Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[theboomking]

Below are the remaining scheduled games for the Wizards, Kings, and T Wolves. Honestly, I think Washington has the easiest schedule. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see us wind up 4th in the draft lotto.

Washington:
@ Portland
@ LAC
@ DEN
@ GSW
@ Utah
vs Miami
vs Cle
@ Cha
vs Det
@ Ind
@ Bos
vs Atl
vs Bos
@ Cle

Sacremento:
@ Chi
@ Mil
@ Ind
@ Phi
vs Phx
@ Den
vs Den
vs Utah
@ Hou
@ SAS
@ Mem
@ GSW
vs OKC
vs LAL

Minnesota:
@ Dal
@ OKC
vs Bos
vs Chi
vs Mia
@ Mem
@ NJN
vs Phx
@ Den
@ Phx
vs Hou

[Inliten1]

Dallas Lauderdale is listed at 6'8 and looks clearly taller than Sullinger who is listed at 6'9. Sullinger looks about 6'6 to me. Measurements aren't everything but a floor bound 6'6 simply won't work as a power forward in NBA.

If Barnes can can play the 2, that could be interesting. But I stand by the notion that he duplicates Nick Young on the offensive end (aside from being a better rebounder than Nick). With Barnes, if its not a spot up three pointer, its a turn around fadeway inside the arc. The same could be said about Nick. The Wizards need players who can score but in more versatile ways. Derrick Williams is that guy. He operates inside the three point line for the most part and that will help a lot with spacing and rebounding on offense. Image what it would look like with Nick, Wall, and Barnes all out around the three point line. That's doubling down on the whole jump shooting team issue.

Justin Harper from Richmond reminds me of a young Rashard Lewis. He could be worth a look.

[Kanyewest]

I've come to the conclusion that this is the 2000 draft all over again. A top five pick in this draft is fools gold.

Sullinger is not the guy many are making him out to be.

So not even a Kenyon Martin caliber, which was the can't miss prospect of the 2000? It's way too early to write off this draft, although I don't think there are any can't miss prospects; no one has really stood out yet.

[hands11]

Politically incorrect post alert. WARNING

I want the Wizards to draft at least two white players. Kanter or Valanciuas as top pick would be fine with me. I love Diebler. Love Parsons. Love Zeller. Like Jon Leuer. Like Singler. Know Fredette will be a solid role player if not a whole lot more. Matt Howard is going to be a serviceable pro.

If I can watch BlackPeopleMeet.com commercials all over NBATV then I can post draft a couple white players. I don't have to rationalize the politically incorrect. I won't say they're better players or more intelligent or anything like that because it's not true. If white players can be stereotyped as non-athletic or coachable I don't have to agree, because that's not necessarily true either.

I believe diversity works. I think Diebler being able to shoot would be a special player on a team bereft of shooters. I think Leuer is pretty much Yi or Rashard Lewis, and he's played four years in a tough conference. He's a big with a scorer's mentality who I believe runs better than Blatche. Parsons is a guy doclinkin mentioned before I had heard of him, and now I see the guy's a passer and all-around player at SF. He is a solid player in all phases of the game.

Okay, I posted it. Hopefully, we can discuss each of those players based on their games.

Me, I just felt like posting that. I really think any of those players can help.

You are a funny dude CCJ. I mean that in a good way. Interesting topic. Team make up. Personalities. Cultures. And how it affects or doesn't.

I think a Booker personality was a nice addition.

Now if you are talking an OP type white dude, no thanks. But I would take a Hansbourgh who was drafted last year type.

So are we talking white white or does Gastol count.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If Kanter counts, then I'd have to say both Gasols and Turkoglu counts as well.

hands, Booker and Seraphin and Crawford are so much the type players I like that I'm happy with Rico's daddy, EG.

[hands11]

Dallas Lauderdale is listed at 6'8 and looks clearly taller than Sullinger who is listed at 6'9. Sullinger looks about 6'6 to me. Measurements aren't everything but a floor bound 6'6 simply won't work as a power forward in NBA.

If Barnes can can play the 2, that could be interesting. But I stand by the notion that he duplicates Nick Young on the offensive end (aside from being a better rebounder than Nick). With Barnes, if its not a spot up three pointer, its a turn around fadeway inside the arc. The same could be said about Nick. The Wizards need players who can score but in more versatile ways. Derrick Williams is that guy. He operates inside the three point line for the most part and that will help a lot with spacing and rebounding on offense. Image what it would look like with Nick, Wall, and Barnes all out around the three point line. That's doubling down on the whole jump shooting team issue.

