Andray Blatche - Resurgence Thread ( Merged )

[hands11]

Dray will want to stay here and play with Wall.

I expect he will put in a good off season. I also expect he will make some mental progress in understanding what he needs to do.

[J-Blaze]

Dray will want to stay here and play with Wall.

I expect he will put in a good off season. I also expect he will make some mental progress in understanding what he needs to do.

finally someone understands dray

[Induveca]

Pretty crazy lawsuit, end of the day........it really means nothing.

This type of stuff always happens. When agents get fired, these type of lawsuits pop up regularly. It's a no brainer to file a lawsuit for 15-30k in legal costs when you're likely guaranteed to recoup at least 300k in arbitration.

[hands11]

Agree totally with your comments about Arenas and part of my desire to always add context to any analysis. Right now, Arenas is a bum and so it's easy to forget the positive qualities. Not too long ago, Deshawn Stevenson was the single worst player in the NBA and we had to give Haywood away to get Cuban to take on his contract. Similarly, Blatche had a mostly poor season and so it's easy for everyone to call him a bum too. Health and the right personnel situtation can do wonders for a player.

There is no doubt that Blatche has some major red flags and slicing and dicing the good and bad to the exact percentage of each seems slightly shortsighted to me. I am not arguing that the sample size is not small.

I am arguing that there IS a sample size. Despite what people seem to think, I do not think there is a long list of players who have put up those kind of numbers for even 10 games. Blatche's potential is substantial.

I'm actually checking on this 10 games thing. I'm curious to see if there's anything there. I can't think of a way to query the b-r database for this kind of thing, but Neil Paine (who writes the blog there) might know of something.

Personally, I believe that Blatche's talent is so substantial that his immaturity is hampering an already uphill climb to figure out how to harness that talent. Most players have to work hard. Blatche is both blessed and cursed to have it come so easily. It's not uncommon for people who grow up with a silver spoon in their mouth to have to learn what it means to work hard and this seems similar. When you can do everything, it's hard to learn what to focus on first and I have NO PROBLEM with it taking 100 games of rebuilding basketball to let him figure it out.

Here's where we part ways a bit. Most guys in the NBA had it "come easy" at least at some point in their basketball development. Generally speaking, the guys we see in the NBA were the best athletes in their areas at age 10, age 12, age 14, and so on. For some, that physical edge is gone in college. For others, they maintain until they hit the NBA. For freaks like Jordan or Lebron, the physical edge goes with age. Regardless, at some point the difference between scrub and starter, average and good, good and great is about the work a guy is willing to put in.

Blatche reached that point years ago. He's still there. Maybe he turns the corner this offseason. Maybe he finally figures it out. If I was running the team, I wouldn't expect it. It'd be great if he does it. I sorta think the catalyst for him "getting it" may actually be getting traded from the Wizards. If there's anything that finally gets him going.

Blatche's shortcomings are 100% mental and can be solved with maturity and leadership. When you combine his potential with his contract and age, the obvious conclusion is continued patience for at least another season. Trading a young player with rare potential after a bad season is the definition of penny-wise and pound foolish.

And here's why I disagree. He also has physical problems. They relate to the mental, but he lacks strength and stamina. If the mind changes, then presumably so will the body, but my point is that he still needs considerable work on the body. Also, it's no "a bad season." He's six seasons and ~8600 minutes into his career. I'm not basing my views on Blatche merely on what he's done lately. I'm basing it on his body of...well..."work" isn't quite the right word, but it'll have to do.

Nivek

Patience my friend. Just as you can string together logical concerns, there is also a logical explanation and projection for Dray that says given his age, experience, draft position early in the NBA, coaches, past organization, new owner, contract, personality, and the make up of this current squad, that is just as likely if not actually more probable that he makes that step we want to see this summer. Even in a very injured year, he showed flashes and posted decent numbers all things considered.

He did have a good summer (7DD) the year before he was injured over the summer last year. He did come into camp in better condition than in the past. Even if you only narrow it down to that only and disregard all the other signs that say this will be a good summer, you would expect he would have a good summer.

