Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[Halcyon]

This is just a gut feeling, from various reports I've seen about numerous prospects, but...I have this terrible feeling that this draft will be even weaker than we are thinking right now. I feel like there have been numerous reports about guys who are going to stay at school, rather than come out. Whether that actually happens or not we'll see. The looming lockout may play part in even less guys coming out than expected.

Just our luck ay?

[Kanyewest]

Dat, what do you think about Barnes? I'm not sure why everyone is talking about him as a 2. He is a 3. I've been watching a good bit of Barnes, and he has been driving the lane much more aggressively.

I watched most of the game yesterday and didn't see him drive even 1 time. He tried to once with less than 2 minutes left and failed - ending up taking and missing a 15 footer. No penetrating - no foul shots. He still played well, but going forward - against the better teams, he's got to do more. He did make a nice steal and outlet pass, and he did hit some clutch shots near the end. He gets 15 rebounds against a bad team and 1 or 2 against good teams.

We've seen the evidence - without a PG creating for him, he's ineffective. With a good PG creating for him, he can knock down jumpers - but he hasn't shown - so far, anyway - that he can do anything else offensively.

I do remember Barnes driving into the lane, absorbing contact from Aziz N'Diaye (probably Hamady's brother), and scoring a layup. Although I agree he may not have attacked the basket, he did what he did best which was stay on the perimeter to knock down jumpers. UNC was still getting points in the paint from Zeller. It would be interesting if he could fit into that role on another team given that UNC doesn't appear to have other great perimeter scorers on the team; which would prevent Barnes from driving to the basket as much.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

This is just a gut feeling, from various reports I've seen about numerous prospects, but...I have this terrible feeling that this draft will be even weaker than we are thinking right now.

As news comes out Barnes is talking about staying in school, it appears your gut is prophetic.

But I can't really complain about "luck," not after winning the Wall sweepstakes last year.

[verbal8]

This is just a gut feeling, from various reports I've seen about numerous prospects, but...I have this terrible feeling that this draft will be even weaker than we are thinking right now. I feel like there have been numerous reports about guys who are going to stay at school, rather than come out. Whether that actually happens or not we'll see. The looming lockout may play part in even less guys coming out than expected.

Just our luck ay?

I really don't see rookie deals being significantly worse than they are currently in a new CBA. Maybe the second half of the 1st round gets less money guaranteed, but I don't see a major change. If a team drafts well, the rookie deal is already such a bargain, that it would be hard for the owners to argue that they need to take money from the top rookies. The only scenario I could see is the owners try to deliberately screw rookies, to weaken the union down the road.

If an underclassman comes out and there is no season, aren't they stuck in limbo, where they basically have to find a one year deal to play abroad. So I think the draft will see a lot of seniors and international players. For an international player it might make sense to come to the NBA as the 10th draft pick, but not say the 25th in a deeper draft.

[Dark Faze]

This is just a gut feeling, from various reports I've seen about numerous prospects, but...I have this terrible feeling that this draft will be even weaker than we are thinking right now. I feel like there have been numerous reports about guys who are going to stay at school, rather than come out. Whether that actually happens or not we'll see. The looming lockout may play part in even less guys coming out than expected.

Just our luck ay?

Which is why I said I might be willing to trade up to get a guy like Derrick Williams. It's better than settling on Terrence Jones and a scrub with Atlantas pick.

But it all depends on the roll of the ball...

[Halcyon]

I think I would be comfortable with a top 3 selection. Anything after that may diminish in value very quickly. The problem I see is that I am pretty sure I've seen D.Williams, Sullinger, and now Barnes say at one point or another that they are going back to school. Now guys say that all the time and declare anyway once draft decision time rolls around, but it makes me very worried.

[fishercob]

Haven't had a chance to post much in recent days, but I wanted to share a few thoughts:

1) I'm really enjoying some of the new posters to these parts like theboomking, Dark Faze, etc

2) After getting a little look at Faried, I'm really not all that interested in him. I love his motor, sure. But I think he's able to take advantage of worse athletes in the college game in a way that he just won't in the pro's. Athletically, he's less impressive to me than Booker. He doesn't get as high, he can't ass guys out the way like Booker can, and he doesn't seem to have much of an offensive game. I'd probably feel differently if we didn't have Booker, but I don't see Faried bringing much to the table that Trevor doesn't already.

