Predict the Wizards record in 2010-2011

[JWizmentality]

sigh...I feel like I'm stuck in an abusive relationship.

Or just not very smart, Mr 47.

Back Satan! The power of Christ compels you!

[nate33]

This is a weird stretch of games in the schedule. We only played one game this entire week (Wednesday's win over Milwaukee).

We play back-to-back this weekend (vs.SAN and @CLE) plus a game next Wednesday (@ORL) and then we go into the All-Star Break. All told, we will end up playing just 4 games in a 17-day stretch. Hopefully, our banged up players will get an opportunity to heal a bit.

After the All-Star Break, the schedule lightens up a bit.

Tue, Feb 22 - vs Indiana
Wed, Feb 23 - @ Philadelphia
Fri, Feb 25 - @ Miami
Sat, Feb 26 - vs Dallas
Mon, Feb 28 - vs Chicago
Wed, Mar 2 - vs Golden State
Sat, Mar 5 - vs Minnesota
Sun, Mar 6 - @ Detroit
Tue, Mar 8 - vs Milwaukee
Sat, Mar 12 - vs LA Clippers

In the first 10 games after the break, only 1 game (@ Miami) is a sure loss. The rest are winnable. Realistically, we should be favored to win five of these games (the home games against IND, GSW, MIN, MIL, and LAC) and we have a shot in 4 other games (@PHI, vCHI, vDAL, @DET).

[cwb3]

So now that we have lulled the EC into a sense of false security, it's our time to strike!

[BigA]

Bumping this since we're coming to the end. Need three more wins for anyone to be correct.

[BigA]

Here are the OFFICIAL prognostications...

50 wins: Pancakes
49 wins:
48 wins:
47 wins: JWizmentality
46 wins: Plotintelli, nuposse04
45 wins: dobrojim
44 wins: hands11
43 wins: Wizards2Lottery, Shanghai Kid
42 wins: JonathanJoseph, GilArenas88, Joe_Wiz, Illuminaire
41 wins: WizStorm, Scabs304, 1974onWizFan, Tyrone Messby, AceDegenerate
40 wins: Ruzious, Pine, The Fax, Gil_Kills, sportsshooteral
39 wins: YiOF, Induveca, wizfan1984, miller31time, Rafael122, RT31
38 wins: DallasShalDune, CrankyTodd, MF23
37 wins: darealhibachi, zaRdsAndZeRos, CCJ, TheGreatWall, eitanr, montestewart, JAR69, bulletproof_32
36 wins: bgroban, jimij, wermolwermol777, Donkey McDonkerton, go'stags
35 wins: AnotherFinn, REDardWIZskin, Zonkerbl, Severn Hoos, lupin
34 wins: KevinFCheng, dangermouse, sfam, tikunit, KiNgSbOi, BigA, Verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan, AlohaWiz
33 wins: Hoopalotta, Floydfan29, wiz99, Nigel Tufnel, fishercob, Halcyon, LyricalRico
32 wins: Gesa2, dandridge10, closg00, greendale, nate33
31 wins: Consiglieri81, doclinkin
30 wins: Pollinator, Benjammin, MJG
29 wins: hermitkid, Dat2U
28 wins: willbcocks
27 wins: Nivek, no D in Hibachi
26 wins: fugop
25 wins:
24 wins:
23 wins: Visigoth

And from the "experts"...
32.5 wins: Vegas odds for over/under bets

30.0 wins: Basketball Prospectus, Bradford Doolittle uses a different statistical prognostication method, which he used to simulate the upcoming season 10,000 times. In his system, the Wizards finish 28th on average with 30.0 wins. Doolittle predicts the Wizards as having a 1.0% chance of finishing .500, a 4.8% chance of making the playoffs and no chance of making the Finals or winning the title. In his 10,000 simulations, the Wizards' high in wins was 45, their low was 8.

23.1 wins: Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus has updated season predictions based on his statistical projection system, which he calls SCHOENE. He plugs in the numbers and simulates the season 1,000 times. The average from those simulations says the Wizards will win 23.1 games and finish with the league's worst record. In those simulations, the Wizards and Clippers were the only teams to not make the playoffs even once.

13.3 wins: Wages of Wins system (via Arturo Galetti, here)

Jeff Sagarin has the Wizards at 27th in the league

With a loss tonight we'd have one winner. With a win, none. But Kevin Pelton had the Wizards pegged.

[closg00]

Still blown-away by the accuracy of Kevin Pelton's prediction. Btw, what happen to Visigoth?...troll name of another board-member perhaps?

[verbal8]

Still blown-away by the accuracy of Kevin Pelton's prediction

Did he predict records for the whole NBA? If so how do they look for other teams?

[closg00]

Still blown-away by the accuracy of Kevin Pelton's prediction

Did he predict records for the whole NBA? If so how do they look for other teams?

I poked around on the site but didn't see the original article, I'd like to see how he did with Philly, the Grizz and some others.

[Illuminaire]

Eh. His prediction was with Gilbert and Hinrich, without Lewis and Evans, and could not properly take into account Wall's impact on the team.

Getting within 5 games is fair. Accuracy beyond that is probably more to do with luck than skill.

[closg00]

Eh. His prediction was with Gilbert and Hinrich, without Lewis and Evans, and could not properly take into account Wall's impact on the team.

Getting within 5 games is fair. Accuracy beyond that is probably more to do with luck than skill.

Depends on how accurate he was in predicting the wins/losses of the other teams....if he did.&

[montestewart]

Still blown-away by the accuracy of Kevin Pelton's prediction

Did he predict records for the whole NBA? If so how do they look for other teams?

