on the trade too, rather than take a guy who is weak BPA value at 13. So it all depends on how much guts the GM has to draft a guy, but in the NFL and the way the salary cap works regarding trades, it's quite unusual to find great opportunities to draft a guy with a heavy portion of the motivation being to just flip him later. But sometimes the stars have a way of aligning themselves for situations like that.

[Icness]

What are the chances that the current CBA negotiations also changes the way people draft? Would teams grab the best available player even if he doesn't fill a need, in order to use him as trade bait? I assume not but I guess it might be a possibility. I know there are lots of teams that are looking for quarterbacks. Would they consider picking a player just to try and trade him for a QB? Just a thought.

That's a good question. I bet the GMs wish they could answer it. I do think that teams will be more inclined to address need over BPA, particularly at QB and pass rushers.

As far as taking a guy to trade him, that phenomenon hasn't hit the NFL yet. Yet...

[94feet]

What's your review on Tandon Doss?
Kiper was all on his jock the other day as being a "sleeper"..

Any need for the Panthers to take Von Miller? They got Beason and Davis, but I think he might be safer than Dareus and Fairley.

[Dalbi]

Iceness, you have the 49ers taking Dontay Moch in the second round. That seems a bit high for me. He has a lot of potential obviously with that speed but a lot of other skills are lacking. Is he just a pass rushing specialist or can he play OLB full time and therefore justify a second round pick on him.

[The Duke]

Prince could be the Pick for Minny if he falls (as you suggested), and then re-shuffle some of their personel from CB to the secondary. (S is a need as well)

In round 2 for Vikings, Id like to see Stefen Wisniewksi since Center is a big need as well. (Sullivan/Cooper doesnt cut it)

[RiotPunch]

Hey Jeff, do you think Nevis can play 3-4 DE, or is he strictly a 4-3 DT from what you've gathered?