3) I'm very impressed with Derrick Williams. I guess I see some of the tweener concerns but he's just a good basketball player. Offensively, I love his range and his post game. I think the Melo comparisons come from the fact that Melo does a lot of his damage down low (he played almost exclusively PF in FIBA ball, which may be more analagous to college ball). While I don't see creating off the dribble as a strength for him, I wonder how much he'd be asked to do so playing with John Wall. Defensively, I don't know. He seems like more of a 3 than a 4 to me.

4) I'm intrigued by the Morrises, but think they should actually be considered as a package deal. Twins are different. I suspect they've never played apart -- let alone lived apart -- their entire lives. I also think the whole can be greater than the sum of the parts (like with hockey's Sedin twins). I wouldn't draft one without the other. I'd at least be interested in looking into what it would take to draft both.

5) Overall, the quality of play in the college game just sucks compared to the NBA. I do fear that this is a weak draft, and don't see a lot of guys who are going to come in and be big time players right away.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

To me the top three are starting to settle out:

Irving, sullinger and Williams in no particular order.

After that, there are several players with huge upside... But these three guys are guaranteed, atleast good, pros.

I'd be tickled with Williams or sullinger and Tristan Thompsen (better than Faried)

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

To me the top three are starting to settle out:

Irving, sullinger and Williams in no particular order.

After that, there are several players with huge upside... But these three guys are guaranteed, atleast good, pros.

I'd be tickled with Williams or sullinger and Tristan Thompsen (better than Faried)

[Dat2U]

So, if you have to pick the guy with the highest ceiling, then I guess we'd have to target Perry Jones?

Frankly, the idea that you would like to lose the lottery so you don't have a high pick makes no sense. In the NBA, it is only minimally worse not to get conrtibutions from a guy you picked 1st overall, then it is for a guy picked 8th overall. Because of the rookie salary scale, it isn't like top picks kill your cap. What is the disadvantage of picking 2nd over 8th? Psychological? Can't handle the disappointment of a busted high pick instead of a busted low pick? The 1st pick always has the most value, even in an off year, because you can pick the guy YOU like best.

Psychological for the player. The pressure of being a top 3 pick is enormous and I don't think any of these guys could live up to it. Especially if its the #1 pick. I like Perry Jones, but I wouldn't take him first. Personally, if I was GM and we landed the pick. I'd trade out of that slot. This is the year NOT to have that pick. Unfortunately for me, I know under Teddy, that will never happen. This year, I really don't see the point in tanking.

Dat, what do you think about Barnes? I'm not sure why everyone is talking about him as a 2. He is a 3. I've been watching a good bit of Barnes, and he has been driving the lane much more aggressively. Barnes does affect games with more than his shooting. At the end of the Washington game on Sunday, Barnes had a key rebound and a key steal in the waning minutes, to add to his 22 points. Barnes has the killer instinct to knock down game winners, and to bring his team back from behind. I don't see how he duplicates NY. Even if Barnes can only knock down mid-range and perimeter jumpers, which I don't believe, don't we need that? Having guys that can shoot the ball will spread the floor for Wall to drive, and give him players that he can kick out to, that can score. Don't get me wrong, we need a post presence, but when we add that player, won't he also benefit from having a 2 and a 3 that can shoot from outside and help spread the floor? Hasn't anyone else notice Wall's assist totals drop precipitously when all of our good shooters went down or became ineffective due to injury?

I think Barnes is just OKAY. He's a role player for sure. A shooter. Potentially a very good shooter. I certainly believe he's a SF. I like him better than Wesley Johnson. Forget about him being a slasher. He doesn't have the ball-handling or explosiveness, that's why he's not an elite talent. Definitely not a top 3 pick IMO. But if your drafting 5th/6th or later an argument can be made for him. I think he's a safe pick but if your looking for a big time talent look elsewhere, he's not it.