I poked around on the site but didn't see the original article, I'd like to see how he did with Philly, the Grizz and some others.

Click on the link above. It takes you to the predictions. Many of the others are pretty far off.

[Hoopalotta]

Yeah, 42 wins for Sacramento jumps out....
45 wins for the Lakers
30 wins for 'Sota
36 wins for Atlanta and Toronto

Looks like he mostly got lucky, but he did nail us. Yes he did. He really did.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here are the OFFICIAL prognostications...

50 wins: Pancakes
49 wins:
48 wins:
47 wins: JWizmentality
46 wins: Plotintelli, nuposse04
45 wins: dobrojim
44 wins: hands11
43 wins: Wizards2Lottery, Shanghai Kid
42 wins: JonathanJoseph, GilArenas88, Joe_Wiz, Illuminaire
41 wins: WizStorm, Scabs304, 1974onWizFan, Tyrone Messby, AceDegenerate
40 wins: Ruzious, Pine, The Fax, Gil_Kills, sportsshooteral
39 wins: YiOF, Induveca, wizfan1984, miller31time, Rafael122, RT31
38 wins: DallasShalDune, CrankyTodd, MF23
37 wins: darealhibachi, zaRdsAndZeRos, CCJ, TheGreatWall, eitanr, montestewart, JAR69, bulletproof_32
36 wins: bgroban, jimij, wermolwermol777, Donkey McDonkerton, go'stags
35 wins: AnotherFinn, REDardWIZskin, Zonkerbl, Severn Hoos, lupin
34 wins: KevinFCheng, dangermouse, sfam, tikunit, KiNgSbOi, BigA, Verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan, AlohaWiz
33 wins: Hoopalotta, Floydfan29, wiz99, Nigel Tufnel, fishercob, Halcyon, LyricalRico
32 wins: Gesa2, dandridge10, closg00, greendale, nate33
31 wins: Consiglieri81, doclinkin
30 wins: Pollinator, Benjammin, MJG
29 wins: hermitkid, Dat2U
28 wins: willbcocks
27 wins: Nivek, no D in Hibachi
26 wins: fugop
25 wins:
24 wins:
23 wins: Visigoth

And from the "experts"...
32.5 wins: Vegas odds for over/under bets

30.0 wins: Basketball Prospectus, Bradford Doolittle uses a different statistical prognostication method, which he used to simulate the upcoming season 10,000 times. In his system, the Wizards finish 28th on average with 30.0 wins. Doolittle predicts the Wizards as having a 1.0% chance of finishing .500, a 4.8% chance of making the playoffs and no chance of making the Finals or winning the title. In his 10,000 simulations, the Wizards' high in wins was 45, their low was 8.

23.1 wins: Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus has updated season predictions based on his statistical projection system, which he calls SCHOENE. He plugs in the numbers and simulates the season 1,000 times. The average from those simulations says the Wizards will win 23.1 games and finish with the league's worst record. In those simulations, the Wizards and Clippers were the only teams to not make the playoffs even once.

13.3 wins: Wages of Wins system (via Arturo Galetti, here)

Jeff Sagarin has the Wizards at 27th in the league

With a loss tonight we'd have one winner. With a win, none. But Kevin Pelton had the Wizards pegged.

I recall arguing how wrong I thought Kevin Pelton was.

[Nivek]

On average, Pelton's system missed by 7.7 games.

Big misses (+ = Pelton predicted that many more wins; - = Pelton predicted that many fewer wins):

- Cleveland -- +21.1 games
- Sacramento -- +18.7
- New Jersey -- +16.9
- Toronto -- +13.8
- Minnesota -- +12.8
- Boston -- -12.7
- Chicago -- -12.4
- Golden State -- +12.3
- San Antonio -- -12.0
- Lakers -- -11.8

I wonder how much the tanking effect contributed to the first 6 on the list. After that, it looks like his system missed on older teams (Boston, San Antonio, Lakers). Chicago seems like an easy miss because it would have been tough to estimate the difference a new coach would make, and the improvement in Rose. No idea why he'd miss by so much on Golden State. Just a weird team, maybe.

[JonathanJoseph]

Pelton is a smart guy but this is a prime example of statistics being misleading. It showed that Pelton "guessed correctly" but like I said before the season I think he was off by an order of magnitude.

Here are the things that happened leading up to a 23 win season:

[list=]Gilbert Arenas had perhaps the single biggest falloff season in NBA history
Then he was traded for a player who was minimally effective before getting hurt and missing much of the season
The Wizards were among the league leaders in injuries.....again
Despite the hype, John Wall had a historically low impact on wins[/list]

Pelton's calculations assumed none of those things. Had those things come out "on average" (i.e., a decent/average season from Arenas and/or his replacement, average injury toll, average "franchise rookie" impact), the Wizards would have won well more than 23 games and been in line with Pelton's average miss of 7.7 games if not more.

It's a fun and worthwhile exercise to estimate the number of wins going into a season based on expectations, but trying to predict something very unscientific using scientific methods will produce misleading results. This is an example.

[montestewart]

^
I agree with JonathanJoseph, and I think that, accuracy aside, my scientific prediction of 37 wins was more accurate than Pelton's wild guess of 23.1 wins. Besides, how can you win 1/10 of a game anyway?

[Nivek]

JJ -- Only quibble I have with your post is the word "misleading." There's nothing misleading about using stats in this way. Unforeseen events are a potentially confounding factor in any prediction.

[LyricalRico]

JJ -- Only quibble I have with your post is the word "misleading." There's nothing misleading about using stats in this way. Unforeseen events are a potentially confounding factor in any prediction.