Arenas Traded for Rashard Lewis

[leswizards]

Whoever resurrected this thread should be banned. Or at least put on timeout.

[Zonkerbl]

lice hater.

[nate33]

One of the reasons why this thread is fascinating is because very few seem to be able to come from a rational point of view.

I'd argue that you, Nate, are among the ones unable to use sound judgement. You said that Arenas has been the worst rotation player in the NBA "all season", when Arenas was a perfectly good 17/5 player THIS SEASON in Washington. You say that an injured Lewis is better than whatever Arenas is capable of putting up (when it's quite clear that Arenas could put up 22/7, 09-10 or 17/5, 10/11) so that's clearly not a rational analysis. As for the contract situation, we won't know how that shakes out until the CBA is addressed and we see how Arenas bounces back (or not).

First of all, 17/5 with a TS% of .505 and awful D is not "perfectly good". It's terrible. Perhaps not worst-in-the-league terrible, but terrible nevertheless. Secondly, when I say "all season", clearly I meant "over the entire season as a whole". You can take any player, isolate a small sample size where he plays decent, and then argue that he wasn't bad for the entire season. That's a stupid rebuttal. Over the season as a whole, Arenas has averaged 15 points, 5 assists (per 36), and a preposterously low TS% of .473. Nobody in the last two seasons has managed to shoot so much with a TS% so low.

[leswizards]

You say "most likely" but your most likely scenario is going against a 95%+ historical precedent. Perhaps Arenas is the exception, but you are talking about an exception and not the rule.

Regardless of the particulars, saying that a team is better off with a SG with 11 NBA starts shooting less than 40% FG than a multiple time, All-NBA player who's only 29 is more than a little far fetched at this point. You are comparing the best case Crawford to the worst case Arenas and calling it even.

There is no historical precedent of an NBA player missing multiple years due to a combination of several injuries, a refusal to rehab an injured knee in proper way, and suspension due to being a knuckle head. The "historical rule" which you seek to cite is a fiction in the case of Gilbert Arenas.

[nate33]

JJ, It seems to me that you fail to understand that Arenas isn't just recovering from an injury. He "recovered" from that injury 2 FULL SEASONS ago. This is not a guy trying to get himself back into shape. This is not someone trying to get regain his confidence in his knee. That should have happened by now. What we have in Arenas today is a guy who simply lacks the explosion he once had. He'll never be the player he once was.

That said, I don't think Arenas is this bad either. The loss of his once deadly jumper is inexplicable to me and I don't think that's permanent. What Arenas needs to do is adjust his role. He is no longer a primary star or even a secondary star. He's a role player. He needs to improve his catch-and-shoot game on offense and focus on spending more energy on defense. He needs to think in terms of being a rich man's Derrick Fisher, Eddie House, or Delonte West, not a poor man's Gilbert Arenas.

[Zonkerbl]

Totally splicable, Nate. He shot that jumper for ten years on a good knee. Now that knee has arthritis, it doesn't surprise me that his decades of muscle memory of shooting with a good knee are not helping now that the knee is a swollen throbbing mess.

[nate33]

Perhaps. But Arenas always had more of a set shot than a jumper. At any rate, it wasn't like he jumped 3 feet in the air on every shot. I think it's something he should have adjusted to by now - at least to some degree.

I can understand why he doesn't get to the rim as much. I could understand if he ended up with fewer shot attempts because he was unable to get separation quite as easily. But I'm really surprised at how much his outside shot has regressed.

[JonathanJoseph]

One of the reasons why this thread is fascinating is because very few seem to be able to come from a rational point of view.

I'd argue that you, Nate, are among the ones unable to use sound judgement. You said that Arenas has been the worst rotation player in the NBA "all season", when Arenas was a perfectly good 17/5 player THIS SEASON in Washington. You say that an injured Lewis is better than whatever Arenas is capable of putting up (when it's quite clear that Arenas could put up 22/7, 09-10 or 17/5, 10/11) so that's clearly not a rational analysis. As for the contract situation, we won't know how that shakes out until the CBA is addressed and we see how Arenas bounces back (or not).