Also, speaking of Kris Humphries, he's an URFA this year. I wouldn't mind drafting Barnes or Perry Jones to play SF, and adding Humphries to help clean the glass.

I'm against spending any money long term in free agency. We need to stop thinking about adding role players and find legit starters to run with Wall. It's too early in the rebuilding process to even think about spending FA money on role players at this point.

[mhd]

Dat, what are your thoughts on Kanter?

[Kanyewest]

Haven't had a chance to post much in recent days, but I wanted to share a few thoughts:

1) I'm really enjoying some of the new posters to these parts like theboomking, Dark Faze, etc

Agreed.
[/quote]

2) After getting a little look at Faried, I'm really not all that interested in him. I love his motor, sure. But I think he's able to take advantage of worse athletes in the college game in a way that he just won't in the pro's. Athletically, he's less impressive to me than Booker. He doesn't get as high, he can't ass guys out the way like Booker can, and he doesn't seem to have much of an offensive game. I'd probably feel differently if we didn't have Booker, but I don't see Faried bringing much to the table that Trevor doesn't already.

I'm not high on Faried either. While he can rebound, his offensive game looks very limited. His defense doesn't seem to be that great from what I saw.

3) I'm very impressed with Derrick Williams. I guess I see some of the tweener concerns but he's just a good basketball player. Offensively, I love his range and his post game. I think the Melo comparisons come from the fact that Melo does a lot of his damage down low (he played almost exclusively PF in FIBA ball, which may be more analagous to college ball). While I don't see creating off the dribble as a strength for him, I wonder how much he'd be asked to do so playing with John Wall. Defensively, I don't know. He seems like more of a 3 than a 4 to me.

I would say that Williams compares to 2008 Melo. As for college Melo, Melo was a much better prospect, I believe he had a more consistent jumper and much better ball handling abilities. He also rand point forward on that team when McNamara was out.

I only caught the end of the Arizona/Texas game, and I wasn't that impressed what I saw from Williams to make me be ecstatic about getting him in the draft even though he did come through in the clutch.

[theboomking]

I agree about Humphries Dat. I just don't think we're going to see eye to eye about it being better to draft later, but that is fine. I know you don't love Barnes. I was curious to hear your thoughts on how Jordan Hamilton compares to Harrison Barnes. Hamilton is definitely more explosive, but doesn't look as long to my eye, and doesn't seem to quite have the end of game magic that Harrison has. We're also comparing a sophomore to a freshman, which has to he accounted for.

Fishercob, I'm starting to feel you on Faried. I'm embarassed to admit that he is the one prospect I haven't seen play, so take my opinion on Faried as heresay. Faried as played some big games against top competition, bu seems to be fizzling lately. I've watched a ton of Williams and Sullinger, a good bit of Barnes and Terrence Jones, and a substantive amount of Jordan Hamilton and Perry Jones.

Edit: watching second half of Texas v Arizona. Tristan Thompson is putting the D to Derrick Williams. Williams dribnling at the top of the 3 point line and travels. The announcer agrees with me saying "derrick williams continues to have his problems. Tristan Thompson has him ALL out of whack..." He is going to have to face longer, more athletic players in the NBA. I don't think I'd take Williams before Kanter, Barnes, Perry Jones, or Sullinger. Unless Arizona goes deep into the tournament on Derrick's shoulders, I see Williams going more in the 5 to 8 range.

[Dat2U]

Dat, what are your thoughts on Kanter?

I think because I have seen him the least; the fact he's got a legit frame for a big man; the rumors of him dominating UK practices; the youtube footage of him domination NCAA competition (including Sullinger) in an all-star game - he's near the top of my draft board.

The only players I marginally like near the top of the draft right now are Kanter & PJ III.

Williams has tweener written all over him. The David West comparisons hold some weight. Would anyone take David West with the #1 pick in the draft? Just curious. Also how much has New Orleans won with David West as their 2nd option?

