Official Raptors 2011 NBA Draft Thread, Part 3

[CunningLinguist]

Whoa, Perry Jones just dribbled the ball end-to-end effortlessly for a layup, aided by brutal Texas 'D though. Baylor trailing vs. Texas late in the game.

I'm not sure that play proved anything. There was absolutely nobody defending him once Baylor passed the ball over the Texas ball pressure. I'm sure some will use it as validation that he can play small forward.

[CunningLinguist]

You guys would rather draft a serious project over the likes of Terrence Jones, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones, John Henson & Jordan Hamilton?

All these guys are more athletic & not fouling out in 25 minutes against top flight competition.

I have John Henson rated lower than most of these guys, but he's a better C in just about every way compared to Valanciunas. Plus he can actually play 30 minutes a game.

Speaking for myself, no I would not take him over every one of those players. I was merely addressing the fact that you have to consider Valanciunas' age and strength versus his competition when assessing him.

Personally, I really like Terrence Jones for this team and Barnes has a lot of potential if he can improve his ballhandling.

[baulderdash77]

Henson plays C for the Tar Heels. They don't have any listed C's on their roster but that's his position. He's listed at 210 lbs at the beginning of the season and he had a 7'-4" or 7'5" wingspan (different sites list different stats) in 2008 when he was a recruit.

What I have going for the argument is that he's actually an athletic rebounding, shot blocking defensive player who doesn't foul out in 25 minutes. He has the same game & body type as Marcus Camby.

[CunningLinguist]

I think in general that great players dominate every level they're in. If you're not playing in the NBA and you're not dominating then you're not going to magically become a star in the NBA.

If this guy is getting pushed around and fouling out in Eurompe, he's going to get pushed around and foul out in the NBA but worse.

I know he's productive while he's in the game, but those easy buckes won't be there for him in the NBA and guys will actually compete for the rebounds in the NBA.

Watching the clips (which is all we can do) of him, I don't see a skill or athleticism that's going to translate well into the NBA.

Not all players develop at the same rate. Look at Vince Carter, who wasn't even the best player on his team in college and went on to be a better pro than college player.

Valanciunas is going up against older, stronger, more experienced players. When Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant came into the NBA directly from high school, they didn't set the league on fire. That didn't mean that they lacked the potential to eventually dominate.

i dont think he have potential to dominate like kevin garnet or other phenomenal athlete but to play good defence and grab 10-15boards in a game is realistic while scoring 10points.

Oh, I wasn't suggesting he had the potential of Garnett or Bryant, just that age, strength and experience are factors in a player's ability to dominate his level of competition.

[baulderdash77]

By the way, Henson isn't the guy I want drafted. I like T Jones & Barnes the best for our team.

I'm just making the point that I really don't want us to draft Valanciunas. I think he's the bust of the draft and that John Henson is the best PF/C prospect in this draft (I think Williams will play SF in the NBA).

[dagger]

Here's some stats on Henson's development by the way.

Since the NC State game when UNC turned it around (this is when we're talking about Harrison Barnes' major turning point) Henson has been averaging 12.7 & 12.2 with 3.5 blocks and only 1.8 fouls in 30 minutes.

That's some major productivity from a guy who's a true defensive C. He's super athletic and super long. I especially like his very low foul rate because he knows how to be productive and physical and stay in the game.

The defensive potential of a Davis/Henson/Amir frontcourt (assuming Bargs would have to be traded) really is fantastic.

I find it some of your comments puzzling.

Henson as a 6"10 200 pound 20 year old is somehow more suited to the NBA game as a C than Valanciunas, who is a 240 pound 18 year old at 6"11 with supposedly a 7"6 wingspan. Also factor in that Henson isn't even a C on his own college team. Also factor in Valanciunas is battling men in the best league outside the NBA. The only thing you have going for you is that Valanciunas fouls a lot. Seems pretty weak after that.

