Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread

[Dry_Fish]

Do you think Cam will be similar to a young Daunte Culpepper in the NFL?

[Icness]

Newton is like Lebron or Nadal in that he's a revolutionary presence that represents a new generation and new concept of the sport. IMO he's not quite as talented as those guys, but you get my point. That is going to be very hard for a whole lot of people to accept. I'm too old to really get it myself but I respect it for what it is and I don't fear it the way the Nawrockis and McShays of the world do. People of Newton's age and cultural upbringing eat that stuff up. Just like it took Lebron (Iverson and Kobe too) a few years to really get accepted and embraced by the rest of the NBA because they were different, I think that will happen to Newton too. The players will come around first, then the hard-to-please home fans, then the national media will "get it" and he's the biggest star in the NFL. Maybe

Very interesting. So you see the future of the NFL developing into more of a dual threat type of QB, rather than the traditional pocket passer? Or do you think it will be more of the Big Ben, Josh Freeman types who are big and create extra time in the pocket with their sheer size and athleticism.

I think having a QB that can throw with accuracy while on the move is going to be an increasingly valuable asset. And the bigger they are, the harder they are to get down. I also think the QB with foolish confidence (Big Ben, Cutler, Favre) will be more en vogue because it will take a guy who can make things happen to beat the defenses, which keep getting both bigger and faster (except LBs, which are getting lighter but faster). I'm just speculating but I think the NFL is going to be more willing to live with the QB that throws 35 TDs with 15 INTs than the guy that throws 25 TDs with 6 INTs. That's Newton to a T. Jake Locker could conceivably be that guy if he can learn to complete half his passes and get his TD/INT ratio even, that's why some people are still high on him. Look at Green Bay this year, Rodgers threw more INTs but it worked for them because he made more plays too. His TD per pass ratio went way up.

There will always be a place for pocket passers with great arms and excellent football smarts, a la Manning or Rivers or Brady. But you have to get those guys playmakers to use because unlike Big Ben or (maybe) Newton or Elway back in the 80s, they cannot beat you by themselves.

[Mike Hunt]

Mel Kiper said on the ESPN first draft podcast that he places the odds at 98% that both top QBs get selected in the top-5, though he barely has either of them in his top-10. What kind of odds would you give to the scenario (I hope I'm safe in assuming it'll be lower than that but just how low intrigues me?

Also, how many QBs can you see potentially going in the top-2 rounds and how many actually deserve to be there?

[Icness]

Mel Kiper said on the ESPN first draft podcast that he places the odds at 98% that both top QBs get selected in the top-5, though he barely has either of them in his top-10. What kind of odds would you give to the scenario (I hope I'm safe in assuming it'll be lower than that but just how low intrigues me?

Also, how many QBs can you see potentially going in the top-2 rounds and how many actually deserve to be there?

I agree with Mel that it's damn close to 100% that both are top 5 picks. Gabbert is 100%, Newton is 95% as a guesstimate. Techincally that makes 97.5% I suppose

I think Newton should be a top 10 pick, too much potential to not be. I see the merits of Gabbert but he's not in my personal top 10 overall.

Those two, Mallett, Locker, Dalton, Ponder and Kaepernick will all go in the first two rounds--most likely in that order. I'm very confident of that. Dalton could pass Locker and slide into the bottom of the 1st, but I just had a scenario (check the main page for the interactive draft) where Locker goes #10. Locker and Mallett are huge wild cards. They could go #8 and #10, just as easily they could go #35 and #49. And anyone who tells you they "know" right now is flat-out lying.

I think Mallett should be a 2nd, Kaepernick too. Locker should be a 3rd. Dalton late 3rd/mid 4th. If someone coudl assure me that Ponder can stay healthy I'd take him in the late 1st, but his arm scares the hell out of me.
The next tier (Stanzi, Enderle, Devlin, Yates, Adam Weber, Tyrod Taylor) are no better than 5th rounders that could sniff the later half of the 4th.

[TSE]

Actually that makes 95% to be the answer that both are selected in the top 5, as the formula for 2 events happening is simply the multiplication of each individual probability as opposed to the average of them. So, 100% x 95% = 95%

[Roger Murdock]

Any idea on if the Brown like Quinn? I hope not...

[Icness]

Any idea on if the Brown like Quinn? I hope not...

My pretty educated (on CLE) guesstimate is that the Browns are either taking AJ Green or Robert Quinn and will jump off the Terminal Tower (or BP or whatever the hell they renamed it, I haven't lived in Cleveland since 1998) if both are gone.

