2011 DRAFT blather goes here. Part 3...

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

so sick of people linking us in mock drafts to Vesley (the latest being Sam Amick at cnnsi.com) due to his offense complimenting or "fitting nicely" with Wall. Unless he develops a jumper before the draft he's one of the LAST players I want playing one the court with Wall. No jumper = people drifting in toward the paint making Wall's life miserable.

This time of year, with the terrible teams no non-fan would want to watch at the top of the lottery and the news, it becomes apparent what "experts" don't actually watch enough basketball...

[pcbothwel]

^^^ Not that it matters, but comparing J. Tyler's measurments with Webbers
Tyler:
6'9 w/o shoes
262 lbs
7'5 wingspan
9'2.5 reach

Webber
6'9 w/o shoes
265 lbs
7'3.5 wingspan
Not measured, but = 9'2 or higher

Webber is basically the same. Seems like the perfect size and length for a two way PF. Webber was also as big/long or bigger/longer than Ed Davis, Okafor, Collison, Shawn Kemp, Favors, Amare, etc.
I dont see how Webber was undersized. Just sayin

[WizarDynasty]

^^^ Not that it matters, but comparing J. Tyler's measurments with Webbers
Tyler:
6'9 w/o shoes
262 lbs
7'5 wingspan
9'2.5 reach

Webber
6'9 w/o shoes
265 lbs
7'3.5 wingspan
Not measured, but = 9'2 or higher

Webber is basically the same. Seems like the perfect size and length for a two way PF. Webber was also as big/long or bigger/longer than Ed Davis, Okafor, Collison, Shawn Kemp, Favors, Amare, etc.
I dont see how Webber was undersized. Just sayin

Size is the most important for 4's and 5's. But u can't use that size efficiently if you aren't agile.

Wingspan is more important for wing players than it is 4's and 5's. Standing reach more important for bigs. I would have been nice to know Webber's standing reach and his agility scores. Those two number would probably tell why Webber was never consider defensive player of the year.

I would like to see Tyler's agility scores for sure to get sense of his defensive potential.

[The Consiglieri]

I should have specified. It's not in order of rank. It's just listed in the order from C to PG.

Brandon Knight wouldn't be a huge priority for us considering we've already got John Wall. He might be the fifth best propsect but I probably would draft Biyombo, Faried or Singleton instead of Knight b/c they fill more of a need and Knight isn't that superior of a prospect sense I have all of them on the same tier.

Kemba Walker is a little different. I clearly think he's a better talent than the other players we'd be looking at. If Kanter is gone and Walker is still there, then Walker would easily be my choice regardless of his position.

I'm completely with you on this one. If kanter is gone and walker is on the board, I'd draft him. At this point, we need assets. He might blow up, he might not. But he'll be a solid pro.

Because we have the 18th pick, we essentially have a mulligan.

If we take Kemba at six, we'll likely be able to choose from Faried, Singleton, Williams and Hamilton and thus fill a more pressing need.

SOme thoughts, first, I agree on Kemba. It would really suck to have Kemba sitting at 6 because he's the one guy i really really like, that we really, really don't need. Except for one problem, i have a really, really, really hard time imagining him failing. Sometimes success in college doesnt translate, hell a lot of the time doesnt translate, but if the guy has the tools and the fire, and the work habits, it can. As long as the athleticism is there. I believe Kemba has all of that. The way he took UCONN on his back, and in every single clutch do or die moment he never failed to demand the moment and go all Sparta on people's arses so to speak. He came up big when moments most demanded it of him. Time and again, when the chips were down, he was utterly fearless, and utterly confident that he would, not just could, make the difference. So yeah, i think there's a place for that on this team. This team needs fearless, 100% confident , with "earned esteem" not unearned (looking at you Blatche, and you McGee) esteem players seeing serious minutes and changing the culture of this team. I think Kemba could do that. I also think that's why Kemba is going to come off the board at pick 3. But yeah, we could definitely use him and it would suck to have another point guard who wed move elsewhere instad of filling another postion with talent, but if the choice was Kemba, or a euro with a weak mentality, who lacked toughness I know which way I'd be inclined to go.

For the record I don't believe for a second that having 18 gives us a mulligan on 6. While 18 has oddly been a rather successful slot in recent years for finding talent (Bledsoe, Lawson, J. McGee, and back to back JR Smith and David West between '02 and '03), overall, between 2010 and 2006, a 5 year stretch, the relative success rate of guys (a b.s. eye test, rather than actual statistical analysis admittedly) was 22%, 11 out of 50, and 2001-2005, granted a substantially long time ago, in terms of development and a different league at the time since high schoolers were included back then, the success rate between slot 11 and 20 was still only 6 out of 50, or a 12% success rate. Averaged out its 17%, but i do think the more recent rate is a more reliable arbiter in terms of success rate, without high school players, with players getting at least a little borderline professional coaching in college, according to my very unreliable, generatlized eye test evals, the success rate basically improved by around 10%. So that's the good news, as well as the bizarre recent run of success at the 18 slot, however, the fact remains, players passing the eye test between 11 and 20, do so at a rate of about 1 out of every 5. Is that good enough for a mulligan at slot 6? Not to me. Our chances of getting a legit player that can help at 18 if league average is only about 5% better than our chances of landing the freaking #1 overall pick this past lottery. Not good.