I also don't think you can get away from the free throw disparity. This is Henson's second year at NC and he's still a pitiful free throw shooter, which means when he grabs o-boards, teams won't hesitate to foul him. Think Andris Biedrins. Poor free throw shooting has become an albatross on his career. Valanciunas is such a good free throw shooter when he grabs o-boards, you're not going to foul him because it's almost certain two and maybe three points in the bag. And a guy who can hit his free throws that well can easily be backed out of the paint to take a baseline 12-footer and make it with regularity. I'm not saying Henson is a bad player - he's quite good – but a 200-pound scarecrow isn't going to gain 50 pounds and become a C. At best, Henson projects to be a slightly better version of Ed Davis, but not good enough to draft him when we have Ed and we have Amir. But an 18 year old who is 6'11", 240, is likely to top out at 7'0" or 7'1" can put on another 10-20 pounds with ease.

There is also a matter of pedigree. Lithuania may not produce a true swingman good enough for NBA stardom, but the country has a history of producing lots of good big men, some of whom have done well in the NBA. Valanciunas' model, the one he wants to emulate, the guy whose tapes he watches, is Sabonis. Frankly, his potential with the face-up game he has reminds me a bit of the young Zydrunas Ilgauskus (before all the foot issues when he was quite quick for his size and looked like a perennial all-star candidate in the making).

[CunningLinguist]

Here's some stats on Henson's development by the way.

Since the NC State game when UNC turned it around (this is when we're talking about Harrison Barnes' major turning point) Henson has been averaging 12.7 & 12.2 with 3.5 blocks and only 1.8 fouls in 30 minutes.

That's some major productivity from a guy who's a true defensive C. He's super athletic and super long. I especially like his very low foul rate because he knows how to be productive and physical and stay in the game.

The defensive potential of a Davis/Henson/Amir frontcourt (assuming Bargs would have to be traded) really is fantastic.

- who is going to score?
- which of those guys would be able to play C in the NBA?
- who plays SF?

[ATLTimekeeper]

Henson plays C for the Tar Heels. They don't have any listed C's on their roster but that's his position. He's listed at 210 lbs at the beginning of the season and he had a 7'-4" or 7'5" wingspan (different sites list different stats) in 2008 when he was a recruit.

What I have going for the argument is that he's actually an athletic rebounding, shot blocking defensive player who doesn't foul out in 25 minutes. He has the same game & body type as Marcus Camby.

Zeller plays C. He scores in the post, he mans the post on D. Henson swoops in for blocks from the top of the key. I don't want to knock him because I think he'd be a good late lotto pick, but he's not a better C prospect. No team is going to draft him as a potential C.

Jumping all over Valanciunas without having watched a single game isn't helping your argument, either.

[dagger]

Here's some stats on Henson's development by the way.

Since the NC State game when UNC turned it around (this is when we're talking about Harrison Barnes' major turning point) Henson has been averaging 12.7 & 12.2 with 3.5 blocks and only 1.8 fouls in 30 minutes.

That's some major productivity from a guy who's a true defensive C. He's super athletic and super long. I especially like his very low foul rate because he knows how to be productive and physical and stay in the game.

The defensive potential of a Davis/Henson/Amir frontcourt (assuming Bargs would have to be traded) really is fantastic.

- who is going to score?
- which of those guys would be able to play C in the NBA
- who plays SF?

I agree. Conceptually, that's weak. If we can't get Irving at #1, I'd focus on getting an SF who is a scorer. That's why I'm hoping Barnes shows a more well rounded game in the ACC and NCAA tournaments. Alternatively, Vesely is coming on strong and has the body and tools to be a big time scorer while reinforcing our rebounding and D in the paint. Running out a front line of three underweight power forwards is insane, not even Steve Nash in his prime could generate 75 points out of that lineup, and DeMar would leave for all the double and triple teams he'd face.

Right now, even with Jose and Bayless at point guard, we're one good SF option away from turning around some of the games we're losing. That's without any organic improvement from all of our young players. Just fill the black hole at SF with 15 ppg and decent defence, which Barnes and Vesely would be likely to provide after a year or seasoning, and we win a bagful of extra games even if none of our other players improve. That's how glaringly weak the SF position has been this year.

[5DOM]

John Henson at 19 (freshman year): 15.8mpg, 5.7ppg, 4.4rpg, 1.6blk, 48.6FG%, 43.8FT%
Jonas Valanciunas at 18: 14.9mpg, 7.6ppg, 5.4rpg, 0.6blk, 70.0FG%, 91.7FT%

And Valanciunas is playing against superior competition. If Valanciunas played in college against weaker, smaller players, his numbers (especially the blk number) would be extremely high IMO.

