Nets 2011 LOTTO WATCH and draft thread

[laytonjazzfan]

I would love to have barnes and hope somehow we can get him. Trade up if we have to.

[erudite23]

The NFL labor situation is at least as bad as the NBA. The NFL owners just locked the players out, to no one's surprise. A record number of underclassmen declared for this year's NFL draft.

Anyone who thinks that a looming lockout will have any serious effect on the draft pool is out of their minds. It didn't in the 98 NBA draft, and it likely won't in this one. There is a much greater risk inherent in a player going back and getting hurt or playing poorly than there is in getting drafted highly and maybe missing half a season's paycheck. A player could lose 25% of his paycheck to a lockout, worst case. They could lose as much as 90-95% if they play themselves from being a top 10 pick into a minimum salary second rounder (its happened before).

Guys will mostly come out. Maybe one or two will stay for various reasons. One or two might even cite the lockout as a reason for not declaring. But its not going to be much of an issue, truth be told.

[retiredcoach]

Anyone who thinks that a looming lockout will have any serious effect on the draft pool is out of their minds.

Okay, you've called me out. I'm out of my mind, and yes, I think the looming f*ing lockout will affect the draft.

The first ten picks won't be impacted much. Maybe one or two guys will forgo the draft. It depends on what happens by June.

From 11 to 30 are a wild card on who will declare, and the 2nd round is no man's land. A lot of teams get strong players out of the 2nd round, the Jazz included. Anyone who is a high probability pick for 1 to 10 is in pretty good shape. However, during a lockout rookie's can't sign their contracts even though they've got a deal on the table. If they sit on their asses and don't work out, then they're way behind whenever the season starts. If they do work hard and get injured, that can change the deal. So it's a gamble either way. But the money in 1 to 10 is significant enough most will go for it, especially with their entourage and hanger-ons pushing them.

Last first round and 2nd round picks won't look like good gambles in a lockout so that group is going to be weaker than normal.

So yeah, I think the draft will be affected by a lockout. Call me crazy now, but be sure to call me later so I can watch you eat crow!

[The59Sound]

My player comparisons after watching a lot of them (No rankings)



Kyrie Irving-Post prime CP3
Jonas Valanciunas-Joakim Noah (Better offense, slightly worse shot blocking)
Derrick Williams-Paul Millsap (Less interior scoring, much better shooting)
Jared Sullinger-Psycho T (Less active, more intelligent)
Perry Jones-Anthony Randolph (Much better interior scoring, worse shot blocking and rebounding)
Harrison Barnes-CJ Miles (100x more clutch, better shot selection and D)
Enes Kanter-7'0 Boozer (With super high bust potential)
John Henson-Anthony Randolph (Less talented on offense)

So, he's CJ Miles without all of CJ's primary attributes?

[Jazzfan12]

My player comparisons after watching a lot of them (No rankings)



Kyrie Irving-Post prime CP3
Jonas Valanciunas-Joakim Noah (Better offense, slightly worse shot blocking)
Derrick Williams-Paul Millsap (Less interior scoring, much better shooting)
Jared Sullinger-Psycho T (Less active, more intelligent)
Perry Jones-Anthony Randolph (Much better interior scoring, worse shot blocking and rebounding)
Harrison Barnes-CJ Miles (100x more clutch, better shot selection and D)
Enes Kanter-7'0 Boozer (With super high bust potential)
John Henson-Anthony Randolph (Less talented on offense)

So, he's CJ Miles without all of CJ's primary attributes?

Well, I just listed him as similar to CJ because their play style is exactly the same. Quick, one or two dribble moves to the basket, unconventional ways of finishing at the rim, shooting off of curls, good quickness but not very good explosiveness of strength, back cuts.

[kamazilla]

If the NFL can not reach a contract settlement and a lockout lasts more than a couple of months expect a long and brutal one with the NBA. If the NFL settles in the next month or two and the season starts on time, The NBA won't have support to sustain an ugly situation when the NBA is losing big money and the NFL isn't.

I've wondered about the psychology of this dynamic, particularly now that the NFL players union has decertified and is prepared to sue ownership on anti-trust grounds.

It occurs to me that this could be an opportunity for the NBA to differentiate itself as a league by settling labor/ownership issues in time to carry on with the season as scheduled. Better it would seem to be playing when the NFL isn't rather than alienating sports fans in general with a prolonged stoppage of play in both leagues.

