Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[Ruzious]

reminds me of the arguments over juan dixon instead of tayshaun prince. juan dixon was a baller and he would figure out a way to win despite his limitations.

Except that Prince was generally thought to have too many physical limitations (mainly strength) himself to make any impact in the NBA. Prince was a very skilled player at Kentucky.

[Rafael122]

The more I watch Barnes the less I like him. He just doesn't stand out enough on the court. Occasionally he'll do something good and its like "o yeah, there is that freshman that's supposed to be real good". Aside from rebounding better, his skills on offensive duplicate Nick Young's. Barnes just hangs out at the three point line way too much. Doesn't post-up or drive to the basket as much as you would expect someone of his caliber should do.

He's 18, I know, but if he doesn't do the things that wow you ( timely blocks, dunks, shots, etc..) against inferior college talent like Long Island, what can you honestly expect at the NBA level. My guess is the third or fourth best player on a championship team at best. Kind of disappointing if you ask me.

Why is being a third or fourth best player disappointing? We're not looking for a franchise player here because we already have one in John Wall. Barnes is a pretty good secon option man. If we draft him, we're not asking him to put the franchise on his shoulders. All we're asking him is to go along for the ride.

And as for blocking shots, dunks, post up, etc...he's a small forward.

Speaking of blocking shots. Henson worries me. The kid avoided or try to avoid contact at all costs. He's like McGee in that sense, only Henson has a higher basketball IQ. Weight and strength will be an issue with this kid.

[WizarDynasty]

if a player doesn't dominate inferior college competition at his position on the boards or shot blocks, then he isn't an nba small forward.
If what he specializes in his perimeter shooting, then he is a shooting guard.

[The Consiglieri]

To me, the analogy is the 2001 Draft. Suppose you were the GM on the clock at #4, after Kwame, Chandler, and Pau had been drafted. What do you do? (And no cheating, like saying "Duh, draft Gilbert Arenas!")

http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_draft_history/2001.html

Do you take the high upside guy in Eddy Curry? Think back to what we knew then, not what we know now. He was the guy who was supposed to be a game-changing Center. How about Jason Richardson? Remember, "SG is the easiest position to fill in the NBA." Do you use a top-5 pick on him? Trade down? There's no guarantee that you'd get the diamond in the rough with the lower pick anyway (though you might be just as likely to end up with Rodney White or Kedrick Perkins as with Joe Johnson or Zach Randolph. And if you are the type to shy away from "low ceiling" guys, then that's a near certainty.)

To me, the best option in hindsight would definitely be to take Shane Battier. Sure, he's a role player. He doesn't/didn't have "upside." But even with 10 years' perspective, wouldn't you rather have had Battier than any other realistic scenario?

Or take the 2009 draft. Suppose you had the 5th pick. (hypothetically speaking...) The options are: Flynn, Curry, Rubio, Jordan Hill, DeRozan, trade down/out. (Yes, I know - Jennings. But I'm still a bit of a skeptic on the prospect of him really becoming elite/efficient, still some ?s for me.)

The only guy who even looks like a good pick there is Curry. And can't you make all the same arguments about Curry that you would about, say, Sullinger? Can't defend. Too small. Can't start on a championship team. So in retrospect do you take Curry anyway, even if he's not "worthy of a top 5 pick"? Do you trade out of the draft to get cap relief? Trade down and hope you get a Jrue Holiday and not a James Johnson?

Point is, you have to deal with the reality of the situation in front of you. Get the guy who will be the best for your team, or make the deal that's the best for your team. Way too many teams have blown it by aiming for the high potential, upside guy while passing on what could have been a significant building block to make the team better - even if not championship level. I'd still rather have the solid guy who knows his role, gets it done, and sets the right tone for the team than the complete bust.

Give me Sullinger and I'm quite happy.

I'm fine with taking the safe pick when were talking about a draft pick outside the mid-to-early lottery. I strongly supported the drafting of Stephen Curry, well mainly b/c I didn't see him as a low upside player. I guess there's a difference b/w a low upside player and a safe pick. Battier was a low upside player and safe pick and I was firmly against taking him #1.

