2011 DRAFT blather goes here. Part 3...

[badinage]

Been watching Vesely clips. Yeah, lots of dunking. Lots and lots of dunking. But let's talk about the dunking -- I mean, Jesus. He skies in these clips. He's got power. He can handle the ball. He's feisty (no, not merely "active").

I'd like to see more of him. Other clips, where he's just shooting and cutting and passing. But just on the basis of what I've seen, any comparisons to Bargnani are based solely on his Euro-ness and skin color. This kid is extremely ath-uh-letic.

I'm wondering, btw, if the recent leaked rumor of us being interested in Kanter if we should land the No. 1 is a smokescreen, meant to distract GMs and front office folks from the fact we're in love with Vesely.

Also, take a read ...

This is a game recap from two years ago. A pre-season game against Phoenix. Now, granted -- it's pre-season. And granted, it's the not-much-D-playing Suns. But Vesely at the time was 19, and he led Partizan in scoring. 19. He's been playing pro ball a while now. And there are a couple clips of him hammering one home against Suns players. ...

---

PHOENIX -- Amare Stoudemire scored 12 points in his first game in eight months, and the Phoenix Suns used a strong defensive effort to beat Partizan Belgrade 111-80 on Tuesday night in their preseason opener.

The Suns, who insist they will improve their defense this season, held the Serbian team to two field goals in the second quarter -- none in the first nine minutes -- and outscored them 35-15 in the period.

"Defense is what we've been keying on," Stoudemire said. "The guys hustled and put forth the effort on defense. The guys brought it and executed."

Goran Dragic led the balanced Suns with 16 points and Jason Richardson had 15. Jared Dudley scored 14, while Grant Hill and Channing Frye 10 apiece. Stoudemire was playing his first game since undergoing surgery to repair a detached retina Feb. 20. He played with a protective mask.

Nineteen-year-old Jan Vesely topped Partizan with 16 points and Aleksandar Maric had 14.

The refocused Suns, one of the NBA's worst defensive teams last season, showed their emphasis on defense this year by forcing Partizan into 22 first-half turnovers, resulting in 24 points, including 14 miscues in the sloppy first quarter. They also held the visitors to 32 percent shooting overall (9 for 28), and 1 for 10 from 3-point range. Phoenix had 14 steals and a 55-34 lead by halftime.

"I thought we did a good job defensively," Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. "We made some progress in our defense. I like the effort and the communication part of what we did on defense."

Partizan Belgrade finished with 36 turnovers, leading to 36 points.

It was a typical opening preseason game, with little fluidity on offense early in the game for the Suns. They started newcomer Frye at center, in place of the traded Shaquille O'Neal, and second-year pro Dragic at point guard, replacing All-Star Steve Nash, sidelined with a chest cold.

The first period was particularly embarrassing for the Suns, as they committed eight turnovers and led only 20-19. After an 11-0 run in the first three minutes of the opening quarter following an early field goal by Partizan, the Suns made only two field goals the rest of the period.

Once they got their offense clicking in the second quarter, the Suns turned the game into a rout over the young team from Belgrade.

[Illuminaire]

I can't tell if your last post was a sophisticated, cerebral, and remarkably humorous argument against Vesely, or an accidentally backhanded attempt to defend him as a draft selection.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Watching the Kanter workout vid for Grover, the player that came to mind is Gugliatta. Physically similar I think, both 6-10, both are strong, fluid, good rebounders, and good form on the J.

[jivelikenice]

Gotta disagree with the Googs comparison. Tom had a face up game but was not very effective with his back to the basket. Kanter seems like a low post player who can shot the 15-18 footer if need be.

If the Wiz are that high on him, I wonder if we could trade up to #3 if we don't land a top 3 selection on our own.

[dobrojim]

Anybody here working with some pre-lotto superstitions/voodoo?

I haven't worn pants for four days. So...yeah, that's because of the lottery.

TMI

[dangermouse]

I cant remember what i did last year...

But this year I will be wearing my new pair of lucky red socks. They have served me well. My NBL team needed to win 4/4 games at the end of the season to make the playoffs, for the first 3 i wore them (without washing haha) and they won each time. For some reason i got cocky and thought they were a good enough team to not need the mystical socks anymore. When the 4th and final game started, i considered donning them. At half time, they were up by over 20 points, the socks stayed folded in the sock drawer, untouched. We lost by one god damn point. One.

I will never doubt or underestimate the power of the socks again, and now that the Wizards feature red in their uniforms, it will work for the Wiz too. #1 pick here we come.

[doclinkin]

Watching Taj Gibson reminds me again you never discount a productive upperclassman. If you want an influx of BBIQ why not risk a pick on a player who has already served their apprenticeship and training period?