Look. He has to see that this is his chance to play on an up and coming team. OKC in the makings.
He sees what Ted and EG are doing. He knows more young talented players are coming.
He knows he has no control over where they would trade him and that place could suck.
He see that Wall is attacking player who want to come here.
He see that McGee is going to put in the work in the summer and so is Nick.
He see Crawford as a nice addition to go with Wall and Nick.
He see Booker and his focus and toughness.
He sees the model of the team they want to build and what standard they are looking for.

Trust me. Dray wants to stay here and he is seeing the team form around him or without him if he doesn't keep pace. There is no more Gil antics here. Wall is setting the tone. That is kind of different. No "I'm Mike James Bitch" No DS and his grill credit card smile. No old against young players. Lewis and Mo are perfect for this group.

He may have been a bit of a young knucklehead but he isn't an idiot.

Given that all he has to do is put in the level of work that is appropriate for a vet of his years if he wants to be a part of an up and coming team vs getting traded to God know what team, I'm confident he puts in the work.

[Induveca]

Hands Blatche has played 6 seasons. Were you not around for the Kwame Brown years?

I'll always remember what my friend said about Brown after 4 years in DC.

Something like "how long has he been playing", to which I replied 4 years he said "that's it...........he's done".

Blatche is a useful player, but he's a bench player at this point in my estimation. Maybe he becomes more consistent with age playing a Lamar Odom type role as a 6th man. I'd be quite happy drafting Kanter somehow, and putting Blatche on the bench. If he acts up, trade him.

6 years is enough to judge a guy.......

[Induveca]

Also Hands, how the hell do you know what he's thinking? You obviously don't...........

Eternal optimism is great, but throw in a more realistic POV. There were people up in arms about dumping Kwame for Butler when it happened. It was the best move EG made in his entire tenure IMHO.

If we can get a solid/youngish veteran, and draft Kanter.......I'll wave goodbye to Blatche with zero issues. This team has all the immaturity and inconsistency it can handle from McGee. McGee/Blatche together make up the lowest IQ frontcourt in the league. We can't keep waiting for guys who just aren't too bright to "get it".

Hedging our bets by keeping two idiots around and waiting to see who "gets it" first sadly seems to be EG's strategy.

[JonathanJoseph]

Hands Blatche has played 6 seasons. Were you not around for the Kwame Brown years?

I'll always remember what my friend said about Brown after 4 years in DC.

Something like "how long has he been playing", to which I replied 4 years he said "that's it...........he's done".

Blatche is a useful player, but he's a bench player at this point in my estimation. Maybe he becomes more consistent with age playing a Lamar Odom type role as a 6th man. I'd be quite happy drafting Kanter somehow, and putting Blatche on the bench. If he acts up, trade him.

6 years is enough to judge a guy.......

Kwame Brown is a terrible comparison. Kwame Brown had no hand eye coordination and no natural basketball IQ, and no amount of time was going to change that.

Blatche has every tool in the book and has no idea how to utilize that to the fullest and he has to become more mature. Maturity issues are often solved by age and Blatche is still only 24. Again, there is NO cost to giving Blatche another year at least to see if he figures it out.

There will ALWAYS be a trade market for Blatche under his current contract. Nothing gained by moving him now.

[Nivek]

There is a potential cost to keeping Blatche around -- specifically that he continues to immature, irresponsible and defensive. That he continues shot-jacking, lackluster rebounding, piss-poor defensive effort, being sullen with coaches. That his selfishness and bad attitude (not 100% of the time, but enough) poisons the locker room. That his bad habits rub off on young teammates and hinder their development. That more play like what we saw the bulk of last season could further diminish his trade value if there's no excuse to pin it on (like a foot injury).

I agree that it's at least possible that Blatche could "get it" this offseason, become a workout warrior, and return next season (whenever that is) ready to be an All-Star caliber player. Realistically speaking, it's just as possible (more likely?) that what we've seen is what we'll get from him. That he'll continue to tantalize with his skills and sporadic superior play, but that attitude, personality, mental makeup will prevent him from putting in the work necessary to be his best and to help the team be its best.

The possible cost is pinning hopes to a guy who has been so unreliable through the first 6 years of his career and forcing the team to do a true pennies on the dollar trade and spend resources reacquiring a position they'd penciled in as settled.

