ImageImageImageImageImage

Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

Moderators: LyricalRico, nate33, montestewart

User avatar
Chocolate City Jordanaire
RealGM
Posts: 54,953
And1: 10,524
Joined: Aug 05, 2001
       

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1221 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:43 pm

Nivek wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:In addition to good D how about the value of increased possessions? More possessions means more second chance points, more garbage point put backs, more defensive rebounds that can be fed to a streaking John Wall who will generate transition scoring opportunities.


No such thing as increasing the number of possessions -- at least not in advanced stats parlance. A possession begins when a team gets the ball and ends when the other team gets it back or the period ends. An offensive rebound extends an existing possession, it doesn't create a new one.

Okay, good correction, Nivek..

Faried will get a team more rebounds. Extended offensive possessions means more FGAs, more second chance points, more garbage points off put backs, more opponent fouls on shooters. Alternatively, more defensive rebounds means shorter opponent possessions and ultimately less points for them.
The Wizards shoukd have drafted Derik Queen

I told you so :banghead:
Mizerooskie
Junior
Posts: 369
And1: 46
Joined: May 19, 2010

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1222 » by Mizerooskie » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:46 pm

theboomking wrote:You don't think NBA GM's have good tape on these guys? Not only do they have an extensive volume of euro tape, but they have seen Kanter crush Sullinger and Terrence Jones, breaking Dirk's Nike Hoops Summit scoring record in only 23 minutes of play. He's been practicing at Kentucky all year and apparently dominated Nazr Mohammed in a head to head practice, after dominating everyone else at Kentucky. Kanter is bigger than any quality NBA prospect coming out this year, plays a physical brand of basketball with a lot of skill, and there is adequate tape on him to evaluate. Teams will get a better feel through workouts and the combine, but I feel very comfortable taking Kanter over Sullinger right now.

They have extensive volume of Euro tape of what? His nine games as a reserve at Fenerbahce?

He's dominated a single exhibition game, and is a practice all-star. Darko Milicic was a practice all-star.

Sorry, I don't see it. And I hope EG is smart enough not to spend a top-5 pick on someone who hasn't played competitive basketball at a high level.

And if EG takes Kanter over Sullinger, I might picket outside VC for the entirety of his reign.
barelyawake
Head Coach
Posts: 6,099
And1: 685
Joined: Aug 07, 2004

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1223 » by barelyawake » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:52 pm

I'll say for the umpteenth time two things:
1) We need to take into account mindset when drafting/trading for players. There is no "upside" for a player without a tough mentality.

2) Half court offense and defense win championships. I could care less how we are currently constructed or how Wall succeeds more in the open court. We need to draft based on what we wish to become -- not what we are. What we are is a very bad team.

And again, without a star big, who plays both ways, we are going to peak at an above-average team -- until Wall leaves and we start all over again (as we have countless times). So, the entire future needs to be geared toward drafting or attracting a star big. And by that, I don't mean a project who could possibly be good in four years, if he simply "puts on more muscle over time;" or "decides to grow-up eventually;" or "with a good big man coach, could completely alter his mindset and play defense." If that star isn't available in the draft (and I doubt he is), draft with the idea that day one begins when we attract or trade for said big. In otherwords, draft based on who will have the best trade value (when said big goes on the market). Which in turn means, draft players with the greatest work ethic to turn potential into reality the quickest.
dobrojim
RealGM
Posts: 17,012
And1: 4,154
Joined: Sep 16, 2004

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1224 » by dobrojim » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:06 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
dobrojim wrote:Offense-defense?

One thing I've heard said is that we don't have a team personality.

Champ teams need to be pretty good at both O&D.
I agree with Dat that we have Wall and 14?s.

So should we build towards becoming a good-great
defensive team in hopes of adding a singular offensive
talent later? Or try to be a good-great offensive team
that later learns to play (or adds players) who can D?

Is it an invitation to accomplish neither if you try to
do both simultaneously?

my personal bias is that the team has a chance to
be better sooner AND that the fans would appreciate
a lunch bucket tough D team. A great offensive player
is probably easier to add when you are ready.


I agree the team WILL be better sooner (especially with the right new coach).

I disagree on this team is Wall and 14?s. McGee is a very good prospect. Booker and Crawford are solid subs who can contribute positively at both ends. Resigned at the right price, Young is better than average at SG. In Wall, McGee, and Young Washington has three starters who are already better than average starters. This team needs a coach who plays Wall and Blatche the same way Saunders plays McGee. He sits him down often on egregious mistakes. There is some talent on this squad. Inlike Seraphin size/athleticism at PF in time.

