2010-11 Player of the Year thread

JordansBulls · Post #101 » by **JordansBulls** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:11 pm

I can understand not picking Dwight #1 this year based off of going out in round 1 and losing with HCA, but he clearly was top 5, and should probably be in the top 3 depending on what happens the rest of the playoffs.

An Unbiased Fan · Post #102 » by **An Unbiased Fan** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:12 pm

nonemus wrote:I guess Derrick Rose shouldn't be in anyone's top 5 then. He PS doesn't count for much, as he played teams with an average SRS of -1.20 (two of the worst playoff teams of the decade). And his RS is not worthy of being better than that of Howard/James/Wade/Kobe/Durant.

amirite?

Depends on how far he leads Chicago. He's borderline right now, and there are about 8-9 guys with a claim at Top 5. Right now, he's in my Top 5 with Dirk, Durant, Dwight.

Zach is borderline, Kobe was only +4.7 in eff/diff during the playoffs, so he's out, Wade is behind Kobe, so I would put Lebron at the #5 spot right now. Years like this makes me wish is was a Top 10 instead of Top 5.

1) Durant
2) Dirk
3) Dwight
4) Rose
5) LeRogaine

Post #103 » by **Doctor MJ** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:18 pm

Ah, forgot to post this here. My top 10 after the conference semis:

http://asubstituteforwar.com/2011/05/16 ... ence-semis

Player (last rank)

1. Dwight Howard (1)

Odd position to be in. Howard’s sitting at home while the next 5 guys are all on the last 4 teams playing for the championship and playing fantastic. As much as I don’t want to be swayed by who has the better supporting casts, at this point I think it’s unlikely that Howard will keep the top spot when all is said and done.

2. Derrick Rose (2)

Started off the playoffs slow with some nagging injuries. He’s looking quite solid now. It’s also interesting that there was so much stat community negativity toward the guy during the season, meanwhile he keeps showing more as the season goes along. Doesn’t mean they were wrong by any means, but if Rose truly does emerge as a guy challenging for the top spot in advanced statistical metrics in the near future, I can just hear the frustration among the statistically minded.

Bucher: “So you admit you were wrong now?”

Stat guy: “No, YOU were wrong, but now you’re right. It’s a complete coincidence.”,

Bucher: “Whatever you want to tell yourself, I could have told you he’d do this because I watch the games.”

Stat guy: “Gah! That statement doesn’t even mean anything!” <Head explodes>

3. LeBron James (3)

Noticing a trend of players being seemingly locked in place? Yeah, expect that to change quite a bit after these conference finals matchups.

James and the Heat were damn impressive in their flogging of the Celtics. Something I will say right now, if they can repeat that in the next two rounds, hard to imagine my #1 being someone other than James or Wade. I still consider LeBron to be the best player in the game, and while I maintain he hasn’t had the impact of previous years, it’s going to be awful hard to hold that against him if his club wins the whole shebang.

4. Dirk Nowitzki (4)

Wow. Sweeping the Lakers. Did not see that coming. I’m tempted to move him higher right now, but the guys above him are pretty dang impressive, and I don’t want to overreact to one series.

Something I will say though is that I think Dirk gets underrated. Look at his supporting cast. Not that they aren’t good, but they are good because of the way they fit together. And Dirk makes it easy to fit a cast around him. I think people overstate how much credit on ball scorers get for their assists. If you aren’t a brilliant distributor, then someone else could get those same assists, and by making your team’s best scorer and primary distributor be one in the same, you’re missing a chance to spread the floor.

5. Kevin Durant (5)

Certainly continues to deserve his place. Still waiting for OKC to convince me they are ready to be thought of as contenders though.

6. Dwyane Wade (6)

Feels so wrong to have Wade out of the top 5. We only have a total 3 more series to go, and he could still jump up to #1.

7. Chris Paul (7)

There’s a clear top 6 this year, then there’s Paul, and then there’s everyone else. Hard to imagine his spot changing with him gone fishin’ short of other players totally falling apart. Presuming he’s healthy next year, you could do worse than to call these 7 guys the creme of the NBA.

8. Zach Randolph (NR)

For all my conservativeness in the top 7, the last 3 spots see a sea change. I’m not willing to go as nuts as some others did proclaiming Randolph a candidate for best player in the playoffs. However he was quite good, leading a Memphis team that proved quite legit (This was no “Don Nelson upset” situation). With the way others have fallen off, putting him at the 8 spot seems right.

9. Russell Westbrook (NR)

Westbrook’s been crucified lately for not getting the ball to Durant enough. The criticisms aren’t wrong, but they go overboard. People always underestimate how easy it is to get the ball to the guy everyone knows you want to get it to. Westbrook needs to get better at this, and right now I’d still take a healthy Paul, Deron Williams, or Steve Nash over him at the 1, but dude has been a warrior for the Thunder while at times Durant has looked content to let the play pass him by.

