Jazz will pass on Jimmer, thankfully. Jaycee vs Jimmer

[Litany]

Bottom line, if the Jazz draft Jimmer, I will support them just as much then as I do now.

im only intrigue what you gonna do when it appears that picking Jimmer wasnt such a bad idea. Plus one more thing stop calling everyone that disagree with you on that subject "Jimmers fanboys" i now its easier for you to do so but it's not true, you dont have to love Jimmer to now that Jazz need shooter and that he is best Jazz can get.

So far, almost all the people vehemently defending him have been BYU alum or current BYU students. So I think the label fits fine.

I am also confused why you quoted me as saying that I would support them either way, and then asked what I would do if he doesn't turn out to be a bad idea. I think the question was already answered in the quote, don't you?

As far as your claim that we need as shooter, as I have said in other posts, I don't care if he can drop a few shots here and there if he can't defend his man on the other end. What good is he to us then? This isn't football. He has to play both ways. We can't just sub him in to take a shot then sub him out afterwards. If I were the opposing team I would just go at him every possession.

BYU fans have hung their hat on the claim that he wasn't asked to play defense in that system. The only way we can find out if that is the truth is to see him workout which is why I am looking forward to the NJ workout coming up. I think they are going to have 5 on 5 drills so we should see what kind of defender he is out of the BYU system. I don't know what else to look at.

What I have seen is he has poor lateral movement, he seems disinterested in defense altogether, doesn't even get into a defensive stance, and when he does get beat he doesn't even try to make up for it. Maybe it was the system, but the only way to know is to see him play outside of it I guess.

Like I said before, I will support the Jazz either way. I don't see the Jazz picking him, but if they do, hopefully it works out.

[babyjax13]

Bottom line, if the Jazz draft Jimmer, I will support them just as much then as I do now.

im only intrigue what you gonna do when it appears that picking Jimmer wasnt such a bad idea. Plus one more thing stop calling everyone that disagree with you on that subject "Jimmers fanboys" i now its easier for you to do so but it's not true, you dont have to love Jimmer to now that Jazz need shooter and that he is best Jazz can get.

So far, almost all the people vehemently defending him have been BYU alum or current BYU students. So I think the label fits fine.

I am also confused why you quoted me as saying that I would support them either way, and then asked what I would do if he doesn't turn out to be a bad idea. I think the question was already answered in the quote, don't you?

As far as your claim that we need as shooter, as I have said in other posts, I don't care if he can drop a few shots here and there if he can't defend his man on the other end. What good is he to us then? This isn't football. He has to play both ways. We can't just sub him in to take a shot then sub him out afterwards. If I were the opposing team I would just go at him every possession.

BYU fans have hung their hat on the claim that he wasn't asked to play defense in that system. The only way we can find out if that is the truth is to see him workout which is why I am looking forward to the NJ workout coming up. I think they are going to have 5 on 5 drills so we should see what kind of defender he is out of the BYU system. I don't know what else to look at.

What I have seen is he has poor lateral movement, he seems disinterested in defense altogether, doesn't even get into a defensive stance, and when he does get beat he doesn't even try to make up for it. Maybe it was the system, but the only way to know is to see him play outside of it I guess.

Like I said before, I will support the Jazz either way. I don't see the Jazz picking him, but if they do, hopefully it works out.

So far I haven't seen anyone that has said they are a BYU alum or student. I haven't been a "vehement" defender of Jimmer, but I think you are selling him completely short.

[Litany]

So far I haven't seen anyone that has said they are a BYU alum or student. I haven't been a "vehement" defender of Jimmer, but I think you are selling him completely short.

I am including people that I talk to on other forums and at my office. Hammerdunk is a BYU alum for example. I am willing to bet that others defending him on this board are BYU alum, but I have no way of knowing that unless they admit it like Hammerdunk.

Maybe I am selling him short ( I don't think I am, I think he will be a career bench player). Time will tell.

[HammerDunk]

So far I haven't seen anyone that has said they are a BYU alum or student. I haven't been a "vehement" defender of Jimmer, but I think you are selling him completely short.

I am including people that I talk to on other forums and at my office. Hammerdunk is a BYU alum for example. I am willing to bet that others defending him on this board are BYU alum, but I have no way of knowing that unless they admit it like Hammerdunk.

Maybe I am selling him short ( I don't think I am, I think he will be a career bench player). Time will tell.

12th picks ARE career bench players. Almost ALL of them.