Justin Harper from Richmond reminds me of a young Rashard Lewis. He could be worth a look.

Yeah, but it would open things up for Yi to operate inside more

But on a more serious note. Even if they did go for Barnes, I actually think that would be solid. Sure you would be loaded at guard, but you can always move pieces later. If they went that way.

Wall/Crawford
NY/Barnes

That might well be the best front court in the league. And Barnes at 6-8 could maybe learn to drive in time and get SF minutes. It wouldn't be a terrible move. The team has lacked pure shooters.

And it would open things up for Booker, Dray and yes, even McGee inside. Plus, they will likely add something at PF. But yeah, they need to add a strong slashing finisher. But they could get that by just moving Dray to center and letting McGee play that role. Lord knows the kid can finish if he has a line to the basket. Imagine him a little stronger. That is the logic behind some more McGee at PF.

Let the floor bound bigger butt player with more experience play center.
Let the high jumping longer sprinter type play PF.

[Ruzious]

Players to consider with the ATL pick
Jajuan Johnson- Just an athletic PF-C, Shoots very well, rebounds, and huge wingspan(had a great game today against VCU)
Markief Morris(All around big man)
Nolan Smith(Good Back-up PG)
Tobias Harris ( probably the biggest upside , if hes still available. Can shoot , get to the line, can be Carmelo Type of player if he reaches his full potential)
Chris Singelton( Great defender, Great Atlhethisim . needs to work on his Jumpshot)

Jajuan Johnson really passes the eye test - I just wish he had half of Sullinger's junk in the trunk, because he doesn't seem to have the low body strength to hold rebounding position. But he can definitely play PF on a running team that rebounds well at other positions. He'll likely be there with the 20th pick and should be considered.
Tobias Harris is like a poor man's Melo - though he doesn't pass the eye test with his heavy legged look at SF - he's not exactly fast looking. I think he stays in school to improve his status.
Singleton could slip because of that injury. He'd be a nice pick.

Great link, Doc. Thanks.

[Ruzious]

The 1 guy on Ohio State that I don't think we've talked enough about is Buford. Diebler's gotten a lot of attention for his amazing 3 point shooting numbers, but I think Buford has every bit the range and can become a starting 2 in the NBA - if he works a little harder to build up his body. He reminds me of Ellington when he was at UNC. And he - like Lighty - has shown to be an unselfish player who does a nice job of passing the ball. He's not the defender that Lighty is, though.

[nate33]

The 1 guy on Ohio State that I don't think we've talked enough about is Buford. Diebler's gotten a lot of attention for his amazing 3 point shooting numbers, but I think Buford has every bit the range and can become a starting 2 in the NBA - if he works a little harder to build up his body. He reminds me of Ellington when he was at UNC. And he - like Lighty - has shown to be an unselfish player who does a nice job of passing the ball. He's not the defender that Lighty is, though.

Agreed. Buford is a good player. He has a complete game that should translate well on the NBA level. Buford is solid defensively with his only liability being his lack of strength. (He's not as good as Lighty defensively because Lighty is one of the most technically sound defenders I've ever seen at the college level). He handles well, he shoots well. He has a midrange game. And he can take it to the rack.

I'm concerned that Sullinger won't be as good as expected in the pros. I think Buford will be a better pro than expected.

[nate33]

Pace-adjusted rebounding rates: ODU is first. Tarheels are 9th after Pitt, Texas, San Diego State, UConn...

Here's the sort by pace.

It's worth noting that UNC shoots better than many of the teams on this list. As a result, they have fewer offensive rebounding opportunities (note that they rank considerably lower in offensive rebounds per game). My guess is that UNC would rank higher if the stat was rebounding percentage rather than pace-adjusted rebounds per game. Rebounding percentage is the more accurate stat.

While we're on the subject of Barnes' rebounding, I also think it's worth noting that Barnes actually plays SF at the college level. WizD's criticism that Barnes doesn't dominate the glass on the college level like similarly sized players is offset by the fact that most 6-8, long armed guys actually play the PF position in college. There are more rebounding opportunities at PF.

[Dat2U]

He doesn't need lift or explosion IMO. Most guys like him are very successful in the NBA. Even DJ White is finding success in Charlotte. Craig Smith is still in the league and useful.