If I thought Williams could play SF full time I'd be higher on him. But I have my doubts.

Again if were drafting 5th or lower I'd probably be okay with Williams but I'm cringing if were making him a top 3 pick.

It's hard for me to construct a draft order. I honestly would say my feelings about the draft are this.

1. No one
2. No one
3. PG Kyrie Irving
4. SF Perry Jones III
5. CE Enes Kanter
6. PG Kemba Walker
7. PF Derrick Williams
8. SF Harrison Barnes
9. PF Jared Sullinger
10. PF Jan Vesely
11. PF Jon Henson
11. PG Brandon Knight
12. CE Jonas Valanciunas
13. SF Terrence Jones
14. PF Tristan Thompson

[theboomking]

Dat, what are your thoughts on Kanter?

I think because I have seen him the least; the fact he's got a legit frame for a big man; the rumors of him dominating UK practices; the youtube footage of him domination NCAA competition (including Sullinger) in an all-star game - he's near the top of my draft board.

The only players I marginally like near the top of the draft right now are Kanter & PJ III.

Williams has tweener written all over him. The David West comparisons hold some weight. Would anyone take David West with the #1 pick in the draft? Just curious. Also how much has New Orleans won with David West as their 2nd option?

If I thought Williams could play SF full time I'd be higher on him. But I have my doubts.

Again if were drafting 5th or lower I'd probably be okay with Williams but I'm cringing if were making him a top 3 pick.

It's hard for me to construct a draft order. I honestly would say my feelings about the draft are this.

1. No one
2. No one
3. PG Kyrie Irving
4. SF Perry Jones III
5. CE Enes Kanter
6. PG Kemba Walker
7. PF Derrick Williams
8. SF Harrison Barnes
9. PF Jared Sullinger
10. PF Jan Vesely
11. PF Jon Henson
11. PG Brandon Knight
12. CE Jonas Valanciunas
13. SF Terrence Jones
14. PF Tristan Thompson

I like your draft order, but think Kemba Walker is too high, and Barnes too low. I think I'd go:

1.noone
2. Irving
3a/b. Kanter/Perry Jones
5.Barnes
6.Sullinger
7.Derrick Williams
8. Jonas Valanciunas
9. Brandon Knight
10. Jan Vesely
11. Jon Henson
12.Donatas Montiejunas
13.Kemba Walker
14. Tristan Thompson
15. Jordan Hamilton

I'm not to settled on it though. I did scratch my head a bit more on Jordan Hamilton. I think he has a chance to go in the lottery. Hamilton is listed at 6'7", and maybe he is, in shoes, but he looks to lack ideal length for the 3. Hamilton has very good athleticism, and may well be effective slashing to the basket, but he is a streaky shooter who utilizes poor shot selection. The one work I'd use to describe him is, "chucker". He may be better off if he can play the 2 in the NBA, but I'm not sure if he can do it.

Also, the Nike Hoops Summit 2011 rosters were just announced.

Nike Hoop Summit Announces 2011 Rosters
Mar 21, 2011 3:17 PM EDT
The 2011 Nike Hoop Summit will be played on April 9th at the Rose Garden in Portland.

Leading the way for the USA will be four players who helped the USA to gold at both the 2009 FIBA Americas U16 Championship and the 2010 FIBA U17 World Championship, including 2010 FIBA U17 World Championship MVP Brad Beal (Chaminade College Prep/St. Louis, Mo.), Quinn Cook (Oak Hill Academy/Bowie, Md.), James McAdoo (Norfolk Christian/ Norfolk, Va.) and Adonis Thomas (Melrose H.S./Cordova, Tenn.).

The USA Junior National Select team also features 2010 USA U17 gold medalists Michael Gilchrist (St. Patrick H.S./Somerdale, N.J.), Marquis Teague (Pike H.S./Indianapolis, Ind.) and Tony Wroten (Garfield H.S./Seattle, Wash.), as well as Austin Rivers (Winter Park H.S./Winter Park, Fla.), who helped lead the USA to a gold medal in the 2010 FIBA Americas U18 Championship.