And never sleep on players who already demonstrate defensive aptitude and energy. Even in draft evaluation it's easy to gloss over the defensive game in favor of the flash statistics or sexy upside. There are a limited number of players in every draft who actually succeed at the next level, and there is a limited time frame for them to prove their utility. You get quicker production out of more finished products, and players who already have a two-way game will actually see extended floor time, earning the trust of coaches where a bit of offensive razzle dazzle might otherwise only earn you spot minutes trying to gun your way back into blow-outs etc. Granted this team has no established offensive stars, there are minutes to be earned at every position, but still.

Players like Faried, (soph) Kawhi Leonard, or Singleton will be surely able to defend at the next level. Jeff Taylor shows the right intensity of effort and good habits, athletix. I like sleepers like understated 2nd rd (undrafted?) prospect Damian Saunders as another glue guy. Syracuse's Rick Jackson casts a Kendrick Perkins-like shadow. We're trying to build a foundation, a complete team from the ground up, in a draft with less upside guys or high end talent might as well add a few more complete players.

[doclinkin]

Since it's moot later today. Might as well post the state of the doc as of right now. I'm fine with our options with a top 3 pick, but beyond that, I'd be happiest to open up the bidding for teams trying to move up, get a proven commodity (or more than one) lower down and a future pick in a deeper year.

1. Williams
2. Williams
3. Kanter
4. Trade. Kemba Walker if nothing decent. I'd have no problem selecting the star PG from a championship team as a solid back-up. I suspect the team says otherwise, but it just seems to me it only helps push John Wall to improve to add a savvy cunning alternate on the bench. And depth is a very good thing, when you look at our injury record.

5. Trade. Kawhi Leonard if nothing good.

6. Trade. Bismack, I suppose. If you reach on upside, then at least take the physical freak with a defensive mindset. Just don't expect much early and don't get too excited about the physiometrics, Obinna Ekeze and Benjamin Eze (who? exactly...) had similar wingspan for the height.

I only put him this high because, much as the skeptic in me wants to dislike the hype, I like his panache in the clips I see. Mostly in his body language, vocal leadership, aggrieved determination. (The Loopy wingnut says I like his mental assay as well as his physical, will post the metas at some point, but the thumbnail sketch: same as wifeydoc, Day Of Language, technical skills, can learn anything if they put their mind to it).

But mostly because he's fun to watch. He doesn't move like anyone I've ever seen. This is a Gheorghe Muresan pick for me. Every minute he's on the court I'll be watching him regardless of his +/- or win/loss. So for entertainment value any highlight plays he makes will count triple in my emotional box score. Even though I suspect he'll kinda suck for a while.

7. Trade. Reach on Chris Singleton. Hope Faried is still there at 18. I suspect other teams will take the 3 and D guy before the rebounding dynamo.

This year especially you can't get too fussy about value for draft position. If you get a player who earns minutes for you and succeeds then who cares where he was drafted. No need to overthink it. Where I'm at today. Granted all of the above will change as of tonight...

[hands11]

Anyone catch the Bulls/Heat game last night? Bulls outrebounded Miami to death. We need HEIGHT, preferably some skills to go with that height.

Height maketh not a rebounder, as evidenced by Dray and Vale.

Both averaged 8 boards last year. McGee up from 4 and Dray up from 6

Dray half injured all year.
McGee half stupid.

Both should be less of each thing next year.

After being patient through the rough growth process of both, Im actually my most hopeful that this combo could actually impress next year. Specially if we add the right draft picks.

[verbal8]

After being patient through the rough growth process of both, Im actually my most hopeful that this combo could actually impress next year. Specially if we add the right draft picks.

I don't know if it will come in the draft, but I think adding a legit low post threat will be important for the Wizards to improve. Look at the 3 most surprising teams in the season/playoffs the Grizzlies, Sixers and Bulls. The one thing they have in common is a legit low post scoring threat.

[pancakes3]

I don't know if it will come in the draft, but I think adding a legit low post threat will be important for the Wizards to improve.

i think health+chemistry will be our major propellant towards 40+ wins. i doubt we'll add anyone who would make more of an impact (much less draft anyone) better than the starting lineup of Wall, Young, Shard, Blatche, and McGee. DWill might add some much-needed athleticism but i don't see him outperforming shard for at least 2 seasons.

[Dark Faze]

D.Will would be better than Shard...Shard is a broken man.

[nate33]

Hmmm. Nbadraft.net now has Valanciunas at #6. (They had him way down in the teens not too long ago.) DX still has him going 4th which is probably a bit optimistic (but at least they don't have him going 2nd anymore). Chad Ford has him going #8. At any rate, it seems that his stock has solidified in the 4-8 range.