I will say that I love most of the guys that could be considered around 18. I think there are a load of players that could help there. Jordan Williams, Tyler Honeycutt, Markief Morris, Klay Thompson, Tobias Harris, and everyone's favorites, Chris Singleton and/or Kenneth Faried. At least half of these guys are gonna be busts, flat out busts, but I still think we can shoot for the stars with Singleton, Faried, Honeycutt, and Harris' upside, or we can get role players in Klay, or Markief Morris, or we can get a guy that fits both bills in Jordan Williams. The most likely to bust to me are Harris, Morris, Honeycutt, and probably one of Singleton or Faried. That's a lot, but that's a risk at 18 regardless, we'll have a choice, but to me, compared to past years, i actually like the value there, i think in terms of risk, versus potential upside, and chances of being at minimum a role player, slot 18 is only probably 10% less likely to produce positive results than freaking 6. However, i remain in disagreement with the mulligan idea. The success rate of 18 historically tells us that we can't rely on 18 to compensate for risks at 6. Both picks are risks. Huge risks. The best we can do is simply shoot for the stars and try to get the guys most likely to help us. Dont go role players, just get the guys most likely to help.

1. Irving
2. Williams
3. Kantner
4. K. Walker
5. B. Knight
6. B. Biyombo
7. Johnny V
8. J. Vesely

18:
18.1 Jordan Hamilton-Like him best in terms of upside and raw ability
18.2 T. Thompson-Really twisted in knots with this guy, think he might be great, not sure.
18.3 C. Singleton-I dont think its possible he'll fail, i just think he's either gonna be great or a D Stopper
18.4 K. Faried-I think he has the hunger and desire to be a legit role player with upside and loads of energey
18.5 T. Honeycutt for the upside, but i also think that he should be at least pretty good.
18.6 Marcus Morris-hes gonna contribute, and at minimum he should be solid.
18.7 Markief Morris-legit contributor, have a hard time seeing him any worse than a solid big man, just not great or good.
18.8 Tobias Harris lots of upside, lots of bust potential.
18.9 David Bertans-ive only read about him, but best shooting big guy since Dirk? That's pretty awesome.

[Benjammin]

It's frankly ridiculous to argue that Chris Webber wasn't incredibly gifted to play outstanding defense if he so chose. Later in his career with his injuries is another story. Chris had some of the best hands I've ever seen, was a gifted passer and finisher, but his career was ultimately mildly disappointing. Perhaps if things had not come so easily so early for him he would have developed more completely. As it is, he certainly was an enjoyable and interesting player to watch.

[pcbothwel]

As to what Red mentioned earlier about a trade with the Bobcats to #9 if the draft shakes out with Irving, Williams, Kanter, Knight, Valanciunas going into the top 5. I think that could really benefit us in the long run and here is how.
At 9 we are bound to see Leonard, Biyombo, or Vesely there. If EG loves one, take them. If not, trade that pick for future pick and take players like Faried, Honeycutt, Singleton, Harris, etc. at 18, 19, and 34.
Remember when the Heat tried to move Beasley one of the biggest hurdles was not that he was a dumb ass, but that he cost over 5 mil. With the drop off in salary going into the late teens, it will be easier to consolodate the talent for a trade later on for a another player.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I think my favorite draft scenario is Kanter, Singleton, Hansbrough.

I love the motor on all these guys. We secure a low post scorer and rebounder, a lock down defender, and a steady backup pg. There's alot to like about all these guys, and I think they all fit in with our identity and attitude makeover.

At Center we'd have Kanter, McGee, Seraphin, Blatche can play here also, and possibly keep Yi and/or N'Diaye.

At PF we'd have Blatche, Kanter, Booker, Lewis can play here too.

At SF Lewis, Singleton, I'd like to keep Mo Evans, and Young can go here also. Maybe bring back Jeffers.

SG Young and Crawford, Evans. PG Wall, Hansbrough, and Crawford.



We could start Kanter, backed by McGee, Blatche, backed by Book, Lewis backed by Singleton, Young, backed by Crawford, Wall backed by Hansbrough.

We could go McGee, Kanter, Lewis, Young, Wall with Blatche/Crawford off the bench as 6th men.

