Jonas Valanciunas

[Dr Positivity]

Yeah, Pau and Bogut bulked up. A ton of other Cs didnt. I will believe Val can become a thick C when it happens. Right now he has 18 year old Chris Boshs body.

[Satoransky]

Pau at 21
http://www.ibiblio.org/craig/draft/2001_draft/Players/gasol.shtml

[freestyler34]

His athleticism is more than fine and I don't really know what to tell someone who believes that 18 year old bigs are supposed to have great lower body strength. How many of the current interior defensive aces in the NBA had more lower body strength than Valanciunas at the same age? Honest question, I'm really curious.

Btw, why haven't you answered the other question?

Can u tell me whats his strong sides when u compare him to a regular nba center or any pro center ? And please dont start with that he got potential and will be this, will be that someday thingy mr. Nostradamus.
Every center that plays pro bball can play pick and rolls and finish open plays around the rim, and obviously hes not an elite athlete for NBA standards plus he dont know what hes doing on defense and fouling too much, now can u tell me whats his advantages that makes him a lottery pick

[babyjax13]

I don't see how you can compare Val with a guy as athletic as Chandler.

EDIT: As a person who has only seen him in the highlight films from youtube I would liken him to Marc Gasol.

[Satoransky]

Valanciunas athletic like Vazquez, fast like Javtokas, shooting like Big Z, rebounding like Biedrins and play hard like Noah or Varejao. Not enough?

[Kirsten19]

His athleticism looks like it is nowhere near NBA standards, his offensive game is still very raw and he lacks strength (both upper n lower body)

Two other better bigs in the draft, Kanter and Biyombo, are both 18 year olds but they dont have the strength problem and Kanter is much polished offensively. While Biyombo is probably the most athletic player in the draft class and is a already the leading shotblocker and among the leaders in rebounding per 40min in the most competitive league outside NBA.

Kanter, Val and Biyombo have their strengths and weaknesses. I dont see Valanciunas having any obvious advantages over the other two to be honest. Dont tell me because of his MVP in U18 Euro Chams, Kosta Koufos was a U18 Euro Chams MVP as well and he is not contributing in NBA.

Valanciunas is probably a slightly above average athlete in euroleague, but his athleticism is nowhere near NBA standards. I am still imagining him guarding Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin, Josh Smith and Andrew Bynum

[Dr Positivity]

Tristan Thompson should be getting as much talk as Biyombo and Val. For one it's not just about the C position defensively in terms of interior d. Secondly TT's wingspan should give him potential to guard Cs. Also, it seems to me like there's as many teams who need a defensive guy at PF as C. Sac has Cousins, Detroit has Monroe, Washington has McGee. They are in no rush to push these guys out for a Biyombo or Valanciunas. Thompson is a phenomenal fit beside Cousins and Monroe as a 10 and 9 two way big

TT, Biyombo and Val are all in the same boat as sort of raw big men getting picked for defensive potential. I have no idea what to think of Biyombo, but in today's NBA I would rather take the TT type over the Valanciunas one. I expect TT ends up top 8 with them

[Darknemo2000]

I do not need to watch Vals game live to know he has defensive awareness and foul issues. It has been written plenty, it has been confirmed plenty by posters in threads like this, it has been shown in videos like that Locke breakdown. That is enough for me to confirm Val is question mark in terms of his defensive head for the game - at the very least, it should not be considered a strength

Actually, you should remember that he keeps on improving on defensive end. This september he was far from reliable for his team when we talk about defense, but right now he is the best defender on their team. You can clearly see it by the pace the game is going. Valanciunas on court - opponents cannot find ways under the basket, Rytas has full rebounding control and frontline has troubles in scoring and Rytas team advantage grows, Valanciunas out - opponents usually start a run and are decreasing deficit or at least stop it from growing, and the frontline starts scoring.

It goes like that a number of games already, while in the beginning it was much worse, when Valanciunas was on court they could not get stops and though Jonas offensive rebounding prevented games from drifting it was not enough to build considerable lead.

The best visual example would be Jonas playing against the same center twice, one at the beginning of the season and one at the very end of it.

In the beginning of the season that center got 18 points, 14 of them came when Valanciunas was guarding him. And at the end of the season they had a matchup again. The center in question scored 13 points but only 2 of them when Valanciunas was guarding him, while the rest came in a span of 8 minutes when Valanciunas was sitting on the bench.

Valanciunas is improving his defensive game, if you wtach the start of the season and now you can clearly see the diference.