Moving forward, if Washington drafts Derrick Williams or Sullinger for efficient offense all will improve in a hurry. If they also get Faried or Tristan Thompson or Markieff Morris for defense I will be ecstatic.


I wish I could be as optimistic about McGee as you are. If I were
to hear him say the right things about wanting to get better or
if I was to see diminishing repetitions of the same mistakes, I
would feel a whole lot better. My take is that he believes he's
doing well enough. I could well be wrong. I hope I am. He is
nowhere near the player he could be. Without a recognition
of that fact on his part, it'll never happen.

I'm more positive about Young than some here are. The question
I would have about him is similar to McGee. Once signed to his next
deal, will he work at getting better? I'm all in favor of keeping him
for a reasonable price.

Nate view on Sully makes me less enthusiastic than I otherwise
would probably be. Is he going to be efficient in the NBA?
I've barely seen Williams play and what I did
see wasn't special except for one eyepopping x-over. I like the sounds
of Kanter but like most, not given him the eye test.

I think Flip isn't too far of base in how he treats Wall vs McGee.
McGee is in his 3rd season and shouldn't need reminding of
what he supposed to do all the time.

Blatche needs a stern talking to and/or the serious threat of
losing min to Booker or a draftee. And to get healthier.
But mostly an attitude adjustment or just an understanding
of what his body language looks like to everyone watching.

I think we need a little more time to conclude much about Seraphin.

I don't think any of the prospects are that special outside of Wall.
Other teams have equally intriguing prospects.

We need mentally tough ballers who know how to play
winning basketball above and beyond physical capabilities.
And/or some specialists that can come in on day 1 and
shoot or rebound in an NBA context.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
User avatar
Nivek
Head Coach
Posts: 7,406
And1: 959
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Contact:
         

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1225 » by Nivek » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:21 pm

One of the points several made at the Sloan Analytics conference is that the most important "mental makeup" thing to consider when choosing players is "love of the game." If a guy isn't PASSIONATE about playing basketball well, you don't pick him and hope he develops the right mindset. He won't. And, he won't reach his potential, and the team will disappoint.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
User avatar
Chocolate City Jordanaire
RealGM
Posts: 54,953
And1: 10,524
Joined: Aug 05, 2001
       

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1226 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:43 pm

All passionate: Faried, Fredette, Kimba Walker, Tristan Thompson, Kawhi Leonard, Norris Cole, Charles Jenkins, Nolan Smith, the older Plumlee, Will Barton, Chandler Parsons, Rick Jackson, JaJuan Johnson, Jordan Taylor, Marshon Brooks, Brad Wannamaker, Jon Leuer among others.
The Wizards shoukd have drafted Derik Queen

I told you so :banghead:
User avatar
tontoz
RealGM
Posts: 20,770
And1: 5,306
Joined: Apr 11, 2005

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1227 » by tontoz » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:50 pm

Nivek wrote:One of the points several made at the Sloan Analytics conference is that the most important "mental makeup" thing to consider when choosing players is "love of the game." If a guy isn't PASSIONATE about playing basketball well, you don't pick him and hope he develops the right mindset. He won't. And, he won't reach his potential, and the team will disappoint.



Case in point, Baron Davis. What a waste of talent.
"bulky agile perimeter bone crunch pick setting draymond green" WizD
User avatar
Nivek
Head Coach
Posts: 7,406
And1: 959
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Contact:
         

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1228 » by Nivek » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:01 pm

tontoz wrote:
Nivek wrote:One of the points several made at the Sloan Analytics conference is that the most important "mental makeup" thing to consider when choosing players is "love of the game." If a guy isn't PASSIONATE about playing basketball well, you don't pick him and hope he develops the right mindset. He won't. And, he won't reach his potential, and the team will disappoint.



Case in point, Baron Davis. What a waste of talent.


Yep, he's one. Guys like Benoit Benjamin and Joe Barry Carroll come to mind quickly too. John "Hot Plate" Williams. Rod Strickland.

Ahem, Blatche and McGee so far appear to fall into that "not passionate about the game" category.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
Ruzious
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 47,909
And1: 11,582
Joined: Jul 17, 2001
       

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1229 » by Ruzious » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:10 pm

Does passionate about dunking count?
"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." - Douglas Adams
User avatar
tontoz
RealGM
Posts: 20,770
And1: 5,306
Joined: Apr 11, 2005

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1230 » by tontoz » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:13 pm

Nivek wrote:Yep, he's one. Guys like Benoit Benjamin and Joe Barry Carroll come to mind quickly too. John "Hot Plate" Williams. Rod Strickland.

