Lather me with blather -- DRAFT thread 4

[fishercob]

Continued...

Per Dr. Linkinstein:

In before the lock, again...

Part One is here.
Part two is here.
Part three filled up in record time.

Current debate: what are the merits of trading up? Trading down? Sticking where we got it?

What's your current state of mind.
What's your top 6.
Who you got at 18?
What round two prospect?

How do you envision them fitting in with the team-- where's the synergy or who do they displace?

Your thoughts below.

[Hoopalotta]

Previous episodes of blather seem to take us to where.....

....Nobody can identify what Jan Vesely is good at beyond rolling to the basket.
....Everyone hates him and, if forced to choose, some would prefer Jan Brady.
....We'd like to move up.
...."But would you throw in Booker & the 34th?" packages aren't getting it done.
....We probably can't get to 2 unless we cough up McGee or maybe a future 1st.
....Most don't want to move up so much as all that.
....6th more or less stinks for us unless a big falls or we've got big enough balls to take Biyombo.
....Many people will disagree with that premise, likely Ernie included.
....Kemba should entice someone for a trade back if he's still on the board.
....If he's not on the board, it means a big fell.
....We could draft guys like Marcus or Kawhi, though we're arguably the first team to drop a tier.
....Those guys might be there at 10th or whatever.
....We could try and trade back; stuff our stockings and such.
....There's a lot of interesting prospects through the mid round.
....Some people don't like trade-backs in that we can't possibly use that many players.
....Some like grabbing a bunch of picks as we could unearth nice trade pieces.
....Or we could use them in a Darwinian PT scrum, knowing that only some will work out.
....In that scenario, posters will complain about the ones that didn't work out.
....Everyone still hates Jan Vesley.

[JWizmentality]

but but but...the other thread hasn't gone 100 yet.

[Ed Wood]

The one thing I think you have to give Vesely, because there has to be something, is that I don't think there can be much doubt that however much he scores in the NBA he'll do so pretty efficiently. He basically shoots right at the rim, which he's very good at, or he shoots threes, which he's not really great at but is a good idea if you have to take shots you're not good at. Presumably he'll be a little better at the line because embarrassment is a pretty powerful motivator. All of these things could be said about noted small forward Trevor Booker, however, save the three point shooting, such as it is.

[Hoopalotta]

The one thing I think you have to give Vesely, because there has to be something, is that I don't think there can be much doubt that however much he scores in the NBA he'll do so pretty efficiently. He basically shoots right at the rim, which he's very good at, or he shoots threes, which he's not really great at but is a good idea if you have to take shots you're not good at. Presumably he'll be a little better at the line because embarrassment is a pretty powerful motivator. All of these things could be said about noted small forward Trevor Booker, however, save the three point shooting, such as it is.

If we draft him, I'd hope to hear that he played hurt last year and that's why he wasn't particularly effective. Or, you know, his Beagle died or something.



Dammit Shnooker, why couldn't we have had more time together in this cruel world?

You'd have to be heartless for that not to throw you off.

I think I need a minute here.

[Dat2U]

Marcus or Kawhi. Understandable at #18. But this draft is a failure if either is the 6th pick. Both would be terribly uninspiring, safe choices. Neither represents a clear answer at any position other than adding "depth". We'll still be looking for a "starting" SF in a year or two if either are the choice.

Vesely is a colossal bust waiting to happen if he's drafted in the lottery.

Motiejunas is better than Valanciunas right now IMO. But I wouldn't draft either with the 6th pick.

It's a four player draft. Williams, Kanter, Walker & Irving. None of them is a franchise caliber player or an elite difference maker. Were talking about at best 2nd options here, more than likely 3rd option caliber talent.

Biyombo is the wildcard. If his age checks out. I'd consider rolling the dice at #6 if the above mentioned four are gone at six.

I like Brandon Knight. But not in love. I think he's on the next tier below the top 4, along with the likes of Singleton, Faried & Biyombo.

There's a lot of players this year that I don't like. Especially the bigs. Vucevic is skilled but incredibly soft and not very athletic. He may stay in the league but I have major doubts that he'll ever be a rotation worthy player. Same with Markieff Morris. I don't think he does anything well enough to succeed at the NBA level. Jordan Williams doesn't strike me as an NBA talent. If he sticks, its as a non-rotation player.

[doclinkin]

In before the lock, again...

Part One is here.
Part two is here.
Part three filled up in record time.

Current debate: what are the merits of trading up? Trading down? Sticking where we got it?

What's your current state of mind.
What's your top 6.
Who you got at 18?
What round two prospect?

How do you envision them fitting in with the team-- where's the synergy or who do they displace?

Your thoughts below.

[doclinkin]

Placeholder for draft basics, Tier system (ranged average version):

In looking at the draft every year it’s useful to borrow the Tier concept. That is, you rank players according to Tiers of equivalent talent, then within those tiers, you rank them according to team need. This way you don’t pass over a more talented cat in favor of a player at a need position.

