Series Thread: Athletics @ Blue Jays | April 5 - 7

[Schad]

I think we were all worried when Frasor came in.

You should be worried; runner on third, one out is a situation that more often than not leads to a run. When you have a guy like Crisp at the plate, who is a pretty good contact hitter (averages around 1 K per 7.6 PAs), you should be doubly worried, because the odds are in their favour.

That Frasor came in and struck Crisp out should inspire confidence, because he made a good contact hitter look silly in a high-leverage situation, but got unlucky. Then again, we're the sort that will berate a pitcher for "choking" if he gives up a broken-bat infield hit, or a batter who crushes a line drive right at the third baseman, because we're terribly silly people.

It was probably JPA's fault, but Frasor doesn't inspire confidence. I didn't see the highlight, but isn't a wild pitch a wild pitch.

No, a wild pitch isn't a wild pitch. As a rule of thumb, just about any ball that hits the ground before the catcher will be charged as a wild pitch...it takes an epic **** by the catcher to earn a passed ball. That doesn't mean that the catcher shouldn't have knocked it down; similarly, a fly ball that gets past an outfielder after he loses it in the lights (which would be scored a double/triple) is his mistake, not the pitcher's, even if it doesn't appear as such on the scoresheet.

As an example, look at Romero's league-leading eighteen wild pitches last year (at one point he was on pace to destroy the modern-day record). Some of them were genuine wild pitches; more of them were balls in the dirt that John Buck, bless his poor form behind the plate, failed to control.

As for JPA, hopefully he can shake this off. Strike out wild pitch that loses the game?!?! ouch. Adam Lind is next.

He will. Again, that's baseball; every player in your lineup will make a big mistake (if not one that possibly costs a game) every week or less. The upshot is that he'll probably spend a bit more time learning to smother those pitches, and that's a good thing.

[J-Roc]

Okay I saw the highlight and JPA lifted up. However, have we heard a quote from someone on what the expected pitch was? JPA didn't seem ready for a sinker ball. Maybe Frasor was just off with his location.

And then Frasor gave up the game winning hit anyway.

Btw, tsn.ca has the highlights readily available. I hate the Sportsnet website.

[Schad]

Okay I saw the highlight and JPA lifted up. However, have we heard a quote from someone on what the expected pitch was? JPA didn't seem ready for a sinker ball. Maybe Frasor was just off with his location.

It was his split change, which is Frasor's out pitch most of the time. When you're throwing a splitter for a strikeout, by necessity you're looking to get it down, and a good portion of the time it's going to end up in the dirt. It's the catcher's job to block it if it is, because a pitcher who can't throw their best pitch in high-leverage situations for fear that it'll end up nestled against the backstop is kinda boned.

Recent example: Joe Nathan in the 9th of the loss against the Twins. Nathan went low with pitch after pitch, including the one that induced Lind's grounder, and did it with a runner on third. He was able to do so because Danny Butera is fantastic at smothering balls, and he kept at least two (from memory; might've been more) balls in the dirt in front of him. Take away that pitch and the inning is quite different.

It's also not just the fact that Arencibia pulled up...his form there was really bad (though not "crossed up" bad; just "reacted poorly" bad). Here's a still-frame from the moment that the ball hit the ground:



There are three things wrong there, which isn't a good sign, as there are really only three things you need to do:

-One, as you noted, he stayed up on his feet rather than getting to his knees.

Two, because he reacted late, he's still moving in front of the ball...and as a result, you can see that his upper body (the part that he should be using to smother the ball) is angled toward first base, as is his right leg. If the ball bounces up, it's likely going to ricochet in that direction, though it might stay close enough to keep the runner at third.

Finally, he's stabbing at it with his glove. Doing so is an all-or-nothing play, as if the ball doesn't end up in your glove (something you don't have a tonne of control over, as the ball won't bounce uniformly...not to mention that his glove might not be open enough to catch it) it can hit at just about any angle, and lead to just about anything.

And then Frasor gave up the game winning hit anyway.

In an inning that should have been over, on a sharply-hit grounder that narrowly evaded the third baseman. Nothing that can be described as "choking", except that we're reactionary.

[luvtheteam]

No question JP should have stayed down to try to smother the ball, but, bottom line is you can't come in with a man on 3rd and throw the ball in the dirt and blame the catcher for not stopping it. There just isn't any room for error if you throw it in the dirt. Frasor does this from time to time. This is another risk with him. The long ball and the dirt ball.

I just wouldn't have gone to him in a 1-0 game and especially not replacing your #1 starter. It's like playing russian roulette with 5 bullets in the barrel.

Velanueva was a better call in this situation. He is throwing exceptionally well and your worst case scenerio is the runner from 3rd scores, but you've got a tie game at home and hitting in the bottom of 8 and bottom of 9 to win it, as V can go 2 innings easy.

This was exactly the type of situation that Frasor will blow up in your face and that's what happened. I don't think anybody is surprised we lost the game.

