Time Machine Draft

[PetrieUnderstudy]

With the draft coming up I wanted to see how successful Petrie's really been. Going back to 2005 when CWeb was traded and we should've started rebuilding, here's who we drafted and who we should have drafted.

2005 #25 Francisco Garcia vs #30 David Lee
2006 #19 Quincy Douby vs #21 Rajon Rondo
2007 #10 Spencer Hawes vs #48 Marc Gasol
2008 #12 Jason Thompson vs #24 Serge Ibaka
2008 #42 Sean Singletary vs #45 Goran Dragic
2008 #43 Patrick Ewing Jr vs #47 Bill Walker
2009 #4 Tyreke Evans (best pick)
2009 #23 Omri Casspi vs #26 Taj Gibson
2009 #31 Jeff Pendergraph (was traded for #38 Jon Brockman) vs #43 Marcus Thornton
2010 #5 DeMarcus Cousins (best pick)
2010 #33 Hassan Whiteside vs #39 Landry Fields

That's 11 draft picks and Petrie has drafted best player twice.

What could've been:

Rajon Rondo/Goran Dragic
Tyreke Evans/Marcus Thornton
Landry Fields/Bill Walker
David Lee/Serge Ibaka/Taj Gibson
Marc Gasol/DeMarcus Cousins

We praise Petrie and In Petrie We Trust but is this really that successful a draft history?

[PetrieUnderstudy]

Other guys passed up.

2009- Rodrigue Beaubois, Toney Douglas, Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, Jodie Meeks, Chase Budinger, AJ Price
2008- Roy Hibbert, Javale McGee, JJ Hickson, Ryan Anderson, Courtney Lee, Nicolas Batum, George Hill, DeAndre Jordan, Luc Mbah a Moute
2007- Thaddeus Young, Rodney Stuckey, Nick Young, Jared Dudley, Wilson Chandler, Rudy Fernandez, Aaron Brooks, Arron Afflalo, Carl Landry, Glen Davis, Josh McRoberts, Ramon Sessions
2006- Kyle Lowry, Daniel Gibson, Paul Millsap
2005- Brandon Bass, Ronny Turiaf, Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, Ryan Gomes, Marcin Gortat

[Sacramento_King]

With the draft coming up I wanted to see how successful Petrie's really been. Going back to 2005 when CWeb was traded and we should've started rebuilding, here's who we drafted and who we should have drafted.

2005 #25 Francisco Garcia vs #30 David Lee
2006 #19 Quincy Douby vs #21 Rajon Rondo
2007 #10 Spencer Hawes vs #48 Marc Gasol
2008 #12 Jason Thompson vs #24 Serge Ibaka
2008 #42 Sean Singletary vs #45 Goran Dragic
2008 #43 Patrick Ewing Jr vs #47 Bill Walker
2009 #4 Tyreke Evans (best pick)
2009 #23 Omri Casspi vs #26 Taj Gibson
2009 #31 Jeff Pendergraph (was traded for #38 Jon Brockman) vs #43 Marcus Thornton
2010 #5 DeMarcus Cousins (best pick)
2010 #33 Hassan Whiteside vs #39 Landry Fields

That's 11 draft picks and Petrie has drafted best player twice.

What could've been:

Rajon Rondo/Goran Dragic
Tyreke Evans/Marcus Thornton
Landry Fields/Bill Walker
David Lee/Serge Ibaka/Taj Gibson
Marc Gasol/DeMarcus Cousins

We praise Petrie and In Petrie We Trust but is this really that successful a draft history?

Hindsight being 20/20 and all. Omri can still be a very good player. Thompson is going to be a nice rotation big. Ibaka was missed by 11 other teams. Rondo was the major miss but he is definitely not a Petrie type player. I would still take his track record. If we acquired picks like Portland does or taken advantage of Phoenix cutting costs and selling picks, we'd be better off. Give him aggressive owners and plenty of picks and I'd take Petrie over most GM's.