[CunningLinguist]

Here's some stats on Henson's development by the way.

Since the NC State game when UNC turned it around (this is when we're talking about Harrison Barnes' major turning point) Henson has been averaging 12.7 & 12.2 with 3.5 blocks and only 1.8 fouls in 30 minutes.

That's some major productivity from a guy who's a true defensive C. He's super athletic and super long. I especially like his very low foul rate because he knows how to be productive and physical and stay in the game.

The defensive potential of a Davis/Henson/Amir frontcourt (assuming Bargs would have to be traded) really is fantastic.

- who is going to score?
- which of those guys would be able to play C in the NBA
- who plays SF?

I agree. Conceptually, that's weak. If we can't get Irving at #1, I'd focus on getting an SF who is a scorer. That's why I'm hoping Barnes shows a more well rounded game in the ACC and NCAA tournaments. Alternatively, Vesely is coming on strong and has the body and tools to be a big time scorer while reinforcing our rebounding and D in the paint. Running out a front line of three underweight power forwards is insane, not even Steve Nash in his prime could generate 75 points out of that lineup, and DeMar would leave for all the double and triple teams he'd face.

Right now, even with Jose and Bayless at point guard, we're one good SF option away from turning around some of the games we're losing. That's without any organic improvement from all of our young players. Just fill the black hole at SF with 15 ppg and decent defence, which Barnes and Vesely would be likely to provide after a year or seasoning, and we win a bagful of extra games even if none of our other players improve. That's how glaringly weak the SF position has been this year.

I think Terrence Jones is a great SF option as well. He provides better shotblocking, rebounding, ballhandling and passing than Barnes. He's also more aggressive. I'd give Barnes the edge in terms of form on his shot.

I know everyone wants to turn Bargs into a PF or trade him, but I think he and Davis' games are actually very complementary. Davis provides the rebounding and shotblocking that Bargs doesn't, while operating from a different place on the floor on the offensive end. Bargs has an offensive skillset that Davis is unlikely to ever possess.

Adding someone like Terrence Jones on the other side would further minimize Bargs' deficiencies.

[baulderdash77]

You guys have a point on the FT%. One of the problems that Henson has had is that they haven't played him in crunch time because of his FT%. There was an article out this week about his FT shooting. It's something he's working on to the exclusion of everything else apparently. Since the NC state game he's shooting 58% from the line which is just terrible.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/03/04/ ... touch.html

Also he's gone from 185 to 215 pounds since coming to UNC by eating a 7,000 calorie per day diet. There's no doubt he's going to top out at 225-230 pounds.

[Silk Wilkes]

Tobias Harris looks pretty good today versus Terrence Jones. He's honestly outplaying TJ.

[bboyskinnylegs]

Knight and Jones looking flat out terrible today...let's see if they can pick it up in the 2nd half

[wanker]

Tobias Harris looks pretty good today versus Terrence Jones. He's honestly outplaying TJ.

Tobias Harris is one of the most underrated players. He was my target for the Miami pick (before it was traded). He will never be a superstar in the NBA, but he is a highly skilled player who could be a steal at the end of the first-round.

[bboyskinnylegs]

well, Kentucky turned that around rather quickly. They're on an 20-4 run now

[Silk Wilkes]

Whenever I watch Kentucky they suck. Now that I switched to the Heat/Bulls game they're playing good. I'll just stop watching them lol.

[Brinbe]

What I like is that even if Jones isn't scoring too well (and at least he's still getting to the line), he's effectively contributing in other categories, 8 board, 2 dimes, 2 blocks.

[Silk Wilkes]

What I like is that even if Jones isn't scoring too well (and at least he's still getting to the line), he's effectively contributing in other categories, 8 board, 2 dimes, 2 blocks.

+ 7 billion

His versatility really shows on his off games.

[dagger]

What I like is that even if Jones isn't scoring too well (and at least he's still getting to the line), he's effectively contributing in other categories, 8 board, 2 dimes, 2 blocks.

yes, but I think we need a scorer at small forward, someone to help screw up opposing defences rather than let them focus on just the guys. James Johnson gives you dimes, blocks and board. But he doesn't score enough yet. I want a guy who is a high percentage scorer, preferably with a good three-pt percentage.