His skills are still inferior compared to say Kanter who has much better game with back to the basket and solid range.

Valanciunas rarely shoots from midrange but thats because coaches are telling him so. he shoots only when clock is running out and usually he makes those shots (with his high FT % I dont think it should be a surprise him making those shots).

Valanciunas rarely gets the ball on offense and the fact that he is the second best scorer on Rytas team kind of looks ironic, as he usually gets less touches than the rest of his teamates, but scores mostly cleaning offensive boards and putting the ball back in, by FT or by occasional pick'n'rolls.

You can say that everyone can do pick'n'rolls but Valanciunas does it much better than your usual center. His wide palms allows him to control even bad passes and while other centers are still scarmbing with a control of the ball, Valanciunas is already in a shooting motion and with his ability at finishing those usually turn into the points, and even if he were to miss, his quick second jump and length makes it pretty easy for him to grab an offensive rebound. Even when he is boxed out his long arms are still problematic for the opponents as he can still tip them for the teammate or rebound it over opponents head.

Less than a month a new coach came to Rytas team and he is allowing Valanciunas more freedom offensively thats why in LKL play-offs Valanciunas is pretty much the biggest threat both offensively and defensively on Rytas team (who is playing very crappy otherwise and without Valanciunas they would have had much more trouble on reaching the finals).

[droponov]

Yeah, Pau and Bogut bulked up. A ton of other Cs didnt. I will believe Val can become a thick C when it happens. Right now he has 18 year old Chris Boshs body.

Pau and Bogut? What's about them? They're white too? Odd thoughts.

I'm not talking about races, I'm saying that it's extremely rare to find 18 years old with great lower body strength. As well as it is to expect a 18 years old playing his first games as a professional - and doing it in the Euroleague, from which most of that film comes from - to have the defensive acumen of a 5 years veteran. How many bigs, many of them with years of college experience, are defensive aces when they jump into the pro game? How many don't blow rotations or don't get in foul trouble?

So, the kind of weaknesses you're pointing out are shared by pretty much every player of his age.

When I'm scouting young players, what matters to me is if they have the tools to become good defenders. If they have the mobility, if they have some fundamentals in place - if they contest shots with the correct hand, if they keep a good stance, if they close out under control and with hands raised, if they slide their feet correctly, if they ballwatch and lose track of their man, etc, if they're active with their hands, if they have the initiative to make smart defensive plays by themselves and if they show the eagerness to defend. With that in place, one should expect steady improvement - as Valanciunas has been showing.

I mean, you constantly mention he's foul prone. Which is true. However, here's what's more important to me: in the Euroleague regular season group stage, he averaged 8.3 fouls per 36 (we should use the per 28 minutes standard, because nobody plays 36mpg in the EL). In the top-16, the 2nd half of the reg. season, he averaged 5.8 per 36 minutes and a manageable 4.1 fouls per 28 minutes. Valanciunas fouled out in 2 of his first 4 games but never fouled out in his last 10 and only got a 4th foul once. Suddenly it doesn't look like he's that foul prone, does it? At least it's clear he caught up and reduced his foul proneness quite a bit.

And these improvements are extremely apparent and obvious watching him play through the season, I have no idea how you missed them.

[droponov]

His athleticism is more than fine and I don't really know what to tell someone who believes that 18 year old bigs are supposed to have great lower body strength. How many of the current interior defensive aces in the NBA had more lower body strength than Valanciunas at the same age? Honest question, I'm really curious.

Btw, why haven't you answered the other question?

Can u tell me whats his strong sides when u compare him to a regular nba center or any pro center ? And please dont start with that he got potential and will be this, will be that someday thingy mr. Nostradamus.

Mr Nostradamus? Please refrain from using that childish name-calling when replying to my posts.

Your post is bizarre. You're drafting players for many seasons, not for a 1 year rental. The important part of evaluating these kids is how they project for the future. Of course there's a fairly high degree of uncertainty, but that's why these discussions exist in the first place. Why there's a draft process at all.

Anyway, it's quite obvious some strengths that he already has. For one, the guy is the leading rebounder in the Euroleague. He has the highest rebounding rate ever recorded in the Euroleague. And he's not rebounding against 7fters once in a blue moon or having games against teams that field 4 guards and a 6'8'' center or matching up with some future economist or match teacher. Every Euroleague team has a few legit bigs, including many former NBAers and college stars. Guys who would destroy the competition if they were still playing in college. A 22.7% TRb% is just superb. Not only rebounding is one of those things that translate well, according to Hollinger the rebound rate per minute increases by 18% when a player moves from the NBA to the Euroleague. Considering he averaged almost 15 rebounds per 36 in the Euroleague... He's a very smart rebounder with incredibly soft hands and very quick leaving the floor.

