2011 DRAFT blather goes here. Part 3...

[pancakes3]

fun fact about vesely? you mean besides the fact he's all of 21 years old? he averages more fouls than d-boards. in fact, in 2009 euroleague pace adjust? trb/g = pf/g = 7.1

but yeah. i'm sure he's worth a top 10 pick while guys like faried flounder in the mid-teens.

[popper]

I'm starting to like the idea of this draft just being a culture and defensive shift. If we can't get a two way, all-star caliber player via a decent trade up then I think we should avoid a "best player available" mentality by going with a Vesley or a Valanciunas.

Under such a scenario I'd look towards Leonard/Faired, Bismack/Singleton, Leonard/Singleton and Kyle Singler with the second rounder.

Under such a situation you've at least done a fantastic job of changing the overall "feel" of the club and can send the message to Blatche and McGee to play smart and become pros or get out. Go with a zero tolerance mindset next year and look to trade Blatche/McGee for 2012 picks before the deadline if they don't pan out.

End up getting a robin for Wall with the fantastic 2012 draft and hope to appeal to free agent prospects with the new culture and with a near expiring Shard contract to dangle for sign and trades.

I agree completely. Your draft combos are exactly what this team needs.

[Illuminaire]

I would love Leonard/Faried.

DO want.

[eltacoman]

Could This be Possible ????!!!!!

McGee + Dray + 32nd for DWill Min Trade

6th + 18th + Seraphin for Kanter Uta Trade

Buy a Pick in Mid round for Singleton

Build off this CORE
Wall
NY / Crawford
Williams
Singleton / Booker
Kanter

To Get A Core of Wall Kanter Williams i would add in Crawford and Booker in the trades to get a chance to build off those 3 guys and our 2012 pick

2012 WOw Wall NY Barns Williams Kanter would be Crazy Fun

What Ever Goes Down GO WIZARDZ!!!!

[Dat2U]

Leonard just doesn't standout to me. Yes, he can play in the NBA and even might do well for himself as a energetic role player but he just doesn't strike me as BPA material with our pick. He just seems like a reach IMO. Every athletic small forward with a limited skill set isn't going to develop into Shawn Marion. Nor is pairing such a player with Wall an ideal situation. There's gotta be a better option than taking Kawhi Leonard with the 6th pick.

[Illuminaire]

The big thing that keeps bringing me back to Leonard is his rebounding. It's pretty sick, going by the numbers. I'm going to try to find more game film on him tomorrow, but his college production in several core areas is rock friggin' solid.

Kawhi has a position. He has a definite NBA skill. He has no serious weakness that cannot be fixed by good coaching and hard work. He doesn't need to be Marion... he could be a taller, better rebounding Caron Butler and be a *very* good NBA player.

[dangermouse]

Leonard/Faried and i'd call that a successful draft. We can go after an elite two-way type next draft, and maybe some FA's will want in with Wall by then.

[Hoopalotta]

From the Hoopsworld Wiretap:

Teams today aren’t just looking to take advantage of the rules. There’s also a notable lack of quality big men coming into the league.

“We’re devoid of having centers,’’ O’Connor said. “Every time you list a big guy now, you’re listing guys who are 6-8, 6-9, 6-9½. You’re never listing 7-footers. I know I’m dating myself, but where are the Bill Cartwrights and the Zelmo Beattys? Everyone talks about how you can’t play big guys these days. I think you can. But where are they?’’

I have an oddball theory - the earlier generations of players got wealthy and then married petite and supple women with narrow hips who provide very poor "plow-pulling" genetic stock. Doesn't it always seem like the second generation players are smaller than their fathers?

[Hoopalotta]

I'm probably the only one, but I've got a better feeling about Valentine than Kanter and would consider moving up to get him.

I don't know exactly were we'd have to move as he might well be there at 5 with the Raptors not feeling comfortable with a stash pick, but I'd definitely look into it if the incentive is modest (of course there's always the chance of getting played by the Raps if we telegraph this idea).

We need some more solid info on Biyombo's actual age as it's a huge swing in the evaluation if he's 18 versus 23, but to my thinking, that has a great impact on how attractive staying at 6 is. Leonard in a tradeback sounds pretty good, but at 6 I'm not too pleased.

