Nets 2011 LOTTO WATCH and draft thread

[babyjax13]

Jimmer does so many things well other than shoot, he's also a much better athlete than people give him credit for.

[StocktonShorts]

Jimmer does so many things well other than shoot

Care to name some?

[babyjax13]

Jimmer does so many things well other than shoot

Care to name some?

His change of direction with and without the ball, shiftiness, he's a lot faster than most of the opposing players he faces in college (whether or not this transfers remains to be seen) and he is a good finisher with his strength. He has the makings of a very good offensive player, how good remains to be seen. Is he a starter? Who knows. That's part of the intrigue. Is he a good bench guard a la Barbosa and Lou Williams? Maybe. Is he a flop? If he turns into Eddie House v2.0 where he is drafted he is, but I think he's got a lot more potential than that.

[carrottop12]

Donatas reminds me of jimmer, volume scorer, shooter, no defense.

The difference is one of them is 6'11 and will create mismatches with his athleticism, the other will be a constant mismatch in favor of the other team. Donatus will be gone by 12 though.

[StocktonShorts]

You posted while I was editing, so here's the rest of what I was going to say:



Based on his stats and on watching him play it doesn't look like he does much besides shoot. And even that he doesn't do at a rate to justify picking him so high despite his other shortcomings. His TS% of .596 (4-year average, Sr. year: .594) is good but not excellent. J.J. Redick, for example, had a TS% of .630 his Senior year and a 4-year average of .615. Kyle Korver had an insane 4-year TS% of .667, including .674 his senior year. .674!

So strictly off of college stats he's not as good of a shooter as Redick or Korver.

To me he seems kinda like a Steve Nash that doesn't have (or at least hasn't shown) incredible court-vision or play-making ability. I think Nash -- aside from this passing -- is a pretty crafty scorer, and I guess Jimmer could be that as well. I'm just concerned that he doesn't have the incredible vision that Nash does for finding guys and seeing the court. How's that for a backhanded compliment?

[babyjax13]

^^^^
At 12, that would be a product that I'd take if someone else clearly better isn't on the board.

[StocktonShorts]

^^^^
At 12, that would be a product that I'd take if someone else clearly better isn't on the board.

Hell, you might be right. He might be worth the gamble at 12 in a purportedly weak draft. I'm honestly trying to look at this as objectively as I can. Whatever I may have said before, I don't think he'll be a complete bust like Morrison -- where he can't even get on the floor. I think his worst-case might be someone like J.J. Barea or Eddie House. And his max upside (giving him every benefit of the doubt) is what? Steph Curry? Mike Bibby? I guess that's not horrible for 12 in a bad draft, but I wouldn't pick at 6.

[babyjax13]

^^^^
At 12, that would be a product that I'd take if someone else clearly better isn't on the board.

Hell, you might be right. He might be worth the gamble at 12 in a purportedly weak draft. I'm honestly trying to look at this as objectively as I can. Whatever I may have said before, I don't think he'll be a complete bust like Morrison -- where he can't even get on the floor. I think his worst-case might be someone like J.J. Barea or Eddie House. And his max upside (giving him every benefit of the doubt) is what? Steph Curry? Mike Bibby? I guess that's not horrible for 12 in a bad draft, but I wouldn't pick at 6.

My thoughts exactly. He's really hard to gauge, partly because of the fervor and accolades he has gotten, and partly because of the system that BYU runs. Once he gets drafted all of his work has to go into his defense. As far as court vision goes, who knows. BYU had no one for him to pass to, and even when he did, a lot of times they didn't convert. I'm not saying he's Nash (or Bibby), but I think he can run an offense to an acceptable level. I am really excited to see his pre draft measurements. If they're good I think he might be worth a flyer at that point, otherwise hope someone drops (if Burks is there though I want him drafted) or swing for the stars with Mirotic/Noguiera or be conservative and draft one of the small forwards like Jordan Hamilton or Chris Singleton. Klay Thompson may also be worth a look. There are lots of ways for the Jazz to go in this draft, and honestly outside of there being no clear cut number one prospect like Rose/Oden/Wall/Griffin this draft is just as deep as prior years.

[Jazzfan12]

I don't see it that way at all. Walker is worse prospect this year than Ed Davis was last year and Walker is going to go top 5 and potentially 3rd overall. There's like a total of five guys who have a pretty good shot at being starters in this draft and you're going to have to wait a long, long time for Valanciunas and Burks.

