Elias Rankings update

[Schad]

I'll try to use this thread to keep track of where our potential free agents sit based on Eddie Bajek's figures, as he updates them throughout the year. Keep in mind that it's an approximation; while he nails the vast majority of them, the guys on the margins aren't always correct.

C: Jose Molina. Current arb status - Type B (final slot). This is good news/bad news...the good news being that Molina could yield a comp pick. The bad news being that he'd have to keep up his incredible pace to do so.

1B/OF/DH: Juan Rivera. Current arb status - N/A (by some distance). Unless he starts mashing in a very big way, we won't be getting a pick.

2B/SS/3B: Aaron Hill. Current arb status - Type A. That's extremely surprising, actually. It's also not necessarily good news...at his current production levels, no team is going to fork over a first rounder to sign him. As it's looking less and less likely that he will be worth his options, we're probably best off hoping that he falls to Type B.

2B/SS/3B: Edwin Encarnacion. Current arb status - N/A. Yeah...there's no light at the end of that tunnel. Elias takes into account fielding percentage, and E5 can't field.

RP: Shawn Camp. Current arb status - Type A (final slot). Again, a guy who would certainly sign a major league deal, but no team would surrender a first rounder to get.

RP: Jason Frasor. Current arb status - Type B (a shade below Camp). Probably has more value in trade, if we go that route. We also have an option on him, if we want to keep him for another season (also not a bad idea).

RP: Frank Francisco. Current arb status - Type B (and highly likely to remain there). Yay, comp pick.

RP: Jon Rauch. Current arb status - Type B (not as much of a lock, but still very likely). Yay, another comp pick.

RP: Octavio Dotel. Current arb status - Type B (also pretty likely). Does he turn down arb, though?



So as things currently stand, we could have up to seven players who would yield compensation...Molina seems doubtful, and we won't dump all of the relievers, but we look to be staring down another off-season which will plump up our draft.

[Wally West]

I think the Jays would look to trade Octavio at or near the trade deadline if he doesn't improve. At least then, we could net something of value instead of us risking him losing his type b status or him acceptiong arbitration. I'm surprised however that Frasor doesn't have Type A status considering he's having a way better year than last year when he had Type A status. -_-**
AA regrets the Napoli for Frankie trade now? Napoli has 10HRs has a platoon player playing a little bit of 1B, DH and C. Wow loool. Frankie has how many blown saves so far? 3 I think it is. Oh well. I think if Juan Rivera isn't moved at the trade deadline, with the way he's been hitting lately, he'll get at least Type B status. What's the deal on Corey Patterson though? He doesn't get a ranking because he signed a minor league contract?

[Osiris]

Not that I'm about to proclaim an exact understanding of their classifications - I didn't find myself disagreeing with Camp being a Type A - but I did find myself wondering why Frasor wouldn't have been as well?

Am i missing something?

[Schad]

Not that I'm about to proclaim an exact understanding of their classifications - I didn't find myself disagreeing with Camp being a Type A - but I did find myself wondering why Frasor wouldn't have been as well?

Am i missing something?

Camp's numbers are slightly better...ERA of 2.84 vs. 3.15, 98.1 IP vs. 85.2 IP. They're within a point, so that probably makes all the difference.

[dagger]

I think the Jays would look to trade Octavio at or near the trade deadline if he doesn't improve. At least then, we could net something of value instead of us risking him losing his type b status or him acceptiong arbitration. I'm surprised however that Frasor doesn't have Type A status considering he's having a way better year than last year when he had Type A status. -_-**
AA regrets the Napoli for Frankie trade now? Napoli has 10HRs has a platoon player playing a little bit of 1B, DH and C. Wow loool. Frankie has how many blown saves so far? 3 I think it is. Oh well. I think if Juan Rivera isn't moved at the trade deadline, with the way he's been hitting lately, he'll get at least Type B status. What's the deal on Corey Patterson though? He doesn't get a ranking because he signed a minor league contract?