TSE--thanks for the stats lesson, I never took my time to think about it. Had the same issue in college stats classes too

[Icness]

4 quick hits from a Dir. of College Scouting I saw after Texas' pro day:

--nobody knows where Mallett and Locker are going. Both could go in the top 16, both could go in the 2nd round. Anyone who claims to know differently is full of feces.

--his team's draft board is about 75% complete. All positions are ordinated now with round grades for every conceivable player. Most teams are probably in the same state of affairs. Boards get finalized over the next couple of weeks.

--his team has no tight end higher than a 4th round grade (DJ Williams is their top). They have Kyle Rudolph red flagged for injury and Weslye Saunders is black flagged (i.e. not even a consideration) for his character.

--I'm overestimating the draft stock of Danny Watkins, Gabe Carimi, and Dontay Moch. I'm underestimating the draft stock of Andy Dalton, James Carpenter, and Muhammad Wilkerson. Watkins should be in the 28-35 range, Carimi 30-45, Moch in the 60-75 range. Dalton is 25 (that's a key number, hint-hint) to 40, Carpenter is 40-60, and Wilkerson could go top 25 and won't fall below #30. Or so he assumes...

[Roger Murdock]

I'm a huge fan of Wilkerson. I really hope he somehow fallls to the browns 2nd rounder. That news about Quinn is disappointing. I guess I'll have to trick myself into liking him as a prospect before the draft starts.

[Zabriskie]

Your take on Bowers' Pro Day?

[TSE]

Any idea on if the Brown like Quinn? I hope not...

My pretty educated (on CLE) guesstimate is that the Browns are either taking AJ Green or Robert Quinn and will jump off the Terminal Tower (or BP or whatever the hell they renamed it, I haven't lived in Cleveland since 1998) if both are gone.

TSE--thanks for the stats lesson, I never took my time to think about it. Had the same issue in college stats classes too

Sure, no prob, anything I can do to help. Although I think that the odds for each guy is just a tad bit high. I would expect it to be most likely that both go in the top 5, but I've seen stranger things. I am not comfortable with 100% on Gabbert, just cause I can rationalize how the Panthers would pass on a QB if they have confidence in Claussen, Denver obviously is likely to take a DL player, Buffalo has said they don't see QB as a top need and can't see a QB for sure going there, CIN might not want to risk having a QB drama problem just yet and I can see them hoping for a Rd 2 QB like Mallett or somebody to be there and not have to go "all-in" on a Carson Palmer potential replacement, and then that leaves Arizona at 5. So to have Gabbert at 100% implies that there is absolutely no chance that they would take Newton over Gabbert, as well as some other pretty interesting Defensive player choices. So I think that cuts into Gabbert's probability a slight bit, and for just one of those 2 QBs to not make the top 5 seems somewhat more practical that an almost certain thing. Basically, it boils down to those first 4 teams possibly seeing great value at getting Locker or Mallett or Dalton or Ponder or Kaepernick in Rd 2. Not a bad value to get one of those QBs while saving the big first pick for a top of the board Defensive player. You can't get the same Defensive value in Rd 2 as you can a QB in Rd 2.

[Mike Hunt]

^^^
I agree with that assessment (defensive player vs this year's QBs) but I think the big fear for those top-5 teams is that as you progress in the draft, more and more teams come into play as potentially picking QBs. When you get into the 20-30 range, you could easily see a couple of teams jumping over you into the back end of the first to grab the guy(s) you're looking for in the second.

While most mocks have that second tier grouped together, there are extremely different styles of quarterback expected to fall there (if I have a system that Mallett fits to a "T", I'm not drafting Dalton just because Mallett is gone), so it's not a case where a team can say: "We'll take whoever's left". Most teams probably only have 1 or 2 of those 5 or so 25-50 range quarterbacks high on their boards, so I would think it's actually pretty easy to get your guy(s) stolen out from under you. It's going to be a really tough decision for those top-5 teams to assess the likelihood that their primary QB target will drop to them in the second.

Here's a question/request for Jeff

Could you look at the top-5 teams in the draft and assess which of the top-2 quarterbacks would best address their needs. Which second-tier quarterback(s) they'd likely target in the second round and which of the top-7 or so QBs could never function in their systems?