If you are worried about Sullinger, take a look at Chris Humphries. Humphries took a while but now he's a stud, and that's not including what the Kardashian sister apparently agrees on.

I think Sullinger can't help but be somewhere in the Al Jeffries mold. Or Boozer. Jared's as sure a success as any, particularly with a team that's got young guns like Wall, Jordan Crawford, and Nick Young in the backcourt.

Have faith, Dat. I defer to your superior draft knowledge but think this draft can't help but help the Wizards. I'm LOVING the character guys and maturity available in this draft. Guys like Singler and Matt Howard are going to be solid, successful NBA role players. They're not even sure round one guys!

Man, I'm thinking this draft is loaded with solid players.

Comparing Sullinger to Kris Humphries doesn't exactly instill confidence that he's worthy of a top five pick. Neither does mentioning marginal talents like D.J. White or Craig Smith. No one is doubting Sullinger's ability to be a solid contributor in the NBA but the question is this: Is Sullinger worthy of a top 5 pick?

Guys like Al Jefferson & Carlos Boozer are very productive but they've won nothing. Jefferson, like our old friend Antawn Jamison has been a career loser. Jefferson is one of the most skilled low post players in the world and can get 20 in his sleep. But he's terrible defensive player. Arguably one of the worst in the league. There was a very good reason why Minnesota traded him for basically nothing. You simply can't win with a guy like that starting. Boozer gets exposed in the playoffs every year. Simply put, defense matters. Having the length & the foot speed to defend & challenge shots in the post matters. Sullinger may be a saint in a basketball uniform but he's doughboy who's going to be too short & one step too slow to be worthy of a top pick.

If we were talking late lottery or mid-first for Sullinger then fine. Get the best value and go from there. But if were trying to build a contender the right way and we've got a top five pick we need to look elsewhere. Sullinger might help us get to respectability and might be a great locker room guy and interview, but he isn't going to help us win playoff games. The physical profile just isn't there.

I agree with you that this draft has good depth. I personally think that some of the best talent out of this draft may come outside the top 7 or 8 choices. But it certainly lacks star potential. I honestly dread the idea of having a top 3 pick this year and hope we lose the lottery because IMO, there's no one worthy of being picked that high.

[doclinkin]

Pace-adjusted rebounding rates: ODU is first. Tarheels are 9th after Pitt, Texas, San Diego State, UConn...

Here's the sort by pace.

It's worth noting that UNC shoots better than many of the teams on this list. As a result, they have fewer offensive rebounding opportunities (note that they rank considerably lower in offensive rebounds per game). My guess is that UNC would rank higher if the stat was rebounding percentage rather than pace-adjusted rebounds per game. Rebounding percentage is the more accurate stat.

Maybe, but if you adjust the sort for defensive boards they actually drop to 13th in the rankings.

They don't rank highly in a sort for either Offensive Rebounding % or Defensive OR% (which is an arcane way to isolate DR% but it's the same thing). Here-- but the kenpom glossary says that their boxscore stats don't calculate team rebounds so maybe this is where they shine brightest.

[closg00]

Derrick Williams is really keeping his stock up-there with his NCAA play.

On a side-note, I wonder if the Cavs would trade Side-Show for Irving & their 8th pick?

[theboomking]

He doesn't need lift or explosion IMO. Most guys like him are very successful in the NBA. Even DJ White is finding success in Charlotte. Craig Smith is still in the league and useful.

If you are worried about Sullinger, take a look at Chris Humphries. Humphries took a while but now he's a stud, and that's not including what the Kardashian sister apparently agrees on.

I think Sullinger can't help but be somewhere in the Al Jeffries mold. Or Boozer. Jared's as sure a success as any, particularly with a team that's got young guns like Wall, Jordan Crawford, and Nick Young in the backcourt.

Have faith, Dat. I defer to your superior draft knowledge but think this draft can't help but help the Wizards. I'm LOVING the character guys and maturity available in this draft. Guys like Singler and Matt Howard are going to be solid, successful NBA role players. They're not even sure round one guys!

Man, I'm thinking this draft is loaded with solid players.

Comparing Sullinger to Kris Humphries doesn't exactly instill confidence that he's worthy of a top five pick. Neither does mentioning marginal talents like D.J. White or Craig Smith. No one is doubting Sullinger's ability to be a solid contributor in the NBA but the question is this: Is Sullinger worthy of a top 5 pick?