[Gothapotamus]

"As far as your claim that we need as shooter, as I have said in other posts, I don't care if he can drop a few shots here and there if he can't defend his man on the other end. What good is he to us then? This isn't football. He has to play both ways. We can't just sub him in to take a shot then sub him out afterwards. If I were the opposing team I would just go at him every possession."

I think it was posted in here that BYU coaches INSTRUCTED Jimmer not to defend. That was their game plan and they executed it. Saying that he "can't" defend is hard to validate when he was told NOT to. If that is the case, most are unclear on if he can defend. But your assumptions about his being disinterested or really any of your ceaseless ramblings about his defense seem to disregard that he was told not to. BYU game planned on him being the man for them, which is a role he filled well.

Whether or not, he can or can't defend he is projected at a much higher draft position than your precious Jaycee Carrol. And he will more than likely have a much more successful professional basketball career than Jaycee.

[Litany]

82games has info about this. Review of the picks from 1989-2008 draft picks yields the following results:

Basically the 1-5 pick has a 60% chance of becoming an all-star caliber player.

The 6-10 pick drops off but you still have about a 30% chance of getting an all-star player and more than 50% chance of getting a starter caliber player.

The 11-14 pick takes another dip in percentage, but pick 13 has produced an all-star caliber player 20% of the time and the 14th has produced an all-star caliber player 25% of the time.

The point isn't what the percentage was at #12, the point is what was available at that point.

You could also look at players that have become starters in the 10-20 pick range. For example from the 2008 draft; Brook Lopez (10) Anthony Randolph (14) Roy Hibbert (17) Javale Mcgee (18) J.J. Hickson (19) are all starters now.

So I think you are wrong when you say that you can't expect to get a starter out of that spot. I am not saying you should expect an all-star, but a starter is definitely reasonable to expect.

To me, it looks like picks 15-30 are where you can expect a role player/bench player, with late 1st round and 2nd round being the deep bench.

If the Jazz draft Jimmer and he does well I will gladly eat crow. As I said before, time will tell. Looking forward to the NJ workout and the off-season.

[Litany]

"As far as your claim that we need as shooter, as I have said in other posts, I don't care if he can drop a few shots here and there if he can't defend his man on the other end. What good is he to us then? This isn't football. He has to play both ways. We can't just sub him in to take a shot then sub him out afterwards. If I were the opposing team I would just go at him every possession."

I think it was posted in here that BYU coaches INSTRUCTED Jimmer not to defend. That was their game plan and they executed it. Saying that he "can't" defend is hard to validate when he was told NOT to. If that is the case, most are unclear on if he can defend. But your assumptions about his being disinterested or really any of your ceaseless ramblings about his defense seem to disregard that he was told not to. BYU game planned on him being the man for them, which is a role he filled well.

Whether or not, he can or can't defend he is projected at a much higher draft position than your precious Jaycee Carrol. And he will more than likely have a much more successful professional basketball career than Jaycee.

Nice job ignoring this part that I wrote in that same post:

BYU fans have hung their hat on the claim that he wasn't asked to play defense in that system. The only way we can find out if that is the truth is to see him workout which is why I am looking forward to the NJ workout coming up. I think they are going to have 5 on 5 drills so we should see what kind of defender he is out of the BYU system. I don't know what else to look at.

You are clearly just here to troll, but I will respond to the Jaycee part.

I already said in posts before that he is probably better than Jaycee and that I think he will be a career bench player in the NBA at best (which is better than Jaycee who is in Spain playing ball). I just think drafting him at 12 is too high and he isn't right for the Jazz which is why I think they will pass.

[Jazzfan12]

11-20 range:


2007 draft: One starting level player (Thad Young, he comes off the bench)
2006 draft: Zero
2005 draft: One starting level player (Granger)
2004: Four (Five if you count Humphries, six if you count him and Smith)
2003: One
2002: Zero
2001: Three
2000: Three


So you get a 20% chance of getting a starter in the mid first round.

[Litany]

11-20 range:


2007 draft: One starting level player (Thad Young, he comes off the bench)
2006 draft: Zero
2005 draft: One starting level player (Granger)
2004: Four (Five if you count Humphries, six if you count him and Smith)
2003: One
2002: Zero
2001: Three
2000: Three


So you get a 20% chance of getting a starter in the mid first round.

So you are going to ignore the part of the post that talks about the 20 and 25% chance at an all-star for the 13th and 14th picks, nicely done.

