Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[dobrojim]

^ they need guys who can make buckets

I think CCJ's point would be that scoring is easier when you
play D and get stops and/or TOs, or at least are not taking
the ball out of bounds. Guys like Faried and SIngleton would
undoubtably help in this regard even if they are limited offensively.

[Ruzious]

I can see the Faried/Booker comparison, but I think you guys are underrating Booker a bit. Booker is quicker on the perimeter than Faried. Don't forget, Booker's measureables ranked him as a superior athlete to John Wall. Booker is a physical freak.

I go the other way. I think he's generally overrated on this board. While he's not quite the proverbial bull in a china shop a la Etan Thomas, there's no finesse to his athleticism. For example, there would have been no possibility that he could have stopped on a dime like Faried did before blocking that shot. You've mentioned that he's a physical freak a couple of times, and he's really not, imo. I mentioned the football analogy between the 2 Giants RB's - Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs is much stronger and actually had a better 40 yard dash time - despite being about 50 lbs heavier. But quickness, the ability to change directions, wiggle, instant acceleration - are things that make Bradshaw effectively just as good of an athlete as Jacobs.

[Dat2U]

I just don't see how we can draft Faried with Booker on board. I agree that he's a better prospect than Booker is, but I don't see how we can afford to use a draft pick on a duplicate talent. This team has so many holes, and I project Faried as a backup 4 on a great team, like Booker.

Anyway, I'm thinking Kanter with our lotto pick, Honeycutt with the ATL pick, Nolan Smith with our 2nd rounder. And round that out with McGee for Batum.

That would give you:

Wall/Smith/FA Vet
Young/Crawford
Batum/Honeycutt
Lewis/Booker
Blatche/Kanter/Seraphin

I don't understand. You have Lewis & Booker as our PFs going into next season and your against adding another PF in the draft?

I don't like the idea of making roster decisions based on our current backups. Booker while a nice player isn't a game changer. Outside of Wall, I wouldn't consider any other Wizard when making roster decisions.

I stand by my statement that right now, we are John Wall and the 14 questionmarks. Outside of a starting PG, we need to draft the best player available period.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

remember Booker was the fastest player at the combine last year.

Faried may be really fast, and still not as fast as Booker. IDK.

This.

Look at it this way: both are great athletes. Why not have two on your team? Also, they are different players.

Faried is a far superior rebounder. Booker is far more adept at finishing, even in halfcourt. Keep Booker because he is already a solid NBA sub at worst. Flip has mentioned that Booker can possibly play some SF. Booker can get a lot better offensively, but he's going to be best as a good sub.

Faried is baller and a starter, like Millsap and Blair.

[tontoz]

^ they need guys who can make buckets

I think CCJ's point would be that scoring is easier when you
play D and get stops and/or TOs, or at least are not taking
the ball out of bounds. Guys like Faried and SIngleton would
undoubtably help in this regard even if they are limited offensively.

True but it should also be pointed out that some of the guys who scored this season (Gil, Hinrich, Thornton, Yi) aren't on the team or won't be next season. Plus Lewis is just a rental and Nick is a free agent.

The only other scorers under contract for next year are Wall, Jordan and Blatche all of who have been very inefficient. Booker/McGee are relatively efficient but will likely always be a low volume scorers ala Chandler.

This team is seriously desperate for scoring.

[pancakes3]

^ they need guys who can make buckets

I think CCJ's point would be that scoring is easier when you
play D and get stops and/or TOs, or at least are not taking
the ball out of bounds. Guys like Faried and SIngleton would
undoubtably help in this regard even if they are limited offensively.

i disagree. defensive stops are good, but i don't think it translates to "good offense". sure there may be a bucket or two gained in terms of transition but in the halfcourt, it'll be just as tough, if not tougher. opponents are leaving yi jianlin and blatche open as it is, and those guys CAN shoot. if you stick booker out there at PF and the lane would be even more clogged. how do you think glen big baby davis is able to put up a dozen/game?

[dobrojim]

^ I don't disagree completely -but I do think you may be undervaluing
the effect of good D on producing points or maybe I should say making
your O easier. Any stop we get is an opportunity for Wall to go into
rocket mode, 1 man fast break.

[Nivek]

I agree with Dat. Wizards need talent at every position. Take the best player available. Don't pass on Faried because Booker is on the roster, if Faried is the BPA when they're picking.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

In addition to good D how about the value of increased possessions? More possessions means more second chance points, more garbage point put backs, more defensive rebounds that can be fed to a streaking John Wall who will generate transition scoring opportunities.

[tontoz]

^ I don't disagree completely -but I do think you may be undervaluing
the effect of good D on producing points or maybe I should say making
your O easier. Any stop we get is an opportunity for Wall to go into
rocket mode, 1 man fast break.

Even the best fast break team in the league generally averages only about 20 fast break points per game. The current leader is at 18.9.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/fa ... s-per-game

[dobrojim]

Offense-defense?

One thing I've heard said is that we don't have a team personality.

Champ teams need to be pretty good at both O&D.
I agree with Dat that we have Wall and 14?s.
So should we build towards becoming a good-great
defensive team in hopes of adding a singular offensive
talent later? Or try to be a good-great offensive team
that later learns to play (or adds players) who can D?

Is it an invitation to accomplish neither if you try to
do both simultaneously?

my personal bias is that the team has a chance to
be better sooner AND that the fans would appreciate
a lunch bucket tough D team. A great offensive player
is probably easier to add when you are ready.