First of all, 17/5 with a TS% of .505 and awful D is not "perfectly good". It's terrible. Perhaps not worst-in-the-league terrible, but terrible nevertheless. Secondly, when I say "all season", clearly I meant "over the entire season as a whole". You can take any player, isolate a small sample size where he plays decent, and then argue that he wasn't bad for the entire season. That's a stupid rebuttal. Over the season as a whole, Arenas has averaged 15 points, 5 assists (per 36), and a preposterously low TS% of .473. Nobody in the last two seasons has managed to shoot so much with a TS% so low.

Perhaps "perfectly fine" was not an apt description. Perhaps "passable"? And again, at no point in this discussion have I disagreed with the notion that Arenas has been different shades of terrible this season. Better with the Wizards, but still a huge falloff from his past.

But at the end of the day, you are asserting that Arenas' struggles are the product of a deteriorating knee and the problem is likely to get worse. I am asserting that Arenas' struggles are the product of mental issues, possibly depression, and his play is likely to get much better.

Both are valid perspectives and neither of us knows which is the case. No one here does. I've used historical precedent (how far have other players "fallen off" after injuries) to show that even the most injury prone players have not just become terrible players virtually overnight. That's being more than objective in thinking about this, but anyone implying that they know the answer with certainty are full of it.

[Nivek]

I have a couple theories about why Arenas isn't shooting as well.

a) It's the knee. More specifically, it's the combination of the knee and the layoff and so he's doing everything just a bit slower than he used to do it. So, he's not getting as open as he once did, defenders are able to close out on him and bother the shot, and defenders are able to play closer to him period because he's not as much of a threat to go by them with the dribble.

b) It's the brain. He's gone through some pretty significant emotional traumas the past few years -- from the mental struggle that comes with repeated trouble with his knee, to the sudden appearance and then death of the mother who abandoned him as a child, to the abrupt shift in public opinion that saw him go from hero to villain, to the self-inflicted gun-prank wounds, to the break-up with his fiancée and mother of his kids.

My guess is it's some combination of these. And probably some other stuff too. At some point, I figure the personal life/mental distractions will recede and we're likely to see his shooting improve (especially the 3pt shooting). I don't think we'll ever see Agent Zero again -- that guy who was one of the best offensive weapons in the game. I think he'll be useful again. This year, he's been awful, but I don't think that's what he'll be for the rest of his career.

[Zonkerbl]

Wow, when you summarize it like that ... dayum! Not a good past couple of years for Gil. That's got to have some effect.

[JonathanJoseph]

I have a couple theories about why Arenas isn't shooting as well.

a) It's the knee. More specifically, it's the combination of the knee and the layoff and so he's doing everything just a bit slower than he used to do it. So, he's not getting as open as he once did, defenders are able to close out on him and bother the shot, and defenders are able to play closer to him period because he's not as much of a threat to go by them with the dribble.

b) It's the brain. He's gone through some pretty significant emotional traumas the past few years -- from the mental struggle that comes with repeated trouble with his knee, to the sudden appearance and then death of the mother who abandoned him as a child, to the abrupt shift in public opinion that saw him go from hero to villain, to the self-inflicted gun-prank wounds, to the break-up with his fiancée and mother of his kids.

My guess is it's some combination of these. And probably some other stuff too. At some point, I figure the personal life/mental distractions will recede and we're likely to see his shooting improve (especially the 3pt shooting). I don't think we'll ever see Agent Zero again -- that guy who was one of the best offensive weapons in the game. I think he'll be useful again. This year, he's been awful, but I don't think that's what he'll be for the rest of his career.

I don't think anyone thinks Agent Zero is coming back, and that's coming from apparently one of the bigger Arenas-optimists here.

But I believe it's the mental stuff that is the difference between this Arenas and the 22/7 guy from last season. And in looking at this trade, it is not lost on me that Ernie Grunfeld probably contributed mightily to the mental issues when he threw Arenas under the bus as badly as anyone has ever been thrown under the bus.

