Tank Deterrent: Team Stakes

[ElectricMayhem]

With no sure-fire future All-Stars and a potential lockout looming, we are in one of those rare years where you don't really see any outright tanking. Not a single Chris Quinn sighting in a starting lineup. So as ill-timed as this may be, I want to bring up my alternative to the current lottery system. As far as I know, this is an original idea, although it's certainly possible that it's been come up with before. I know ideas that are drastically different from the status quo are readily mocked, but after looking at this from all angles (I think), I definitely would prefer it to the current system. Let me know what you think.

The method:
Before the preseason starts, there will be a draft of team stakes. The team with the worst record last year gets the first choice, and the best team gets the last choice. Teams draft the stake of the team they think will do the worst in the upcoming year. A team cannot draft it's own stake. For example, last year, the Nets were last in the NBA. Before this current season started, they would've had first pick amongst team's draft stakes. Let's say they thought Toronto was going to be the worst team, so they take Toronto's draft stake. If the season ended today, Toronto would be in 4th last place, so the Nets would get the 4th pick.

Here's a mock of how teams would draft draft stakes before next season (The draft would be held just before the preseason so offseason moves could be taken into account):

Draft Stake Draft Order Draft Stake
1. Cleveland -> Toronto
2. Minnesota -> Cleveland
3. Washington -> Minnesota
4. Toronto -> Detroit
5. Sacramento -> Charlotte
6. New Jersey -> Washington
7. Detroit -> Utah
8. LA Clippers -> Sacramento
9. Milwaukee -> Golden State
10. Golden State -> Milwaukee
11. Charlotte -> New Jersey
12. Indiana -> Phoenix
13. Utah -> New York
14. Phoenix -> Indiana
15. New York -> LA Clippers
16. Houston -> Atlanta
17. Philadelphia -> Houston
18. Memphis -> Philadelphia
19. New Orleans -> Denver
20. Atlanta -> Memphis
21. Portland -> New Orleans
22. Denver -> Portland
23. Orlando -> Dallas
24. Oklahoma City -> Boston
25. Miami -> Orlando
26. Boston -> Oklahoma City
27. Dallas -> LA Lakers
28. LA Lakers -> Chicago
29. Chicago -> San Antonio
30. San Antonio -> Miami

Note: In this case, Chicago automatically had to pick San Antonio so SA couldn't pick itself.

Then, each team would get the draft position of the team stake they drafted.

Why this would mitigate tanking: Yes, Having a losing record does get you an advantage, but it's an advantage not for the upcoming year, but for the following year. Few teams will tank for a chance at a known superstar, but teams wouldn't tank for an unknown two drafts from now. It's too much risk for an unknown reward. As for the immediate impact on draft picks, the better a team does, the worse the pick for which ever team thought they would be lousy.

Pros:
*You get to see how GMs really view other teams.
*It would create rivalries between fan bases. Lots of anger from fans of teams whose stake gets drafted early.
*The draft stake draft would be fun to watch for the above two reasons. Give each team 2 minutes to decide on their pick. Fun way to kick off the season.
*Mitigates tanking.
*Because the process is out in the open, those who believe David Stern plays a hand in who gets what draft pick would be put at ease.
*Teams get to stick it those who underrate them.
*From the NBA's perspective, you get a fan base emotionally invested in the results of a 2nd team every year.

Cons:
*It's gimmicky. As gimmicky as a process similar to the Mega Millions jackpot? No. But still, it doesn't completely rectify this complaint of the lottery.
*No more Stern conspiracies, but GM to GM conspiracies (I'll give you a bargain on this player if you tank for us). Would one team be willing to tank for another? It makes it a bit more complex and such illicit deals could be investigated, but the potential is there.
*There is a one year gap from your team's record and when that translates to a pick.

Did I explain this well enough? Personally, I like the idea of winning games having a positive effect (dropping someone else's draft position). A team can't say "If we're the lousiest, we'll get John Wall." But they can say, "Even though we were bad, if we make a smart pick, we can set ourselves up for a solid future."

