Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[WizarDynasty]

Have to cosign dat 2u. YOu need at least a 9'2 standing reach to be an above average post defender. other attributes are low base power, and lateral agility. Standing reach most important, second is a strong power base and third is lateral agility and fourth is the ability to anticipate fifth is quick leap ability to rebounds.

Sullinger loses on the most important stat of standing reach, he has the second..i don't know about his agility but he doesn't seem that agile defensively, he seems to have good anticipation and quick leap ability.

But he most important trait that has the three times the weight of all the other categories is standing reach. His standing reach is 8;10 which mean his standing reach is lower than all starting p/f int he league which means every starting p/f has an advantage over him on the most important trait for defensive post players. His lack of standing reach is multiplied because he has a poor vertical to make for his lack of standing reach. He immediately becomes weak link that opponents peck at over and over whenever times get rough. sullingers lacks of standing reach and no ups is a a scab that won't heal for 13 years. Its the chink in your arms that gets exploited every game and you have to creating elaborate schemes to conceal it. It forces you to design a team just to protect the scab against even bottom dweller teams. Its the allen iverson at sg...its the earl boykins starting at point guard...It's the jamison at p/f. Each position has a threshold standing reach that has to be exceeded if you have any chance of being dominant defensively at that position. A center needs to have a bare minimum 9'2 standing reach to be dominant defensively. or make up for it with unbelievable leaping ability. A powerforward usually needs to have 9'2 or better as well to be a consistent defensive anchor against playoff teams, just nature of post players since p/f often have to guard centers.
A small forward needs to have 9'0 standing reach or awesome quick leaping ability if the there standing reach falls short an inch or two.
Shooting guards needs 8'8 or better to be locked down defenders. Point guards aren't as important they main criteria is lateral speed and wingspan instead of standing reach since they are guard by extending their arms outward instead of straight in the air. Point guards have to stop dribble movement of the other point guard as opposed to contesting a point guards shot..most point guards are distributors.
So there you have it. Standing reach is more important for post players, wingspan is more important for perimeter players and small forwards are considered front court players.

Now my question is, how far apart are P.JOnes and Durants offensive games. Both seem to have unguardable elevation on their perimeter jump shooting. Is it that Kevin Durant has better lateral agility at guarding small forwards than P.Jones does?

Harrison Barnes has 8'8 standing reach which is good for locking down shooting guards but not small forwards. Even though he is 6'8, he is more like hilton armstrong...long neck big head as opposed to have a superior standing reach for a small forward. I my book Barnes is 4 inches to short to be a dominant defensive small forward in the nba and doesn't have great foot speed. I see barnes as unathletic shooting guard definitely not a front court s/f player. Some see him as a paul pierce type

what's the big difference between barnes game and pierces game from college?

[Ruzious]

I think we're I'm at in the Barnes/Sully debate is this:

The max upside of Barnes is a high quality starter or maybe even a star on a championship team like Paul Pierce. The worst case scenario is a role player capable of starting on championship team like a Shane Battier. Either way, his game is going to fit on a good team.

The max upside of Sullinger is a high quality starter on a second-tier team like an Al Jefferson. He won't be a championship starter because he'll never be an above-average defender. The worst case scenario is that he's a Glen Davis type of backup.

I'd take Barnes.

That's a really skewed way of looking at things, imo. Worst case scenario is a lot lower than that for Barnes. It may not be likely, but worst case is worst case. Barnes' worst case is certainly lower than Shane Battier. As an example, Derek Fischer is a solid starter on a championship team. That doesn't mean you pick him - as a youngster - over a guy like Sullinger. You get fired on the spot if you do something like that.

And Sullinger isn't going to stop a team from winning a championship. He might not lead them to a championship and might not be one of the top 4 players on a championship team, but to just make the statement that he'll never be a championship starter assumes too much.

[Dat2U]

Ruz, you can't win anything of significance with defensive sieve starting at the 4 or 5. If you can name me one starter on a championship team that was below average to poor defender at either position, I'd love to know about him.

