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Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL?

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Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#1 » by LittleOzzy » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:00 am

Among the most talked about story lines heading into the 2011 season, few generated as much interest as Jose Bautista‘s attempt to follow up on his monstrous season from last year. The universal consensus was that he would take a step backward, as it was a given he wouldn’t hit 54 home runs again, but the question was just how far back would he go? Perhaps it’s time to change the question.

Bautista’s ridiculous start to the season – he’s now hitting .359/.506/.750, good for a Major League best .533 wOBA after making just two outs over the course of the three games against the Rays this weekend – has effectively ended any legitimate speculation about whether Bautista’s season was an enormous outlier. He is still doing all of the things that made him so good last year, only now he’s proving that he can do it while hardly seeing any pitches in the strike zone, and his patience has upped his walk rate to elite levels as well.

So, instead of asking just how far Bautista will regress, perhaps the more relevant question now is whether or not Bautista is currently the best hitter in the American League. It’s a question that would have seemed ludicrous 12 months ago, but what Bautista has done since – and done consistently – while adjusting to a changing approach from opposing pitchers has made this a legitimate query.

Perhaps the best place to start when answering questions of this nature are the updated ZIPS projections we have here on the site, courtesy of Dan Szymborski. Not surprisingly, the consistent excellence of Albert Pujols still has him on top, though Joey Votto is making a hard charge at the title for best hitter in the National League. After those two, however, there are three AL hitters whose projected lines for the rest of the season are all pretty similar:


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -in-the-al
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#2 » by OldNo7 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:04 am

I would still put Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano ahead of him, as far as complete hitters, but Bautista isn't all that far off with what he is showing right now. He is probably in the aged-ARod/Josh Hamilton range right now.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#3 » by baulderdash77 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:09 am

Well right now he's leading the AL in Batting Average, Runs, Home Runs, Walks, OBP, OPS (obviously). He's not getting hardly any strikes thrown at him and he's not chasing pitches.

So at the moment he's definitely the best hitter, without question in my mind.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#4 » by Evermore » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:46 am

Bautista lead the AL in walks last season (I think) ...

That's not talked about nearly enough


EDIT: he was 2nd to Daric Barton
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#5 » by Avenger » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:50 am

I'd say it comes down to him vs Cabrera, everyone else is probably a distant third
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#6 » by Evermore » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:56 am

Avenger wrote:I'd say it comes down to him vs Cabrera, everyone else is probably a distant third


Not sure you could get away with that kinda talk on the Rangers forum...
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#7 » by Randle McMurphy » Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:10 am

He's been better than every hitter in the AL over the last 8 months of baseball, so yeah, he is.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#8 » by Evermore » Wed Apr 27, 2011 5:18 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:He's been better than every hitter in the AL over the last 8 months of baseball, so yeah, he is.


Last season Josh Hamilton lead the AL in AVG, SLG% and OPS...

.359 / .633 / 1.044


I think if we were Rangers fans we'd be using those stats to support our claim that Hamilton is the best...
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#9 » by Randle McMurphy » Wed Apr 27, 2011 6:21 am

#1. Hamilton isn't even playing right now.
#2. Hamilton has a career walk rate of 8.4% (7.5% last year), he's like a left-handed Ryan Braun (with way better defense, of course). Not good enough to be called the best hitter in any league.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#10 » by raptorforlife88 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 7:05 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:#1. Hamilton isn't even playing right now.
#2. Hamilton has a career walk rate of 8.4% (7.5% last year), he's like a left-handed Ryan Braun (with way better defense, of course). Not good enough to be called the best hitter in any league.


The ability to draw walks is of course important, but there are certain rare players who can get away with it because their swing is that great.

Vladimir Guerrero was one, and Hamilton's put up that sort of season twice now. And considering he put up the leading OPS and slugging numbers he's certainly up there for the best hitter in the league considering he was one of the three best last year.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#11 » by Raider917 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:36 am

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/ ... e-bautista

"Anyway, back to my bold statement: After going 1-for-3 with a double and two more walks in Toronto’s 10-3 victory over Texas on Tuesday, Bautista has an insane .362/.522/.783 (BA/OBP/SLG) line, including an MLB-leading eight home runs. If that seems Barry Bonds-esque, it’s because it is. Bautista has 23 walks in 20 games, something I’ll call the fear factor ratio. When pitchers are afraid to pitch to you, they walk you. Only seven hitters have played 100 games and had more walks than games played -- including Bonds five times (others are Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, Mickey Mantle, Jack Clark and Eddie Joost). "
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#12 » by Michael Bradley » Wed Apr 27, 2011 12:42 pm

If he isn't, then he is in the top 2 or 3.