Or one could mention that he's the most efficient scorer in the Euroleague too, leading the league with an insane 75.2 TS%. Sure, that wouldn't be possible if he was asked to create his own shots or to take jump-shots. However, let's not pretend he's only scoring on putbacks or in the occasional hand-off. He has a relatively high 21% usage rate and scores 14 points per 28 minutes - he's a top-5 center in terms of scoring per minute. He's an opportunistic scorer - but he creates opportunities at a much higher rate than your average opportunistic scorer and he's also well above average converting them. That's what happens when you're so mobile, fundamentally sound and, more important, you have those kind of soft hands.

If any pro center could do what he does, his production wouldn't be notable. But it is. And the reason for that is not a size advantage or something harder to translate.

Every center that plays pro bball can play pick and rolls and finish open plays around the rim, and obviously hes not an elite athlete for NBA standards plus he dont know what hes doing on defense and fouling too much, now can u tell me whats his advantages that makes him a lottery pick

Stop with the rolling eyes too. Using it there makes you look silly.

I wish I had a penny for every time a NBA pick setter doesn't set the screen at the correct angle or rolls of it for the wrong side, turning to the wrong foot. I'd be extremely rich. I'm not even going to get into those guys who have no hope of not fumbling half of the hard passes thrown their way while rolling to the basket. Not to mention those dozens who struggle to finish around the rim, either because they lack touch or they have to bring the ball back all the time before going up.

I understand the issue here though: you think he's not a lottery pick because in your world the worst NBA big is an improved version of Tim Duncan.

[carrottop12]

Dominated last game. 1 point, 2 boards in 17 minutes. HOF anyone?

[Satoransky]

Dominated last game. 1 point, 2 boards in 17 minutes. HOF anyone?

He celebrates his birthday, so everything is ok

[Kirsten19]

His lack of athleticism is something I don't think it will improve. I dunno...

[Darknemo2000]

Dominated last game. 1 point, 2 boards in 17 minutes. HOF anyone?

Yep it was a bad game. It happens, believe it or not. The game before he scored 23 points, 8 rebonds (6 offensive), in 22 minutes. He is young and lacks stability, specially when we talk about final pases of play-offs.

[Kirsten19]

His stock is clearly falling. Espn and Chad Ford have him projected at 8th.

[karolis1221]

His stock is clearly falling. Espn and Chad Ford have him projected at 8th.

thats good news i dont want him go too high... Best and safest for him is top 10-15 and still it would be top pick ever for lithuanian player.

[brassviews]

His stock is clearly falling. Espn and Chad Ford have him projected at 8th.

Ford said he'll slip because of his buyout. Regardless, I hope he does fall if he declares. I don't like the prospect of a young player like Valanciunas going so high. He's certainly a project, and I don't want people to start calling him a bust in his first year. People who don't know anything about Valanciunas (aside from Youtube videos) will be quick to judge. Simple as that.......

Looking at the draft order, I hope he goes to either Jazz (12), Cavaliers (8), Suns (13), or Rockets (14). I think those teams would be the best for his development.

[babyjax13]

If he drops to 12 I'd be ecstatic.

[Kaner]

His stock is clearly falling. Espn and Chad Ford have him projected at 8th.

Ford said he'll slip because of his buyout. Regardless, I hope he does fall if he declares. I don't like the prospect of a young player like Valanciunas going so high. He's certainly a project, and I don't want people to start calling him a bust in his first year. People who don't know anything about Valanciunas (aside from Youtube videos) will be quick to judge. Simple as that.......

Looking at the draft order, I hope he goes to either Jazz (12), Cavaliers (8), Suns (13), or Rockets (14). I think those teams would be the best for his development.

I totally understand what you're saying, but if he does go so high, and doesn't develop the NBA game at a good pace and frustrates the fans/front office that had high hopes for a lotto pick...how is that NOT a bust? Good argument

[Darknemo2000]

His stock is clearly falling. Espn and Chad Ford have him projected at 8th.

The main reason for that drop is not because of lack of talent but because the problematic buyout he has though. It seems to be more complicated than many thought.