Trade Dotel at the deadline. Deal Rivera?
Listen, I get the whole comp pick thing, but isn't it time we stop acting like a bottom feeder and think about playing some serious games in August let alone September? We're two games over .500, in a division that for once, has no runaway leader(s). Lind is back this weekend, Lawrie is days away. Heck, Rivera is even giving us some decent D at first, and will fit nicely at the lower end of the batting order.

So maybe the issue isn't whom to trade, or whom might we lose this offseason for compensation or not, but how this team should approach the season from the standpoint of possible contention for a playoff spot. Should we be buying talent at the deadline, not selling? What needs should we fill? Maybe we should pay less heed to comp picks and more on actually pursuing a playoff spot (like the usual caveat that barring the acquisition of a player who would be part of the future, we don't deal any of our "keeper" young talent for rentals).

[Schad]

That's a decision to be made in July; we aren't going to be buying or selling players until that point, because no one puts their players on the market (at reasonable prices, at least) in May/June. Most of us are just assuming that we'll be out of the race by then, given that we're a decidedly mediocre club.

And trading our relievers away in mid-summer doesn't really hurt our ability to compete next year, if that's the goal.

[Osiris]

Not that I'm about to proclaim an exact understanding of their classifications - I didn't find myself disagreeing with Camp being a Type A - but I did find myself wondering why Frasor wouldn't have been as well?

Am i missing something?

Camp's numbers are slightly better...ERA of 2.84 vs. 3.15, 98.1 IP vs. 85.2 IP. They're within a point, so that probably makes all the difference.

Where are these numbers coming from, exactly? His projection? I can't find any of these numbers in my usual places...

[Wally West]

I think the Jays would look to trade Octavio at or near the trade deadline if he doesn't improve. At least then, we could net something of value instead of us risking him losing his type b status or him acceptiong arbitration. I'm surprised however that Frasor doesn't have Type A status considering he's having a way better year than last year when he had Type A status. -_-**
AA regrets the Napoli for Frankie trade now? Napoli has 10HRs has a platoon player playing a little bit of 1B, DH and C. Wow loool. Frankie has how many blown saves so far? 3 I think it is. Oh well. I think if Juan Rivera isn't moved at the trade deadline, with the way he's been hitting lately, he'll get at least Type B status. What's the deal on Corey Patterson though? He doesn't get a ranking because he signed a minor league contract?

Trade Dotel at the deadline. Deal Rivera?
Listen, I get the whole comp pick thing, but isn't it time we stop acting like a bottom feeder and think about playing some serious games in August let alone September? We're two games over .500, in a division that for once, has no runaway leader(s). Lind is back this weekend, Lawrie is days away. Heck, Rivera is even giving us some decent D at first, and will fit nicely at the lower end of the batting order.

So maybe the issue isn't whom to trade, or whom might we lose this offseason for compensation or not, but how this team should approach the season from the standpoint of possible contention for a playoff spot. Should we be buying talent at the deadline, not selling? What needs should we fill? Maybe we should pay less heed to comp picks and more on actually pursuing a playoff spot (like the usual caveat that barring the acquisition of a player who would be part of the future, we don't deal any of our "keeper" young talent for rentals).

This isn't the year that management has said they're targeting to be title contenders. And as much as I like our team this year, I think that moving guys like Juan Rivera, Dotel and even Patterson would help us in the long run in terms of double A's vision to build a team that's going to be a freight train meaning that they're going to be in the cusp of things every year just like what the Tampa Bay Rays have done. Shure going for it this year would be fun but in the end, it could hurt what double A has been trying to do since taking over as our GM.

[Schad]

Where are these numbers coming from, exactly? His projection? I can't find any of these numbers in my usual places...

Sorry; those are their combined 2010 and 2011 numbers, which is what Elias uses.

[Osiris]

Good to know. Thanks for the info.

In the meantime (as I was trying to figure this all out myself), I've since seen the chart and now also understand what you meant when you said they were within a point...it really was just that the cutoff had to be somewhere, I suppose.