[babyjax13]

I don't see it that way at all. Walker is worse prospect this year than Ed Davis was last year and Walker is going to go top 5 and potentially 3rd overall. There's like a total of five guys who have a pretty good shot at being starters in this draft and you're going to have to wait a long, long time for Valanciunas and Burks.

I think Walker drops pretty dramatically if people really think he's going there right now. 8 to 14 is my expected range for him; if we drafted him at six I think I'd have to shoot myself (ok, not that far)...

For me, if I made a big board of the top 7 prospects of both drafts it would go like this:
Wall
Cousins
Favors
Irving
Turner
Kanter
Monroe
Williams
Valancianus
Vessely
George
Biyombo
Jones
Johnson

So, I guess that this draft isn't as deep at the very top (1-3), but last year's was damn good. The top 7 (at least) is very deep.

[J_Ray]

The Jazz need to take Jimmer if he is on the board at 12. As some of you know I've been doing a lot of research on him and I really feel like he is going to become a great player. I know a lot of you aren't the biggest fans of his but I'll tell you what...if he can play any sort of defense whatsoever even if it's just the slightest bit...I would consider taking him at the 6th spot if Brandon Knight and Kanter are off the board and rumors are floating around that he might go before the 12th spot. Call me crazy but he is going to be a great player in the NBA before it's all said and done.

The way I look at it is how valuable do you consider Stephen Curry? I bet most of us here wouldn't think twice about trading the 6th pick of this years draft away to land Curry. Fredette is going to be Stephen Curry if not better IMO so if he is there at 12th...I feel like that he would be a big time steal.

These comparisons between Stephen Curry and Jimmer Fredette need to stop. Stephen Curry was a star all 3 years in college and was a ballhawk on the defensive end. Just watching Curry in college, you could tell he was going to be good because he had phenomenal court vision and most of his turnovers were from him being a step ahead of his teammates in the game. Compare their college stats and Steph Curry put up much better numbers against a stronger non-conference schedule. Curry put up crazy numbers against college basketballs finest while Fredette was just a volume shooter against the good teams. Look at their shooting forms too, Fredette is going to have to change his shot compared to Curry's who had a much higher, quick release that was NBA ready.

Curry's college stats:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/c/curryst01.html

Fredette's college stats:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/f/fredeji01.html

I couldn't disagree with you more. Curry was anything but a star or a "ballhawk" throughout his college career and I'm glad you posted both of their stats because when you compare them to each other they are practically identical. There is hardly an equivalent to Fredette as far as college stats are concerned outside of Curry and vice versa. They are also very similar in body build with Curry being 6'-3", 180 pounds and Fredette being 6'-2" (or 6-3 depending on who you ask) and weighs 190 pounds.

Also if you recall before Curry was drafted, the media, scouts, NBA front office execs, etc. all said he couldn't do all the things they are saying Fredette can't do.

Are you looking at the same stats? Did you even see Curry in college? Steph Curry was a 21+ ppg guy as soon as he walked on campus. Look at the stats, Curry put up nearly double the steals of Fredette and put up better assists numbers while playing with much **** players than Fredette played with. His TS% were better than Fredette's through the years also. The whole time through college, Steph Curry was a season ahead of Fredette in production. Recheck those stats I posted, and take off those homer glasses. There's college guys that put up Fredette scoring numbers every year, most of them just don't get the hype of Fredette, so don't blame me if I didn't buy into the hype of him being the next Steph Curry. Guy is Luke Ridnour at best and if I wanted to take a shooting PG, I'd take a guy like Andrew Goudelock in the late 1st/early 2nd because he's probably a better shooter at this point and would be a better value pick.

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

I wonder how many more times people will pull out the "BYU homer" card to try and discredit my superior arguments and evidence

I understand that Curry has better stats in certain areas such as assists and steals but that's like me saying Fredette has better shooting percentages and a higher ppg average; it doesn't really matter when you look at the overall similarities. I'm asking you to find me another recent college player who has such similar statistical averages across the board as Curry does to Fredette; you just don't find one that's comparable. If you want to focus on the marginal amount of differences in assists and steals then you go right ahead and do that but it's clear that the two players are practically identical as far as overall college statistics (best seasons).