With Kanter, Blatche, Lewis, Young, Wall... we have really good overall size and rebounding, and offense. All five can score. We have nice D off the bench with McGee, Seraphin, Booker, Singleton, and some good offense/shooting with Yi, Evans, Crawford, Hansbrough.

McGee, Seraphin, Yi, N'Diaye, Kanter, Blatche, Booker, Lewis, Singleton, Evans, Jeffers, Young, Crawford, Hansbrough, Wall, would be a full 15 man roster.

[Nivek]

I'm also puzzled by how being compared to Chris Webber has become somehow a bad thing. He was a 5-time All-NBAer, and a Hall of Fame player. Somewhere along the line, folks became more focused on his faults -- which he certainly had. But, he rebounded well for his position. He was possibly the best passing PF in history. He blocked a decent number of shots. Great defender? No, but at his peak in Sacramento, he was among the better defenders at his position, and his team ranked in the top 10 defensively 4 straight seasons, including 2nd overall one season. He was one bizarrely officiated game from making the NBA Finals.

His overall offensive efficiency was lower than it should have been given his ability. But, anyone in this draft should be ecstatic with being compared to Webber. The Wizards should be so lucky to get someone who can play like Webber did.

[closg00]

Givony on today's Hoopsworld chat:

Wiz guy in :
If the Wizards end up with Kanter, does he fit better with McGee or Blatche?

Jonathan Givony:
Probably with Blatche, because I don't see either Kanter or McGee being able to guard power forwards in the NBA. I don't necessarily think Blatche guards anyone anyway, but he can probably move his feet better on the perimeter (theoretically) more than Kanter or McGee.

max in ohio:
I've recently read that the Cavs have Valanciunas (or like we in cleveland call him Big V) higher on their board than Kanter. Have you gotten the same vibe?

Jonathan Givony:
Yes. Directly from Kanter's camp in fact to me Valanciunas would be a terrific fit in cleveland next to Irving. he could play in a similar role like Tyson Chandler did in New Orleans. your thoughts?

Tony in akron:
to me Valanciunas would be a terrific fit in cleveland next to Irving. he could play in a similar role like Tyson Chandler did in New Orleans. your thoughts?

Jonathan Givony:
I agree 100%. Irving is the best pick and roll facilitator in this draft, and Valanciunas is the best pick and roll finisher. They could be a phenomenal duo

Intrigue, are the Cavs really this-high on JV?
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Chat.asp?CHAT ... z1NNxojY7x

[fishercob]

Givony on today's Hoopsworld chat:

Wiz guy in :
If the Wizards end up with Kanter, does he fit better with McGee or Blatche?

Jonathan Givony:
Probably with Blatche, because I don't see either Kanter or McGee being able to guard power forwards in the NBA. I don't necessarily think Blatche guards anyone anyway, but he can probably move his feet better on the perimeter (theoretically) more than Kanter or McGee.

max in ohio:
I've recently read that the Cavs have Valanciunas (or like we in cleveland call him Big V) higher on their board than Kanter. Have you gotten the same vibe?

Jonathan Givony:
Yes. Directly from Kanter's camp in fact to me Valanciunas would be a terrific fit in cleveland next to Irving. he could play in a similar role like Tyson Chandler did in New Orleans. your thoughts?

Tony in akron:
to me Valanciunas would be a terrific fit in cleveland next to Irving. he could play in a similar role like Tyson Chandler did in New Orleans. your thoughts?

Jonathan Givony:
I agree 100%. Irving is the best pick and roll facilitator in this draft, and Valanciunas is the best pick and roll finisher. They could be a phenomenal duo

Intrigue, are the Cavs really this-high on JV?
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Chat.asp?CHAT ... z1NNxojY7x

Score one for Hoopalotta!

[Ruzious]

It's frankly ridiculous to argue that Chris Webber wasn't incredibly gifted to play outstanding defense if he so chose. Later in his career with his injuries is another story. Chris had some of the best hands I've ever seen, was a gifted passer and finisher, but his career was ultimately mildly disappointing. Perhaps if things had not come so easily so early for him he would have developed more completely. As it is, he certainly was an enjoyable and interesting player to watch.

Yup, Webber was the most gifted college PF I've ever seen. It was like God decided to create the ideal PF, and it was him.

[jazzfan1971]

Webber was never a good defender. He never learned to bend his knees on defense. Seems like an odd thing to never learn, but, he liked to stay standing upright.

[closg00]

...and since some guys here like BB.

Stuart in Philadephia:
Jonathan, is Biyombo NBA-ready, i.e. will he be able to start on opening night (whenever that is)? If not, how close is he?

Jonathan Givony:
I think he's more ready than any of the other big men in this draft (http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/2011-Big-Men/), except for maybe Marcus Morris.