A lot of the projections of Valentine seem to have him marked as a power forward going back a few years, but I think we're eventually looking at a legit, long armed 7 footer in the 255 range with respectable, though not noteworthy, mobility. He's filled out to a good degree when comparing the recent footage against the old. He does not float well on defense away from the hoop with a certain floppy-legged syndrome, but his reaction speed looks to be up to par so I think it's fixable.

It's a mystery as to how well he shoots in a twin-towers set-up with McGee, but there is reason to believe he has some tools not yet seen in games there based on his FT shooting (looks like 95 of 114 on the year as a composite of all leagues). He's been an absolute beast on the boards of late with about 17 per 40 during the 6-game 'Top 16/pre-playoff' stretch of the Euroleague circuit. That's having just turned 19 and playing against grown men.

Here's the Lietuvos Rytas homepage link to the scores

http://bc.lrytas.lt/index.php?option=co ... 12&lang=en

You hit a game link and sometimes there'll be a highlight video as well as a brief recap in English.

Here's stats from the Lithuanian League:
http://www.lkl.lt/en/player/jonas-valanciunas/

Stats from the Baltic Leage (only 4 games):
http://www.bbl.net/index.php/b19sYW5nPW ... ZwPTEyNjE=

Stats from the Euroleague:
http://www.euroleague.net/competition/p ... code=e2010

[KayAllTheWaay]

Valancuinas is basically Omer Asik with worse defense. Val is younger and will develop nicely on defense. His ceiling should be the same, that Asiks is.
They have very similar european stats.

Kanter may not become the defender Val will, but he still will be a good defender and he is lightyears ahead of Val on offense. That is not going to change very soon.

In the end, Kanter will always have more impact on a team than Val.

Kanter has All-Star Potential, Val does not.

[verbal8]

From the Hoopsworld Wiretap:

Teams today aren’t just looking to take advantage of the rules. There’s also a notable lack of quality big men coming into the league.

“We’re devoid of having centers,’’ O’Connor said. “Every time you list a big guy now, you’re listing guys who are 6-8, 6-9, 6-9½. You’re never listing 7-footers. I know I’m dating myself, but where are the Bill Cartwrights and the Zelmo Beattys? Everyone talks about how you can’t play big guys these days. I think you can. But where are they?’’

I have an oddball theory - the earlier generations of players got wealthy and then married petite and supple women with narrow hips who provide very poor "plow-pulling" genetic stock. Doesn't it always seem like the second generation players are smaller than their fathers?

I don't think this would be significant. I think the shorter sons is mainly a regression to the mean. It takes a couple of few genetic flukes(athleticism and height) to produce a potential NBA player. So it would be rather shocking for any family to produce them consistently.

Due to the "internationalization" of basketball, I think the pool of potential 7 footers is actually far bigger than it was in the "good old days". I think the athleticism and skill of the 6-8 to 6-9 guys has improved to a point where they are far more effective than a stiff 7 footer. Also I bet a lot of these 6-8/6-9 guys likely have standing reaches more typical of a 7 footer.

[Ruzious]

Valancuinas is basically Omer Asik with worse defense. Val is younger and will develop nicely on defense. His ceiling should be the same, that Asiks is.
They have very similar european stats.

Kanter may not become the defender Val will, but he still will be a good defender and he is lightyears ahead of Val on offense. That is not going to change very soon.

In the end, Kanter will always have more impact on a team than Val.

Kanter has All-Star Potential, Val does not.

In baseball scouting of HS players, there's a word often used - projectable - which means the player hasn't filled out yet and has room to grow physically and skill-wise, so you project how that's going to affect him going forward - usually in a positive manner. I think that applies a lot more to Val than any player I can think of. Hoopa addressed this - seeing that the more recent footage does show he looks a lot stronger now than a year ago, and he will be a big strong 7 footer and already has tremendous length. The rebounding numbers have gone from very good to outstanding. All that extra work he's put into his shooting at a young age has built a foundation that he can grow on. So what you see now - which is a somewhat signigicant improvement - still isn't what you're going to see 2 years from now.

Kanter's the opposite - he's basically not projectable. He filled out probably at least a year ago. His skills are plain to see. WYSIWYG - what you see is what you get.

[Hoopalotta]

Valancuinas is basically Omer Asik with worse defense. Val is younger and will develop nicely on defense. His ceiling should be the same, that Asiks is.
They have very similar european stats.