[Nivek]

Yeah, it had to be a blow to Arenas for the team to distance itself from him so quickly and forcefully. Their handling of the gun prank was horrible (which I actually wrote about for True Hoop). There were several things they could have done to protect the team and Arenas while still letting him face some consequences for the stupid prank. And they would have come out of the crisis with an improved reputation, I think. But they screwed the pooch bad and everyone came out looking worse.

[TGW]

Arenas gets pwned:

Arenas May Lose Spot In Magic Rotation

Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy hasn’t made a decision on whether to use Gilbert Arenas as the team's backup point guard.

"I don't know what we're doing," Van Gundy said. "I haven't decided exactly what we're doing. I know Jameer's going to play a lot of minutes. I know we're going to use J.J. [Redick off the bench], I know we're going to use Q[uentin Richardson] and I know we're going to use Ryan [Anderson].

"As far as what we do at the backup point I'm not totally sure."

Arenas shot 1-for-3 in Game 2.

Read more: http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/21 ... z1KCTit05X

Wow...he's not even good enough as the backup point guard.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Stan Van Gundy IMO is doing a better job dealing with the reality of the situation about Gilbert IMO than Nate McMillan is about Brandon Roy.

Gil just became a Magic player. SVG didn't have to erase any memories of former greatness and he didn't have any existing loyalty to begin with as McMillan is having to do now. I hope Gil can get his mind/knee/shot mechanics down and that he can not turn it over for a sound stretch to where he can at least be a good backup. He's going to have to come off the bench ready and confident and under control.I hope for the best so he can at least contribute if given the opportunity.

However, Gilbert might not even get the chance because SVG clearly wants to go another way.

[cb1115]

For some reason I just can't give up on this guy.

He's been awful for us, and yet I still believe he can be an impact player again.

[Wizardspride]

Stan Van Gundy IMO is doing a better job dealing with the reality of the situation about Gilbert IMO than Nate McMillan is about Brandon Roy.

Gil just became a Magic player. SVG didn't have to erase any memories of former greatness and he didn't have any existing loyalty to begin with as McMillan is having to do now. I hope Gil can get his mind/knee/shot mechanics down and that he can not turn it over for a sound stretch to where he can at least be a good backup. He's going to have to come off the bench ready and confident and under control.I hope for the best so he can at least contribute if given the opportunity.

However, Gilbert might not even get the chance because SVG clearly wants to go another way.

Fwiw, SVG has never warmed to the ideal of having Gil on the team.

But that being said, unfortunately....I think Gil is basically done.

Gerald "freaking" Wallace.

[Cramer]

For some reason I just can't give up on this guy.

Nor do I want to. The guy, despite how things ended, brought us a hell of a lot of good times.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Stan Van Gundy IMO is doing a better job dealing with the reality of the situation about Gilbert IMO than Nate McMillan is about Brandon Roy.

Gil just became a Magic player. SVG didn't have to erase any memories of former greatness and he didn't have any existing loyalty to begin with as McMillan is having to do now. I hope Gil can get his mind/knee/shot mechanics down and that he can not turn it over for a sound stretch to where he can at least be a good backup. He's going to have to come off the bench ready and confident and under control.I hope for the best so he can at least contribute if given the opportunity.

However, Gilbert might not even get the chance because SVG clearly wants to go another way.

Fwiw, SVG has never warmed to the ideal of having Gil on the team.

But that being said, unfortunately....I think Gil is basically done.

Gerald "freaking" Wallace.

Brandon Roy tonight: 16 points on 6-10 shooting in 23:39. Portland wins game 3.

Methinks I'll shut up.

[fishercob]

What's become of Gilbert's playing career is just astounding and sad. I hope there's a happier ending than this.

[Wizards2Lottery]

He's been awful for us, and yet I still believe he can be an impact player again.

I think so too. Gilbert is not a quitter. He'll eventually make a comeback and probably not return to his old form, but be a good productive player. I still believe he's going to finish his career strong.