The Last Hurrah?

[tfmiii]

Before I start, let me preface this by saying that what I anticipate happening this offseason is some tweaking of the roster around the edges, attempting to get more athletic and get some bench help that hopefully is not injured for 3/4ths of the season. Doc signing on for 5 more seasons also gives one reason to hope that he will have a much greater incentive to develop and integrate any additions to the roster in a meaningful way. We need to add some core contributors, but our assets for doing so are slim.

What assets do we have? We have two expiring contracts (Garnett’s massive payday and Jermaine O’Neal’s midlevel exception) with a likely third after Ray Allen exercises his player option. We have Big Baby’s bird rights, which in the most optimistic of scenarios could net us another player and/or draft pick in a sign and trade. We have some trade exceptions for shipping out Marquis Daniels, Luke Harangody and Semih Erden. We have our draft picks and the Clippers (likely next season). Jeff Green is a restricted free agent and we still have Avery Bradley. It remains to be seen if we still have the midlevel and biannual exceptions, dependent on the new labor agreement.

In short, unless we get very lucky it is unlikely we will be able to add any significant difference makers to the team. We will likely take the best player available at 25 in what is considered a weak draft. Our trade options are limited unless Danny wants to break up the core four. Pierce I cannot see being traded. Garnett or Allen could go, but unless some team becomes desperate to obtain something in exchange for a player preparing to walk in free agency, I don’t see how we can obtain anyone who will help us more this coming season. So unless that difference maker is already on the roster – Jeff Green -I'd say we are in trouble. From the little I have seen I would have to say that Jeff alone is not enough.

We need help rebounding and defending the rim, locking down on the wings, backup point guard, but perhaps the area most in need of help in crunch time offense. This is what Danny Ainge seemed to think in the WEEI interview. It also reminded me of what KC Jones had to say about his teams, if they could do a better job scoring it would remedy their defensive deficiencies as well, since the greatest trouble they had defending was in transition or semi-transition opportunities.

The most valuable asset the Celtics currently have is also the key to their future rebuild – Rajon Rondo. He is the engine that makes this team go. He is the Celtics present and future. Despite all that there are huge holes in his game – namely creating/making shots in crunch time and converting free throws. These deficiencies are magnified on this team because that is exactly our weak point, converting on offense at the end of games.

Does Danny take his most valuable chip and see what he can get both for next season and for the rebuild beyond?

I have a hard time imagining Danny dealing Rondo, but then I thought Perkins and Rondo would be our cornerstones for the future after the big three retire.

Danny have given us precedent that he is willing to bring in past their prime vets to try and squeeze out the most he can out of this core without endangering his salary positioning for the future. He has also shown that he is willing to part with a younger member of the core - Kendrick Perkins to obtain what he thought could be two immediate contributors (one of whom could be a key future asset) as well as a future draft pick. Swapping Rondo for two additional contributors plus draft picks would be a very similar type deal. Naturally the return would have to be far more rewarding. For one, we would have to get a top notch PG, but beyond that our most desperate need is at the center position (ironically as a result of the Perkins trade).

The trading partner would have to be a team with valuable players but one that is also no longer a contender. It would help if they were in the Western Division and also bottom-line conscious. The team that springs immediately to my mind is the Phoenix Suns. There may be others, but I will focus on the Suns as an example of how things could pan out.

Steve Nash is no Rajon Rondo, even in his prime. In fact they may well each represent the ying to the others yang. About the only qualities they seem to share are peerless playmaking and a gritty toughness. Nash is not only a gifted playmaker but he is also a primary offensive threat from the three point line on in, and in addition he owns one of the top FT %s in the league. Having Nash running the show would go a long, long ways towards ending scoring droughts in the fourth quarter. As gifted as Nash is on the offensive end he is abysmal on defense. Rondo outshines Nash on defense, rebounding, athleticism and of course with regards to age and existing chemistry. That is a lot to give up but that is precisely why Phoenix would be interested.