**EDIT: As brought up by John Doe, to make a system like this work, you would have to sacrifice the current system of trading for protected picks. To implement the system, we'd have to wait for all current protected pick trades to run their course while having a moratorium on any new protected pick trades. Then, with any new draft pick trades, the team holding the rights would get to make the draft stakes choice, unless the draft stake draft had already taken place, in which case the trading team would already know what they are getting.
What are your opinions?

[bruddahmanmatt]

This is whack. As if teams aren't already rolling the dice in the draft to begin with now you wanna have them roll the dice on OTHER TEAMS? What? So what happens if it was a rare down year for the Lakers but they managed to land a big name FA at the deadline who wanted to play in a big market and LA goes on a tear to finish the season? The team that picked them gets screwed? Or what if a team that's projected to be very good gets hammered by injuries and drops to the bottom giving a good team a high pick? Beyond that, you haven't even taken into account that the East is ridiculously top heavy with a s*** ton of scrub teams down low while the West is much more competitive all the way around making things harder for teams out West. Again I reiterate, this is whack.

[ElectricMayhem]

How does the East/West disparity need to be taken into account? I don't understand how that factors into this system any more than the current system.

What happens in the current system when a team that barely misses the playoffs lucks out and grabs a top 3 pick? It isn't intended to be worst team = absolutely has to have the 1st pick. If that's what was wanted, we would just scrap the lottery system and have an NFL style draft. The uncertainty of it is what mitigates tanking. Personally, I would find this way more entertaining.

Anyway, apologies my whackness intruded upon your day.

[BossHoggin]

terrible

[Beith Kogans]

Warned for a non-value post,

Gremz.

[imraged]

It's no worse than the lottery. It'd be entertaining if nothing else.

[John Doe [MIN]]

I love it. Absolutely love it.

One problem. Picks get traded. My Timberwolves have owed their first rounder to the Clippers for six years now, it being top 10 protected this year, and unprotected the next. Suppose the Wolves had looked at this year's draft class, decided it was nothing special, and opted to bite the bullet this year and stake a playoff team, thus giving away a 11+ pick and keeping their 2012 pick. Now suppose they decide to be dicks about it and stake the Lakers to really screw the Clippers over. We could take it to another level, what if the Wolves try to blackmail the Clippers with the threat of staking a contender, demanding that the top 10 protection be extended, that the Clippers' 1st round pick be traded to them for a TPE, whatever? It would be anarchy!!!

The natural solution would be that if a pick is owed, you could have the owed team pick the stake for the owing team. But that opens up more problems. Say there's a bottom five team that owes a lottery protected pick with declining protections that eventually expire. The owed team could intentionally stake teams at the back end of the lottery in order to keep the owing team from accumulating top talents as the protections decrease, so that several years down the line, that team is absolutely terrible and giving up the #2 overall pick because they've been held out of getting the top picks they deserve. There's also more obvious blackmail potential here, with the owed team threatening to stake middling teams unless the owed pick's protections are altered so it can be conveyed faster.

So good idea, other than that thing that makes it impossible.

[Banks2Pierce]

I really really like the ingenuity, but that's a huge obstacle that John Doe just posted. Some of these owned picks have conditions that extend out a decade.

I also like Simmons idea of a playoff for the pick. And I have to admit that I've just started following soccer in the past year and relegation battles would make 90% of the games interesting until the last week of the season. Not reasonable to implement within 20 years, though. Guys just paid half a bil for the Warriors...

[ElectricMayhem]

I love it. Absolutely love it.

One problem. Picks get traded. My Timberwolves have owed their first rounder to the Clippers for six years now, it being top 10 protected this year, and unprotected the next. Suppose the Wolves had looked at this year's draft class, decided it was nothing special, and opted to bite the bullet this year and stake a playoff team, thus giving away a 11+ pick and keeping their 2012 pick. Now suppose they decide to be dicks about it and stake the Lakers to really screw the Clippers over. We could take it to another level, what if the Wolves try to blackmail the Clippers with the threat of staking a contender, demanding that the top 10 protection be extended, that the Clippers' 1st round pick be traded to them for a TPE, whatever? It would be anarchy!!!