Guys like Al Jefferson & Carlos Boozer are very productive but they've won nothing. Jefferson, like our old friend Antawn Jamison has been a career loser. Jefferson is one of the most skilled low post players in the world and can get 20 in his sleep. But he's terrible defensive player. Arguably one of the worst in the league. There was a very good reason why Minnesota traded him for basically nothing. You simply can't win with a guy like that starting. Boozer gets exposed in the playoffs every year. Simply put, defense matters. Having the length & the foot speed to defend & challenge shots in the post matters. Sullinger may be a saint in a basketball uniform but he's doughboy who's going to be too short & one step too slow to be worthy of a top pick.

If we were talking late lottery or mid-first for Sullinger then fine. Get the best value and go from there. But if were trying to build a contender the right way and we've got a top five pick we need to look elsewhere. Sullinger might help us get to respectability and might be a great locker room guy and interview, but he isn't going to help us win playoff games. The physical profile just isn't there.

I agree with you that this draft has good depth. I personally think that some of the best talent out of this draft may come outside the top 7 or 8 choices. But it certainly lacks star potential. I honestly dread the idea of having a top 3 pick this year and hope we lose the lottery because IMO, there's no one worthy of being picked that high.

So, if you have to pick the guy with the highest ceiling, then I guess we'd have to target Perry Jones?

Frankly, the idea that you would like to lose the lottery so you don't have a high pick makes no sense. In the NBA, it is only minimally worse not to get conrtibutions from a guy you picked 1st overall, then it is for a guy picked 8th overall. Because of the rookie salary scale, it isn't like top picks kill your cap. What is the disadvantage of picking 2nd over 8th? Psychological? Can't handle the disappointment of a busted high pick instead of a busted low pick? The 1st pick always has the most value, even in an off year, because you can pick the guy YOU like best.

Dat, what do you think about Barnes? I'm not sure why everyone is talking about him as a 2. He is a 3. I've been watching a good bit of Barnes, and he has been driving the lane much more aggressively. Barnes does affect games with more than his shooting. At the end of the Washington game on Sunday, Barnes had a key rebound and a key steal in the waning minutes, to add to his 22 points. Barnes has the killer instinct to knock down game winners, and to bring his team back from behind. I don't see how he duplicates NY. Even if Barnes can only knock down mid-range and perimeter jumpers, which I don't believe, don't we need that? Having guys that can shoot the ball will spread the floor for Wall to drive, and give him players that he can kick out to, that can score. Don't get me wrong, we need a post presence, but when we add that player, won't he also benefit from having a 2 and a 3 that can shoot from outside and help spread the floor? Hasn't anyone else notice Wall's assist totals drop precipitously when all of our good shooters went down or became ineffective due to injury?

Also, speaking of Kris Humphries, he's an URFA this year. I wouldn't mind drafting Barnes or Perry Jones to play SF, and adding Humphries to help clean the glass.

[Dark Faze]

Saw Derrick Williams for the first time yesterday and looked back at some of his recent performances, stats, etc.

He's the best prospect I've seen from the college ranks in a while...and maybe the best one of them all as it concerns the eye test.

His offensive skills are unbelievable given the fact that he's a true banging PF. He's unlike Beasley in that he's a monster in the post, fights hard for position, and effects the game extremely well even off-ball. I couldn't believe the things he was doing as a true PF...he's got better ball handle than most GUARDS in the league, and without a doubt has the best ball handle of any PF in the NBA right now.

I'm shocked that he isn't the consensus #1 overall with the hype that a Blake Griffin/Derrick Rose/Etc got.

And it's unbelievable how well he'd fit within this system with Wall.

You pick Derrick Williams anyway you can get him (if you have to trade a late 1st to move up to get him you do it, but hopefully it's not necessary), then get some bruising bigs to hopefully compete over the center position...then you take this new talent and hopefully turn some heads by coming close to making the playoffs next year, make a run at Dwight Howard with this young core and failing that then pick up whatever free agents you need to get you into the playoffs.

Pretty simple.

But I don't really like anyone other than Derrick. Williams as a true PF has better handle than Harrison Barnes...maybe 3x the handle. He's like a shorter Amare with better ball handling and with the chance to be a better shooter. He bangs like a PF...has a strong base.

It's a no brainer pick...we shouldn't even consider anyone else.