With a top five pick I want the best player possible. Drafting safe means choosing Okafor over Howard or taking Anthony over James (many analysts preferred Anthony b/c of what he did at Syracuse that one year). When your drafting that high I think going for the safest pick can be a catch 22. A safe pick may help your team but if a top 3 or 5 pick has limited upside, it will probably mean your team has a limited ceiling as well.

Well stated. I've always hated teams going for the safe, predictable pick. We've seen where that's gotten us in the past (although to be fair, in the past, a good percentage of the reasoning behind the picks was simply the fact that we took it in the rear in the lottery and so didnt have access to many reasonably high ceiling guys, often they were much higher bust risk guys with better ceilings but not necessairly high). If you want to see what happens when you want to go "fit", and find guys that aren't controversial or upsetting just look at the warriors post-Webber model. After the Webber debacle they preceeded to blow every single pick they used draft after draft going after high character guys w/lower upside to avoid the PR/chemistry destroying issues they enduered with Webber. As a result they ended up drafting Joe Smith instead of Rasheed Wallace or Kevin Garnett or McDyess, they took Jeff Fuller instead of Kobe Bryant, Adonal Foyle after guys like Tracy McGrady, the 1999 debacle, Mike Dunleavy in 2002, it goes on and on.

The lessons of the past are pretty clear, take the best player on the board with the most upside period. If you miss, you miss, sometimes all the scouts get it wrong, force the pick for other reasons and you should pay with your job, and your fans should rightfully toss you your rear. I can forgive a Kwame Brown error, every one and their mother had him #1 overall by a nose in 2001, what I can't forgive is a Joe Smith pick, a Jeff Fuller pick, a stubborn unwillingness to shoot for the stars with a player with genuine upside, and instead accept mediocrity and no better. Team's won't and can't win without taking risks, without landing genuine difference makers, when the lottery and then the draft come, we should be aiming for the stars, not simply for a reasonable fit.

[Dat2U]

I've come to the conclusion that this is the 2000 draft all over again. A top five pick in this draft is fools gold.

Sullinger is not the guy many are making him out to be.

[pancakes3]

wizD has a point. even durant was snagging 11 boards a game. melo pulled down a cool 10.0. . heck, beasley was grabbing 12 boards a game.

6/game is closer to "oversized 2-guard" territory like Jeff Green, Paul Pierce, etc and even then guys like granger was pulling down 9, and iggy was pulling down 8. the low rebounding numbers is a red flag.

[hands11]

So anyone have a breakdown on who we can to evaluate today ?

http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men ... h-carolina

wow, Zeller really go to the line in this game.

I'm a big Zeller fan, but take that game with a grain of salt - considering the competition. Today should be a better test. I LOVE UNC's front court. Interesting fact - UNC leads the nation in rebounds. I'm not sure how much of that is because of their pace and couldn't find what their rebound differential is. If anyone knows a site that has at least team rebound differential rates, please post it. I'm thinking - even though Zeller doesn't get a ton of rebounds, he probably doesn't need to, because his team out-rebounds everyone - so perhaps rebounding is not the weakness for him that it appears to be. Btw Henson - I think that's about a dozen straight dubba digit rebounding games.

http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men ... h-carolina

How about todays talent ? 7-7 from the line.

[Severn Hoos]

wizD has a point. even durant was snagging 11 boards a game. melo pulled down a cool 10.0. . heck, beasley was grabbing 12 boards a game.

6/game is closer to "oversized 2-guard" territory like Jeff Green, Paul Pierce, etc and even then guys like granger was pulling down 9, and iggy was pulling down 8. the low rebounding numbers is a red flag.

Difference is - Barnes doesn't just have to fight the other team's guys for the board, he's got to "fight" Henson & Zeller. When you already have such a strong rebounding team, it's hard for a SF to have astronomical rebounding numbers.

I love Granger, but pulling down 9 boards in the WAC with teammates like he had at New Mexico isn't as impressive as doing it in the ACC or Big East.