Needless to say a straight up trade is ridiculous. Phoenix would have to sweeten the pot. What if they were to include center Marcin Gortat? Signed to a midlevel deal for the next three years, Gortat was considered one of the best if not the best backup centers in the league – unfortunately for him he was backing up Dwight Howard. Since joining the Suns Gortat has averaged 13 ppg, 9 rpg and was on pace to block over 100 shots when projected for a full season - all in 30 mpg.

Phoenix also has another center on their roster signed to a similar contract, Channing Frye, who from what I can gather is a better fit for their offensive philosophy, making Gortat something of a luxury on a team that is always looking to cut corners when possible (ironically Gortat and Rondo were both drafted by Phoenix and then sold to the Magic and Celtics respectively).

Gortat would fill a huge hole for the Celtics not just this season but also moving forward. His numbers would represent an improvement over Perkins, although numbers do not measure defense or heart – I remain a huge fan of Perk, but given the stats and physical tools Gortat could be the best center we’ve had since Robert Parish. He is a physical presence who could eat up space, boards and minutes as well as defending the rim and representing a more than passable fifth offensive option.

Even the inclusion of Gortat (in exchange for Jermaine O’Neal who could be subsequently bought out) leaves the trade too unbalanced in Phoenix’s favor however. At least one draft pick coming Boston’s way would have to be involved. All the more so given that we are not simply trading this generation’s Jason Kidd, but also because he is also currently the key to our future rebuild. If we are to rebuild without Rondo as the glue of our team, increasing the value of our assets and luring potential free agents, then we need to get some significant assets in the draft.

Nash has only one more year on his contract (expiring along with Garnett’s and Allen’s) so theoretically we could make a pitch to get one of the top two PGs in the 2012 FA market (Chris Paul or Deron Williams) giving us a potential core of ‘Paul/Williams,’ Bradley, Pierce, Green, and Gortat - but counting on such an improbability would be poor planning. If Danny can obtain another 1-2 draft picks from Phoenix to go along with the Clippers pick and our own, then he may have the assets to restock the roster with a blue chip prospect at the point or leverage a sign and trade for a suitable replacement. It would be risky, but if Danny decides to go the FA route at least he would have two potential targets. If instead he were to keep Rondo with the idea of acquiring Dwight Howard he would be reducing his chances by half (not to mention that Orlando would be loath to facilitate Howard going to an east coast rival).

Finally, there is the fact that this may be the last opportunity with this core for one last grab at the brass ring. Think of it as the Walton trade… or Houston’s trade for Clyde Drexler… go all in for an aging future HOF to bring one more title to the team before the inevitable rebuild.

Gortat, Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Nash (let the threes rain down) – backed up by O’Neal (resigned after buyout), Krstic, Green, West, Bradley, draft picks and whoever we can get in a sign and trade for Big Baby??? Clearly there is still a need for a back up PG, and who knows perhaps Ainge’s interest in Reggie Jackson stems in part from this. We could also use another athletic, defensive wing. But this trade would answer two key deficiencies: crunch time scoring and a youthful, healthy, physical, rebounding, shotblocking center. And this still leaves us the two exceptions – if they still exist after the new labor agreement.

There are lots of reasons why not to do this, but the best reason why not to is named Rajon Rondo. An electrifying talent coupled with a huge heart, he is the best pure point we have in the game today. He is young, resilient, at times the best player on the floor – a potential hall of famer. Hardly a game goes by without a ‘WOW’ move, pass or finish. He could anchor season after season of playoff contenders.

Yet Jason Kidd, the player I feel Rondo most resembles, has been traded several times. Rondo is our best asset and he also represents our future. But does that future have a ceiling? If such trade were to go down its success would hinge in large part on how easily Rajon’s place in our future could be replaced, whether by trade, free agency or draft. A player of Rondo’s intellectual and physical talents is rare, and that is probably the key reason why a trade like this will not materialize.