[Lateral Quicks]

Trade Dotel at the deadline. Deal Rivera?
Listen, I get the whole comp pick thing, but isn't it time we stop acting like a bottom feeder and think about playing some serious games in August let alone September? We're two games over .500, in a division that for once, has no runaway leader(s). Lind is back this weekend, Lawrie is days away. Heck, Rivera is even giving us some decent D at first, and will fit nicely at the lower end of the batting order.

So maybe the issue isn't whom to trade, or whom might we lose this offseason for compensation or not, but how this team should approach the season from the standpoint of possible contention for a playoff spot. Should we be buying talent at the deadline, not selling? What needs should we fill? Maybe we should pay less heed to comp picks and more on actually pursuing a playoff spot (like the usual caveat that barring the acquisition of a player who would be part of the future, we don't deal any of our "keeper" young talent for rentals).

I would argue that trading Rivera and Dotel are both moves that would make the team better in the future AND now.

Dotel is a guy who is an absolute disaster against one side of the plate, and unless you're a lefty specialist, that really minimizes your value as a reliever.

Rivera has no speed, is a bad outfielder, and has career mediocre offensive numbers.

Dotel's spot can be filled adequately from within the organization, and it means stupid stuff like sending Casey Janssen down likely won't happen again.

Rivera's spot can also be filled within the organization by an Eric Thames or David Cooper, both of whom I would argue over a larger sample size will produce more than Rivera. Plus they are both left handed bats, adding much needed balance to the lineup.

The main reason for Tampa's enduring success is they've realized mediocre/average veterans can be replaced by mediocre/average young players at a small fraction of the cost. We need to get beyond the idea that trading away replaceable veteran players is equivalent to throwing in the towel on the season. Sometimes it's just the opposite.

[rtcaino]

Hopefully Hill and Camp slip from Type A Status. I dont see Hill turning down Arb though, unless he finishes the year strong.

I highly doubt Dotel turns down arb also: unless they had one of those gentleman's agreements before inking the deal.

Looks like four or five extra picks to me. (June 2012, woot woot)

[rtcaino]

and we won't dump all of the relievers, but we look to be staring down another off-season which will plump up our draft.

What do you mean by that?

I kind of expect all of the relievers to be dumped. I kind of feel the main reason we have most of our relievers on one year deals is to get draft pick compensation.

Once the compensation rules change, as has been anticipated, I expect that we will start developing more long term bullpen solutions. Untill then, one years deals and draft pick compensation seems like a valuable strategy.

[rtcaino]

I would argue that trading Rivera and Dotel are both moves that would make the team better in the future AND now.

Dotel is a guy who is an absolute disaster against one side of the plate, and unless you're a lefty specialist, that really minimizes your value as a reliever.

Rivera has no speed, is a bad outfielder, and has career mediocre offensive numbers.

Dotel's spot can be filled adequately from within the organization, and it means stupid stuff like sending Casey Janssen down likely won't happen again.

Rivera's spot can also be filled within the organization by an Eric Thames or David Cooper, both of whom I would argue over a larger sample size will produce more than Rivera. Plus they are both left handed bats, adding much needed balance to the lineup.

The main reason for Tampa's enduring success is they've realized mediocre/average veterans can be replaced by mediocre/average young players at a small fraction of the cost. We need to get beyond the idea that trading away replaceable veteran players is equivalent to throwing in the towel on the season. Sometimes it's just the opposite.

Since they suck (as you point out), how do you expect to get value for them?

[Schad]

What do you mean by that?

I kind of expect all of the relievers to be dumped. I kind of feel the main reason we have most of our relievers on one year deals are to get draft pick compensation.

Once the compensation rules change, as has been anticipated, I expect that we will start developing more long term bullpen solutions. Untill then, one years deals and draft pick compensation seems like a valuable strategy.

My guess is that at least one or two of them will take arbitration, likely either Frasor/Camp if they hit Type A status. Frasor has already done it once, after all.

[rtcaino]

My guess is that at least one or two of them will take arbitration, likely either Frasor/Camp if they hit Type A status. Frasor has already done it once, after all.

Ya agreed. The possibility of them accepting provides a nice natural hedge.

I think AA would prefer to dump all of them and gain compensation: but is very comfortable with the downside risk of having decent relief help next year on affordable one year deals. (Especially with what seem to project as a young, inexperienced pen.)