I also understand that Curry was scoring at a high level each year he played but if you look at Fredette's career numbers you will see that he progressed similarly to Curry in increasing his scoring. So lets go to Fredette's second and third years (his first real big time minute seasons)...what is Fredette's ppg average during those seasons? During his second year he averaged 16.1 ppg and during his third year he jumped up to averaging 22.1 ppg. Curry progressed very similarly in increasing his scoring averages by jumping from 21.5 to 25.9 in his first two seasons. While the totals are different the rate at which they progressed is undeniably similar and they both ended their college careers in the 28-29 ppg atmosphere. While Curry may have been "a year ahead" of Fredette in terms of progression, you have to understand that Fredette didn't get anywhere near the same amount of minutes as Curry did during his first couple seasons. He also wasn't given the sole responsibility of being the number one option until his third year while Curry was the number one guy from year one of his career.

Fredette had two of his best performances against SDSU who was one of the highest ranking teams in the nation throughout the year so I don't understand your argument of him being a volume shooter playing against "good teams".

As far as changing his shot...have you even watched Fredette play? I find that comment a bit....odd.

[Litany]

I wonder how many more times people will pull out the "BYU homer" card to try and discredit my superior arguments and evidence

I understand that Curry has better stats in certain areas such as assists and steals but that's like me saying Fredette has better shooting percentages and a higher ppg average; it doesn't really matter when you look at the overall similarities. I'm asking you to find me another recent college player who has such similar statistical averages across the board as Curry does to Fredette; you just don't find one that's comparable. If you want to focus on the marginal amount of differences in assists and steals then you go right ahead and do that but it's clear that the two players are practically identical as far as overall college statistics (best seasons).

I also understand that Curry was scoring at a high level each year he played but if you look at Fredette's career numbers you will see that he progressed similarly to Curry in increasing his scoring. So lets go to Fredette's second and third years (his first real big time minute seasons)...what is Fredette's ppg average during those seasons? During his second year he averaged 16.1 ppg and during his third year he jumped up to averaging 22.1 ppg. Curry progressed very similarly in increasing his scoring averages by jumping from 21.5 to 25.9 in his first two seasons. While the totals are different the rate at which they progressed is undeniably similar and they both ended their college careers in the 28-29 ppg atmosphere. While Curry may have been "a year ahead" of Fredette in terms of progression, you have to understand that Fredette didn't get anywhere near the same amount of minutes as Curry did during his first couple seasons. He also wasn't given the sole responsibility of being the number one option until his third year while Curry was the number one guy from year one of his career.

Fredette had two of his best performances against SDSU who was one of the highest ranking teams in the nation throughout the year so I don't understand your argument of him being a volume shooter playing against "good teams".

As far as changing his shot...have you even watched Fredette play? I find that comment a bit....odd.

Funny you criticize him for focusing on marginal differences, yet you did EXACTLY the same thing when I compared Jimmer to Jaycee. Yeah, real "superior" arguments. Pathetic.

I also had to laugh my HEAD off at how you said you want to compare overall college statistics and yet you whined about how I compared Jaycee and Jimmers overall college statistics.

Again, how transparent can you Jimmer-Homers be.

Jimmer and Jaycees stats are more comparable and their play-styles are comparable and you throw it out because it isn't a great NBA player that I compared him too.

Just so I am clear on what you are saying. The only players we can compare Jimmer to are players who have become successful NBA players? Got it.

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

I criticized you for looking at career stats with the Jaycee comparison because you looked at the averages of their careers. I stated previously and multiple times at that, that the only time you want to look at career stats is when you are looking at progression/improvement or the lack thereof. That is exactly what I'm doing here when looking at the PROGRESSION of Fredette and Curry's scoring.

When did I do the exact same thing in the Jaycee vs Fredette thread in regards to marginal differences? The only marginal differences I can think of that you're alluding to between Fredette and Jaycee are the shooting percentages which I went on to point out that while they are similar in %'s they are not accurate comparisons because Fredette took twice as many shots as Jaycee did.

You can try to compare Jimmer to whoever you want, you do your own thing. I'll stick with comparisons that are actually accurate I think it's....strange that you think Jaycee is such a good comparison...you're trying to compare the undisputed college basketball player of the year to someone who, like you've said many times, wasn't even drafted. Strange indeed.

Nice try though. Looking forward to your next attempt

[Litany]

I criticized you for looking at career stats with the Jaycee comparison because you looked at the averages of their careers. I stated previously and multiple times at that, that the only time you want to look at career stats is when you are looking at progression/improvement or the lack thereof. That is exactly what I'm doing here when looking at the PROGRESSION of Fredette and Curry's scoring.