Ahem, Blatche and McGee so far appear to fall into that "not passionate about the game" category.


I didn't plan on going there but since you did....... +1.

They weren't bad picks when you consider where they were picked but I am not holding my breath waiting for them to play to their potential.
"bulky agile perimeter bone crunch pick setting draymond green" WizD
P'Oed
Rookie
Posts: 1,011
And1: 85
Joined: Jun 12, 2007

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1231 » by P'Oed » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:17 pm

Yea, so....I'd say Derrick Williams has the official "ok" from me to play for the Wiz next year
User avatar
Nivek
Head Coach
Posts: 7,406
And1: 959
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Contact:
         

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1232 » by Nivek » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:23 pm

tontoz wrote:
They [Blatche & McGee] weren't bad picks when you consider where they were picked but I am not holding my breath waiting for them to play to their potential.


I agree completely. If a team ends up with a useful backup center at 18, that's a good pick. If they get ANYTHING from a 49th pick, it's good. In fact, it's arguable that based on where they were drafted, Blatche and McGee have both already exceeded expectations. Even so, neither guy has really truly tapped their potential yet. They could be soooooooooo much better than they are right now.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
Mizerooskie
Junior
Posts: 369
And1: 46
Joined: May 19, 2010

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1233 » by Mizerooskie » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:39 pm

FWIW, my top 5 for each pick (sans Euros, as I haven't seen enough to judge):

WSH 1st-

1. Sullinger/Barnes (these two are very close) - Sullinger would give the Wiz a lost-post offensive game that they've lacked forever, solid rebounding, a winning mentality, and an intelligent player. I have visions of he and Wall killing teams with the pick-and-roll. He may lack the upside to dominate, but I have little doubt he could turn into a 20-10, efficient player. Hopefully he measures well enough to have decent size for a 4.
2. Barnes/Sullinger - Barnes is already one of the best shooters in college basketball off the dribble, and has the skills to bring his spot-up shooting up to at least that level. He's got the talent to expand his offensive game and add more of an attacking. He's answered his biggest question mark, IMO, which was his supposed lack of killer instinct. He's been the man for UNC down the stretch, wanting the ball in clutch situations. Size is fine for the 3.
3. Derrick Williams - Efficiency, efficiency, efficiency. Can score from anywhere, has very high basketball IQ, rebound well, and gets to the line like crazy. I like him at the 3, assuming his smarts can compensate for a lack of quickness guarding the perimeter (or he tests better than expected in agility). Then again, a relative lack of defensive quickness hasn't hurt Paul Pierce, Carmelo Anthony, or Kevin Durant in their overall games too much.
4. Perry Jones - Hasn't put up great numbers this season, but I think that's more due to how terribly he's used at Baylor and the inability of his guards to get him the ball. To me, he's a 3 all the way. Love his handles, and he oozes upside. Will take longer to adjust than the others, mostly due to Scott Drew's idiocy. He makes Flip look like a Nobel laureate.
5. John Henson - Elite shot-blocker and rebounder. Watched him in a half dozen or so full games this year, and he surprised me with his offensive touch. I was expecting Ben Wallace on that end. He won't be a black hole offensively, and his length allows him to control the paint. Size and strength issues are overblown, IMO. Most rookies are over-matched in that area. They'll improve as his body matures and he fills out. Looks an awful lot like Marcus Camby to me.

ATL 1st (obviously dependent on the first pick)-

1. Chris Singleton - Love his athleticism and defensive versatility. Can guard 3-4 positions on the floor, depending on match ups. Needs to take fewer fouls.
2. Jordan Hamilton - Excellent all-around offensive skills and great rebounder for a 3. Potential starter if he can get the dumb out of his game.
3. Jeff Taylor - Super athlete. Can probably defend well enough from the get-go. More of a crash-3 at this point offensively. Needs coaching up, but has tremendous upside if he ever gets it.
4. Marcus Morris - Kind of a poor man's Derrick Williams, though less athletic. Nice efficiency on the offensive end and decent on the boards. Skill set is somewhat similar to Blatche, but I think the intangibles are better.
5. Kenneth Faried - Upside could be Ben Wallace on the defensive end. Love his rebounding and motor. His efficiency and skill shown in a few viewings lead me to believe there might be something there on the offensive end.