[nate33]

That's a really skewed way of looking at things, imo. Worst case scenario is a lot lower than that for Barnes. It may not be likely, but worst case is worst case. Barnes' worst case is certainly lower than Shane Battier. As an example, Derek Fischer is a solid starter on a championship team. That doesn't mean you pick him - as a youngster - over a guy like Sullinger. You get fired on the spot if you do something like that.

I don't think it's skewed at all. It's really very simple. You can't win with Sully as a major-minute starter. You can win with Barnes as a major-minute starter. Ergo, you take Barnes.

Now, obviously you disagree with my assertion that you can't win with Sully. That's fine, we'll have to agree to disagree there.

[fishercob]

Ruz, you can't win anything of significance with defensive sieve starting at the 4 or 5. If you can name me one starter on a championship team that was below average to poor defender at either position, I'd love to know about him.

I posted this a few pages back:

Chicago, 2nd in DRtg, starting Boozer at the 4. Both Boozer and Noah have been hurt and Taj Gibson and Kurt Thomas have played big minutes. Boozer has long been regarded as a bad defender.

Milwaukee, 3rd in DRtg, getting their "4" minutes from Drew Gooden, Ersan Ilyasova (48 total mpg combined) and LR Mbah a Moute.

Miami, 5th in Drtg, getting their frontcourt minutes from Bosh, Joel Anthony, Z and Juwan Howard. I don't see any elite defenders in that group. Solid, for sure, but elite?

New Orleans, 6th in DRtg, starting the "undersized" and unexplosive David West at the 4.

Philly, 9th in DRtg, getting the bulk of their frontcourt minutes from Brand, Thad Young, Hawes and a little from Speights and Mike Gminski.

Memphis, 10th in DRtg getting their "4" minutes from Zach Randolph and Darell Arthur

I get what you guys are saying and agree to a certain extent -- if Sullinger is indeed a "sieve," than he'll always be exploitable as WIzD pointed out. I'm just not convinced that he's a sieve yet. I'll also have to see how he measures out. Where I completely disagree is this notion that standing reach is the most important component of post defense -- look at the two trees have have down low. They suck!

As to the Songaila example, yeah Darius was slow as hell. If Sullinger's like that, then we stay away. He seems like a much better athlete to me.

[fishercob]

Sully looks plenty bouncy as a high school senior:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7Nlrpxo390[/youtube]

[SUPERBALLMAN]

What about Markieff Morris with the ATL pick? Seems like the Boozer type we need, maybe even a bit bigger and more athletic, and more potential offensively? And I think he's a junior from a good high profile program.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Just read the little write up about Kanter on main pg. A taller Horford is how he's described. He could be the guy to take. Allows us to bring McGee off the bench.

I just need some more concrete info and evaluation of Kanter to convince me. Barnes in the ACC tourney I witnessed with my own eyes. And I keep coming back to Terrance Jones as a high upside without much risk, has a bit of everything type player.

[Ruzious]

Ruz, you can't win anything of significance with defensive sieve starting at the 4 or 5. If you can name me one starter on a championship team that was below average to poor defender at either position, I'd love to know about him.

You keep saying certain players are defensive sieves - and I'm not ready to call them that. I have doubts about his defense, but I'm not ready to jump to the conclusions you are. I don't know - maybe you're a better judge of talent than I am.

[Ruzious]

That's a really skewed way of looking at things, imo. Worst case scenario is a lot lower than that for Barnes. It may not be likely, but worst case is worst case. Barnes' worst case is certainly lower than Shane Battier. As an example, Derek Fischer is a solid starter on a championship team. That doesn't mean you pick him - as a youngster - over a guy like Sullinger. You get fired on the spot if you do something like that.

I don't think it's skewed at all. It's really very simple. You can't win with Sully as a major-minute starter. You can win with Barnes as a major-minute starter. Ergo, you take Barnes.

Now, obviously you disagree with my assertion that you can't win with Sully. That's fine, we'll have to agree to disagree there.

Ok, I think your assertions assume way too much.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Kanter and Singleton could be a real nice draft for the Wizards.

[Ruzious]

Kanter and Singleton could be a real nice draft for the Wizards.