Kanter may not become the defender Val will, but he still will be a good defender and he is lightyears ahead of Val on offense. That is not going to change very soon.

In the end, Kanter will always have more impact on a team than Val.

Kanter has All-Star Potential, Val does not.

You're basing your Kanter certitude on what exactly? Given that we're talking about a guy who's played about one meaningful game in the course of two years, it would seem that Kanter's trajectory is open to a wide gamut of interpretations. He could easily end up being that dude who grew into his body before his peers with his upside being more cloudy.

As to Asik-Valentine, I can see the comparison but I'm viewing Valentine as being more more fluid and having some legit potential as a shooter and PNR threat. Asik's a nice player, but his motions strike me as being boxy and a bit stiff in the back. You're also talking about a five and a half year age discrepancy and not a completely straight comparison between their Euroleague play (looks to me like Asik was turning 21 during his first "real" Euroleague season while Val was turning 19).

But Asik brings a lot of the things you look for from the pivot and would also be a lot more viable as a core piece if he wasn't so foul prone and could hit free throws at 88% instead of 50%. I'm not really sure how good his hands are, but Val can catch, so that opens up a nice scoring outlet. Admittedly, right now, Jonas is basically a disaster as far as getting hit with fouls, so I can see questions there.

Still, supreme certitude strikes me as being well out of touch with the parameters here. A hell of a lot of different things could end up unfolding in terms of career arcs.

[Hoopalotta]

From the Hoopsworld Wiretap:

Teams today aren’t just looking to take advantage of the rules. There’s also a notable lack of quality big men coming into the league.

“We’re devoid of having centers,’’ O’Connor said. “Every time you list a big guy now, you’re listing guys who are 6-8, 6-9, 6-9½. You’re never listing 7-footers. I know I’m dating myself, but where are the Bill Cartwrights and the Zelmo Beattys? Everyone talks about how you can’t play big guys these days. I think you can. But where are they?’’

I have an oddball theory - the earlier generations of players got wealthy and then married petite and supple women with narrow hips who provide very poor "plow-pulling" genetic stock. Doesn't it always seem like the second generation players are smaller than their fathers?

I don't think this would be significant. I think the shorter sons is mainly a regression to the mean. It takes a couple of few genetic flukes(athleticism and height) to produce a potential NBA player. So it would be rather shocking for any family to produce them consistently.

Due to the "internationalization" of basketball, I think the pool of potential 7 footers is actually far bigger than it was in the "good old days". I think the athleticism and skill of the 6-8 to 6-9 guys has improved to a point where they are far more effective than a stiff 7 footer. Also I bet a lot of these 6-8/6-9 guys likely have standing reaches more typical of a 7 footer.

Well, I offer a hypothesis on this one more than anything.

Looking at Shaq's ex-wife, though, I'm having a hard time seeing his kids being low box-rim breakers. It seems a pattern, but we need better epistemology going. For whatever reason, the divergence between the centers of today and the 90's is striking.

[Hoopalotta]

WojYahooNBA Just left long day and night in hotel lobby at Pre-Draft camp, where GM says Jimmer Fredette was "most impressive interview I've ever done."

Interesting - he could be there at 18.

Kanter's interview was also supposed to be real good according to Givony.

Logistics scoop:

chadfordinsider Heading back over to @ATTACKATHLETICS for NBA Draft Combine. ESPNU & ESPN3 will televise the 2nd day of the Combine today at 10 am ET

Are the measurements going up today? Maybe.

Am I a major dork for asking? Yes.

[KayAllTheWaay]

You're basing your Kanter certitude on what exactly? Given that we're talking about a guy who's played about one meaningful game in the course of two years, it would seem that Kanter's trajectory is open to a wide gamut of interpretations. He could easily end up being that dude who grew into his body before his peers with his upside being more cloudy.

As to Asik-Valentine, I can see the comparison but I'm viewing Valentine as being more more fluid and having some legit potential as a shooter and PNR threat. Asik's a nice player, but his motions strike me as being boxy and a bit stiff in the back. You're also talking about a five and a half year age discrepancy and not a completely straight comparison between their Euroleague play (looks to me like Asik was turning 21 during his first "real" Euroleague season while Val was turning 19).