Whatever the team does with Blatche has potential costs and payoffs. If they keep him, he MIGHT become a quality player, and he might just offer more of the same and keep the team a loser. If they trade him, he might "get it" at that point and blow up, in which case the Wizards would look bad (even if it was the trade that actually got him going).

I think the team should at very least be open to trading him this offseason. Not a dump, but if they can get a solid asset for the future -- someone who can fit into their long-range plans, even if it's not at a star level. If they keep him, I think they need to be ready to decide quickly on him. They'll have a sense for the kind of work he's putting in during the offseason and they'll know probably in the first practice of training camp whether they're getting 7-day Dray or April Fool's Dray. If it's the latter, they should deal him quickly.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

7thSeasonDray = I'm done with eternal optimism, he is what he is and has been.

My guess is his April from a couple seasons ago will be the brightest spot of his career. (and that's not really a knock, that'd be a brightest spot for most of the big men in the league...)

I anticipate him being with us next year, but I don't expect much improvement from what we've seen. Maybe a few of his plethora of ill advised jumpers will fall to begin the season, and with a respectable shooting% we can trade him...

I still would be happy if we draft Kanter or get any new PF and Blatche can come in with the 2nd team and look to score.

[JonathanJoseph]

There is a potential cost to keeping Blatche around -- specifically that he continues to immature, irresponsible and defensive. That he continues shot-jacking, lackluster rebounding, piss-poor defensive effort, being sullen with coaches. That his selfishness and bad attitude (not 100% of the time, but enough) poisons the locker room. That his bad habits rub off on young teammates and hinder their development. That more play like what we saw the bulk of last season could further diminish his trade value if there's no excuse to pin it on (like a foot injury).

I agree that it's at least possible that Blatche could "get it" this offseason, become a workout warrior, and return next season (whenever that is) ready to be an All-Star caliber player. Realistically speaking, it's just as possible (more likely?) that what we've seen is what we'll get from him. That he'll continue to tantalize with his skills and sporadic superior play, but that attitude, personality, mental makeup will prevent him from putting in the work necessary to be his best and to help the team be its best.

The possible cost is pinning hopes to a guy who has been so unreliable through the first 6 years of his career and forcing the team to do a true pennies on the dollar trade and spend resources reacquiring a position they'd penciled in as settled.

Whatever the team does with Blatche has potential costs and payoffs. If they keep him, he MIGHT become a quality player, and he might just offer more of the same and keep the team a loser. If they trade him, he might "get it" at that point and blow up, in which case the Wizards would look bad (even if it was the trade that actually got him going).

I think the team should at very least be open to trading him this offseason. Not a dump, but if they can get a solid asset for the future -- someone who can fit into their long-range plans, even if it's not at a star level. If they keep him, I think they need to be ready to decide quickly on him. They'll have a sense for the kind of work he's putting in during the offseason and they'll know probably in the first practice of training camp whether they're getting 7-day Dray or April Fool's Dray. If it's the latter, they should deal him quickly.

Blatche is not the cause, he's the effect. Jamison and Butler were the ones who established a culture of bad habits and it's only been a year.

Given that the Wizards are not a championship contender, the downside (that Blatche becomes a locker room problem) is far outweighed by the upside (Blatche becomes a premier PF under a very reasonable contract).

John Wall will be setting the tone for this team and he won't take Blatche's crap and there's no way that the Wizards would ever have trouble trading Blatche over the next few years.

[Nivek]

Blatche is not the cause, he's the effect. Jamison and Butler were the ones who established a culture of bad habits and it's only been a year.

Can't agree with this at all. Blatche's negatives belong to him. First, because of the basic reality that each person is responsible for their own actions. Second, because if he'd followed the example set by Jamison and Butler, he'd be in great shape, he'd play hard almost all the time, he'd be at least reasonably efficient on the offensive end, and he'd care about winning and losing. (And yes, he'd also pick on youngsters a bit and be ineffective on defense (though Butler was a solid defender at times), but you get the point.) Butler got "Myteamitis" in his last season with the Wizards. Before that, his toughness, competitive attitude and good play were valuable to the team.