Naturally, this may also be an opportunity for fans to allow their voices to be heard by tuning out when the culture of excess in professional sports dictates that too much is never enough.

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

After watching Harrison Barnes during the tournament Ive been really impressed (especially the 40 point game he had). Really athletic, NBA body, great skill level, very mature/level headed. I bet his stock rises really quickly.

I also gotta throw out Kemba Walker's name. The guy is a freaking stud. One of the most clutch college players I've ever seen play the game. The guy is just so confident and his ball handling/speed is killer. He reminds me of Aaron Brooks or Chris Paul. The guy just has a motor that won't stop. Winning the tournament by going 5 games in 5 days? With all of them being close games? Just incredible. I can see him ending up being a steal in the draft after the top 5.

Not going to lie....Jimmer has impressed me a lot. 52 point game? WOW. He also had a few moves against Kawhi Leonard that sure looked like NBA level plays. Can't say I'll be mad if we get him with our lotto pick.

I've also been really impressed with Nolan Smith. He is an awesome defender and is fairly skilled on the offensive end. I could see him being Corey Brewer or Raja Bell (not the old man version) type player.

[yonexpro1]

After watching Harrison Barnes during the tournament Ive been really impressed (especially the 40 point game he had). Really athletic, NBA body, great skill level, very mature/level headed. I bet his stock rises really quickly.

I also gotta throw out Kemba Walker's name. The guy is a freaking stud. One of the most clutch college players I've ever seen play the game. The guy is just so confident and his ball handling/speed is killer. He reminds me of Aaron Brooks or Chris Paul. The guy just has a motor that won't stop. Winning the tournament by going 5 games in 5 days? With all of them being close games? Just incredible. I can see him ending up being a steal in the draft after the top 5.

Not going to lie....Jimmer has impressed me a lot. 52 point game? WOW. He also had a few moves against Kawhi Leonard that sure looked like NBA level plays. Can't say I'll be mad if we get him with our lotto pick.

I've also been really impressed with Nolan Smith. He is an awesome defender and is fairly skilled on the offensive end. I could see him being Corey Brewer or Raja Bell (not the old man version) type player.

not a fan of kemba, to me he looks like jonnie flynn v 2.0.

I have watched only 4 games but every one of those games I was unimpressed with kemba, He shoots to much and doesnt look to contribute in other ways. Now like I said I have only watched 4 games so maybe I am wrong, but just look at that game where he hit the step back game winner. He took like 2 or 3 shots before that that were TERRIBLE. NOT a fan of players who take 5 or 6 or 7 shots in a row.

[erudite23]

Anyone who thinks that a looming lockout will have any serious effect on the draft pool is out of their minds.

Okay, you've called me out. I'm out of my mind, and yes, I think the looming f*ing lockout will affect the draft.

The first ten picks won't be impacted much. Maybe one or two guys will forgo the draft. It depends on what happens by June.

From 11 to 30 are a wild card on who will declare, and the 2nd round is no man's land. A lot of teams get strong players out of the 2nd round, the Jazz included. Anyone who is a high probability pick for 1 to 10 is in pretty good shape. However, during a lockout rookie's can't sign their contracts even though they've got a deal on the table. If they sit on their asses and don't work out, then they're way behind whenever the season starts. If they do work hard and get injured, that can change the deal. So it's a gamble either way. But the money in 1 to 10 is significant enough most will go for it, especially with their entourage and hanger-ons pushing them.

Last first round and 2nd round picks won't look like good gambles in a lockout so that group is going to be weaker than normal.

So yeah, I think the draft will be affected by a lockout. Call me crazy now, but be sure to call me later so I can watch you eat crow!

I wasn't calling you out specifically, just all the people who have heard some talking head pushing that line and are now regurgitating it as if its gospel.

There is a pile of evidence to suggest that the lockout will have no discernible effect on the potential draft pool. The draft is going to proceed as planned. After those draft slots are locked in, GUYS ARE GOING TO GET THEIR MONEY. Period. Unlike the NFL, rookie salaries are not an issue at the bargaining table. The rookie wage scale is likely to be identical under the next CBA to what it is today. So, even if they miss a season, a late 1st round prospect is still going to get a two year guaranteed multi-million dollar deal. If that same player goes back, he could easily slip out of the first round and into the second, and never even be offered a contract. All the same forces that lead players to declare every year will still be at work.