But sometimes you just need someone who can also just put the ball into the basket. Call it back to the future, the Over the Hill gang or the Last Hurrah, but a swap as outlined above would be exciting, risky and possibly the last best chance to secure number 18 next season.

[greenbeans]

I'm sold

[energyking]

rondo is not getting traded. he is the best PG in the game. I stopped reading your post when you suggested "perk and rondo were supposed to be the future of the team after the big 3." Rondo yes, perk was never certified to stay as the future ever since danny started making all those contracts ending in 2012 just in time for dwight howard/2012 free agency.

rondo is not getting traded. end of story.

[threrf23]

It's an interesting proposal, and post.

Of course, Nash is 37. Last season players 37 and up who made a decent contribution to their team and stayed healthy enough to keep contributing for more than Shaq did, included: Grant Hill and Jason Kidd. Maybe Kurt Thomas. Not a long list.

It makes a ton of sense if we feel we can land CP3 or Deron via free agency, but particularly if there is no season-long lockout these guys could be traded or extended before the offseason.

Of course another possibility is, we simply make more of an effort to surround him with the right teammates. He doesn't shoot the trey. Coincidentally, past couple of seasons, our team is nearly atop the league when it comes to a.) passing the ball well (if measured by AST/FG), b.) shooting a high percentage inside the arc (as measured by 2 PT FG%). We have also been top 10 in free throws per FGA. The one weakness that theoretically, and coincidentally, prevents our offense from being elite: in terms of 3 point FGAs per minute played (maybe I should be using some per possession stat, but a slower pace should lead to a higher % anyways) we ranked 16th last season and 26th this past season. Remember when I think it was Danny who mentioned last year "we win whenever Sheed hits his threes" ...keep in mind the relationship between all those aspects of an offense can be reciprocal.

To make better use of Rondo more two point jump shots ideally need to become threes, and we need to run more.

Solutions without acquiring Nash/Gortat? JR Smith for the MLE would be ideal. He can certainly run, potential to be one of the league's best three point shooters (and I've mentioned in probably a few other threads that I feel his all around game is underrated). There will be a market for him but he won't end up back in Denver IMO and he's anxious to play a good role in a good situation for him, IMO. Worth going after, even if there are question marks (expense and otherwise), IMO, because solutions like that aren't so easy to find. Jason Richardson would be an alternate option but is less versatile defensively and a little older.

The other part of the equation is a big man who can run, catch passes, finish at the rim. Would love to count on JO, but...would love to count on Nenad, and on the right night he fits the bill okay, but the mental toughness, and overall toughness, don't appear to be there. Potentially cheap front court FAs who scored well enough around the rim last season include Chris Wilcox and Josh McRoberts. Wilcox has injury history and his defensive stats often suck and at times in the past he's been TO prone. McRoberts is a PF, don't know how well he'd fit in @ C, but is much more intriguing. Of course he is much more intriguing to our competition as well, so we couldn't count on landing him. Draft? risky. Gortat would be ideal but...

Toronto could make a play for Jeff Green IMO, Amir Johnson would be an interesting possibility even if he isn't a typical Center. Of course I'm not convinced they would part with him.

Or maybe you go with a three point shooting big who can also defend and rebound and isn't old like Mehmet Okur/Sheed, but I'm not sure who fits that bill.

[GrandTheftRondo]

More like we're on a quarter of a life.

[Ed Pinkney]

An interesting idea, to get older and less athletic. Why trade a young, talented point guard under contract for a pretty reasonable price for one year of a former All Star who in my opinion will not make us any better just to get some extra cap space to target players I don't see wanting to come here? If anything having Rondo here would be more enticing for Dwight Howard.

[Hemingway]

That is a pretty bad idea. Short term it doesn't make us a ton better(im not even convinced it makes us better, period.) In the long term this deal is terrible. Nash will be done in a few years. Gortat is good, but back up C good, now star good.