Rounding out the roster are USA Basketball newcomers Rakeem Christmas (Academy of the New Church/Philadelphia, Pa.) and Anthony Davis (Perspectives Charter/Chicago, Ill.).

Kyle Wiltjer, a 6’9” forward from the Jesuit High School will represent Canada on the World Select Team.

Along with Wiltjer, the other forward positions are taken by Dario Saric (6’9”, KK Zagreb CC and Croatia) and Davis Bertans (6’7”, Union Olimpija and Latvia).

Mateusz Ponitka (6’5”, Tempcold AZS and Poland), Kevin Pangos (6’1”, Dr Denison H.S., Ontario, Canada), Evan Fournier (6’6”, Union Poitiers and France) and Raul Neto (6’2”, Pitagoras/Minas and Brazil) will be featured as guards.

The global squad is currently rounded off with centers Lucas Nogueira (7’0”, Estudiantes and Brazil) and Przemyslaw Karnowski (7’0”, SMS PZKosz and Poland).



Read more: http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/21 ... z1HI0dQ8Pl

[pcbothwel]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SOU7J3_ ... ded#at=443

Here is a video of Jonas Valanciunas against another highly touted 5-man.

The more I see of Valanciunas the more I like. He is not a high jumper but his arms are reaalllly long, and his quick feet are extremely rare for a player his size. From the moment the ball hits his hands or when he decides to go for a rebound/block, he gets off the floor. I think he'll become a more explosive leaper in time.
This off-season has a real strong chance of gettin dicey if the players feel their will be a lockout. Guys like Irving and Barnes could easily go back to school and a euro like Jonas then becomes much more valuable due to the shaloowing of the talent pool and his ability to stay overseas for a year.

[doclinkin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SOU7J3_wZc&feature=player_embedded#at=443

Here is a video of Jonas Valanciunas against another highly touted 5-man.

The more I see of Valanciunas the more I like. He is not a high jumper but his arms are reaalllly long, and his quick feet are extremely rare for a player his size. From the moment the ball hits his hands or when he decides to go for a rebound/block, he gets off the floor. I think he'll become a more explosive leaper in time.
This off-season has a real strong chance of gettin dicey if the players feel their will be a lockout. Guys like Irving and Barnes could easily go back to school and a euro like Jonas then becomes much more valuable due to the shaloowing of the talent pool and his ability to stay overseas for a year.

Andersen Varejao.

I was trying to figure out who Jonny V reminded me of defensively. He's not there yet but he's got potential for the annoying hassling hustle of early Sideshow Bob. No great strength yet, but he's game for whatever. Until he develops a bit more savvy and cunning, he's gonna get ragdolled by Dwight Howard and wear the testicle headband courtesy of Blake Griffin every now and again. That is, he may change some shots but he won't be an intimidating defender until he learns to flop and gouge.

No real game on offense outside of 5 feet, that high dribble attack won't prove useful all that often, but he'll be effective as a high energy Big with good defensive footwork and activity in the paint. Unlike many bigs coming into the league his relative agility should help adjust and keep him from being a foul magnet on D. Hopefully he won't cave when he attracts early whistles and begin to adjust himself out of significance-- refs respect floorburn type players who give 48 minutes of effort.

Defensively I don't know that he'll be all that much better than say Tristan Thompson, though I'm higher on Thompson than many. JoVa's got a real length over TX's TT -- though less innate strength, less defensive determination. (Stronger than he looks though, he's got that wiry strength that tends to stay healthy, unless he rolls an ankle bouncing in traffic). Both clearly love to mix it up and compete. Sight-read just suggests Tristan is likely to prove nastier, possibly intimidating.

Bottomline, could I see him anchoring a championship defense? As part of an effective platoon, sure. You'd still need a thug defender for muscle and enforcement. But once he learns to flop he might hassle Dwight Howard into foul trouble, and until then he'll help your team more than hurt it. At both ends.