When did I do the exact same thing in the Jaycee vs Fredette thread in regards to marginal differences? The only marginal differences I can think of that you're alluding to between Fredette and Jaycee are the shooting percentages which I went on to point out that while they are similar in %'s they are not accurate comparisons because Fredette took twice as many shots as Jaycee did.

You can try to compare Jimmer to whoever you want, you do your own thing. I'll stick with comparisons that are actually accurate I think it's....strange that you think Jaycee is such a good comparison...you're trying to compare the undisputed college basketball player of the year to someone who, like you've said many times, wasn't even drafted. Strange indeed.

Nice try though. Looking forward to your next attempt

No point. I already blew holes in your argument everywhere and you will just continue to ignore all of those things. You are just trolling now.

I will just see you in two months when the Jazz don't draft Jimmer and you are weeping.

[J_Ray]

I wonder how many more times people will pull out the "BYU homer" card to try and discredit my superior arguments and evidence

I understand that Curry has better stats in certain areas such as assists and steals but that's like me saying Fredette has better shooting percentages and a higher ppg average; it doesn't really matter when you look at the overall similarities. I'm asking you to find me another recent college player who has such similar statistical averages across the board as Curry does to Fredette; you just don't find one that's comparable. If you want to focus on the marginal amount of differences in assists and steals then you go right ahead and do that but it's clear that the two players are practically identical as far as overall college statistics (best seasons).

I also understand that Curry was scoring at a high level each year he played but if you look at Fredette's career numbers you will see that he progressed similarly to Curry in increasing his scoring. So lets go to Fredette's second and third years (his first real big time minute seasons)...what is Fredette's ppg average during those seasons? During his second year he averaged 16.1 ppg and during his third year he jumped up to averaging 22.1 ppg. Curry progressed very similarly in increasing his scoring averages by jumping from 21.5 to 25.9 in his first two seasons. While the totals are different the rate at which they progressed is undeniably similar and they both ended their college careers in the 28-29 ppg atmosphere. While Curry may have been "a year ahead" of Fredette in terms of progression, you have to understand that Fredette didn't get anywhere near the same amount of minutes as Curry did during his first couple seasons. He also wasn't given the sole responsibility of being the number one option until his third year while Curry was the number one guy from year one of his career.

Fredette had two of his best performances against SDSU who was one of the highest ranking teams in the nation throughout the year so I don't understand your argument of him being a volume shooter playing against "good teams".

As far as changing his shot...have you even watched Fredette play? I find that comment a bit....odd.

Superior arguments? Pull your head out of the clouds man. There's a reason Jimmer didn't play big minutes his first year or so at BYU because he wasn't good enough to crack the rotation apparently for bigger minutes. Also I have no clue what stats you're even looking at anymore because Fredette didn't shoot better and he scored 0.3 more points...Stephen Curry had 37 more steals than Fredette on the season and 30 more assists, those are stats that are much harder to get than less than a basket every 6 games (the scoring difference). Then to compare Curry's freshman and sophomore year to Fredette's sophomore and junior year, where Curry outperformed Fredette, and say they are similar because they both improved scoring wise each year...that's all the similarity there is in that. Fredette didn't play the same caliber teams Steph Curry played either. Fredette played San Diego State and Arizona during the regular season while Curry's team took on one Power conference teams after the other. Just name some NBA guard prospects Fredette faced outside of Florida's pair and this "Great" San Diego State backcourt that he actually only had 1 good game against.

Also, you clearly don't know much about how adapting to the NBA works. Most players that come into the league have to fix their shots and get higher releases. Look where Fredette's shooting pocket is, it's much lower than you want it to be and in the NBA he'll get more shots block because he won't be playing Wyoming Broncos or Utah Utes anymore.

