The Countdown to Lawrie and Thames

[Schad]

With several of our regulars struggling, and Lawrie and Thames crushing AAA pitching in the early going, it's inevitable that we're going to start seeing calls for them to get promoted. As such, it's probably time for a refresher on everyone's favourite bit of CBA arcana: the Super Two designation.

A primer: a Super Two player is one who'll go to arbitration four times rather than the usual three prior to hitting free agency, and that status is bestowed upon the 17% of players in the 2-3 year 'service class' -- anyone who has been on a major league roster for more than the equivalent of two seasons, but less than three -- who have spent the most time in the bigs. The service time clock ticks only when the guy is on the major league roster; Travis Snider, as an example, has been in the bigs for parts of three seasons previous to this year, but racked up just 1.126 service years (which should land him short of Super Two status if he's in the bigs for all of 2011).

As for why it matters enough to keep a player in the minors past the point of on-field logic (something that hasn't really been reached with Lawrie and Thames, but was with the likes of Buster Posey), a Super Two player will end up earning something like 30% more over the course of their arbitration years than a guy with just three swings through the system. Moreover, getting to arbitration early can affect the calculus on whether to sign the sort of long-term deals that have been popping up...a player who will get to arbitration after two years and change has less incentive to sign a team-friendly deal, as they'll be earning rookie money for less time, and can expect to extract quite a bit more from arb. With a guy like Lawrie who could end up as a top-notch player, that's of real importance...we're probably going to want to tie him up within his first two seasons and buy out a free agent year or two.

So when can we expect them? Traditionally, the rule-of-thumb has been after May 20th; many teams wait until June 1st to be safe, while sometimes (as was the case this year) the cutoff date can actually allow players to be brought up a fair shade earlier without triggering Super Two status...something that unfortunately cannot be determined until some time down the road. And while Super Two status might disappear with the next CBA -- no one particularly likes it -- few teams are going to gamble that it will disappear.

Long story short, even if Lawrie/Thames keep killing it, Rivera/E5 keep scuffling and Nix returns to earth, in all likelihood we're still a month away from seeing either of them in a Jays uniform. So hold tight, and circle the final week of May on those calendars.

[Hoopstarr]

Yea, it's important to point out that the Super Two nonsense is moot if the team locks up the player within the first two years like the Rays have been doing. It's also moot if a team simply doesn't care about that extra ~30%. I think the Jays will be one of those teams. Everything that Alex has been about says that he wants to create the kind of environment that attracts outside players and rewards organizational players. If they need to overpay for a guy they feel is part of their core, they will. I think that might have happened with Romero and Jose's deals. So as prospects, the most important thing with Lawrie and Thames is their readiness. I think they'll come up when they're ready and that could be at any times.

[Schad]

I'd still expect us to wait 'til possible Super Two status has passed, though...if Lawrie's as good as advertised, we're going to want every bit of leverage we can get.

[Relentless88]

Is this the same for David Cooper?

[Schad]

Is this the same for David Cooper?

The same rules apply with Cooper, but there's a deeper issue with him: he has pretty well sucked over the past two years. Yeah, he hit 20 HRs last year, but a .769 OPS when repeating the level is pretty bad for a 1B. Unless he absolutely mashes, I'd be surprised if he saw the majors at all before September.

[SharoneWright]

Thanks for the primmer...

I'd just add to the idea that we ought to wait until their SuperTwo has passed, we also ought not expect these guys to be saviors. They're young guys who need playing time at the big league level during June July August Septemtber so we can further establish 2012, 2013, etc as our target years to win. As such, I have no problem with waiting on these 2. They're sure to get every chance to succeed with the big club.

Captain Obvious of me I know, but that's my specialty...

[luvtheteam]

Thanks for the primer. All 3 of these guys have issues so i don't see them being rushed:

Lawrie needs some time at 3B to work on his defense.