WSH 2nd-

1. Tyler Zeller - Nice touch and mobility for a big man. Solid production
2. Klay Thompson - Elite shooter, intelligent passer.
3. Nolan Smith - A winner combo guard who's been well-coached and has solid all-around game. Lacks size (for the 2) and good jumper. If Chris Duhon can be a productive player in the league, so can Smith.
4. Reggie Jackson - Physical and athletic guard. Efficient scorer and sees the floor well at the point.
5. Marshan Brooks - Big-time scorer who gets to the rim and rebounds well.
User avatar
SUPERBALLMAN
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,691
And1: 1,363
Joined: Aug 08, 2006
     

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1234 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:51 am

Washington vs Georgia game, chance to see 2nd round draft pick candidate Justin Holiday.
"I love it when a plan comes together" - Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
User avatar
SUPERBALLMAN
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,691
And1: 1,363
Joined: Aug 08, 2006
     

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1235 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Sat Mar 19, 2011 4:19 am

This is a reaaly tough draft.

There is alot to like about alot of prospects. On the surface Sullinger looks like the obvious choice. The biggest college star this year. But has questions about his ability physically to play PF in the NBA.

T.Jones is well rounded, physically ready, athletically capable, and high ceiling potential. But he has questionable shooting ability.

Barnes also has star potential. Has struggled to find his game this year at times, and tends to settle for jumpers and hang at the 3pt line alot.

Kanter, have'nt seen him play, and has knee issue.

P.Jones did enough to get booted from the post season. Descriptions of his ethic and mentality remind me of Blatche.

We could take another pg.
"I love it when a plan comes together" - Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
closg00
RealGM
Posts: 24,702
And1: 4,557
Joined: Nov 21, 2004

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1236 » by closg00 » Sat Mar 19, 2011 12:48 pm

Current Tankings

Toronto 19 49 36
Minnesota 17 53 39
Washington 16 51 38 ½
Sacramento 16 51 38 ½
Cleveland 13 54 41 ½

Very tight race for 2nd and 3rd worst record. We play Cleveland twice to end the season, but everything else looks like a loss on our schedule.

Results from my 10 tries at ESPN's mock lotto.
2,4,4,1,3,3,2,4,3,5
http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2011/mockdraft
theboomking
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,597
And1: 20
Joined: Jan 10, 2011

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1237 » by theboomking » Sat Mar 19, 2011 1:06 pm

closg00 wrote:Current Tankings

Toronto 19 49 36
Minnesota 17 53 39
Washington 16 51 38 ½
Sacramento 16 51 38 ½
Cleveland 13 54 41 ½

Very tight race for 2nd and 3rd worst record. We play Cleveland twice to end the season, but everything else looks like a loss on our schedule.

Results from my 10 tries at ESPN's mock lotto.
2,4,4,1,3,3,2,4,3,5
http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2011/mockdraft


We play NJ tomorrow, and it looks like DWilliams may be out with his wrist injury. Minnesota plays Sacremento tomorrow, so if we lose, we'll gain ground in the draft race one way or another.
User avatar
daSwami
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,284
And1: 563
Joined: Jun 14, 2002
Location: Charlottesville
         

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1238 » by daSwami » Sat Mar 19, 2011 7:44 pm

The more I've looked into it, the more stoked I'm getting for the draft. Even at 4 or 5 there is some talent to be had. For a draft class that's being billed as one of the weakest ever, I see at least 5 players that I think could upgrade the roster significantly (and that doesn't include Irving or either of the the big white euros, none of whom I've seen play). I really hope that Irving has a great tourny and that his draft stock remains high - as that could only improve our chances at landing Cap'n Sully. Perry Jones looks like a stud, too - although I've only watched him play once and he shot poorly that game. We we manage to land either of those guys, then I'd consider 2/5 of our roster set for the next several seasons. But Sully's my guy.

Then again, EG seems to favor trading high picks for veterans unless there's a guy that he's clearly targeting. that would suck.
:banghead:
User avatar
Rafael122
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 20,851
And1: 3,573
Joined: Oct 11, 2004
       

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1239 » by Rafael122 » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:00 pm

Tyler Honeycutt reminds me a little of Thabo Sefolosha.
Bickerstaff: who's up for kickball?!!
Ed Wood: Only if it's the no-pants variety.
User avatar
Illuminaire
Veteran
Posts: 2,970
And1: 606
Joined: Jan 04, 2010
 

Re: Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011 

Post#1240 » by Illuminaire » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:01 pm

I wouldn't worry about that this time around, Swami. EG has his marching orders (get youth, get good draft picks) and he's been following them near-perfectly.

Return to Washington Wizards