The natural solution would be that if a pick is owed, you could have the owed team pick the stake for the owing team. But that opens up more problems. Say there's a bottom five team that owes a lottery protected pick with declining protections that eventually expire. The owed team could intentionally stake teams at the back end of the lottery in order to keep the owing team from accumulating top talents as the protections decrease, so that several years down the line, that team is absolutely terrible and giving up the #2 overall pick because they've been held out of getting the top picks they deserve. There's also more obvious blackmail potential here, with the owed team threatening to stake middling teams unless the owed pick's protections are altered so it can be conveyed faster.

So good idea, other than that thing that makes it impossible.

That's a good point and something I hadn't considered. The only way to make it work would be to scrap the notion of protected picks. That means to implement this system, you'd have to wait until all current trades involving protected picks ran their course and forbid new ones in the mean time.

So to make this work, you would have to a)Sacrifice the protected pick, and b)As you mentioned, in any trades, it would have to be the team owed making the choice of draft stakes (Unless a team is trading for one that has already been staked, in which case they know what they are getting into.)

I'll attach an addendum onto the original post.

[GreenHat]

I actually like the idea but the they would never do it.

It would be embarrassing for the teams getting staked first as well.

Would love never having to hope for late season losses in down years though. It would be much better to be rooting against someone else.

[tidho]

Traded picks and the like wouldn't be a problem. Whoever owns the teams pick would just select a second stake and a team without a first wouldn't make a selection.

The problem this would create is that it has a stacking effect at the bottom. Lets say the Kings are the worst team in year 1 and they make Minny's stake the #1 pick following year 2. They draft the next Kevin Durant, but becuase they were still awefull themselves in year 2 they get a high stake selection and pick Minny's again. The next-KD has the Kings on the rise, but they still get #1 because Minny is bad again in year 3.
The very worst teams would be rewarded retroactively.

[wowski]

This is whack. As if teams aren't already rolling the dice in the draft to begin with now you wanna have them roll the dice on OTHER TEAMS? What? So what happens if it was a rare down year for the Lakers but they managed to land a big name FA at the deadline who wanted to play in a big market and LA goes on a tear to finish the season? The team that picked them gets screwed? Or what if a team that's projected to be very good gets hammered by injuries and drops to the bottom giving a good team a high pick? Beyond that, you haven't even taken into account that the East is ridiculously top heavy with a s*** ton of scrub teams down low while the West is much more competitive all the way around making things harder for teams out West. Again I reiterate, this is whack.

this.

dirk or dwight gets injured and you just helped another elite team to possibly get another solid if not star player in the draft.

[ropjhk]

Interesting idea. Those making fun of it don't have the mental capacity to understand that it's a unique and innovative way of approaching the problem. The idea itself though has problems.

How would the NBA transition to this new system? Does it really prevent tanking when there's still value to being the first to select a stake in another team? What about the controversy that will arise one day when a star player is injured on a dirty play in a game against the team that holds his teams stake?

Still, I like the fact that the OP is coming up with a new idea.

[illiance]

Just have the draft lottery only count the records up until the trade deadline. Then no team has a clear need to tank down the stretch. The standings look near identical from then to now and then you won't have bad teams messing up playoff positioning by basically throwing games. Also teams won't randomly shut down their players if there's no reason too. Nobody is gonna tank in February where a team could make a playoff run still.

[bruddahmanmatt]

Just have the draft lottery only count the records up until the trade deadline. Then no team has a clear need to tank down the stretch. The standings look near identical from then to now and then you won't have bad teams messing up playoff positioning by basically throwing games. Also teams won't randomly shut down their players if there's no reason too. Nobody is gonna tank in February where a team could make a playoff run still.