Oh the bullpen woes.....my worries coming into the year are being realized. Frasor's already blown 2 games, and Rauch gave up the big bomb on the weekend that probably cost us that game........

We could be 6-0 but were lucky were not 3-3 thanks to Escobar.

[Randle McMurphy]

No question JP should have stayed down to try to smother the ball, but, bottom line is you can't come in with a man on 3rd and throw the ball in the dirt and blame the catcher for not stopping it. There just isn't any room for error if you throw it in the dirt. Frasor does this from time to time. This is another risk with him. The long ball and the dirt ball.

Frasor threw a perfect pitch in exactly the place that he (and Wakamatsu, the guy who called for the pitch) intended to throw it. That is exactly the time when you blame the catcher for not stopping it, especially because Arencibia took a terrible approach to a pitch that he knew was going to be low and in the dirt.

I would suggest reading Schad's post if you don't understand this.

Velanueva was a better call in this situation. He is throwing exceptionally well and your worst case scenerio is the runner from 3rd scores, but you've got a tie game at home and hitting in the bottom of 8 and bottom of 9 to win it, as V can go 2 innings easy.

Except Frasor is a better pitcher than Villanueva.

Oh the bullpen woes.....my worries coming into the year are being realized. Frasor's already blown 2 games, and Rauch gave up the big bomb on the weekend that probably cost us that game........

No. The bullpen has been fantastic this year in comparison to the rest of the league (3 ERs allowed in six games).

[luvtheteam]

RM...forget about it. I can't even respond to such nonsense.

[J-Roc]

Okay I saw the highlight and JPA lifted up. However, have we heard a quote from someone on what the expected pitch was? JPA didn't seem ready for a sinker ball. Maybe Frasor was just off with his location.

It was his split change, which is Frasor's out pitch most of the time. When you're throwing a splitter for a strikeout, by necessity you're looking to get it down, and a good portion of the time it's going to end up in the dirt. It's the catcher's job to block it if it is, because a pitcher who can't throw their best pitch in high-leverage situations for fear that it'll end up nestled against the backstop is kinda boned.

Recent example: Joe Nathan in the 9th of the loss against the Twins. Nathan went low with pitch after pitch, including the one that induced Lind's grounder, and did it with a runner on third. He was able to do so because Danny Butera is fantastic at smothering balls, and he kept at least two (from memory; might've been more) balls in the dirt in front of him. Take away that pitch and the inning is quite different.

It's also not just the fact that Arencibia pulled up...his form there was really bad (though not "crossed up" bad; just "reacted poorly" bad). Here's a still-frame from the moment that the ball hit the ground:



There are three things wrong there, which isn't a good sign, as there are really only three things you need to do:

-One, as you noted, he stayed up on his feet rather than getting to his knees.

Two, because he reacted late, he's still moving in front of the ball...and as a result, you can see that his upper body (the part that he should be using to smother the ball) is angled toward first base, as is his right leg. If the ball bounces up, it's likely going to ricochet in that direction, though it might stay close enough to keep the runner at third.

Finally, he's stabbing at it with his glove. Doing so is an all-or-nothing play, as if the ball doesn't end up in your glove (something you don't have a tonne of control over, as the ball won't bounce uniformly...not to mention that his glove might not be open enough to catch it) it can hit at just about any angle, and lead to just about anything.

And then Frasor gave up the game winning hit anyway.

In an inning that should have been over, on a sharply-hit grounder that narrowly evaded the third baseman. Nothing that can be described as "choking", except that we're reactionary.

I agree with everything you say, but something fundamentally wrong with this picture is JPA did not react like he expected a splitter. All the things you describe are how a catcher should react when a pitch is in the dirt which you didn't expect. In this case, (I don't know who's calling for pitches), if the plan is a strikeout splitter, JPA would react like it. He looked more fooled than the batter, with how his body is angled.

Who wants to tweet JPA to ask him whose fault it was. lol

[Schad]

No question JP should have stayed down to try to smother the ball, but, bottom line is you can't come in with a man on 3rd and throw the ball in the dirt and blame the catcher for not stopping it. There just isn't any room for error if you throw it in the dirt. Frasor does this from time to time. This is another risk with him. The long ball and the dirt ball.

Not only can you come in and throw the ball in the dirt...you have to. It's incredibly valuable to have a guy who can get swings-and-misses in big situations, and Frasor did exactly that; the catcher has to block that ball, period.

I mentioned Nathan, but there are quite a few relievers who rely on splitters or hard changes/dead spike curves as out pitches, and they all bounce some. Jonathan Papelbon. JJ Putz. Jose Valverde. Another guy who'll be in our 'pen, Frank Francisco. It's a different story if they lose one badly, but that was a really good pitch...Arencibia simply failed to block it.

I just wouldn't have gone to him in a 1-0 game and especially not replacing your #1 starter. It's like playing russian roulette with 5 bullets in the barrel.

Dumb.