But Asik brings a lot of the things you look for from the pivot and would also be a lot more viable as a core piece if he wasn't so foul prone and could hit free throws at 88% instead of 50%. I'm not really sure how good his hands are, but Val can catch, so that opens up a nice scoring outlet. Admittedly, right now, Jonas is basically a disaster as far as getting hit with fouls, so I can see questions there.

Still, supreme certitude strikes me as being well out of touch with the parameters here. A hell of a lot of different things could end up unfolding in terms of career arcs.

I'm basing it on the videos i see. You are right, that Kanter didn't play competitive basketball in long time, and that he was more developed than the kids his age. That helped him to dominate in almost every game he played till today.
The videos we see from him are showing, that he has real talent. He can shoot, he has good footwork, and he seems to have a high basketball iq.
That sounds a lot like Milicic pre-draft. But Milicic himself said, that he made the mistake, not really working hard, when he was in Detroit. Kanter basically had a year off, and worked his butt off, which shows, that he won't have the same attitude Milicic had at that time.

Val is a very nice player. I think his freethrow shooting is very good too.
Every young player, who is that tall will have foul problem, thats nothing he won't learn.
I just don't see Val developing an offensive game other than, well, dunking.
If he gets stronger, he has the chance to be a defensive force, but as i said, i think he will be a one way center.
While Vals ceiling is to be a better defender, he won't ever be a gamechanger on offense, which Kanter could be, i believe.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

Kanter is Impressing no one in the workouts. I'm starting to sour on him

I hope Cleveland, Minny, Utah, and Toronto are saying the SAME thing.

[verbal8]

While Vals ceiling is to be a better defender, he won't ever be a gamechanger on offense, which Kanter could be, i believe.

I don't see Kanter as a potential All-NBA player, however I see him as a great fit for the Wizards. If the Wizards get an in-his-prime Kurt Thomas or Brad Miller from him, it would be a great pick. I think his range and skill will make things easier for Wall. I can also see him working well paired with McGee.

[Hoopalotta]

I'm basing it on the videos i see. You are right, that Kanter didn't play competitive basketball in long time, and that he was more developed than the kids his age. That helped him to dominate in almost every game he played till today.
The videos we see from him are showing, that he has real talent. He can shoot, he has good footwork, and he seems to have a high basketball iq.
That sounds a lot like Milicic pre-draft. But Milicic himself said, that he made the mistake, not really working hard, when he was in Detroit. Kanter basically had a year off, and worked his butt off, which shows, that he won't have the same attitude Milicic had at that time.

Val is a very nice player. I think his freethrow shooting is very good too.
Every young player, who is that tall will have foul problem, thats nothing he won't learn.
I just don't see Val developing an offensive game other than, well, dunking.
If he gets stronger, he has the chance to be a defensive force, but as i said, i think he will be a one way center.
While Vals ceiling is to be a better defender, he won't ever be a gamechanger on offense, which Kanter could be, i believe.

Kanter strikes me as being a center rather than a power forward, but that's about the strongest statement I'd make on him - it's not like I'm actually against our getting him, especially if he measures out big.

I agree he looks like an instinctive and smooth scorer in the post and should be a solid rebounder, it's just that I'm high on Valentine's ability to add to where he's at, as Ruz was mentioning. As to his being a one-way player, it's possible, but his PRN and even PNP potential seems really high with that pure shooting stroke and aggressiveness. More of a flow of the game thing as Kanter's obviously more the go-to option who can create his own opportunities.

[Ruzious]

Kay, you're preaching to the choir on Kanter. I'd pick him #1 in the draft. But after watching highlights of his last 2 games, Val is really moving up on the developmental cycle faster and better than I thought. He's learning to use his phenominal length, and he's becoming a lot more aggressive and confident. You know... he has a very good touch, because before he filled out, he shot a tremendously high %, and he's a 90% foul shooter. It's just a matter of time before he expands his shooting range on FG's. With the extra size, aggression, and confidence, he can dunk on anyone now. He has Javale McGee type length. There are only a handful of players in the world that long, and now - we're seeing the body fill out to the frame. He's grounded in fundamentals and will continue to improve on them, because he's a disciplined hard worker. He's not a great smooth athlete, but neither was The Big Fundamental. Kanter is the better player, but Val has better potential, imo, and it's starting to show.