[dobrojim]

^ I don't disagree completely -but I do think you may be undervaluing
the effect of good D on producing points or maybe I should say making
your O easier. Any stop we get is an opportunity for Wall to go into
rocket mode, 1 man fast break.

Even the best fast break team in the league generally averages only about 20 fast break points per game. The current leader is at 18.9.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/fa ... s-per-game

I'm not sure that is the right data to focus on.

what is the Offensive efficiency differential when a fast break
team cannot force the pace? In other words, what price do you
pay when taken out of what you prefer to do? That probably
varies a fair amount. And good teams are almost certainly
more adaptable, they can beat you either way.

[DaRealHibachi]

Going off the last 2 pages... Scoring & Rebounding...

Barnes/Williams & Faried it is...???

And I agree with the fact that the Wizards don't have the luxury to pick need over talent...

[tontoz]

I'm not sure that is the right data to focus on.

what is the Offensive efficiency differential when a fast break
team cannot force the pace? In other words, what price do you
pay when taken out of what you prefer to do? That probably
varies a fair amount. And good teams are almost certainly
more adaptable, they can beat you either way.

i don't understand what you mean. if wall wants to push the ball he will. It isn't like any team has stopped him from his 1 man break routine.

The vast majority of scoring is done in the half court for every team, even the best fast break teams.

[dobrojim]

my feeling is that even though as you point out most scoring is not via the fast break,
if you are good defensively you can make up for it as CCJ mentions, by things like
extra scoring opps in their various forms. The flip side of that is that if you are truly
horrible offensively, it's a lot harder to be good defensively because you are the one
getting break'd on.

[tontoz]

Since people are so interested in Faried with the Hawks pick i would like to know what makes people think the Knicks would pass on him. they already have two big time scorers and need defense and rebounding.

[Nivek]

In addition to good D how about the value of increased possessions? More possessions means more second chance points, more garbage point put backs, more defensive rebounds that can be fed to a streaking John Wall who will generate transition scoring opportunities.

No such thing as increasing the number of possessions -- at least not in advanced stats parlance. A possession begins when a team gets the ball and ends when the other team gets it back or the period ends. An offensive rebound extends an existing possession, it doesn't create a new one.

[theboomking]

I can see the Faried/Booker comparison, but I think you guys are underrating Booker a bit. Booker is quicker on the perimeter than Faried. Don't forget, Booker's measureables ranked him as a superior athlete to John Wall. Booker is a physical freak.

Booker's measureables were not superior to Wall's when considered as a whole.

Wall:
H w/o shoes 6.275" H w shoes 6'4" WS 6'9.25" SR 8'5.5" no step 30" max vert 39" maxvertreach 11'8.5" agility 10.84 sprint 3.14

Booker:
H w/o shoes 6'6.35" H w shoes 6.75" WS 6'9.75" SR 8'10" no step 31" max vert 36" maxvertreach 11'10" agility 11.15 sprint 3.10

Booker had a faster sprint, lower lane agility, lower vert, and is shorter in height and length for his position.

Furthermore, the combine just isn't a good way to measure athleticism in FB or BB. Is Booker a better athlete than Blake Griffin? His sprint and vertical leap would seam to suggest so. Wall didn't post a historically good sprint time or agility time, very good times, but not incredible. Have you seen anyone on the court look faster this year? Wall would appear to be a fantastic leaper based on the combine, but has missed at least 2 fairly easy dunks, and doesn't exactly look like Dwayne Wade playing above the rim. You have to look at the play on the court, where we see that players like Wade, DeRozan and Iguadala are high flyers, and Wall is incredibly fast. The combine only gives you a bit of information. My eyes tell me that Faried is just as good an athlete as Booker, if not better.

Out of all of the combine data, I like the height, wingspan, standing reach, and the lane agility drill to some degree.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Offense-defense?

One thing I've heard said is that we don't have a team personality.

Champ teams need to be pretty good at both O&D.
I agree with Dat that we have Wall and 14?s.

So should we build towards becoming a good-great
defensive team in hopes of adding a singular offensive
talent later? Or try to be a good-great offensive team
that later learns to play (or adds players) who can D?

Is it an invitation to accomplish neither if you try to
do both simultaneously?

my personal bias is that the team has a chance to
be better sooner AND that the fans would appreciate
a lunch bucket tough D team. A great offensive player
is probably easier to add when you are ready.

I agree the team WILL be better sooner (especially with the right new coach).

I disagree on this team is Wall and 14?s. McGee is a very good prospect. Booker and Crawford are solid subs who can contribute positively at both ends. Resigned at the right price, Young is better than average at SG. In Wall, McGee, and Young Washington has three starters who are already better than average starters. This team needs a coach who plays Wall and Blatche the same way Saunders plays McGee. He sits him down often on egregious mistakes. There is some talent on this squad. I also Seraphin's size/athleticism at PF in time.

Moving forward, if Washington drafts Derrick Williams or Sullinger for efficient offense all will improve in a hurry. If they also get Faried or Tristan Thompson or Markieff Morris for defense I will be ecstatic.

[TGW]

^^^I agree CCJ -- the Wiz can move forward with all the players you mentioned minus Blatche. I think Wall/Young/McGee can be solid starters on a good team.

We really need to get our situation straight with our forwards. Lewis and Blatche stink. We have 1 lotto pick, 1 mid-round pick, a 2nd rounder, capspace, and some tradeable assets we can use at our disposal to address those needs. Ernie cannot goof this offseason up.