I.e.,
Team X:
-They would pick Gabbert ahead of Newton
-If they couldn't get Gabbert, they'd likely want Kaepernick or to a lesser degree, Mallett in the second.
-They would never consider picking Dalton.

[TSE]

Yeah well every team in those top 5 though are going to have tons of needs, and there's going to be players at every position that they are going to want that will get picked from 20-32. Pretty much every one of those selections would be able to help all of those teams, so to see guys get taken out from under them is inevitable. But it's not nearly as possible to get a good pair of QB + DEF than it is to get a good pair of DEF + QB as I see it, so if you have to take a chance and hope to get lucky, I just think the odds are much better taking the DEF player first.

And we are talking about 5 QBs that are grouped and ranked pretty high and favorably after Gabbert and Newton, so those teams might want to consider liking more than 1 or 2 guys. If they only like 1 or 2 of the best players at each and every other position too, then they are going to have all kinds of draft disappointments. I haven't been impressed with Dalton and Ponder, so I would probably prefer Mallet, Locker, and Kaepernick, so I have 3 I might like, but nevertheless if those 3 get drafted at the end of the first round, I can then say well gee there's all kinds of experts that were raving about Dalton and Ponder, so just because I didn't scout them as high doesn't mean I can't feel somewhat comfortable with getting one of those guys and hoping for the best, after all at least I got my #1 DEF in all of college football on my board with my top 5 pick in exchange for settling on Dalton or Ponder, not to mention at least I also had a shot to get one of the other 3 I liked more.

Just because the shot didn't come to fruition to get one of those 3 doesn't mean I didn't have potential value at the time to hope to get lucky and see one of them drop. It could have happened for all I knew, and that was worth something at the time.

[Icness]

Your take on Bowers' Pro Day?

I think he proved he cannot play LB, which most everyone assumed already. He looked kind of out of shape, which makes sense considering he had knee surgery. If I were advising him I would have told him to not work out.

It seems like more people are probing a little deeper into his phenomenal one year. He didn't do much against Castonzo or Orlando Franklin of Miami or Lee Ziemba of Auburn, the only three future pros he faced all year. His sack against BC came on a stunt. Franklin shut him down completely; the sack he got in that game was the QB running straight into him. Almost all of his sacks came where it was obvious passing downs and he was isolated on the tackle with no help. I'm not saying he's not impressive, but NFL teams simply do not leave their tackles isolated on a terrific pass rusher very often.

It appears Peter King has (again) rode my bandwagon that Bowers is going to fall out of the top 10. If he wasn't from Ohio U. I'd really dislike that guy

[BearTooth]

Just registered. First post here...

Jeff, first of all, thanks for the conversations with the scout. Do you have more coming? That stuff is absolute GOLD.

Few questions:

1. I know a few pundits are high on Kaepernick. I am too. But what's your sense from actual scouts? Is there a buzz about him? Do they agree that he could be a high 2nd rounder? Also, if Gabbert, Newton and Locker are all projects to varying degrees, then why is Kaepernick so far below? Isn't their road to "pro-style, pocket passer" just as long as Kaepernick's? And considering his work ethic and intelligence, I'm surprised he's not more "in the conversation." Thoughts?

2. With all the 3-4 teams overvaluing the nose tackles, it seems like it's difficult for 4-3 teams to find any value at the nose position. With Taylor probably going in the first and Ellis perhaps even in the 2nd, is there any hope for a 4-3 team to find a nose tackle in the middle rounds? Who are your favorites among the middle round types...Powe, Ian Williams, etc. Any sleepers there?

[Bucksfans1and2]

4 quick hits from a Dir. of College Scouting I saw after Texas' pro day:

--nobody knows where Mallett and Locker are going. Both could go in the top 16, both could go in the 2nd round. Anyone who claims to know differently is full of feces.

--his team's draft board is about 75% complete. All positions are ordinated now with round grades for every conceivable player. Most teams are probably in the same state of affairs. Boards get finalized over the next couple of weeks.

--his team has no tight end higher than a 4th round grade (DJ Williams is their top). They have Kyle Rudolph red flagged for injury and Weslye Saunders is black flagged (i.e. not even a consideration) for his character.

--I'm overestimating the draft stock of Danny Watkins, Gabe Carimi, and Dontay Moch. I'm underestimating the draft stock of Andy Dalton, James Carpenter, and Muhammad Wilkerson. Watkins should be in the 28-35 range, Carimi 30-45, Moch in the 60-75 range. Dalton is 25 (that's a key number, hint-hint) to 40, Carpenter is 40-60, and Wilkerson could go top 25 and won't fall below #30. Or so he assumes...