[Lateral Quicks]

I would argue that trading Rivera and Dotel are both moves that would make the team better in the future AND now.

Dotel is a guy who is an absolute disaster against one side of the plate, and unless you're a lefty specialist, that really minimizes your value as a reliever.

Rivera has no speed, is a bad outfielder, and has career mediocre offensive numbers.

Dotel's spot can be filled adequately from within the organization, and it means stupid stuff like sending Casey Janssen down likely won't happen again.

Rivera's spot can also be filled within the organization by an Eric Thames or David Cooper, both of whom I would argue over a larger sample size will produce more than Rivera. Plus they are both left handed bats, adding much needed balance to the lineup.

The main reason for Tampa's enduring success is they've realized mediocre/average veterans can be replaced by mediocre/average young players at a small fraction of the cost. We need to get beyond the idea that trading away replaceable veteran players is equivalent to throwing in the towel on the season. Sometimes it's just the opposite.

Since they suck (as you point out), how do you expect to get value for them?

I never said I expected the get value for them. In fact I have every expectation that we won't. But we likely won't get any value for them in the off-season either, so you may as well dump them sooner rather than later, if you can, to open up spots for the prospects deserving a shot.

[luenell]

I would argue that trading Rivera and Dotel are both moves that would make the team better in the future AND now.

Dotel is a guy who is an absolute disaster against one side of the plate, and unless you're a lefty specialist, that really minimizes your value as a reliever.

Rivera has no speed, is a bad outfielder, and has career mediocre offensive numbers.
Dotel's spot can be filled adequately from within the organization, and it means stupid stuff like sending Casey Janssen down likely won't happen again.

Rivera's spot can also be filled within the organization by an Eric Thames or David Cooper, both of whom I would argue over a larger sample size will produce more than Rivera. Plus they are both left handed bats, adding much needed balance to the lineup.

The main reason for Tampa's enduring success is they've realized mediocre/average veterans can be replaced by mediocre/average young players at a small fraction of the cost. We need to get beyond the idea that trading away replaceable veteran players is equivalent to throwing in the towel on the season. Sometimes it's just the opposite.

Yeah, and thats why he's playing first. Also, if these players are as bad as you say, why would another team want them, let alone give you anything remotely useful for them?

[Lateral Quicks]

Yeah, and thats why he's playing first. Also, if these players are as bad as you say, why would another team want them, let alone give you anything remotely useful for them?

Trading them, even for a poor return, allows our deserving prospects earlier development time in the majors, which you would hope makes them solid contributors all the more quickly. Of course, this only makes sense if you believe we have prospects that are deserving and can fill in for the departing players without any meaningful negative impact on performance.

If you aren't going to get a return for these guys in the offseason, AND they're not meaningful contributors, what is the point of keeping them around if they're blocking the way of the prospects? I'd sooner eat some salary to ship them out then keep them around under those circumstances.

[Schad]

My guess is that at least one or two of them will take arbitration, likely either Frasor/Camp if they hit Type A status. Frasor has already done it once, after all.

Ya agreed. The possibility of them accepting provides a nice natural hedge.

I think AA would prefer to dump all of them and gain compensation: but is very comfortable with the downside risk of having decent relief help next year on affordable one year deals. (Especially with what seem to project as a young, inexperienced pen.)

Yeah, though it'd also be fairly easy to cobble together a solid group with a couple short-term signings that would be as good as the current group, for about the same price (we're paying about $16m for our 'pen). An example, using high-end projections for their salaries:

Villanueva - RHP. $2.5m.
Janssen - RHP. $2m.
Rzep - LHP. $450k.
Alan Farina - RHP. $450k.
Javier Lopez - LHP. $3.5m
Chad Qualls - RHP. $3.5m.
Sergio Mitre - RHP. $3.5m

Not that I'm recommending those particular pitchers, but any team that wants to burn $10m on relievers can build themselves a pretty damned good, veteran bullpen (assuming that you're going for quantity rather than throwing the lot at a closer).