Here's some players that had similar season to Curry and Fredette:
J.J. Redick:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/r/redicjj01.html
Reggie Williams:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/w/willire03.html
Lester Hudson:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/h/hudsole01.html
Keydren Clark:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/c/clarkke03.html
Trey Johnson:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/j/johnstr01.html
Aubrey Coleman:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/c/colemau01.html
Quincy Douby:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/d/doubyqu01.html
Salim Stoudamire:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/s/stoudsa01.html

My personal favorite: Morris Almond!
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/a/almonmo01.html

[qman]

I wonder how many more times people will pull out the "BYU homer" card to try and discredit my superior arguments and evidence

I understand that Curry has better stats in certain areas such as assists and steals but that's like me saying Fredette has better shooting percentages and a higher ppg average; it doesn't really matter when you look at the overall similarities. I'm asking you to find me another recent college player who has such similar statistical averages across the board as Curry does to Fredette; you just don't find one that's comparable. If you want to focus on the marginal amount of differences in assists and steals then you go right ahead and do that but it's clear that the two players are practically identical as far as overall college statistics (best seasons).

I also understand that Curry was scoring at a high level each year he played but if you look at Fredette's career numbers you will see that he progressed similarly to Curry in increasing his scoring. So lets go to Fredette's second and third years (his first real big time minute seasons)...what is Fredette's ppg average during those seasons? During his second year he averaged 16.1 ppg and during his third year he jumped up to averaging 22.1 ppg. Curry progressed very similarly in increasing his scoring averages by jumping from 21.5 to 25.9 in his first two seasons. While the totals are different the rate at which they progressed is undeniably similar and they both ended their college careers in the 28-29 ppg atmosphere. While Curry may have been "a year ahead" of Fredette in terms of progression, you have to understand that Fredette didn't get anywhere near the same amount of minutes as Curry did during his first couple seasons. He also wasn't given the sole responsibility of being the number one option until his third year while Curry was the number one guy from year one of his career.

Fredette had two of his best performances against SDSU who was one of the highest ranking teams in the nation throughout the year so I don't understand your argument of him being a volume shooter playing against "good teams".

As far as changing his shot...have you even watched Fredette play? I find that comment a bit....odd.

Superior arguments? Pull your head out of the clouds man. There's a reason Jimmer didn't play big minutes his first year or so at BYU because he wasn't good enough to crack the rotation apparently for bigger minutes. Also I have no clue what stats you're even looking at anymore because Fredette didn't shoot better and he scored 0.3 more points...Stephen Curry had 37 more steals than Fredette on the season and 30 more assists, those are stats that are much harder to get than less than a basket every 6 games (the scoring difference). Then to compare Curry's freshman and sophomore year to Fredette's sophomore and junior year, where Curry outperformed Fredette, and say they are similar because they both improved scoring wise each year...that's all the similarity there is in that. Fredette didn't play the same caliber teams Steph Curry played either. Fredette played San Diego State and Arizona during the regular season while Curry's team took on one Power conference teams after the other. Just name some NBA guard prospects Fredette faced outside of Florida's pair and this "Great" San Diego State backcourt that he actually only had 1 good game against.

Also, you clearly don't know much about how adapting to the NBA works. Most players that come into the league have to fix their shots and get higher releases. Look where Fredette's shooting pocket is, it's much lower than you want it to be and in the NBA he'll get more shots block because he won't be playing Wyoming Broncos or Utah Utes anymore.

Here's some players that had similar season to Curry and Fredette:
J.J. Redick:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/r/redicjj01.html
Reggie Williams:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/w/willire03.html
Lester Hudson:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/h/hudsole01.html
Keydren Clark:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/c/clarkke03.html
Trey Johnson:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/j/johnstr01.html
Aubrey Coleman:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/c/colemau01.html
Quincy Douby:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/d/doubyqu01.html
Salim Stoudamire:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/s/stoudsa01.html

My personal favorite: Morris Almond!
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/a/almonmo01.html

I think you are in general correct with your similar seasons things. But Jimmer's shot has a high release and it is a pure jumpshot. He will have to adjust his moves to the basket but his jumper won't have to change at all.

[eLo]

Donatas reminds me of jimmer, volume scorer, shooter, no defense.

The difference is one of them is 6'11 and will create mismatches with his athleticism, the other will be a constant mismatch in favor of the other team. Donatus will be gone by 12 though.

well yea cuz we gonna pick him as 6

Again, how transparent can you Jimmer-Homers be.

well more than you Jimmer-hater

[Jazzfan12]

Donatas reminds me of jimmer, volume scorer, shooter, no defense.

The difference is one of them is 6'11 and will create mismatches with his athleticism, the other will be a constant mismatch in favor of the other team. Donatus will be gone by 12 though.

Donatas is actually 7'2 and doesn't really shoot that many jumpers.

[DelaneyRudd]

I really want the lotto to come so I can argue who I want from a more concrete look on things.