Was there some shot-jacking from Jamison and Butler? Yes -- more from Butler than Jamison. But, Butler's offensive efficiency (except for his first two seasons) at its worst was about as good as Blatche's at his best. Jamison hasn't been as inefficient as Blatche in more than a decade. When guys play hard, compete, and produce the way Jamison and Butler did, they get some benefit of the doubt. Butler used his up in his final season with the team. Jamison never did -- he was too old and expensive to keep on a rebuilding squad.

Given that the Wizards are not a championship contender, the downside (that Blatche becomes a locker room problem) is far outweighed by the upside (Blatche becomes a premier PF under a very reasonable contract).

I'm not convinced Blatche will become a premier PF. It's a possibility, but there's no way I'd bet on it.

John Wall will be setting the tone for this team and he won't take Blatche's crap and there's no way that the Wizards would ever have trouble trading Blatche over the next few years.

Wall's a good kid, but does he have the leadership skills to rein in Blatche IF Blatche behaves the way he has in the past? I don't know the answer to that. I'm not sure anyone does. I hope so, but I'm not sure.

[JonathanJoseph]

Blatche is not the cause, he's the effect. Jamison and Butler were the ones who established a culture of bad habits and it's only been a year.

Can't agree with this at all. Blatche's negatives belong to him. First, because of the basic reality that each person is responsible for their own actions. Second, because if he'd followed the example set by Jamison and Butler, he'd be in great shape, he'd play hard almost all the time, he'd be at least reasonably efficient on the offensive end, and he'd care about winning and losing. (And yes, he'd also pick on youngsters a bit and be ineffective on defense (though Butler was a solid defender at times), but you get the point.) Butler got "Myteamitis" in his last season with the Wizards. Before that, his toughness, competitive attitude and good play were valuable to the team.

Was there some shot-jacking from Jamison and Butler? Yes -- more from Butler than Jamison. But, Butler's offensive efficiency (except for his first two seasons) at its worst was about as good as Blatche's at his best. Jamison hasn't been as inefficient as Blatche in more than a decade. When guys play hard, compete, and produce the way Jamison and Butler did, they get some benefit of the doubt. Butler used his up in his final season with the team. Jamison never did -- he was too old and expensive to keep on a rebuilding squad.

Given that the Wizards are not a championship contender, the downside (that Blatche becomes a locker room problem) is far outweighed by the upside (Blatche becomes a premier PF under a very reasonable contract).

I'm not convinced Blatche will become a premier PF. It's a possibility, but there's no way I'd bet on it.

John Wall will be setting the tone for this team and he won't take Blatche's crap and there's no way that the Wizards would ever have trouble trading Blatche over the next few years.

Wall's a good kid, but does he have the leadership skills to rein in Blatche IF Blatche behaves the way he has in the past? I don't know the answer to that. I'm not sure anyone does. I hope so, but I'm not sure.

Right. Each person is responsible for their own actions so the only person Blatche can hurt is Blatche. And that's the worst case scenario, so very little "cost" associated with keeping Blatche another year. And yes I feel very comfortable that Wall is the kind of leader that will overtake a personality like Blatche's before the end of training camp.

I'm NOT arguing that Blatche is or will be a franchise player or an all-star. But he could be and there is still no reason to even consider trading him this offseason. There will ALWAYS be a trade market for a 24/25 year old 6'11'', multi-skiled NBA player who has shown flashes of greatness, so I still fail to see any valid reason to move him now.

[pancakes3]

I don't see any reason to deal blatche. he's very talented and on the cheap. say what you want about his "character" but the fact is he's an 18/8 guy at the end of the day. statistically there's not a lot separating him from borderline PFs like K-Mart, Pre-memphis Randolph, Mehmet Okur, or say... Tom Googs from back in the day. he's not holding us back from anything, and he's never directly contributed to any sort of wiz shortcoming that you can directly point to. ephemeral things like "poisoning the locker room" is grasping at straws to support a personal bias imo. so what if he's lazy? shaq was lazy. you want talent for your dollars and we've got a pretty good ratio of that going with AB.

the day he starts skipping practices and games because of his fast and loose lifestyle will be the day the "locker room presence" argument starts holding water. getting his rocks off with women of ill repute and going fast in his fast cars is just part and parcel of giving teenagers millions of dollars.