[LyricalRico]

Givony on today's Hoopsworld chat:

Wiz guy in :
If the Wizards end up with Kanter, does he fit better with McGee or Blatche?

Jonathan Givony:
Probably with Blatche, because I don't see either Kanter or McGee being able to guard power forwards in the NBA. I don't necessarily think Blatche guards anyone anyway, but he can probably move his feet better on the perimeter (theoretically) more than Kanter or McGee.

max in ohio:
I've recently read that the Cavs have Valanciunas (or like we in cleveland call him Big V) higher on their board than Kanter. Have you gotten the same vibe?

Jonathan Givony:
Yes. Directly from Kanter's camp in fact to me Valanciunas would be a terrific fit in cleveland next to Irving. he could play in a similar role like Tyson Chandler did in New Orleans. your thoughts?

Tony in akron:
to me Valanciunas would be a terrific fit in cleveland next to Irving. he could play in a similar role like Tyson Chandler did in New Orleans. your thoughts?

Jonathan Givony:
I agree 100%. Irving is the best pick and roll facilitator in this draft, and Valanciunas is the best pick and roll finisher. They could be a phenomenal duo

Intrigue, are the Cavs really this-high on JV?
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Chat.asp?CHAT ... z1NNxojY7x

Score one for Hoopalotta!

More importantly - does that change the perspective on drafting Kanter? If he can't guard PFs, and thus has to play center, what happens to McGee? The absolute worst case scenario is if they try to make it work and don't figure out until the trade deadline that it can't work. Then they are stuck having to get peanuts for McGee at the deadline.

Which is better: Drafting Kanter and trade McGee? Or going in a different direction with the pick and keeping McGee?

[FAH1223]

DRAFT KANTER and maybe trade McGee in package for a big player! But McGee off the bench would be nice

[fishercob]

Rico, there are 96 big man minutes available per night; I'd have no problem drafting Kanter if he turns out to be more of a C/PF than a PF/C.

If we draft Enes, there will be nights where he and McGee coexist just fine and nights when we'd want to have one of the court with Blatche or Booker.

If by some chance both McGee and Kanter develop and we end up with two productive promising pure centers, we'll be in great position to improve the team and deal from a position of strength. Everyone always needs a center.

[theboomking]

I don't think Kanter is going to be unable to guard PF's. I'd like to see his agility numbers, but Kanter actually seems to possess very good lateral quickness. He reminds me a bit of Demarcus Cousins in that he isn't an explosive vertical athlete, but is quite mobile.

Below is another JV pic from the main draft thread. JV already looks much better put together than JaVale. JV turned 19 in May. Based on his current body type and development curve, I would expect that he should be quite solidly put together by age 22 or 23.

This picture Valanciunas does not look very skinny

[Ruzious]

JV has grown and will continue to. If my recollection is right, JV is bigger now than Tim Duncan was at Wake Forest at the same age. I think they have basically the same frame.

[LyricalRico]

If by some chance both McGee and Kanter develop and we end up with two productive promising pure centers, we'll be in great position to improve the team and deal from a position of strength. Everyone always needs a center.

If McGee had more than one year left on his rookie deal, I would wholeheartedly agree with you. But if we end up at the end of next season and we still don't know what Kanter is, you're saying you'd still pay (and possibly overpay) to keep McGee becasue you can trade one of them down the road?

If so, I disagree with that in this particular instance because they team has so many other holes. Again, if this were another situation (where the team was solid everwhere else and was looking to fill their last hole at C) I'd agree with your strategy. But IMO this team can't afford to spend time and money figuring out which guy they want at one position when they have so many other needs.

[Induveca]

Obviously want Kanter, outside of him I'd take Biyombo after watching enough film.

Next idea? Draft Biyombo/Faried, then follow it up with a trade with Portland.

McGee/Seraphin/#34 for Batum/Fernandez/Barron

That leaves us with

Wall/Crawford
Young/Fernandez
Batum/Lewis
Blatche/Faried/Booker
Biyombo/Barron/Faried

Portland would consider it as they want a replacement for Camby, Gerald Wallace is their guy over Batum at this point.......and they get last year's #17, as well as a 2nd rounder. Biyombo and McGee can't co-exist, can't have your PF/C combo going for blocks all game long........and Seraphin seems to be less than we thought. With Wall/Biyombo/Faried/Crawford we have a ton of passion/hustle on the floor at all times. Our defense also improves immensely in theory with Batum/Biyombo/Faried.

I'd take the plunge, I don't see McGee's brain taking him much further. A lot of interchangeable parts on that squad. Lots of young talent, well worth the risk IMO.

That being said, I prefer to trade up and get Kanter, then draft Faried if we can hang on to our #18.