And FWIW, it was Todd Fuller from NCSt - which was indeed a laughably bad pick - but a dozen other teams passed on Kobe as well...

[tontoz]

Sactown beat Minny so now all 3 teams have 17 wins. Daly had 26/17 while Cousins had 3/4 and was ejected in the 3rd quarter. Then the Kings outscored Minny 42/20 in the 4th.

[hands11]

if a player doesn't dominate inferior college competition at his position on the boards or shot blocks, then he isn't an nba small forward.
If what he specializes in his perimeter shooting, then he is a shooting guard.

He looked like a SG.

Hey, Mods.

Can we get sub threads per player in here. It would make tracking players and comments on them a lot easier.

[mhd]

Kanter is the big enigma in this draft. When you here comparisons of Al Horford, I'm really intrigued. He did dominate Sullinger in the hoop summitt.

[hands11]

I've come to the conclusion that this is the 2000 draft all over again. A top five pick in this draft is fools gold.

Sullinger is not the guy many are making him out to be.

I was just watching him. Man that is a large fart maker on that dude.

Who in the NBA is build like him ?

Just looks like one of those guys that would have a hard time staying in shape.

[Dat2U]

Sullinger can dominate kids 6-8 and under b/c he's a coach's son. He's got excellent footwork, knows how to punish smaller players with his size and can utilize angles to create passing lanes and finish around the rim. But there isn't any lift or explosion to his game. He's getting a ton of point blank buckets in college that won't be available in the pros. I can't wait to see OSU & UNC meet up next week if both win their sweet 16 game. Sullinger's performance against an NBA sized frontline should be very telling. That game is an NBA scout's dream.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

He doesn't need lift or explosion IMO. Most guys like him are very successful in the NBA. Even DJ White is finding success in Charlotte. Craig Smith is still in the league and useful.

If you are worried about Sullinger, take a look at Chris Humphries. Humphries took a while but now he's a stud, and that's not including what the Kardashian sister apparently agrees on.

I think Sullinger can't help but be somewhere in the Al Jeffries mold. Or Boozer. Jared's as sure a success as any, particularly with a team that's got young guns like Wall, Jordan Crawford, and Nick Young in the backcourt.

Have faith, Dat. I defer to your superior draft knowledge but think this draft can't help but help the Wizards. I'm LOVING the character guys and maturity available in this draft. Guys like Singler and Matt Howard are going to be solid, successful NBA role players. They're not even sure round one guys!

Man, I'm thinking this draft is loaded with solid players.

[Ruzious]

Sullinger can dominate kids 6-8 and under b/c he's a coach's son. He's got excellent footwork, knows how to punish smaller players with his size and can utilize angles to create passing lanes and finish around the rim. But there isn't any lift or explosion to his game. He's getting a ton of point blank buckets in college that won't be available in the pros. I can't wait to see OSU & UNC meet up next week if both win their sweet 16 game. Sullinger's performance against an NBA sized frontline should be very telling. That game is an NBA scout's dream.

That's kinda what I thought early in the season, but he's grown on me. Height will be an issue, but he's a better athlete than you're giving him credit for. He's a quick jumper - he gets off the ground quicker than other players - and he's massive. He is a MUCH better athlete than Big Baby Davis. Actually, the player he reminds me most of is Zach Randolph (minus a little bit in length) - who could have had a great career if he had a decent attitude. And Sullinger has a great attitude and shows leadership ability.

[Ruzious]

So anyone have a breakdown on who we can to evaluate today ?

http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men ... h-carolina

wow, Zeller really go to the line in this game.

I'm a big Zeller fan, but take that game with a grain of salt - considering the competition. Today should be a better test. I LOVE UNC's front court. Interesting fact - UNC leads the nation in rebounds. I'm not sure how much of that is because of their pace and couldn't find what their rebound differential is. If anyone knows a site that has at least team rebound differential rates, please post it. I'm thinking - even though Zeller doesn't get a ton of rebounds, he probably doesn't need to, because his team out-rebounds everyone - so perhaps rebounding is not the weakness for him that it appears to be. Btw Henson - I think that's about a dozen straight dubba digit rebounding games.

http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men ... h-carolina

How about todays talent ? 7-7 from the line.