[SacKingZZZ]

You can't really Monday morning quarterback that kind of stuff though. If you do it ends up being 59 chances to fail and 1 to pass. Overall, not too many obvious guys that he passed up on. Now, if he would have passed on Cousins for Udoh, or picked Rubio who may never play in the NBA over Evans, then you slam, but these picks? Nah.

As for the Thompson vs. Ibaka pick, I know quite a few people wanted McGee and honestly, I think passing up on McGee was a bigger mistake than Ibaka, especially if McGee reaches his potential.

Probably the biggest mistake Petrie has made draft wise was taking Gerald Wallace over Arenas who he promised he would take if he was still on the board.

[FINGER]

Nice post.
Draft is hard. I know.
But Petrie does embarassing moves oftentimes.
Sometimes, players who could not play on the d-league.
I hope he hits again right now.
Good luck from brazilian fans!

[deNIEd]

In 2007 and 2008 Petrie screwed up. Reports back then, said that Petrie really liked both Brooks and Ibaka. Both of which would have been much better picks than Hawes & Thompson.

[DickVitale]

This is crazy talk.
You've got to consider that there are 29 other teams in the draft.
Also things that should be taken in to consideration: Team needs. And the fact that some of the players on that list still have many years in the nba left - you could look at this same thing in 3-5 years and find out that some of these picks are better/worse than they are now.

But I think if you were to stack Geoffs picks side by side to the other 30 teams, realtive of the position we were in - and he'd be in the top 5 .. if not better.

[KingInExile]

It's easy to second guess with the benefit of hindsight. Too bad Petrie doesn't have a time machine or a mystic oracle that would allow him to see how players will perform years after the draft.

For the record, Douby is the only one on that list that I consider a blunder. The rest are all decent gambles given their draft position.

[Inc]

Hey OP, I'm curious to whom you think is a good GM and pull up their draft history.

[deNIEd]

Hey OP, I'm curious to whom you think is a good GM and pull up their draft history.

Well the two best GM's at drafting currently are...

RC Buford
---------------
2003 - #28 : Leandrinho Barbosa (#29 Josh Howard, #47 Mo Williams)
2004 - #28 : Beno Udrih (#31 Anderson Varejao, #44 Trevor Ariza)
2005 - #28 : Ian Mahinmi (#30 David Lee, #40 Monta Ellis)
2006 - No Pick
2007 - #28 : Tiago Splitter (#31 Carl Landry, #48 Marc Gasol)
2008 - #26 : George Hill (#35 DeAndre Jordan, #37 L. Mbah a Moute)
2009 - #37 : DeJuan Blair
2010 - #20 : James Anderson (#39 Landry Fieds)

Sam Presti
---------------
2007 - #2 : Kevin Durant
2007 - #5 : Jeff Green (#9 Joakim Noah, #23 Wilson Chandler, #48 Marc Gasol)
2007 - #31 : Carl Landry (#48 Marc Gasol)
2007 - #35 : Glen Davis (#48 Marc Gasol)
2008 - #4 : Russell Westbrook
2008 - #24: Serge Ibaka (#25 Nicolas Batum, #26 George Hill)
2008 - #32: Walter Sharpe (#35 DeAndre Jordan, #37 LM a Moute)
2009 - #3 : James Harden (#4 Tyreke Evans, #7 Steph Curry)
2009 - #25 : Rodrique Beaubois (#26 Taj Gibson)
2010 - #18 : Eric Bledsoe (#20 James Anderson)

[Bobo the King]

Hey OP, I'm curious to whom you think is a good GM and pull up their draft history.

Well the two best GM's at drafting currently are...