At some point Nash could be had cheap. PHX never wants to pay. Thats why we have Rondo to begin with. How about a creative deal for KG or Rays contract where they come back. We then send some assets out for nash.

Or just get him for the MLE when his turn to chase rings comes around.

[captain green]

well written and decent idea however, it is a lateral move.
Steve Nash, Marcin Gortat and a draft pick for Rondo
If we were going to trade Rondo we'd get a package way better than that.

[RagingSage10]

People overvalue Rondo too much. He has the potential to be the best PG in the league, but right now he is not. And his biggest flaws have shown stagnated development the last few years. Also people underestimate how difficult it is to achieve a championship calibre team. If any trade makes us closer to a championship now, then I say screw the future. Its not like rebuilding is easy. Teams do it for years and years and still remain in the cellar. Of course we have a much better GM, but that doesn't guarantee anything. When you have a chance at a championship you take it and forget about the future. Also if Nash comes here, I wouldn't be surprised to see Grant Hill follow.

Nash + Gortat for Rondo + JO

Nash + Gortat + Pick for Rondo + JO

Nash + Frye + Hill(S&T) + Picks for Rondo + Baby(S&T)

Nash + Frye + Dudley + Pick for Rondo + Baby(S&T)

Nash + Frye + Gortat + Hill for Rondo + Baby(S&T) +JO+ 2011 Pick(or our 2012 but not the clips pick)


I would do any of these.

Not to mention Nash fits the 2012 plan perfectly. With Rondo gone maybe we could nab 2 max guys.

[gaspar]

well written and decent idea however, it is a lateral move.
Steve Nash, Marcin Gortat and a draft pick for Rondo
If we were going to trade Rondo we'd get a package way better than that.

Oh, that's great because Suns aren't interested in such a trade.

[RondoToKG]

Whats up with people on this forum posting 3 page essays like someone is actually going to read all that. Good god.

[LuckyLeprichan]

I still don't think that team beats the Heat in a playoff series. We need someone who can take over games in the 4th to off-set LBJ/Wade doing it. That no longer describes our big 3 and it doesn't describe Nash anymore.

You're giving up your only good young star in exchange for another 2nd or 3rd round exit. You'll get one season that looks identical to this past season, then you'll be the Pistons for the next 5 years. Bad idea IMO.

[LuckyLeprichan]

People overvalue Rondo too much. He has the potential to be the best PG in the league, but right now he is not. And his biggest flaws have shown stagnated development the last few years. Also people underestimate how difficult it is to achieve a championship calibre team. If any trade makes us closer to a championship now, then I say screw the future. Its not like rebuilding is easy. Teams do it for years and years and still remain in the cellar. Of course we have a much better GM, but that doesn't guarantee anything. When you have a chance at a championship you take it and forget about the future. Also if Nash comes here, I wouldn't be surprised to see Grant Hill follow.

Nash + Gortat for Rondo + JO

Nash + Gortat + Pick for Rondo + JO

Nash + Frye + Hill(S&T) + Picks for Rondo + Baby(S&T)

Nash + Frye + Dudley + Pick for Rondo + Baby(S&T)

Nash + Frye + Gortat + Hill for Rondo + Baby(S&T) +JO+ 2011 Pick(or our 2012 but not the clips pick)


I would do any of these.

Not to mention Nash fits the 2012 plan perfectly. With Rondo gone maybe we could nab 2 max guys.

If Grant Hill gets traded he is retiring. He's expressed numerous times he has no intentions of moving again.

[GuyClinch]

Can't we just get Nash on a buyout or something? I don't see giving up a franchise PG for a 37 year old is a smart decision. I love Nash but that deal would be a head scratcher. Nash is so likely to get hurt playing a full schedule and playoff run.. And no Gortat isn't enough of a deal sweetner. Deal sweetners for that would be like mutiple unprotected first round picks. <g>

[gaspar]

Gortat's trade value a lot higher than just a "deal sweetener". Forget about names and just look at post All-Star stats:

6'11" C - 15.3 pts, 10.6 reb, 1.5 blk, .563 FG%, .709 FT%
6'1" PG - 10.2 pts, 9.4 ast, 2.0 stl, .431 FG%, .600 FT%

I'm not saying that Gortat is worth Rondo, but the risk that the second half of the season was for real is too high for the Suns to trade him.