this past memorial day weekend i spent it with a bunch of buddies, all of whom are young mid-20's professionals with jobs ranging from schoolteacher to wall street I-bankers. we all dropped a good amount of money for booze and other vices. next weekend i've got a wedding in orlando and i plan on making some morally questionable decisions there too. it's what kids with money do. blatche just has more of it. if i could upgrade my accord to a ferrari, i'd do it in a heartbeat. if i could afford to keep a condo in miami, you bet i'd "invest in that real estate".

i'm not calling you guys fogeys, or saying what i do is awesome nor ideal, but just want to say again that we really shouldn't put these guys up on a pedastal. just like not everyone can jump like MJ, it's even more rare to be driven like MJ. some people just don't have that mental discipline but it doesn't make them a worthless player.

[Wizardspride]

@pancakes3

Well said.

[bullitz]

I don't see any reason to deal blatche. he's very talented and on the cheap. say what you want about his "character" but the fact is he's an 18/8 guy at the end of the day. statistically there's not a lot separating him from borderline PFs like K-Mart, Pre-memphis Randolph, Mehmet Okur, or say... Tom Googs from back in the day. he's not holding us back from anything, and he's never directly contributed to any sort of wiz shortcoming that you can directly point to. ephemeral things like "poisoning the locker room" is grasping at straws to support a personal bias imo. so what if he's lazy? shaq was lazy. you want talent for your dollars and we've got a pretty good ratio of that going with AB.

the day he starts skipping practices and games because of his fast and loose lifestyle will be the day the "locker room presence" argument starts holding water. getting his rocks off with women of ill repute and going fast in his fast cars is just part and parcel of giving teenagers millions of dollars.

this past memorial day weekend i spent it with a bunch of buddies, all of whom are young mid-20's professionals with jobs ranging from schoolteacher to wall street I-bankers. we all dropped a good amount of money for booze and other vices. next weekend i've got a wedding in orlando and i plan on making some morally questionable decisions there too. it's what kids with money do. blatche just has more of it. if i could upgrade my accord to a ferrari, i'd do it in a heartbeat. if i could afford to keep a condo in miami, you bet i'd "invest in that real estate".

i'm not calling you guys fogeys, or saying what i do is awesome nor ideal, but just want to say again that we really shouldn't put these guys up on a pedastal. just like not everyone can jump like MJ, it's even more rare to be driven like MJ. some people just don't have that mental discipline but it doesn't make them a worthless player.

I agree completely. Blatche's trade is low now not because he's a cancer but because he played most of the year with a foot injury that often impact big men moreso than any other players. The argument to trade him for peanuts or even an unknown in Kanter (who would likely be a low lottery pick in a strong draft) is silly to me. I'm all for trading him if we get value, I'm just not sure how valuable he is at this point. I think it's safe to say Blatche will not prevent the Wizards from winning a championship next year or the year after so what's the rush?

[dobrojim]

seems to me the pragmatic approach is not to try to unload AB for
the first ham sandwich you can get for him but also to not let the
potential for future improvement outweigh the reality that it's
not a good bet that he will change his stripes at 6 or however many
years we've had him. One thing about that is although he has been
around a long time, the first 2 years were wasted by getting shot
(his fault or not? I'd say more not although it was bad judgment to be
where/when he was when it happened). He's still pretty young
and maybe he will finally grow up in the head and realize he's
been on a path to wasting what might have been.

So I wouldn't hesitate to offer AB in a trade but not at fire-sale
prices this off-season. This year is make/break time for both
AB and McGee -McGee more for his mental approach to the game -
ditching the espn highlight seeking persona for a bread/butter
meat and potato game that's about winning games by playing
smart.

[Hoopalotta]

I don't see any reason to deal blatche. he's very talented and on the cheap. say what you want about his "character" but the fact is he's an 18/8 guy at the end of the day. statistically there's not a lot separating him from borderline PFs like K-Mart, Pre-memphis Randolph, Mehmet Okur, or say... Tom Googs from back in the day. he's not holding us back from anything, and he's never directly contributed to any sort of wiz shortcoming that you can directly point to. ephemeral things like "poisoning the locker room" is grasping at straws to support a personal bias imo. so what if he's lazy? shaq was lazy. you want talent for your dollars and we've got a pretty good ratio of that going with AB.