Nbadraft.net has Biyombo going 18th! DX and Chad Ford have him going #7. Somebody is way off base.

[verbal8]

Hmmm. Nbadraft.net now has Valanciunas at #6. (They had him way down in the teens not too long ago.) DX still has him going 4th which is probably a bit optimistic (but at least they don't have him going 2nd anymore). Chad Ford has him going #8. At any rate, it seems that his stock has solidified in the 4-8 range.

Nbadraft.net has Biyombo going 18th! DX and Chad Ford have him going #7. Somebody is way off base.

I can't really see him sliding much past 10th. If he is there at 18(or in a trade-up scenario) I think the Wizards have to roll the dice.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

Agreed. I've developed a man-crush on Ibaka over the course of these playoffs, and I'd love for Biyombo to come in and fill that kind of role. Shot blocking, hustling, big man. I'd pay good money to watch him embarrass Blatche and McGee in the weight room and outhustle them in practice too.

[REDardWIZskin]

Updated mock on DX has us going with 3 front court players. what i have been calling for all along. They don't have my preferred picks though. Valanciunas at 4, Singleton at 18, and T. Thomkins in the 2nd round. I would substitute Kanter for Val and Benson for Thomkins though.

Another note they moved my boy C. Jenkins up to the first pick of the second round.

[The Consiglieri]

In before the lock, again...

Part One is here.
Part two is here.

What's your current state of mind.
What's your top 6.
Who you got at 18?
What round two prospect.

How do you envision them fitting in with the team-- where's the synergy or who do they displace?

Your thoughts below.

Looking at the stats it's so awful:

14 lotteries (how in hell have we been in that few since 1985, i would swear we've sucked a hellvalot more than 14 times in the past 26 years, I guess the Cwebb years, the Jeff Malone years, and the three or so big 3 years changed how many times we actually got to participate)

2 successful climb ups

2 stay puts

10 epic fails of various pain threshholds.

Unbelievably bad luck.

Im kinda shocked at how horrible the system is, it really appears weighted deliberately to try to get freaky things like the Derek Rose fluke to happen. By insuring that the worst team is far far more likely not to get a top pick, then to get one, that the 4 worst teams actually have a little more Ii think) than a 1 in 4 shot of not even getting a top overall pick. It's insanely stupid to me. It would almost make Gladwell and Simmons article on espn from years ago about a totally random draft make sense. Punish the dumb teams by making them have no better odds than the well run teams. Might as well be honest, right.

As it is, Im nervous, it really feels like there are 3 players we can get seriously excited about landing, a fourth who would be interesting, and then a whole lot of role player debris with probably, but not certainly, a player or two who will turn out to be a gem, but who noone could honestly say "they knew it all along" about. Last year I had no feeling at all, and that brought about good luck, seemingly, this year I have a dread of the 5th or 6th pick, i dont think the seventh is likely (famous last words) but seven seems almost as likely as one. I tend to think we'll be at 5 or 6 (70% chance in my mind, with about a 30% chance of 2, 3 or 4. I know im wrong on the odds, its just how i feel, right now.

1. Enes Kantner-I think he has the most size/upside combo, other guys might be a little better, and be more likely to be better, but if everything worked out, the only guy I think would have a better chance to be a very good player is Biyombo, but i think he carries more risk than Kantner.

2. Kyrie Irving-Best talent/liklihood of being a quality player combo.

3. Derrick Williams-Rocketing up since January, i like him, as long as he's a 4.

4. Bismack Biyombo-Along with Kantner, he's a guy Id like to get the most other than Williams.

----------------------------------------------------

The Horror:

This is where the decision is between upside guys, college dominators that may not be able to make the jump or may be able to and were just underrated for their skills/determination combo and guys that look like they could be great role players: Do you go Walker because his will to win, and to handle business under high pressure was peerless, do you go Singleton or Faried as so many of us would because those guys while ranked in the 10-25 area, are so damn good at what they do well, that they should have a role at the next level, and just might have the potential to be very good or great if they can continue to grow, do you grab a morris guy hoping you don't have, for lack of a better comparison, a hilton armstrong, big program, big player who sucks at the next level and you knew all along he might suck? Im a big believer in going upside rather than role player because in my mind, these guys fail at such an enormously high rate, that it's better to draft guys with nba projectable skill sets, and hope they grow in terms of maturity and work habits, than go for a guy whose probably done growing, and might have a role he could fill but would never be better than that. The latter guys to me, have a much higher failure rate than the former guys. Thats why while we may hate Blatche, we could have gone with the role player, low upside pick and gotten our 10 thousandth Laron Profit type non-entity, who never accomplishes anything and cant even really belong on a roster.