10. Paul Pierce (NR)

This is a spot that really, really up in the air. Kind of expect you won’t see Pierce’s name here a round from now. Let’s give a shout out to the Celtics season though. This was a team that looked phenomenal for most of the season before losing out of steam. Even without the steam though, they swept the pseudo-superteam Knicks. Miami looked great against a Boston team that just didn’t have enough left in the tank – presuming Miami keeps it up, that’s nothing for the Celtic crew to be ashamed of.

Falling Off

Kobe Bryant & Pau Gasol – Swept, seriously? Both stars played bad. Gasol played so bad I just had to boot him off. Kobe wasn’t as bad, but y’know when you go through the whole season with a negative adjusted +/- and then lose in an upset sweep in the second round while playing bad, this is not a season worth honoring.

Manu Ginobili – Ginobili falls off simply as I have more time to consider others next to him. His limited minutes I could overlook as the team played great, but seriously, what is a 30 MPG guy on a team that lost in the first round doing still on my top 10 list?

Post #104 » by **alucryts** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:20 pm

nonemus wrote:I guess Derrick Rose shouldn't be in anyone's top 5 then. He PS doesn't count for much, as he played teams with an average SRS of -1.20 (two of the worst playoff teams of the decade). And his RS is not worthy of being better than that of Howard/James/Wade/Kobe/Durant.

amirite?

after the indiana series, he was NOT in the top 5 poy for his weak play and terrible shooting percentages. him and dirk are in on a thin margin of error. i dont "trust" either of them. rose has turned his playoffs around since then and the poor games could be attributed to the ankle turnings, but i dont know how to weigh his first two series. if rose has a great series vs miami, ill trust him more. if he has a poor series, i will weigh his poor start heavily and it will drop him out of the top 5.

these arent my final rankings.....there is a lot of chance to change and dirk and rose could move up or fall outa the top 5. falling out applies more to rose than dirk tho because of his poor shooting to start the playoffs vs a weak team.

JordansBulls · Post #105 » by **JordansBulls** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:22 pm

nonemus wrote:I guess Derrick Rose shouldn't be in anyone's top 5 then. He PS doesn't count for much, as he played teams with an average SRS of -1.20 (two of the worst playoff teams of the decade). And his RS is not worthy of being better than that of Howard/James/Wade/Kobe/Durant.

amirite?

Huh?? He didn't lose to Atlanta though, Dwight did despite every analyst picking them to win. And please stop saying these guys regular season was better. Rose led his team in PER, WS and WS/PER 48 minutes and was the only allstar on his team and led them to the best record. All of those other players either had someone on there team outproduce them or didn't lead their team to a top notch record as the only star on the team.

nonemus · Post #106 » by **nonemus** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:27 pm

JordansBulls wrote:
nonemus wrote:I guess Derrick Rose shouldn't be in anyone's top 5 then. He PS doesn't count for much, as he played teams with an average SRS of -1.20 (two of the worst playoff teams of the decade). And his RS is not worthy of being better than that of Howard/James/Wade/Kobe/Durant.

amirite?

Huh?? He didn't lose to Atlanta though, Dwight did despite every analyst picking them to win. And please stop saying these guys regular season was better. Rose led his team in PER, WS and WS/PER 48 minutes and was the only allstar on his team and led them to the best record. All of those other players either had someone on there team outproduce them or didn't lead their team to a top notch record as the only star on the team.

My point was they weren't great teams (statistically). But what does that have to do with him? He still performed well (exceeded most expectations statistically). Similarly, don't use the Hawks as an argument against Howard. 27/17 on 68% is ridiculously good regardless of opponnent.

It is by far the most asinine, farcical thing to do to not have Howard in your top 5.

Sheesh. This is actually irritating me...

Post #107 » by **Doctor MJ** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:28 pm

Worth chiming in on Dirk:

Dude was my MVP for most of the year. He fell back when he got injured, rose back up to #1, and then fell back again as his team slipped (which made it impossible to ignore how much his injury hurt the Mavs' final results.

With the way he's been playing in the post-season, he has an excellent shot to rise to #1 on my list after this round. I really don't think people appreciate how much more resilient he is now that he was 5 years ago. After notoriously disappointing in the first two playoffs people seriously started looking at him as a superstar, this is now the 4th playoff in a row where he's improved significantly over his regular season form, and the 3rd straight year that his PER has improved by more than 5 points come playoff time. I don't know if that's ever been done before.

colts18 · Post #108 » by **colts18** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:30 pm

JordansBulls wrote:
nonemus wrote:I guess Derrick Rose shouldn't be in anyone's top 5 then. He PS doesn't count for much, as he played teams with an average SRS of -1.20 (two of the worst playoff teams of the decade). And his RS is not worthy of being better than that of Howard/James/Wade/Kobe/Durant.

amirite?