For what it's worth, between him and Kanter I can see better Kanter's synergy with John Wall in particular. Kanter lacks the energy level of JVal and may have biomechanical health issues in his career, being wider heavier but not particularly mesomorphic and atheltic. But his skill set meshes well with Jimmy Wall. He's already got a few NBA-ready offensive skills in his toolkit. A bit of face-up game in the midrange, good low-post moves, willing to bump a bit to clear his own space underneath and provide a large target for the pass. Both roll well to the basket after the pick, JV being quicker and more aggressive there, better able to finish above the rim than the floorbound Kanter. Still, Kanter's improved range and offensive skill allows you to play him next to Booker or McGee, and gives room underneath for JWall to knife in.

Elsewhere, with a late pick, I like Oakland's Keith Benson as a skilled Big with low-post aptitude. He lacks the fight of a Tristan but has all the fundamentals, good length, decent hands. He won't require retraining and babysitting to get some work done in this league.

While we're talking late pick /mature game: I don't see him on the mocks but Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor is the 2nd coming of Derek Fisher. An instant pro, instant veteran. He'll see minutes for the team that picks him because a coach can trust him to execute with no mistakes. He'll measure long-armed so the height will be less of an issue. Maybe he'll stay for a senior year but I like the kid as a steal at back-up PG for whatever team takes him.

[willbcocks]

Please no to humphries (or, as Dat said, other middling FAs). Humphries is a bonehead and selfish, and the stats he's putting up on a bad team. Don't overpay that kind of guy.

Almost every team that signed a guy with the MLE last year is regretting it, especially those with young teams. Milwaukee literally went from exciting up-and-comer to old, tired, and capped out in one summer.

Keep up the BOYDing. Sign DeShawn Stevenson type veterans, guys who are maybe one rank below and not in demand, but who cost little and have short contracts.

[Kanyewest]

I think people cannot clearly identify the #1 prospect out there which is why people are calling it a weak draft. Kind of reminds me of the 2006 draft which everyone was calling weak. While certainly guys like Bargnani and Tyrus Thomas were duds for where there were picked, guys like Brandon Roy, before his knee injuries, and LaMarcus Aldridge would have been pretty good picks if they were picked #1 and #2. But at the time, each had their doubters for their games.

And there were sleepers out there; Rondo, Lowry, and Milsapp. Probably in the position where the Wizards will pick with the ATL pick, the Wizards have like a 10-15% chance of getting one of those guys.

I remember someone saying in this thread that the Wizards shouldn't continue to add picks. I disagree since adding more picks will allow the Wizards to complete bigger trades down the line for a superstar once they become more competitive. If the Wizards do not need a pick in the present year, they could always trade it for future picks. Plus it would allow the Wizards to play a little hard ball with its own free agents like Nick Young, and not be put in the position of overpaying their players.

[Ruzious]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SOU7J3_wZc&feature=player_embedded#at=443

Here is a video of Jonas Valanciunas against another highly touted 5-man.

The more I see of Valanciunas the more I like. He is not a high jumper but his arms are reaalllly long, and his quick feet are extremely rare for a player his size. From the moment the ball hits his hands or when he decides to go for a rebound/block, he gets off the floor. I think he'll become a more explosive leaper in time.
This off-season has a real strong chance of gettin dicey if the players feel their will be a lockout. Guys like Irving and Barnes could easily go back to school and a euro like Jonas then becomes much more valuable due to the shaloowing of the talent pool and his ability to stay overseas for a year.

The Polish guy he went against there was MUCH slower than anyone he'll face in the NBA. I think he does show a knack for going after the ball on the offensive boards, and his length makes up for his obvious lack of explosion there. In other videos, I've noticed his footwork on defense needs a lot of work - he's often a step behind on basic maneuvers. His length is not enough to make up for that problem. But he is just 18 and not a finished product physically and skill-wise, so you don't know what you're getting with him. It could be really good in a few years, or it could be really mediocre. I don't see Sideshow V in him. SV came in as a stronger more explosive athlete showing all kinds of energy at the defensive end. Valentine is more of a station to station kind of player.