I hated Barnes last night. His handle moves him maybe an inch laterally...he doesn't finish at the rim well...he's just a great shooter. His ceiling is Luol Deng.

Sullinger is GREAT, but I like Williams as a better fit for this team. He could arguably be better than Wall imo..it's that perfect duo that OKC has with Durant and Westbrook.

[theboomking]

I like Williams, but think you're going a bit overboard. I don't think it is safe to evaluate a prospect based on one game. I've watched a ton of Williams this year, and my first impression was the same as yours. With more views though, Williams shrank on me rather than growing on me. He doesn't have the height or length to be a great NBA defender. I like Sullinger as much as Williams on D, and Terrence Jones is a better defender than both.

I also disagree about Williams' ball handling ability. Williams has a great first step and can penetrate quickly off of one or two dribbles. Beyond that, I would say his ball handling is pretty average. Williams is a good outside shooter, but has not shown any ability to create a mid range or perimeter shot off the dribble, and certainly is nowhere near as good as Barnes is in that regard. People who want him to be a Beasley or a Melo, are looking at the wrong guy. Williams isn't a ball handler that is going to handle the ball and create shots for himself, or take a lot of long, contested 2's. He is an undersized PF that can bang down low, utilizes excellent shot selection to score efficiently, can penetrate off of one or two dribbles, and can knock down the outside shot when players back off of him to keep him from driving. William's may look a but like Blake Griffin in transition, but doesn't have the power that Griffin does, and is shorter than Griffin. I don't expect him to be the revelation that Blake has been. Would I be unhappy with the pick? No. But, I wouldn't be ecstatic either, and I certainly wouldn't trade up for him.

I also think you're sleeping on Barnes a bit Dark Faze. I really think he will be good at the next level, and if he doesn't turn out to be a Paul Pierce quality player, should still complement Wall nicely. Barnes was very passive at the beginning of the year, but I really think that if he had played at his current level all year, that Barnes would be in contention for the 1st pick overall. I love that he has shown the killer instinct to take the big shots at the end of games and make them.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

Yeah Williams as the next Wall or Durant after one viewing is a bit much. BUT...

I don't see why he can't be our David West to Wall's CP3. Same size, same shooting touch, and arguably a much higher ceiling. With his touch and feel for offense he'd be a GREAT forward to run the pick and roll with Wall.

And he also seems fine creating shots for himself and finding ways to score. He's one of the most efficient scorers according to TS% in all of college basketball. And his ability to get to the line is remarkable. He concerns me a little due to his size. But we need more players who can score efficiently regardless of their position and he fits the bill. We could definitely do worse.

[Dark Faze]

Barnes scared the hell out of me yesterday with his ball hall-handling. When he had a clear iso set he'd make an attempt at a lateral crossover and he moved maybe an inch...his lateral movement and ball handling make him unlikely to be a top tear scorer at the next level. He will knock down the mid-range jumpshot with relative ease at the next level and take the big shot without fear...but I prefer Williams as someone who can be the Robin to Walls Batman...while making a good run at that batman mask in the process much like how Russ is trying to make himself as big as Durant this season.

Wall also complements Derrick really well. The PNR would be fantastic between them and he'd be the perfect bailout pass for Wall to go to when the half-court offense stalls...unlike Blatche. I love Barnes' poise as well as his attitude. We need a guy like him...I wouldn't cry if we got him but to me Derrick Williams is the guy.

[theboomking]

Dark Faze, I still disagree about Barnes, but see where you are coming from. You make a good point about Williams and Wall on the PNR. One concern I have with Williams is that he has been outplayed by some larger, longer collegiate PF's this year. I guess we'll see what happens.

[Ruzious]

Dat, what do you think about Barnes? I'm not sure why everyone is talking about him as a 2. He is a 3. I've been watching a good bit of Barnes, and he has been driving the lane much more aggressively.

I watched most of the game yesterday and didn't see him drive even 1 time. He tried to once with less than 2 minutes left and failed - ending up taking and missing a 15 footer. No penetrating - no foul shots. He still played well, but going forward - against the better teams, he's got to do more. He did make a nice steal and outlet pass, and he did hit some clutch shots near the end. He gets 15 rebounds against a bad team and 1 or 2 against good teams.

We've seen the evidence - without a PG creating for him, he's ineffective. With a good PG creating for him, he can knock down jumpers - but he hasn't shown - so far, anyway - that he can do anything else offensively.