He earned it, too. I find it funny that people are saying the officials gave UNC the game. UNC gets fouled because they have an outstanding penetrating PG, and they have a skilled 7 footer that most college teams can't match up with unless they play him very physically. And they have an elastic-man like PF who's impossible to block off the boards. So, they draw a lot of fouls. And they had only a few more foul shot attempts.

UNC doesn't need officials to cheat for them like Duke does.

[hands11]

He doesn't need lift or explosion IMO. Most guys like him are very successful in the NBA. Even DJ White is finding success in Charlotte. Craig Smith is still in the league and useful.

If you are worried about Sullinger, take a look at Chris Humphries. Humphries took a while but now he's a stud, and that's not including what the Kardashian sister apparently agrees on.

I think Sullinger can't help but be somewhere in the Al Jeffries mold. Or Boozer. Jared's as sure a success as any, particularly with a team that's got young guns like Wall, Jordan Crawford, and Nick Young in the backcourt.

Have faith, Dat. I defer to your superior draft knowledge but think this draft can't help but help the Wizards. I'm LOVING the character guys and maturity available in this draft. Guys like Singler and Matt Howard are going to be solid, successful NBA role players. They're not even sure round one guys!

Man, I'm thinking this draft is loaded with solid players.

Im sure that is true, but are these bigs worth top 5 or would we be better off trading the pick or trading down.

I wish I could see Jan play. I'm that far down the list before I start getting comfortable.
Jan or Terrance ?

Barnes seems like he would be a solid pick just not sure where he fits if you have Wall, Nick and Crawford. Guess you could add him now and move him or another later.

[kirubel94]

Players to consider with the ATL pick
Jajuan Johnson- Just an athletic PF-C, Shoots very well, rebounds, and huge wingspan(had a great game today against VCU)
Markief Morris(All around big man)
Nolan Smith(Good Back-up PG)
Tobias Harris ( probably the biggest upside , if hes still available. Can shoot , get to the line, can be Carmelo Type of player if he reaches his full potential)
Chris Singelton( Great defender, Great Atlhethisim . needs to work on his Jumpshot)

[doclinkin]

So anyone have a breakdown on who we can to evaluate today ?

http://www.ncaa.com/game/basketball-men ... h-carolina

wow, Zeller really go to the line in this game.

I'm a big Zeller fan, but take that game with a grain of salt - considering the competition. Today should be a better test. I LOVE UNC's front court. Interesting fact - UNC leads the nation in rebounds. I'm not sure how much of that is because of their pace and couldn't find what their rebound differential is. If anyone knows a site that has at least team rebound differential rates, please post it.

Pace-adjusted rebounding rates: ODU is first. Tarheels are 9th after Pitt, Texas, San Diego State, UConn...

Here's the sort by pace.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Politically incorrect post alert. WARNING

I want the Wizards to draft at least two white players. Kanter or Valanciuas as top pick would be fine with me. I love Diebler. Love Parsons. Love Zeller. Like Jon Leuer. Like Singler. Know Fredette will be a solid role player if not a whole lot more. Matt Howard is going to be a serviceable pro.

If I can watch BlackPeopleMeet.com commercials all over NBATV then I can post draft a couple white players. I don't have to rationalize the politically incorrect. I won't say they're better players or more intelligent or anything like that because it's not true. If white players can be stereotyped as non-athletic or coachable I don't have to agree, because that's not necessarily true either.

I believe diversity works. I think Diebler being able to shoot would be a special player on a team bereft of shooters. I think Leuer is pretty much Yi or Rashard Lewis, and he's played four years in a tough conference. He's a big with a scorer's mentality who I believe runs better than Blatche. Parsons is a guy doclinkin mentioned before I had heard of him, and now I see the guy's a passer and all-around player at SF. He is a solid player in all phases of the game.

Okay, I posted it. Hopefully, we can discuss each of those players based on their games.

Me, I just felt like posting that. I really think any of those players can help.