What Bautista is doing does resemble Barry Bonds. Insanely high walk and home run totals. He is obviously not going to hit for this much average the whole year, but his walks and HR's will more than make up for it.

Man, it seems like 2010 was just a tip of the iceberg. Get this man some help in the lineup and we'll be OK.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#13 » by J.Kim » Wed Apr 27, 2011 12:46 pm

Yup. We're watching an almost Bonds-ian like performance from Jose Bautista. The change that he's undertaken, not just from his days in Pittsburgh to his days in Toronto but, during his time in Toronto is just absolutely incredible.

As for the "Best Hitter in AL" tag. I'd say not yet with the caveat that we could very well likely see him surpass Cabrera sometime this season. Especially considering the power advantage that Bautista has over Cabrera.

Edit: On another note, I got bored and started reading the comments on that ESPN article. Curiously, my head started to hurt.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#14 » by evilRyu » Wed Apr 27, 2011 2:02 pm

the dude is totally locked in.. last year people were saying his BA was keeping him away from MVP talks. This is just amazing, Last year was his highest BA at .260, and he's currently 100 points higher.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#15 » by J.Kim » Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:01 pm

evilRyu wrote:the dude is totally locked in.. last year people were saying his BA was keeping him away from MVP talks. This is just amazing, Last year was his highest BA at .260, and he's currently 100 points higher.


Well, his current BA is unsustainable. His BABIP is currently at .378 which is ridiculous for an extreme flyball hitter like Jose Bautista. While I also doubt that he has a .233 BABIP like last year resulting in a .260 BA. I wouldn't be surprised if he settles somewhere in between in around the .280-.300 range for his BA.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#16 » by victor page » Wed Apr 27, 2011 5:55 pm

The way some of you guys apply the concept of BABIP is nonsense - it's only useful when you're looking at several hundred at bats (and even then I wouldn't go nuts over it). Are you watching the actual games? Are you saying Bautista is hitting a lot of bloop fly balls that happen to fall between outfielders?

He's hitting lasers to left and left centre - if he continues to do that, his BA will stay right where it is. Naturally, it's unlikely he can keep raking at this level for an entire season at finish at .360 .

But if / when his average does level off, it will be because he's getting less wood on the ball, not because of BABIP.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#17 » by Mr Swagtastic » Fri Apr 29, 2011 8:22 pm

What are you talking about Power or a complete hitter? If your talking about the best "pure hitter" then I still say Ichiro is the best for me look at the numbers and what he's done they are insane. He's never hit under 200 hits in a year is a career .331 hitter and has grounded into a double play just 48 times in 11 years that is insane.

Jose is a monster and feared as a hitter but I think still the best all around hitter for power, average and production is either Milkey Cabera or Robinson Cano.

I would put Jose in the top 5 for sure don't get me wrong but I don't think he could out hit guys like Ichiro, Cano, Carbera and even a possible healthy Joe Mauer if your talking about wining the batting title for average.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#18 » by Randle McMurphy » Fri Apr 29, 2011 8:28 pm

You mean Miguel Cabrera, not Melky. Melky deserves no respect, I'll always hate him for hitting a 300 foot HR off Halladay and reacting as if it was the biggest hit of all time.
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#19 » by MGD24 » Fri Apr 29, 2011 8:38 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:You mean Miguel Cabrera, not Melky. Melky deserves no respect, I'll always hate him for hitting a 300 foot HR off Halladay and reacting as if it was the biggest hit of all time.


lol well it probably was, and will be, the biggest hit of his career
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Re: Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL? 

Post#20 » by Randle McMurphy » Fri Apr 29, 2011 8:42 pm

MGD24 wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:You mean Miguel Cabrera, not Melky. Melky deserves no respect, I'll always hate him for hitting a 300 foot HR off Halladay and reacting as if it was the biggest hit of all time.


lol well it probably was, and will be, the biggest hit of his career

Just looked it up. It was on Opening Day in 2008 in Yankee Stadium (where else can you hit regular fly balls for HRs?). Tied the game and they later went on to win by one run.
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