Thames doesn't really have a spot open for him. Sure they could throw him in as the DH, but he needs to play. Don't know if the super dynamic Bautista could play some center, have Travis slip around to RF and then put Thames in LF. Other option would be to move Bautista back to the infield, but that would just be short term anyways. Overall, not an easy fit for Thames.

Cooper needs to put up some solid numbers. He's off to a great start, so we may see him this summer if he keeps it up. Sometimes it just all of a sudden clicks for some guys, and maybe this will be the year for Cooper, though his AA year was not horrific.

Overall, no need to rush any of them, so the June 1 timeframe as the earliest would make some sense from a player development perspective as well if not some time thereafter.

[Geddy]

Interesting, and if that is the case then I can wait patiently before they get called up. Nix is playing decent enough for Lawrie not to be rushed in, and EE has started to make good contact with the ball. The only one worth replacing is Rivera who has less oomph in his swing than the women on the rec league softball team.

Considering they aren't supposed to be contending this year probably means it would be the right thing to wait.

[darth_federer]

http://www.fan590.com/ondemand/media.js ... 165336_756

AA said on Friday that he wasnt sure yet. I think that hes a month or more away. June 1st or so probably. But if the team really struggles he ll call him up. Atleast thats what I got from the interview.

[Fairview4Life]

Holding Lawrie back for 6 weeks to improve his fielding or something is an easy enough excuse to pass off.

[Lateral Quicks]

The only ways Thames gets promoted before September are:

1. He can play CF (don't think he can)
2. Snider continues to perform nowhere close to his potential (unlikely IMO)
3. He gets traded to another team.

They aren't going to bring him up to be the DH or 4th outfielder.

I think #3 is most likely, which is too bad because I like the player. I wouldn't be surprised if AA is fielding calls about Thames already. So the question is, what could we get for him?

[cp007]

I understand nothing is promised to EE. But what about snider? How long do we give him to get it together? End of June? His stats this season mirror those of last year. And if so with Davis and Patterson both playing well where do you guys see Thames fitting in?

[Lateral Quicks]

I understand nothing is promised to EE. But what about snider? How long do we give him to get it together? End of June? His stats this season mirror those of last year. And if so with Davis and Patterson both playing well where do you guys see Thames fitting in?

Snider, despite seemingly being around forever already, is only 23, and he mashed at every minor league stops. He also has had periods of mashing at the major league level. You don't give up on such a player very easily. I expect he'll come around well before June.

Let's not forget, despite his struggles, he's still leading this team in RBI from the 7th hole.

[cp007]

I understand nothing is promised to EE. But what about snider? How long do we give him to get it together? End of June? His stats this season mirror those of last year. And if so with Davis and Patterson both playing well where do you guys see Thames fitting in?

Snider, despite seemingly being around forever already, is only 23, and he mashed at every minor league stops. He also has had periods of mashing at the major league level. You don't give up on such a player very easily. I expect he'll come around well before June.

Let's not forget, despite his struggles, he's still leading this team in RBI from the 7th hole.

Quite true. I will be mighty happy when I see Rivera benched, traded or let go. I rather EE or Nix get the DH role rather than Rivera at this point. This year is about grooming your players anyways. I dont see Rivera fitting in to our future.

[kavan]

Remember guys, the roll is to win games. If you want to win you put the best 9 guys on the field you can. I think Rivera is a waste. I believe that Nix can fit the roll as a utility guy with McDonald, Lawrie can play 3B. For Thames I think him or Cooper can fight for that DH spot because I do not see Snider or Bautista leaving the OF. Snider played a bit of CF the other game I am sure he could too but Davis speed is a huge Asset I dont know if we can push him out of our line up. I guess since he is injured it would give us the flexibility but maybe Davis a good pinch runner?

Ideally who I am worried about right now is pushing Rivera out the line up getting Lawire into 3B so EE can DH and eventually get a guy who can hit and run, I dont think Davis legs alone can keep him in our line up. Especially if he is hurt.