Well, I wouldn't dump him for nutin' or posit that we need to act now but we were 29th in both defensive rebounding and opponents field goal percentage at the rim. On the subjective end, the empirical "lying eyes" data collected by myself was not always, shall we say, flattering of our dear Mr. Seven Dray in those regards either. Ok, going further, I don't see how Dray didn't outright flail there last year. He's just a very poor defensive complement to McGee who needs someone more physical to rotate towards the rim behind him and body up when he picks up against penetration, which is something for which Dray is terrible at. So, I would describe them as being a dysfunctional pairing, myself.

It would be interesting to screen for team winning percentages on past performances in that range of Opp-FG%-RIm/Def-REB as I doubt you're looking at a lot of competence outside of maybe the Doug Moe Nuggets or something like that.

There are also a great many more on-court elements that could be brought up, but I'm a' pass the baton off on that one.

[pancakes3]

well if you want to make the argument that blatche has holes in his game, don't use my bit of social commentary as the tackling dummy. i was merely pointing out that we shouldn't be looking to run him out of town at all costs like some trade proposers are doing - trading him for someone like Brad Miller for instance. I didn't even know Miller was still in the league.

however, i will chip in this: we're bad defensively, but we're not 1980's run and gun bad. blatche is bad, but he's not really letting defenders through like a breeze through a screen door either (eye test). I think blatche and mcgee overall has the potential to be a half-decent frontcourt actually. if i may put on my CCJ hat for a second, if we could get JV to play PF defensively and AB to lock down C's and do so intelligently? I don't see why our oppefg% wouldn't lower and our rebounds wouldn't climb.

McGee is about as fast and as long as big men get. Physically he can show and recover on pick and rolls as well as anyone in the league It's just that he has no idea what or why he has to show on pnrs. he also has no idea how to keep his head on a swivel, keep his arms up, or locate his man by "feel" rather than by sight. AB on the other hand knows how to do these things, he's just slow footed. he can go toe to toe with an ancient KG but as for the crazy fast PF's out there? the Amare's, Bosh's, and Durant's... or the crafty PF's like Dirk, Marion, and Odom? i'd rather let JV and his go-go gadget arms flail around and let AB's "steadfastness" (read: slowness) plod in the low low post.

If they did switch up defensive assignments, practiced hard, and sneak JV some ginko biloba into his protein shakes? we've got a really decent frontcourt imo.

[hands11]

Hands Blatche has played 6 seasons. Were you not around for the Kwame Brown years?

I'll always remember what my friend said about Brown after 4 years in DC.

Something like "how long has he been playing", to which I replied 4 years he said "that's it...........he's done".

Blatche is a useful player, but he's a bench player at this point in my estimation. Maybe he becomes more consistent with age playing a Lamar Odom type role as a 6th man. I'd be quite happy drafting Kanter somehow, and putting Blatche on the bench. If he acts up, trade him.

6 years is enough to judge a guy.......

Not again. Look at his minutes and starts, not years.
Looks at his coaches and owner.
And look at his injury last summer and his first year.

Dray's experience is closer to a 3-4 year player then a six year player.

This next year is the year to judge him harder. The year after getting a new owner and coming off a very injured year. The year after he got his new teammates with include Wall and Booker.

[Ruzious]

Hands Blatche has played 6 seasons. Were you not around for the Kwame Brown years?

I'll always remember what my friend said about Brown after 4 years in DC.

Something like "how long has he been playing", to which I replied 4 years he said "that's it...........he's done".

Blatche is a useful player, but he's a bench player at this point in my estimation. Maybe he becomes more consistent with age playing a Lamar Odom type role as a 6th man. I'd be quite happy drafting Kanter somehow, and putting Blatche on the bench. If he acts up, trade him.

6 years is enough to judge a guy.......

Not again. Look at his minutes and starts, not years.
Looks at his coaches and owner.
And look at his injury last summer and his first year.

Dray's experience is closer to a 3-4 year player then a six year player.

This next year is the year to judge him harder. The year after getting a new owner and coming off a very injured year. The year after he got his new teammates with include Wall and Booker.

Not again is the proper response to your post. Accountability. It's not just for breakfast, anymore.