If Carimi slips past the Packers I might have to kill someone.

[Icness]

^^^

Here's a question/request for Jeff

Could you look at the top-5 teams in the draft and assess which of the top-2 quarterbacks would best address their needs. Which second-tier quarterback(s) they'd likely target in the second round and which of the top-7 or so QBs could never function in their systems?

I.e.,
Team X:
-They would pick Gabbert ahead of Newton
-If they couldn't get Gabbert, they'd likely want Kaepernick or to a lesser degree, Mallett in the second.
-They would never consider picking Dalton.

I think I get your question. The way I see it, here are the first five teams that need QBs:
Carolina--hard to say what they’re going to do with a rookie head coach. Rob Chudzinski (new OC) worked magic with Philip Rivers last year and got Derek Anderson to a Pro Bowl. The QB that is most like those two is Ryan Mallett, but he isn’t going #1. This is where not having that #33 pick kills them, because IMO that’s the perfect spot for him. They have an in-house guy named Tony Pike (6th rounder from Cincinnati last year) that is similar to that profile. I really don’t think they’re going QB unless they take Gabbert #1 overall. I doubt they do. Just my opinion, but I think they’re going to get a stop-gap guy like Billy Volek or take a chance on a guy like Drew Stanton or Tarvaris Jackson.
Buffalo--Cam Newton is perfect for Chan Gailey. He’s had success with Quincy Carter and Tyler Thigpen, and Newton is basically a bigger/stronger/faster version of those guys. I think people underestimate Gabbert’s athleticism and he’d fit too, but Newton brings more of a pulse and I believe pretty strongly that if they’re going to yank Ryan Fitzpatrick it has to be for the drama of Newton. In the 2nd round, Jake Locker fits their profile nicely but he might not be there. Kapernick is more of a project than I think they’re willing to undertake right now but he’s of that style as well.
Cincinnati--Newton sure fits with the off-field drama. As far as the kind of offense they’re likely to run under Jay Gruden, I think Ponder is perfect at the top of the 2nd. Accuracy both short and long is paramount, which rules out Gabbert (his completion % deep is ugly) and Locker. I could see them having interest in Dalton but probably not at #35.
Arizona--Blaine Gabbert. Question answered. If they don’t go QB in the 1st, I think they wait a few rounds and go after a developmental project like Adam Weber or Tyrod Taylor that offers something different to John Skelton.
San Francisco--Gabbert over Newton. I don’t have a great feel for Harbaugh and how he wants to progress yet, but I know Trent Baalke is the kind of GM that wants to show he’s smarter than everyone else, which leads me to conclude Jake Locker is in play at #7, albeit unlikely. Dalton is a real bright guy with strong leadership and I think that will appeal to Harbaugh over Ponder or Kaepernick or Stanzi in the next tier.

[Icness]

Just registered. First post here...

Jeff, first of all, thanks for the conversations with the scout. Do you have more coming? That stuff is absolute GOLD.

Few questions:

1. I know a few pundits are high on Kaepernick. I am too. But what's your sense from actual scouts? Is there a buzz about him? Do they agree that he could be a high 2nd rounder? Also, if Gabbert, Newton and Locker are all projects to varying degrees, then why is Kaepernick so far below? Isn't their road to "pro-style, pocket passer" just as long as Kaepernick's? And considering his work ethic and intelligence, I'm surprised he's not more "in the conversation." Thoughts?

2. With all the 3-4 teams overvaluing the nose tackles, it seems like it's difficult for 4-3 teams to find any value at the nose position. With Taylor probably going in the first and Ellis perhaps even in the 2nd, is there any hope for a 4-3 team to find a nose tackle in the middle rounds? Who are your favorites among the middle round types...Powe, Ian Williams, etc. Any sleepers there?

Welcome, and thanks!
1. Scouts I've talked to are mixed on Kaepernick. What I've found is that people who know him better like him more than people that haven't spent much time with him. He's got this confidence to him that comes across better in person than on film and his football IQ shows better than it did in that college offense. I spent a few minutes with him at the Senior Bowl, and his dad for quite a bit one morning there, and they both talked about that, about how you really have to talk to Colin to see what he's all about more than just watching Nevada's offense. I think he's going in the first half of the 2nd round and I'm pretty confident in that.