RC Buford
---------------
2003 - #28 : Leandrinho Barbosa (#29 Josh Howard, #47 Mo Williams)
2004 - #28 : Beno Udrih (#31 Anderson Varejao, #44 Trevor Ariza)
2005 - #28 : Ian Mahinmi (#30 David Lee, #40 Monta Ellis)
2006 - No Pick
2007 - #28 : Tiago Splitter (#31 Carl Landry, #48 Marc Gasol)
2008 - #26 : George Hill (#35 DeAndre Jordan, #37 L. Mbah a Moute)
2009 - #37 : DeJuan Blair
2010 - #20 : James Anderson (#39 Landry Fieds)

Sam Presti
---------------
2007 - #2 : Kevin Durant
2007 - #5 : Jeff Green (#9 Joakim Noah, #23 Wilson Chandler, #48 Marc Gasol)
2007 - #31 : Carl Landry (#48 Marc Gasol)
2007 - #35 : Glen Davis (#48 Marc Gasol)
2008 - #4 : Russell Westbrook
2008 - #24: Serge Ibaka (#25 Nicolas Batum, #26 George Hill)
2008 - #32: Walter Sharpe (#35 DeAndre Jordan, #37 LM a Moute)
2009 - #3 : James Harden (#4 Tyreke Evans, #7 Steph Curry)
2009 - #25 : Rodrique Beaubois (#26 Taj Gibson)
2010 - #18 : Eric Bledsoe (#20 James Anderson)

I don't disagree with RC Buford being one of the best GMs (but as I understand it, Popovich is actually pulling most of the strings there). I'd also like to point out that, strictly in terms of passing up on better talent, Buford has made a number of "mistakes" as well-- perhaps that was your point. Regarding Sam Presti, however, it is really a different story when you are drafting in the top-five range versus the late teens to mid-twenties range. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were no-brainers while there are significant missteps with Jeff Green and James Harden, especially if all you want to do is compare the player picked with "better" players who were picked later (ignoring team needs).

What I'm trying to say is that picking a good player with a low draft pick number doesn't indicate you're a good GM (Jim Paxson picked LeBron James but failed to construct a solid supporting cast) while picking a bad player with a low draft pick number counts against you a lot more than making the same mistake with a later pick (Joe Dumars picking Darko Milicic, anyone?).

Presti's real accomplishment has been acquiring a lot of draft picks (though that may have been his predecessor-- I don't care to check right now) and using them to assemble a diverse squad, jettisoning anyone who doesn't work. I'd say he's established himself so far as a tinkerer-- and a good one at that-- but only a decent drafter and no better than Petrie, in my opinion.

[dozencousins]

This topic pointing out who Petrie has passed on is one of the craziest post topics I have ever seen on this board here are several reasons.

1. Just about every GM has passed on several great players or solid role players they could have drafted year after year so thats not just a who Petrie passed on issue thats an all GM issue .

2. In some situations teams cant always draft the BPA in alot of cases you have to draft on positional need ( just see the T-WOLVES this year trying to trade the #2 pick as they feel they have Love & Beasley as starters though D.williams can play both forward positions he is not ideal for them ) Thus making it in this case not always the BPA gets drafted .

I am just going to name these 2 reasons as my main ones however I will say this if you were to reflect at the most recent drafts there as an example have not been to many really good Center positionaL players that came out the most recent ones that have actually been really good are D.howard & Y.ming & look at were Ming is at now ( injured & close to the point of being a non factor in the NBA .
My point is all teams need a Center & if we drafted always the BPA we may have 5 power porwards , 5 point guards , & 1 each shooting guard & small forward ( though this example may not be true the point is the same you might have a $hit load of to many at 1 position & not enough of others .
The BPA situation is not always the best .

If you look at the NFL as an example so many more great players were drafted very late in rounds ala Tom Brady & so many more so in that case because he was drafted in the 6th round all teams passed on him at least 5 x over & some 6 or more so then I guess there you have 30 GMS that are idiots all in the same year at the same time .

This is very unfair of throwing Petrie under the bus for this it seems this type of topic gets posted every year at least once & is one of the most unfair ones to do . If PETRIE was consistant in drafting bad or passing on to many of the obvious best than the point to this topic would be justified but given Petrie has overall done a fantasic job the point to this topic is unfair ....

[deNIEd]

Hey OP, I'm curious to whom you think is a good GM and pull up their draft history.

Well the two best GM's at drafting currently are...