Huh?? He didn't lose to Atlanta though, Dwight did despite every analyst picking them to win. And please stop saying these guys regular season was better. Rose led his team in PER, WS and WS/PER 48 minutes and was the only allstar on his team and led them to the best record. All of those other players either had someone on there team outproduce them or didn't lead their team to a top notch record as the only star on the team.

Howard outproduced Rose by a wide margin. The numbers (WS, PER, TS%) don't lie.

JordansBulls · Post #109 » by **JordansBulls** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:33 pm

nonemus wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:
nonemus wrote:I guess Derrick Rose shouldn't be in anyone's top 5 then. He PS doesn't count for much, as he played teams with an average SRS of -1.20 (two of the worst playoff teams of the decade). And his RS is not worthy of being better than that of Howard/James/Wade/Kobe/Durant.

amirite?

Huh?? He didn't lose to Atlanta though, Dwight did despite every analyst picking them to win. And please stop saying these guys regular season was better. Rose led his team in PER, WS and WS/PER 48 minutes and was the only allstar on his team and led them to the best record. All of those other players either had someone on there team outproduce them or didn't lead their team to a top notch record as the only star on the team.

My point was they weren't great teams (statistically). But what does that have to do with him? He still performed well (exceeded most expectations statistically). Similarly, don't use the Hawks as an argument against Howard. 27/17 on 68% is ridiculously good regardless of opponnent.

It is by far the most asinine, farcical thing to do to not have Howard in your top 5.

Sheesh. This is actually irritating me...

In no way or shape did I say Dwight was not going to be in my top 5, he will probably be in the top 3 unless we have some tremendous performances in these conference and nba finals.

Post #110 » by **alucryts** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:34 pm

nonemus wrote:My point was they weren't great teams (statistically). But what does that have to do with him? He still performed well (exceeded most expectations statistically). Similarly, don't use the Hawks as an argument against Howard. 27/17 on 68% is ridiculously good regardless of opponnent.

It is by far the most asinine, farcical thing to do to not have Howard in your top 5.

Sheesh. This is actually irritating me...

i just dont weigh the regular season very strongly. like i say i weigh the playoffs extremely heavily and team success is part of that. on a team that is a good playoff team, i seriously doubt dwight has those stats. those are overinflated as heck in my eyes.

nonemus · Post #111 » by **nonemus** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:35 pm

Inflated? There's no such thing as inflated stats (apart from pace, minutes). They are what they are, All numbers have the same god damn value.

Post #112 » by **Doctor MJ** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:40 pm

nonemus wrote:Inflated? There's no such thing as inflated stats (apart from pace, minutes). They are what they are, All numbers have the same god damn value.

Not getting into whether the numbers in question are inflated but: All numbers are not worth the same amount because those numbers are only approximations of actual value contributed. It is possible to play in systems that have inflated or deflated stats.

sp6r=underrated · Post #113 » by **sp6r=underrated** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:44 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
nonemus wrote:Inflated? There's no such thing as inflated stats (apart from pace, minutes). They are what they are, All numbers have the same god damn value.

Not getting into whether the numbers in question are inflated but: All numbers are not worth the same amount because those numbers are only approximations of actual value contributed. It is possible to play in systems that have inflated or deflated stats.

+ 1

Post #114 » by **alucryts** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:50 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
nonemus wrote:Inflated? There's no such thing as inflated stats (apart from pace, minutes). They are what they are, All numbers have the same god damn value.

Not getting into whether the numbers in question are inflated but: All numbers are not worth the same amount because those numbers are only approximations of actual value contributed. It is possible to play in systems that have inflated or deflated stats.

thats my point of view with dwight. the magic's make up has changed to allow dwight to "get his" in the sense that defenses play him 1v1. that 1v1 is inflating his offensive stats. if any of rose, lebron, wade, dirk, or durant were strictly played 1v1, they would also see huge jumps in stats, inflating their impact just the same.

its like me playing 1v1 vs a 6th grader and me playing 1v1 vs someone my age and athleticism. im going to look like a god vs the 6th grader and be much more in check vs they later. he played vs a defense designed to let him get his, inflating his stats above what they would be on a playoff team that advances.

Post #115 » by **alucryts** » Wed May 18, 2011 7:53 pm

if i had to guess, dwight will probably break into the top 5 because the other 5 havent been knocked out yet. they havent had their "negative" in the playoffs, while dwight has. my rankings will likely change a lot as it is when its all said and done. once everyone gets their negative is when i can really call it. if the bulls knock off the heat and wade/lebron continue to play like ass, at least one of them is going to drop hard for me. dont take my rankings as final....they arent meant to be.