I do not believe Faried, or Singleton fit in the low upside zone. I think both are so damn good at what they do that they are at minumum, gonna be solid defenisve players with skill sets that will allow them to be at least good players for a team. If they grow, they could be borderline great.

5. Kemba Walker-I think he will make it at the next level. /Trade out

6. Random Euro/Trade out



The guys i like at 18 are Faried, Singleton, Leonard (not going to be there), a Morris brother that's available, Tristan Thompson, Tobias Harris, Jordan Hamilton.

If we land a pick that is 5th, 6th or 7th and cannot get Biyombo I think we should trade it for a future pick, and just package our 18th, and 34th to insure we can get the combo role player/upside guy that makes sense, a Singleton, a Faried, that we really like and let that be our draft. Unless there's some Euro that really makese sense, , keeping the 5/6 or 7 pick rather than trading it is beyond foolish. We are in a situation in which 3 of the best 7 or so players domestically in the draft play a position where we absolutely have no need for the players, we cannot keep the pick if we are in a slot where the only value is a Kemba Walker or a Brandon Knight. I just can't see it, i agree w/the consensus that it will be hard to move the pick, but we can incentiveze the trade with a veteran player, and or lottery protections of some sort. Getting a guy like Brandon Knight, or one of the flat out almost sure bust/very little upside guys does nothing for us, we're already getting something like that at 18, or at least engaging in a high risk of getting only that at 18, better to trade that pick for the future, and use the 18 pick for our needs, like most of you i view that as Faried or Singleton (though I am mildly excited with the raves the Morris brothers are getting from guys like David Thorpe)

[The Consiglieri]

Yeah, yeah, be all practical. Just get me Kanter, OK?

And yes, seriously, I hope we can resign Nick at a reasonable level that will make everyone happy.

With Wall bringing up the possibility, unsolicited, of picking Kanter 1st overall, you'd have to think he is in management's ear about this. Wall also has the inside skinny on Kanter through his Kentucky connections, so I'm sure he isn't basing his desire off of wild unsupported speculation.

How much do you guys think it would cost to go from 4 or 5 to #2? Who on our team, and what picks would you give up to get there, whether for Kanter, or Williams?

Which brings to mind two thoughts, #1, this is why some of us are so infuriated by late season wins that pushed us from a seemingly 17 or 18 win team, to the 4th, and nearly 5th pick slot in the lottery. It's infuriating to have Ping Pong Ball assets slip out of your hand like that. Second thought is analogous to last year. I was jumping for joy when our teams logo hadn't shown up through the 4 slot last year, i thought everything else was gravy. We were in line for Cousins, Favors, Turner or Wall, when w were at 2 or better i was beside myself. A year later, its absolutely clear that if we instead of philly, had been the logo at 2, our rebuild might have been completely botched if we (as we probably would have) had gone Evan Turner. Now, more than anything we need to hope for a top 2 or 3, and failing that, we can't simply be fixated alone on that, but actually must be praying for as high as possible, 4 still has alot more value than 5, 5 is much better than 6, 6 is better than 7 etc. 5, 6 and 7 are not interchangable the higher we are the easier it is to potentially move into a slot to get Kanter or Williams.

In my own mind, a top 4 pick is imperative, i still think Biyombo could help, i also think if we fell to 5 we still might be able to move up for Kantner depending upon who gets 1-3. Just hoping for 1-2 right now, or a position and a team combo in the prized positions that would be willing to deal with us.

[TGW]

I think my plan would be to obtain Kanter (pf) and Marcus Morris (sf). That combo would add size and skill to our pitiful forward rotation.

Trade Blatche and the 18th and move up to #10 to grab Marcus.

[The Consiglieri]

This may of been posted before... but this is from nbadraft.net

Jan Vesely 6-11 230 SF/PF Czech Republic 1990 The Wizards are extremely high on Vesely and it's unlikely they would allow him to slip by them at 4. He's is ultra long and athletic and has the ability to play either forward position. He's a tweener but a good tweener in the sense that he can create mismatches due to his size. He will need to add strength and could struggle some guarding on the perimeter due to lack of foot speed, but his incredible length and improving skill set make him a projected high lottery pick. He's been compared to both Dunleavy's (Mike senior and junior) due to his shooting ability and adroit ball handling skills. He has had a strong end to the season for Partizan Belgrade after starting off slowly.

I can see this being Ernie's guy considering his past picks of Nowitzki and Pecherov.

Interesting, I wonder if our worst case scenario (slot 4, 5, 6 or 7) guys are Vesely and Leonard.