It's harder to argue for him inside a war room than Locker or Ponder or Dalton or even Stanzi because of the "gimmick" offense, the unheralded program, and his very real issue of throwing the ball with little arc. He does have his strong supporters in certain places, I know that's legit.

2. 4-3 nose tackles, a dying breed indeed. I like Jarvis Jenkins from Clemson quite a bit and I think he can handle playing 1-technique. After Jenkins I'm not a real big fan of Powe or Jurell Casey or Chris Neild or Adrian Taylor or Ian Williams and that's your middle-round crop. Neild has the right mentality but his feet are God-awful slow and he's got short arms. I wouldn't touch Powe and that goes back to people I know at Hargrave Academy, where he went for a couple years before a desperate Ole Miss team touched him.

If someone can light the fire under Martin Parker of Richmond I think he'd be worthy in the 5th round, but he plays too passively to be a nose. I probably like Taylor the most of the others there. I like Anthony Gray from SoMiss but he's not even 6' tall and that's an issue. Going deeper a couple guys I like are Seaver Siliga from Utah and Cornell Banks from Fresno State, limited athletes but strong guys that can fill gaps. Going real deep (UDFA) I would love to see some team give Matangi Tonga from Houston a shot.

[BearTooth]

Welcome, and thanks!
1. Scouts I've talked to are mixed on Kaepernick. What I've found is that people who know him better like him more than people that haven't spent much time with him. He's got this confidence to him that comes across better in person than on film and his football IQ shows better than it did in that college offense. I spent a few minutes with him at the Senior Bowl, and his dad for quite a bit one morning there, and they both talked about that, about how you really have to talk to Colin to see what he's all about more than just watching Nevada's offense. I think he's going in the first half of the 2nd round and I'm pretty confident in that.

It's harder to argue for him inside a war room than Locker or Ponder or Dalton or even Stanzi because of the "gimmick" offense, the unheralded program, and his very real issue of throwing the ball with little arc. He does have his strong supporters in certain places, I know that's legit.

2. 4-3 nose tackles, a dying breed indeed. I like Jarvis Jenkins from Clemson quite a bit and I think he can handle playing 1-technique. After Jenkins I'm not a real big fan of Powe or Jurell Casey or Chris Neild or Adrian Taylor or Ian Williams and that's your middle-round crop. Neild has the right mentality but his feet are God-awful slow and he's got short arms. I wouldn't touch Powe and that goes back to people I know at Hargrave Academy, where he went for a couple years before a desperate Ole Miss team touched him.

If someone can light the fire under Martin Parker of Richmond I think he'd be worthy in the 5th round, but he plays too passively to be a nose. I probably like Taylor the most of the others there. I like Anthony Gray from SoMiss but he's not even 6' tall and that's an issue. Going deeper a couple guys I like are Seaver Siliga from Utah and Cornell Banks from Fresno State, limited athletes but strong guys that can fill gaps. Going real deep (UDFA) I would love to see some team give Matangi Tonga from Houston a shot.

Good stuff, thanks! I'll have to watch my Shrine game for more of Parker. Sounds like a good player for the middle rounds. Interesting about Powe.

Remember a couple years ago...the NFL was playing around with the Pistol a little bit. KC used it when their QBs went down and they had to go with Thigpen. I think Buffalo has used it a bit. Vikings' general manager, Rick Spielman, has said that they absolutely will not reach for a QB at #12, and if don't get one in the first round, they may be forced to "think outside the box" at the QB position. I'm wondering if that could mean drafting a guy like Kaepernick in the 2nd round and maybe even letting him play a little pistol. It's a system to help the running game as much as anything else. I have to think that Peterson and Harvin could really benefit from an offense like this. Crazy?

[Mike Hunt]

Really appreciate the opinions. It's hard not to get wrapped up in the QB info floating around. It seems more teams have issues at that position right now than I can ever remember (at least in recent years, that is)

Here's another question, if you don't mind: Do you expect there to be some "overdrafting" of TEs because of the weakness of the talent pool? This looks to be one of the weakest TE classes ever. I'm wondering: A) How would you rate this class of TEs (do you agree with the general assessment that it's quite weak?), B) Would it surprise you to see guys picked a round or two ahead of where you would project them based on the obvious supply and demand scenario that could play out (assuming your answer to #1 is some variant oof "yes"), and C) If so, which TE who was rated lower on your list would you not be surprised to see get picked earlier than he probably should be?

Thanks