Post #116 » by **Doctor MJ** » Wed May 18, 2011 8:25 pm

alucryts wrote:thats my point of view with dwight. the magic's make up has changed to allow dwight to "get his" in the sense that defenses play him 1v1. that 1v1 is inflating his offensive stats. if any of rose, lebron, wade, dirk, or durant were strictly played 1v1, they would also see huge jumps in stats, inflating their impact just the same.

its like me playing 1v1 vs a 6th grader and me playing 1v1 vs someone my age and athleticism. im going to look like a god vs the 6th grader and be much more in check vs they later. he played vs a defense designed to let him get his, inflating his stats above what they would be on a playoff team that advances.

You're certainly entitled to your vote here (and I have blocked votes before, there's nothing wrong with yours), but I don't really get your thinking.

Dwight's scoring numbers aren't ridiculously different than they had been in previous years. In general his stats are in about the same ballpark as they were in previous years. He's moving up to #1 in a lot of people's minds at least partially because the guys who were ahead of him before had worse years this year.

I really don't see any basis for thinking Howard's performance is significantly more "empty" than it had been in previous years. He's largely doing his same thing, but doing so with a touch more assertiveness over the last few months of the season.

Post #117 » by **Doctor MJ** » Wed May 18, 2011 8:26 pm

Also just wanted to say: As much as I find the battle for #1 to be weak this year, the battle for being in the top 5 is pretty strong. We've really got 6 worthy candidates - 7 if you're high enough on Paul.

Post #118 » by **alucryts** » Wed May 18, 2011 8:48 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
alucryts wrote:thats my point of view with dwight. the magic's make up has changed to allow dwight to "get his" in the sense that defenses play him 1v1. that 1v1 is inflating his offensive stats. if any of rose, lebron, wade, dirk, or durant were strictly played 1v1, they would also see huge jumps in stats, inflating their impact just the same.

its like me playing 1v1 vs a 6th grader and me playing 1v1 vs someone my age and athleticism. im going to look like a god vs the 6th grader and be much more in check vs they later. he played vs a defense designed to let him get his, inflating his stats above what they would be on a playoff team that advances.

You're certainly entitled to your vote here (and I have blocked votes before, there's nothing wrong with yours), but I don't really get your thinking.

Dwight's scoring numbers aren't ridiculously different than they had been in previous years. In general his stats are in about the same ballpark as they were in previous years. He's moving up to #1 in a lot of people's minds at least partially because the guys who were ahead of him before had worse years this year.

I really don't see any basis for thinking Howard's performance is significantly more "empty" than it had been in previous years. He's largely doing his same thing, but doing so with a touch more assertiveness over the last few months of the season.

the only really inflated stats i see are the playoffs in his 70% ts% in the 6 games vs the hawks. he has opened his arsenal this year for sure.

like i said, i dont think howard is going to be left out of my top 5 at the end. i have to see how and why the other 5 exit the playoffs. chances are more than 1 of the top 5 are going to have something unflattering about their exits. rose's would prolly be continued poor shooting, durant's would be likely related to russ, etc. with how heavily i weight playoffs, the fact that howard is the only guy thats been knocked out gives him an unfair amount of negative right now. lebron and wade are at the top right now but with an exit vs the bulls that could change. with the playoffs still basically only half over, the sample size is tiny and has a lot of variance involved. guys shouldnt take my rankings right now to resemble anything of what they might look like at the end. it just boils down to i do not give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to him only having limited playing time due to his crap team this year. i think if i had to project i could see him ending up top 4.

nonemus · Post #119 » by **nonemus** » Wed May 18, 2011 8:51 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
nonemus wrote:Inflated? There's no such thing as inflated stats (apart from pace, minutes). They are what they are, All numbers have the same god damn value.

Not getting into whether the numbers in question are inflated but: All numbers are not worth the same amount because those numbers are only approximations of actual value contributed. It is possible to play in systems that have inflated or deflated stats.

+ 1

True, the context definitely has to be taken into consideration. I was alluding to the argument that a player "plays for the stats" or "puts up useless stats" when his team loses. (IE, think Kevin Love this year. Most fans think that he put up useless stats)

ronnymac2 · Post #120 » by **ronnymac2** » Wed May 18, 2011 8:53 pm

Nowitzki was unreal, man. Unreal. I kept waiting for a crucial miss in the fourth that would lead to a fast break 3-pointer by Durant that would doom Dallas and break their confidence. Instead, Nowitzki flourished. Amazing.

Regarding how people 10 years from now will remember the season:

I'm not sure how a guy who wins his third straight DPOY AND has his coming out year as a scorer shouldn't be remembered. That's historic stuff right there.