Now that I agree with - with or without assertions.

[nate33]

I like Kanter too. I just can't really evaluate him. All I'm saying is Barnes over Sully. I'm definitely not saying Barnes over Kanter. Actually, I'd like to have both. Let's draft Kanter and then trade McGee plus the ATL pick for Barnes.

[Ruzious]

For the record, San Antonio won the 2007 NBA championship with Fabricio Oberto as their starting PF.

- though Francisco Elson did get more starts during the regular season - 41-33. But Oberto played more minutes in the playoffs.

Legends - the both of them.

[fishercob]

For the record, San Antonio won the 2007 NBA championship with Fabricio Oberto as their starting PF.

- though Francisco Elson did get more starts during the regular season - 41-33. But Oberto played more minutes in the playoffs.

Legends - the both of them.

Right, which cuts to the heart of the "how do you fix this team" thread? Do you pick the guy who could be a starter on a title team next to an elite defensive big, or do you go elsewhere because we don't have that elite defensive big or an easy way to get him?

[pcbothwel]

I like Kanter too. I just can't really evaluate him. All I'm saying is Barnes over Sully. I'm definitely not saying Barnes over Kanter. Actually, I'd like to have both. Let's draft Kanter and then trade McGee plus the ATL pick for Barnes.

Agreed
Im not saying we need to Trade McGee for anything. But you've got to think that some team sees that Triple Double last night and the Dunk Contest and pulls the trigger on McGee.

[nate33]

Okay. I'll amend my last statement.

You can't win with Sully unless you pair him with a top 3 defensive center of all time.

[Zonkerbl]

How is he a sieve though? He won't be able to contest shots on the perimeter from bigs all that easily. So? If that's his only defensive problem that can be fixed. A sieve is someone like McGee, who gets muscled out of the way because he has no lower body strength. Does Sully have that problem? No. Is he a tweener like Jamison, too small to defend PFs, too slow to defend SFs? No.

The most dangerous offensive weapon a PF has is the post up game, because you shoot a high percentage, and have a good chance of drawing fouls, getting a high number of points per possession and getting the opposing PF in foul trouble. You want to waste your PF having him take shots on the perimeter like Yi, fine. That takes offensive space away from your perimeter players and is a losing strategy overall.

To defend a good post player you have to be strong enough not to be pushed under the basket and tall enough so you can't be shot over (like Seraphin). If you can establish and hold your position in the post, so you don't have to create this huge dent in your defense constantly having to send weak side help, then you're more than halfway there. That's what I want to know about Sullinger. Hope I get a nice long look at him during the tournament, I have OSU picked to win it. Haven't been following college so I filled out my draft mainly based on which players I want to look at, I'm sure that'll be at least as successful as all my other brackets have been.

[nate33]

In today's NBA game, guards can't stop other guards due to the hand check rules. The only way to defend is to have a sound defensive team concept centered on long, agile big men.

The most important thing you need out of both your big men is the ability to play help defense. You've got to be able to step out on the pick and roll, and rotate to help your fellow big man when he has to step out on the pick and roll. You also need to stop guard penetration at the rim. Everything else: post scoring, offensive rebounding, post defense, etc. is secondary. If you can't stop the pick and roll, it's academic.

Sully won't be a good pick-and-roll defender and he won't be a good help defender when the center has to guard the pick and roll. Those negatives are so huge that no amount of positive ability in the other aspects of the game will make up for it. And besides, I even question some of his positives. Specifically, I don't think he'll be that great of a post player (though surely he'll be reasonably capable). The only facet in which I'm certain that Sully will excel is defensive rebounding. I also expect he'll be a good locker room influence, a willing learner, and will play with effort and intensity every night.

[Ruzious]

Okay. I'll amend my last statement.

You can't win with Sully unless you pair him with a top 3 defensive center of all time.

First of all, I was simply answering Dat's question - and very nicely, I thought. I can change the nice part, if you want to continue to push me. I've noticed that most championship teams have somebody kinda good on them.

Secondly, where do you come up with "top 3 defensive center of all time"?