Even in the second round, you still have the same stuff. Guys whose families are in such a bad way that the mere chance of making it on a minimum rookie contract is enough to get them to leave. Every level of prospect has their own set of values, expectations and motivations, and at every level the lure of the NBA operates. With all the cautionary tales out there (Willie Warren and his fall from grace is the latest in a long line) about guys who stayed a year too long, very few prospects have the stomach to pass up what they deem to be an acceptable pay day in favor of one more year at the college level. Of course, a few of them do. So we will likely see one or two prospects at each level of the draft stay in school, as we do every year. But it won't be because of the lockout.

[Jazzfan12]

But they won't get their money until the lockout's over, so why not go back to school and play another year of basketball in college? They'll also lose a lot of money of the first year of their contract with a lockout. They won't be passing up nearly as much money and fame as usual with the lockout which makes it more likely for them to go back to school.

[The59Sound]

His point was that they COULD be passing up a lot of money, if they play themselves from a lottery pick to a second rounder during the extra year in college.

[red4hf]

If NJ wins tonight against Chicago, that's it........

[retiredcoach]

by erudite23 on Sun Mar 13, 2011 11:42 pm
There is a pile of evidence to suggest that the lockout will have no discernible effect on the potential draft pool. The draft is going to proceed as planned.

Dite--I hope you are right. Even without a lockout, this draft would be a weak one anyway. And if players don't declare then it only gets worse. There aren't any Griffin's or LeBron's in this draft as is. The Jazz need a couple of key players or good trade bait so the draft is important.

PS I haven't seen the pile of evidence. If you get a minute post some links.

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

I can't believe Jajuan Johnson is being projected to go in the second round...

[hoops4life]

by erudite23 on Sun Mar 13, 2011 11:42 pm
There is a pile of evidence to suggest that the lockout will have no discernible effect on the potential draft pool. The draft is going to proceed as planned.

Dite--I hope you are right. Even without a lockout, this draft would be a weak one anyway. And if players don't declare then it only gets worse. There aren't any Griffin's or LeBron's in this draft as is. The Jazz need a couple of key players or good trade bait so the draft is important.

PS I haven't seen the pile of evidence. If you get a minute post some links.

The NFL''s lockout had no effect on the amount of under class-men declaring for the draft. Players can easily declare for the draft, if the lockout does occur they can go to Europe for a portion of the season.

[qman]

not a fan of kemba, to me he looks like jonnie flynn v 2.0.

I have watched only 4 games but every one of those games I was unimpressed with kemba, He shoots to much and doesnt look to contribute in other ways. Now like I said I have only watched 4 games so maybe I am wrong, but just look at that game where he hit the step back game winner. He took like 2 or 3 shots before that that were TERRIBLE. NOT a fan of players who take 5 or 6 or 7 shots in a row.

I think Kemba is going to replicate Aaron Brooks offensive success. He is really, really quick and has a complete offensive game. Now do I want him with a lottery pick. Maybe.

[qman]

After watching Harrison Barnes during the tournament Ive been really impressed (especially the 40 point game he had). Really athletic, NBA body, great skill level, very mature/level headed. I bet his stock rises really quickly.

I also gotta throw out Kemba Walker's name. The guy is a freaking stud. One of the most clutch college players I've ever seen play the game. The guy is just so confident and his ball handling/speed is killer. He reminds me of Aaron Brooks or Chris Paul. The guy just has a motor that won't stop. Winning the tournament by going 5 games in 5 days? With all of them being close games? Just incredible. I can see him ending up being a steal in the draft after the top 5.

Not going to lie....Jimmer has impressed me a lot. 52 point game? WOW. He also had a few moves against Kawhi Leonard that sure looked like NBA level plays. Can't say I'll be mad if we get him with our lotto pick.

I've also been really impressed with Nolan Smith. He is an awesome defender and is fairly skilled on the offensive end. I could see him being Corey Brewer or Raja Bell (not the old man version) type player.

I like Nolan smith but it is important to note that he is 6'2" or 6'3". He will not be a shutdown defender at the next level.

[yonexpro1]

If the nets beat the C's tonight, I will cry.

[meat tray]

Simmons has a really good podcast with Chad Ford breaking down the NBA potential of the guys in the tourney...gotta admit, they are selling me on Jimmer. In fact if we got Barnes and Jimmer I would be ecstatic.

[JazzFan4Life18]

New Jersey is on the verge of getting their fifth win in a row, against the Celtics no less.

FML