I dunno man. The Cavs were like 10-46 before the AS break. LOL.

[wilhelmthe1st]

I like it. Will never happen though.

[Azull]

2 things i think would help.

First, extend the picks that can be won from the 1st 3 to the 1st 5. This will move the #1 seed down to the 6th pick at worst from the 4th pick at worst while giving the teams with decent records more shots to get a higher pick.

Second, make it so a team can only have one of those 1st 5 picks 2 times in 3 years. If a team is the worst team in the NBA but had a top 5 pick the previous 2 years they would be locked in at 6. If the continue to suck they can have get another top 5...but if they STILL continue to suck they are locked out of the top 5 again.

Nothing will completly stop tanking however.

Just my opinion though.

[GreenHat]

This is whack. As if teams aren't already rolling the dice in the draft to begin with now you wanna have them roll the dice on OTHER TEAMS? What? So what happens if it was a rare down year for the Lakers but they managed to land a big name FA at the deadline who wanted to play in a big market and LA goes on a tear to finish the season? The team that picked them gets screwed? Or what if a team that's projected to be very good gets hammered by injuries and drops to the bottom giving a good team a high pick? Beyond that, you haven't even taken into account that the East is ridiculously top heavy with a s*** ton of scrub teams down low while the West is much more competitive all the way around making things harder for teams out West. Again I reiterate, this is whack.

this.

dirk or dwight gets injured and you just helped another elite team to possibly get another solid if not star player in the draft.

But right now if Dirk or Dwight get injured you just helped an elite team to possibly get another solid if not star player in the draft anyway. (Dallas, Orlando)

Put it this way, the best thing that happened to the Spurs franchise was Robinson getting hurt. There shouldn't be an incentive for your best player getting hurt.

At least in a system like this, Spurs fans would still be rooting for their team to win every game and then the next season they would get some crappy teams stake.

The years that we drafted beasley and wade there were at least 40 games each season that I was hoping that we would lose to get a better chance at Rose and Lebron. I would have rather been hoping that the raptors or clippers lose instead.

[Magic24]

So a team like the Cavs would be screwed this year since they had the best record last year, and the worst this year. That means that they would suck for 2 years?? What would cavs fans have to look forward to?

In this system Miami could have tanked last year, added Lebron and Bosh to Wade while ending up with a top 3 pick?

Sorry, tanking sucks, but one of the reasons the NBA is popular is because of movement of players and the bottom dwellers hoping on their future. It wouldn't be fair to the cavs to lose out on the best way to upgrade their team.

[Magic24]

This is whack. As if teams aren't already rolling the dice in the draft to begin with now you wanna have them roll the dice on OTHER TEAMS? What? So what happens if it was a rare down year for the Lakers but they managed to land a big name FA at the deadline who wanted to play in a big market and LA goes on a tear to finish the season? The team that picked them gets screwed? Or what if a team that's projected to be very good gets hammered by injuries and drops to the bottom giving a good team a high pick? Beyond that, you haven't even taken into account that the East is ridiculously top heavy with a s*** ton of scrub teams down low while the West is much more competitive all the way around making things harder for teams out West. Again I reiterate, this is whack.

this.

dirk or dwight gets injured and you just helped another elite team to possibly get another solid if not star player in the draft.

But right now if Dirk or Dwight get injured you just helped an elite team to possibly get another solid if not star player in the draft anyway. (Dallas, Orlando)

Put it this way, the best thing that happened to the Spurs franchise was Robinson getting hurt. There shouldn't be an incentive for your best player getting hurt.

At least in a system like this, Spurs fans would still be rooting for their team to win every game and then the next season they would get some crappy teams stake.

The years that we drafted beasley and wade there were at least 40 games each season that I was hoping that we would lose to get a better chance at Rose and Lebron. I would have rather been hoping that the raptors or clippers lose instead.

In both cases there is an incentive if your best player gets injured. You just get the benefit a year later.