My point is you dont draft with the EXPECTATION that they will become career bench players. You think that those teams that drafted from 1-5 over the years drafted with the expectation that they were going to have only a role player? No. they hope to get a star.

Doesn't always happen, everyone knows that, I am talking about what you should expect at those spots. You need some luck. But if you are pretty much completely sure they will be nothing more than a bench player, I wouldn't draft them in the lottery. I would get someone like Terrence Jones or Kawhi Leonard, who have plenty of upside, fill the position/need we have, and have potential to become something more than a bench player.

Terrence Jones is a Freshman and Leonard is a Sophomore. Jimmer made his progress form his Soph to Junior and Junior to Senior seasons. Where would those players be after four years in college? I don't know, but the fact that they are where they are already, means they can get to a great level.

I just think they have more upside and fill the SF position we need.

[soapblaster]

Speaking of not responding to arguments:
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=1099589&start=15

You owe me a response to strength of schedule differences.

Still waiting...

[nyjazz]

Of course the Jazz must pick Jimmer with the 12th, unless the 12th is otherwise used in a trade. You can't pass on a home grown star player that is the poster boy to the majority of the community in your local market, if he is available at a reasonable level.

Sure, taking Jimmer with the 6th would be way too high and unexpected and therefore the Jazz will upset nobody when they don't use the 6th pick on him. But passing on him if he is still on the board with the 12th pick, even if it is considered too high and no other team would use their 12th on him, the Jazz, given Jimmer is the poster boy, simply have to swallow hard and bring him back home with the 12th.

And who knows, maybe Jimmer can transform his game to the NBA level, after all nobody expected Nash to become anything near what he became. If the Jazz let him slip pass the 12th, and Jimmer turns into a decent NBA contributor, the FO will hear about it for a very long time.

Picking Jimmer with the 12th is a cheap nod to the local community, it avoids any chance of criticism, other than being picked a bit too high he would be a decent pickup, and it is exactly what the Jazz should and will do.

[Jazzfan Bayamon]

Of course the Jazz must pick Jimmer with the 12th, unless the 12th is otherwise used in a trade. You can't pass on a home grown star player that is the poster boy to the majority of the community in your local market, if he is available at a reasonable level.

Sure, taking Jimmer with the 6th would be way too high and unexpected and therefore the Jazz will upset nobody when they don't use the 6th pick on him. But passing on him if he is still on the board with the 12th pick, even if it is considered too high and no other team would use their 12th on him, the Jazz, given Jimmer is the poster boy, simply have to swallow hard and bring him back home with the 12th.

And who knows, maybe Jimmer can transform his game to the NBA level, after all nobody expected Nash to become anything near what he became. If the Jazz let him slip pass the 12th, and Jimmer turns into a decent NBA contributor, the FO will hear about it for a very long time.

Picking Jimmer with the 12th is a cheap nod to the local community, it avoids any chance of criticism, other than being picked a bit too high he would be a decent pickup, and it is exactly what the Jazz should and will do.

And his biggest strength is something that we REALLY need (outside shooting). Having him to backup Devin would be ideal IMO. BTW, weren't guys here all up in bunches wanting JJ Reddick in the same draft pick range?? What's the difference there??

[sendai91]

Of course the Jazz must pick Jimmer with the 12th, unless the 12th is otherwise used in a trade. You can't pass on a home grown star player that is the poster boy to the majority of the community in your local market, if he is available at a reasonable level.

Sure, taking Jimmer with the 6th would be way too high and unexpected and therefore the Jazz will upset nobody when they don't use the 6th pick on him. But passing on him if he is still on the board with the 12th pick, even if it is considered too high and no other team would use their 12th on him, the Jazz, given Jimmer is the poster boy, simply have to swallow hard and bring him back home with the 12th.

And who knows, maybe Jimmer can transform his game to the NBA level, after all nobody expected Nash to become anything near what he became. If the Jazz let him slip pass the 12th, and Jimmer turns into a decent NBA contributor, the FO will hear about it for a very long time.

Picking Jimmer with the 12th is a cheap nod to the local community, it avoids any chance of criticism, other than being picked a bit too high he would be a decent pickup, and it is exactly what the Jazz should and will do.

I couldn't agree any more with those post. Well done. For those that really think the Jazz would anger any significant section (more than say 2-3%) of their existing fanbase by picking Jimmer @ 12, that's just delusional. I see no season ticket holders deciding to forego renewing because the Jazz took a flyer on a local kid that's sure to be a marketing boon at least for the first couple of years. If the STH's could sustain the team during the 2002-2005 years with no local draw, they'll survive selecting Jimmer. Consider it this way - I would guess that 80%+ or more of the Jazz STH's and general ticket customers for that matter live north of American Fork.