RC Buford
---------------
2003 - #28 : Leandrinho Barbosa (#29 Josh Howard, #47 Mo Williams)
2004 - #28 : Beno Udrih (#31 Anderson Varejao, #44 Trevor Ariza)
2005 - #28 : Ian Mahinmi (#30 David Lee, #40 Monta Ellis)
2006 - No Pick
2007 - #28 : Tiago Splitter (#31 Carl Landry, #48 Marc Gasol)
2008 - #26 : George Hill (#35 DeAndre Jordan, #37 L. Mbah a Moute)
2009 - #37 : DeJuan Blair
2010 - #20 : James Anderson (#39 Landry Fieds)

I don't disagree with RC Buford being one of the best GMs (but as I understand it, Popovich is actually pulling most of the strings there). I'd also like to point out that, strictly in terms of passing up on better talent, Buford has made a number of "mistakes" as well-- perhaps that was your point. Regarding Sam Presti, however, it is really a different story when you are drafting in the top-five range versus the late teens to mid-twenties range. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were no-brainers while there are significant missteps with Jeff Green and James Harden, especially if all you want to do is compare the player picked with "better" players who were picked later (ignoring team needs).

Woah what? RC has made probably the least amount of drafting errors out of every GM ever. I don't know how much impact he has directly with calling draft picks, but SA in general has been one of the best drafting teams in the history of the NBA. How many 2nd round gems have they found?

Year after year, RC/SA has drafted essentially the best player all from the range of 25+.

Compare that to any other GM (including Petrie) and they don't even compare to RC.

[deNIEd]

This topic pointing out who Petrie has passed on is one of the craziest post topics I have ever seen on this board here are several reasons.

What is important is noting the type of player Petrie drafts. Petrie has actually surprised me the past two draft and didn't go for the traditional "Petrie" pick of a super well-rounded, offensive minded, passing team player. (Garcia, Hawes, Thompson, Douby, etc. etc.)

Both Cousins and Tyreke are not your typical Petrie picks, which is good in my mind. Petrie has recognized that what he did before was not working and simply not good enough and changed his approach.

[City of Trees]

What could've been:

Rajon Rondo/Goran Dragic
Tyreke Evans/Marcus Thornton
Landry Fields/Bill Walker
David Lee/Serge Ibaka/Taj Gibson
Marc Gasol/DeMarcus Cousins

We praise Petrie and In Petrie We Trust but is this really that successful a draft history?

You are looking at this all wrong.

Take Tyreke / Cousins out of that line up and you can say "what could have been" for almost every team in the league. This is pointless.

[deNIEd]

Also what is more important than missing out on a guy like Marc Gasol, is figuring out why we ended up not drafting some players we really considered/liked.

Ie Gilbert Arenas, Aaron Brooks, Serge Ibaka, Javal McGee, etc.

It's more important to figure out what went wrong, when we found the talent but just didn't pull the trigger.

[dozencousins]

This topic pointing out who Petrie has passed on is one of the craziest post topics I have ever seen on this board here are several reasons.

What is important is noting the type of player Petrie drafts. Petrie has actually surprised me the past two draft and didn't go for the traditional "Petrie" pick of a super well-rounded, offensive minded, passing team player. (Garcia, Hawes, Thompson, Douby, etc. etc.)

Both Cousins and Tyreke are not your typical Petrie picks, which is good in my mind. Petrie has recognized that what he did before was not working and simply not good enough and changed his approach.

IMO its not so much he changed his approach but the fact that he has had higher draft choices wich is a good thing. He shows that when he gets a high pick he picks the right guy . When he picked Tyreke ( B.Griffin wasn't available & the only player IMO that can even remotely be argued in reguards is S.Curry ) As for Cousins ( J.WALL wasnt available & IMO Cousins was the right pick he IMO just might be in the end the best player picked in that draft .

As KIE stated before the only real player I question that Petrie took was Douby that one sucked but aside from that Petrie has usually taken the right guy or a guy of whom you cant really fault him for taking in the end.

