JonathanJoseph wrote:
Agree totally with your comments about Arenas and part of my desire to always add context to any analysis. Right now, Arenas is a bum and so it's easy to forget the positive qualities. Not too long ago, Deshawn Stevenson was the single worst player in the NBA and we had to give Haywood away to get Cuban to take on his contract. Similarly, Blatche had a mostly poor season and so it's easy for everyone to call him a bum too. Health and the right personnel situtation can do wonders for a player.
There is no doubt that Blatche has some major red flags and slicing and dicing the good and bad to the exact percentage of each seems slightly shortsighted to me. I am not arguing that the sample size is not small.
I am arguing that there IS a sample size. Despite what people seem to think, I do not think there is a long list of players who have put up those kind of numbers for even 10 games. Blatche's potential is substantial.
I'm actually checking on this 10 games thing. I'm curious to see if there's anything there. I can't think of a way to query the b-r database for this kind of thing, but Neil Paine (who writes the blog there) might know of something.
Personally, I believe that Blatche's talent is so substantial that his immaturity is hampering an already uphill climb to figure out how to harness that talent. Most players have to work hard. Blatche is both blessed and cursed to have it come so easily. It's not uncommon for people who grow up with a silver spoon in their mouth to have to learn what it means to work hard and this seems similar. When you can do everything, it's hard to learn what to focus on first and I have NO PROBLEM with it taking 100 games of rebuilding basketball to let him figure it out.
Here's where we part ways a bit. Most guys in the NBA had it "come easy" at least at some point in their basketball development. Generally speaking, the guys we see in the NBA were the best athletes in their areas at age 10, age 12, age 14, and so on. For some, that physical edge is gone in college. For others, they maintain until they hit the NBA. For freaks like Jordan or Lebron, the physical edge goes with age. Regardless, at some point the difference between scrub and starter, average and good, good and great is about the work a guy is willing to put in.
Blatche reached that point years ago. He's still there. Maybe he turns the corner this offseason. Maybe he finally figures it out. If I was running the team, I wouldn't expect it. It'd be great if he does it. I sorta think the catalyst for him "getting it" may actually be getting traded from the Wizards. If there's anything that finally gets him going.
Blatche's shortcomings are 100% mental and can be solved with maturity and leadership. When you combine his potential with his contract and age, the obvious conclusion is continued patience for at least another season. Trading a young player with rare potential after a bad season is the definition of penny-wise and pound foolish.
And here's why I disagree. He also has physical problems. They relate to the mental, but he lacks strength and stamina. If the mind changes, then presumably so will the body, but my point is that he still needs considerable work on the body. Also, it's no "a bad season." He's six seasons and ~8600 minutes into his career. I'm not basing my views on Blatche merely on what he's done lately. I'm basing it on his body of...well..."work" isn't quite the right word, but it'll have to do.