After the tumultuous year they just had, if the Jazz could appeal to a wider / broader customer base (replacing very, very few existing customers, and definitely filling the arena more consistently) by using a 12 pick in a very weak draft, with no other strong SG candidate on the board (please don't say Alec Burks - the Jazz don't need another athletic wing player with an iffy outside shot - see AK, Brewer, CJ and practically every other wing player besides Korver since Hornacek) they'd be crazy not to make that pick. You're talking about probable increased (season) ticket sales in the range of 1.1-5 million, and increased jersey / concessions revenue @ probably $1.5-$2 million. There aren't a lot of #12 picks that more than pay for their own salary with an uptick in fan interest. In addition to all of the marketing angles, Jimmer just happens to have the one skill the Jazz lack in spades. Even if he has the impact of say a Eddie House ( 700ish career games, 17 minutes a game, 39% 3 pt fg) which I think is fairly reasonable, it's a very safe and smart pick @ #12.

FYI - not a BYU homer, USU graduate.

[Toothless]

I am a BYU homer, and wouldn't mind Jimmer at #12 depending on what our #6 (or higher) pick is. If we go Brandon Knight or other guard with our first pick, then I'm not so sure we should draft another guard. I love Jimmer, but I've commented on many occasions that Jerry Sloan would kick his butt for taking the types of shots he does early in the shot clock. Not sure if Corbin will be much different in philosophy, but Jimmer may not be the best fit for the Jazz system (or he might need to change - he definitely had the green light at BYU).

One thing I am willing to concede is that the workouts and the Jazz talent scouts will probably get a pretty good handle on what the team needs by draft night and hopefully make an informed decision that goes beyond my and most other fans expertise.

With the pick last year, I was saying I hoped they would pick anyone except Gordon Hayward. Now at the time we didnt' have Big Al and really needed size, so maybe there will be some other moves this year that will help decide who makes sense to pick on draft night. It will be interesting if nothing else. I've been pleased with Hayward as a pick in hindsight.

[hoops4life]

I am a U of U grad and graduate school student. I have never attended BYU.

I think that Jimmer is and will be better than Jayce. I don't think that he will be an all-star. I would rather the Jazz didn't pick him. I think he will stick in the league for quite some time.

[jazzfan1971]

I dont' remember folks wanting JJ Reddick. IN fact, when he went before the Jazz picked I actually let out a little cheer.

He's turned himself into a nice backup SG. Good for him. But, I didn't wnat him.

[eLo]

Of course the Jazz must pick Jimmer with the 12th, unless the 12th is otherwise used in a trade. You can't pass on a home grown star player that is the poster boy to the majority of the community in your local market, if he is available at a reasonable level.

Sure, taking Jimmer with the 6th would be way too high and unexpected and therefore the Jazz will upset nobody when they don't use the 6th pick on him. But passing on him if he is still on the board with the 12th pick, even if it is considered too high and no other team would use their 12th on him, the Jazz, given Jimmer is the poster boy, simply have to swallow hard and bring him back home with the 12th.

And who knows, maybe Jimmer can transform his game to the NBA level, after all nobody expected Nash to become anything near what he became. If the Jazz let him slip pass the 12th, and Jimmer turns into a decent NBA contributor, the FO will hear about it for a very long time.

Picking Jimmer with the 12th is a cheap nod to the local community, it avoids any chance of criticism, other than being picked a bit too high he would be a decent pickup, and it is exactly what the Jazz should and will do.

And his biggest strength is something that we REALLY need (outside shooting). Having him to backup Devin would be ideal IMO. BTW, weren't guys here all up in bunches wanting JJ Reddick in the same draft pick range?? What's the difference there??

Yessss we will pick him cuz all of that, cuz we need shooter cuz he is local kid that probably every on likes ( more or less but still), and so on, and im saying everyone with some nba knowledge would pick him with that #12 if there would be a big chance that he will transfer, at least, into next JJ especially in Jazz situation.

I think it was posted in here that BYU coaches INSTRUCTED Jimmer not to defend. That was their game plan and they executed it. Saying that he "can't" defend is hard to validate when he was told NOT to.

defense always and i mean always starts from coaches description, ok Freddete may not be good defender but i dont see him not defending in NBA, guy is smart he got passion to the game, i dont think after few years peps gonna say that his got Booz attitude