Petrie is notorious for taking wing players & players that can play multiple positions in alot of ways thats a great thing it creates alot of mismatches etc.

[City of Trees]

Also what is more important than missing out on a guy like Marc Gasol,

Every team passed on him at least once. Its because there IS NOT AN EXACT science to the draft. Average age of these kids drafted is young. Some tend to develop early and show promise, others are late bloomers and there was NO WAY to evaluate their talent would develop. Why do you think this is a Potential driven league now? Drafting is a roll of the dice, especially in the 2nd round. You cross your fingers praying you get lucky.

[deNIEd]

Also what is more important than missing out on a guy like Marc Gasol,

Every team passed on him at least once. Its because there IS NOT AN EXACT science to the draft. Average age of these kids drafted is young. Some tend to develop early and show promise, others are late bloomers and there was NO WAY to evaluate their talent would develop. Why do you think this is a Potential driven league now? Drafting is a roll of the dice, especially in the 2nd round. You cross your fingers praying you get lucky.

Anyone who blames a GM for passing up these rare second round talents is an idiot.

But like I said, what is questionable and more important, is why a GM chooses player X when he was an inch away from drafting player Y. What last minute thoughts changed the decision.



The one thing that I have disliked about Petrie when it comes to the draft is how passive he is compared to many other GM's. We rarely ever make a draft day trade or grab additional picks or maneuver around. We've all seen Petrie's ability to spot out quality talent in the draft. Players he doesn't draft but strongly considered, all show great potential or turn out to be solid players (McGee, Brooks, etc.) Because of this, why aren't we more active on draft day? If Petrie thinks Thompson, McGee, and Ibaka will all be good players in the league, why aren't we aggressively making moves to draft two of them instead of just one? I would much rather have Petrie spend the teams cap space assets and money on obtaining draft picks than have him make trades/sign free agents. Regardless of how you feel about Petrie, I don't think anyone can deny that his drafting record far exceeds his trading or free agency record.

[dozencousins]

Also what is more important than missing out on a guy like Marc Gasol,

Every team passed on him at least once. Its because there IS NOT AN EXACT science to the draft. Average age of these kids drafted is young. Some tend to develop early and show promise, others are late bloomers and there was NO WAY to evaluate their talent would develop. Why do you think this is a Potential driven league now? Drafting is a roll of the dice, especially in the 2nd round. You cross your fingers praying you get lucky.

Anyone who blames a GM for passing up these rare second round talents is an idiot.

But like I said, what is questionable and more important, is why a GM chooses player X when he was an inch away from drafting player Y. What last minute thoughts changed the decision.




The one thing that I have disliked about Petrie when it comes to the draft is how passive he is compared to many other GM's. We rarely ever make a draft day trade or grab additional picks or maneuver around. We've all seen Petrie's ability to spot out quality talent in the draft. Players he doesn't draft but strongly considered, all show great potential or turn out to be solid players (McGee, Brooks, etc.) Because of this, why aren't we more active on draft day? If Petrie thinks Thompson, McGee, and Ibaka will all be good players in the league, why aren't we aggressively making moves to draft two of them instead of just one? I would much rather have Petrie spend the teams cap space assets and money on obtaining draft picks than have him make trades/sign free agents. Regardless of how you feel about Petrie, I don't think anyone can deny that his drafting record far exceeds his trading or free agency record.

I do agree with the point you make about him not ever trying to move up in the draft or try to gain additional picks now or in the future to that extent I agree . I think he could do more but all in all Petrie is a great GM .

I would not be suprised if he deals Casspi for a 1st round pick this year or for a future 1st as well as possibly packaging him in a much bigger trade .
More than any other year I think Petrie will really shake things up . Trades etc. I think a genuine real blockbuster trade this year might happen . Its to bad that we didnt get Deron Williams before the trade deadline last year that would have been Huge !

Just for fun thought :

Kings trade Beno , CASSPI & this years or a future # 1 pick for CP3 & absorb the difference in salary