[NashtyNas]

People overvalue Rondo too much. He has the potential to be the best PG in the league, but right now he is not. And his biggest flaws have shown stagnated development the last few years. Also people underestimate how difficult it is to achieve a championship calibre team. If any trade makes us closer to a championship now, then I say screw the future. Its not like rebuilding is easy. Teams do it for years and years and still remain in the cellar. Of course we have a much better GM, but that doesn't guarantee anything. When you have a chance at a championship you take it and forget about the future. Also if Nash comes here, I wouldn't be surprised to see Grant Hill follow.

Nash + Gortat for Rondo + JO

Nash + Gortat + Pick for Rondo + JO

Nash + Frye + Hill(S&T) + Picks for Rondo + Baby(S&T)

Nash + Frye + Dudley + Pick for Rondo + Baby(S&T)

Nash + Frye + Gortat + Hill for Rondo + Baby(S&T) +JO+ 2011 Pick(or our 2012 but not the clips pick)


I would do any of these.

Not to mention Nash fits the 2012 plan perfectly. With Rondo gone maybe we could nab 2 max guys.

Let's get one thing straight. Yes, we want to see Nash win a ring and all, but we're not dumping him alongside Gortat for Rondo and a pile of trash and then including our pick. We're sure as hell not giving you Frye/Gortat as well.

Now if you are interested in a Nash/Lopez/Childress for Rondo, JO, Big Baby (S&T 18/3) and the Clippers pick we can get that done.

Nash/Bradley
Allen/West
Pierce/Childress
KG/Murphy
Lopez/#25 (Noguiera)

We'd be in full rebuild, but that Clippers pick and the chance to dump Childress helps. That's about the best deal you would get from the Suns.

[Revived]

PHX says yes to Nash, Frye, Hill, #13, top 5 protected '13 first rd pick for Rondo and Davis

Would you guys do that?

[sicknastydunker]

I don't want Nash. i think right now Rondo>Nash and the celtics can pick up someone like dalembert for the MLE instead of Gortat. Nash plays no defense and will get destroyed by Derrick Rose. I would trade Davis + JO + Green for Gortat or something like that but i'm not swapping Rondo for Nash in that deal.

[Kids Are Alright]

Chain Rondo to a basketball hoop, employ a couple of kids to get rebounds and maybe get a psychiatrist to prescribe some drug (sedatives?) so he doesn't get so nervous on the release that he collapses.

The kid ought to be able to take a standard jumper or free throw, really the only holes in his game.

Gortat, a Celtic starter, arggghhhhh. Well, Raef and Blount started. How far we have fallen, yet we all knew it was for 2-3 years, it's the only reason we were able to get the big three thing going with no trade chips, etc, they were getting into the risky part of their careers. Thank God for the championship.

Still, a fan for life.

Go Mavericks!

[Slartibartfast]

Gortat, a Celtic starter, arggghhhhh. Well, Raef and Blount started. How far we have fallen

Gortat is a fine player and on one of the best bargain contracts in the league. Blocks shots, rebounds well, plays rock solid post D, rotates quickly on D, hedges pick and rolls well... offensively, he's an excellent finisher off dump-offs by virtue of his size and athleticism and he's a surprisingly potent pick and roll weapon: finishes very well on the move. He even has a decent mid-range J in pick and pops.

Nash and Gortat for Rondo (and JO) would be a difficult pill for Phoenix to swallow. I doubt they'd do it. Not that they wouldn't love Rondo. Just a lot for them to give up and their remaining roster after Rondo would be pretty blech.