Velanueva was a better call in this situation. He is throwing exceptionally well and your worst case scenerio is the runner from 3rd scores, but you've got a tie game at home and hitting in the bottom of 8 and bottom of 9 to win it, as V can go 2 innings easy.

Fun fact: Carlos Villanueva has recorded nine wild pitches over his previous two seasons and 148.2 IP (he also had an ERA over 5.00, for kicks). That's an average of a wild pitch every 16.5 innings. Frasor had seven wild pitches over 121.1 IP in the same time span. That's an average of a wild pitch every 17.3 innings...less than Villanueva. Your argument is bad and you should feel bad.

Oh the bullpen woes.....my worries coming into the year are being realized. Frasor's already blown 2 games, and Rauch gave up the big bomb on the weekend that probably cost us that game........

That's what happens with every bullpen; when you're dealing with close games, and you don't have six prime Mariano Riveras to call on, games will get blown or almost blown. It's a fact of life, which is why it's idiotic when people flip their **** over a run surrendered every once in a while.

We could be 6-0 but were lucky were not 3-3 thanks to Escobar.

Agreed, Escobar's HR was huge. However, again, there'll be little turning points in every game, for or against; there is a serious element of luck or bad fortune every time a team wins/loses by two runs or less. A ball gets through the infield, a strike is/isn't call, a great play is made, etc. That's baseball. Get used to it.

[Randle McMurphy]

RM...forget about it. I can't even respond to such nonsense.

Go out, learn something about the game of baseball, and then come back.

Then you'll actually be able to respond in a way that actually makes sense.

[Schad]

I agree with everything you say, but something fundamentally wrong with this picture is JPA did not react like he expected a splitter. All the things you describe are how a catcher should react when a pitch is in the dirt which you didn't expect. In this case, (I don't know who's calling for pitches), if the plan is a strikeout splitter, JPA would react like it. He looked more fooled than the batter, with how his body is angled.

Who wants to tweet JPA to ask him whose fault it was. lol

He didn't react as you should to a splitter, but neither did he react like a catcher crossed up by one. When a catcher is crossed up by a splitter/change when they were expecting a fastball, it's very easy to tell. They typically keep their glove east-west rather than turning it north-south, and will sloppily flail in the direction of the ball as if afraid they're going to have their kidney removed by the pitch (because it takes a moment for the brain to adjust to the fact that it's not the 92 MPH fastball at their body, but an 82 MPH spike heading for the ground).

Watch the play again: none of that happens. Arencibia's movement is smooth (as if he expected the pitch), but fundamentally poor. He just got really casual about making the play, and was ill-positioned by the time the ball reached him. He's a young catcher, and it happens, and you can be damned sure that Molina is going to be on him about it.

Ultimately, that will be a good thing; the best teaching method known to man is **** something up at a crucial moment, because unless you're a Caliper Warrior who is oblivious to everything around you, that will spur you to do the right thing the next time, and avoid a repeat performance. Don't get me wrong, I don't have the torch and pitchforks out for JP...I think that he could be an above-average receiver in addition to his bat. But this was his error.

[Geddy]

**** happens in baseball. You can't lose your hair over stuff like this because it happens to every team and the best of players.

[satyr9]

Schad's making all the points I would've plus quite a few extras that I'm incapable of. I do remember thinking that if Mauer had started that Twins game we probably would've won if Nathan had thrown the same pitches. And that's not taking anything away from Nathan or Mauer (well maybe a tiny bit from Mauer, but moreso to say Butera is fantastic back there).

It's certainly not Frasor's mistake. I don't have too much ire for JPA in this case either though. This is exactly the kind of price you're gonna pay starting a rookie C. Hopefully, it's not an often occurence, but there are lots of established C's, even some with pretty decent defensive reputations, who could blow a pitch like that on occasion, but you can't take it out of your pitcher's repertoire in risky situations because they need them to get you your big outs.

[luvtheteam]

Schazz...we'll just have to agree to disagree with this throwing the ball in the dirt strategy with a man on 3rd. I just wouldn't do it if in fact it was intentional. Lots of great 'ball smotherers' miss some and have to scramble back to the mesh to get the ball.

The bringing in of Frasor after your #1 is just hasn't worked out. I've just noticed this over the years. Can't really explain it, but it never feels good, and it rarely works out. Having said that, it's always tough coming in when the #1 comes out. It must be a huge sigh of relief for the hitters and they focus in and feast on the reliever that comes in for the starter that has baffled them all night.

I'm lovin' carlos right now, that's why i would have gone to him. He's probably looked the best out of all the bullpen arms, though Rzp is an outstanding addition.

And yes, i think we agree we cannot expect perfection from the bullpen. Of course they will let some games slip away. Overall they've done some good things as well. Looking forward to seeing what the 2 guys on the DL have when they get back.

Anyways, this was a disappointing finish to the series, but we are 4-2 and seeing a lot of good things.
Time to move on to Cali. Too bad we're into a west coast swing so quick here but at least it's the weekend!

Can't wait to see Drabek again tonight and see if he can carry on his great pitching from last outing.