I look at them like this:

TIER ZERO: HOF player
TIER ONE: All-star calibre (or DPOY, 1st team/2nd team all-whatever, or other award winner)
TIER TWO: Starter
TIER THREE: Rotation player. Role player.
TIER FOUR: Deep Bench
TIER FIVE: D-Leaguer, Eurostash, or injury concerns. (maybe/maybe-not players).
TIER SIX: Negative value: chemistry wrecker

[At root it's a question of how many minutes would the guy earn. Would you play him every minute of every game plus overtime, over every other player on any squad? =vs= Tier Five: is there a chance he never plays for you at all, or at best, sporadically, due to stints on the injured list or the D-League, or due to an awkward Euro contract: not at all. =vs= Tier Six: is there a chance you might have to eat some money or a bad trade to get him off your team?].

Given that we don’t know the future, one way to clarify things is to look at a player’s possible RANGE from 0-6, then average their numbers to figure out your opinion of them.

Some ‘upside’ guys may have a pretty wide range (this year I see a guy like PF/C Jeremy Tyler as a 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6 guy, averaging to a 3.4 or thereabouts. I don’t see him as a ‘4′ deep bench guy ever, since he’s a bit of a pretty boy with a high opinion of himself thus as a bench load he reads to me like he’d be a chemistry problem).

Naturally this doesn’t say anything more than what you feel about a given player, but can help you make choices about who you want. Which, given that you’re just a fan with no decision-making authority anyway, is about all you get.

Unless you write Uncle Teddy and convince him that you’re right.

[doclinkin]

TIERS (primer placeholder continued -- I'll pin this on post one of the earlier threads too, or the links thread so we don't have to re-type it every year)
''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
When you have a few players tied at a number then you can rank them by position of need.

In the case of our team, we need every position but PG. Apologies to JaVale who has Tier Zero talent but Tier Five work habits (though he’d dominate the D-League if we ever sent him down there, so it would reinforce his as yet unearned high opinion of himself).

Normally I’d rank team needs in order like this:

C — A dominant two-way big is the hardest position to fill
PG — Coach on the floor, greater than the sum of the parts
PF — See ‘Center’ above, though less so, unless they can defend the 5, then they rank high.
SG — Secondary ballhandler gives this position stronger weight, right now quality 2-guards are a rarity in the league
SF — I rank this position higher if they defend multiple positions effectively.

This year I’d bump the PG spot lower. Though back-up PG may be a need position, according to John Wall, depending on what you think about Crawford.

For me in this draft:

Tier Zero: None.
Tier One: None.
Tier Two: Derrick Williams, Kyrie Irving, Enes Kanter, now Jonas Valanciunas
Tier Three: dozens o’ players…

That’s where the real slog is. Guys like Chris Singleton have an upside of 1st team all defense, a downside of deep bench considering we need reliable perimeter scoring and finishers.

Whereas guys like Bismack Biyombo have an outside upside of Mutombo-like defense (HOF) weighed against an International Draft-and-stash at best (Tier 5. D-leaguer types). And a stronger likelihood of deep bench minutes, due to other raw developing guys on the squad who play the same position.

This is where maybe you want to hedge your bets and trade down to pick up a few chances at decent players. Pick one with solid rotation player potential and one with higher upside/downside swing.

Or trade out into a draft with more TIER ONE and up potential.

[closg00]

Previous episodes of blather seem to take us to where.....

....Nobody can identify what Jan Vesely is good at beyond rolling to the basket.
....Everyone hates him and, if forced to choose, some would prefer Jan Brady.
....We'd like to move up.
...."But would you throw in Booker & the 34th?" packages aren't getting it done.
....We probably can't get to 2 unless we cough up McGee or maybe a future 1st.
....Most don't want to move up so much as all that.
....6th more or less stinks for us unless a big falls or we've got big enough balls to take Biyombo.
....Many people will disagree with that premise, likely Ernie included.
....Kemba should entice someone for a trade back if he's still on the board.
....If he's not on the board, it means a big fell.
....We could draft guys like Marcus or Kawhi, though we're arguably the first team to drop a tier.
....Those guys might be there at 10th or whatever.
....We could try and trade back; stuff our stockings and such.
....There's a lot of interesting prospects through the mid round.
....Some people don't like trade-backs in that we can't possibly use that many players.
....Some like grabbing a bunch of picks as we could unearth nice trade pieces.
....Or we could use them in a Darwinian PT scrum, knowing that only some will work out.
....In that scenario, posters will complain about the ones that didn't work out.
....Everyone still hates Jan Vesley.

Nice re-cap Hoop

[doclinkin]

Jeepers: continuity error, time travel paradox, parallel universes. Lookit Fisher with the me-too threadnapping. Shame. Shakin' my head.

[closg00]

This slipped by me yesterday..

“Listen, we like Washington. I haven’t heard anything from them,” said Kanter’s agent, Max Ergul. “I guess they know he’s not going to be there at six. So, until they do something about it, it seems like they are not going to give me a call for workout.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... _blog.html

Why the cold shoulder to Enes? I wonder why we aren't working-out more bigs, Williams and Johnson only so-far. I hope to see Tyler, Benson, & Vucevic added to our workouts before draft day.

[Rafael122]

Who's to say the Wizards haven't sent guys to his other workouts? It's cost effective.And I'm sure they don't want to overplay their hand, or get a sense of what we're trying to do.

DX's latest mock draft: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=A ... cn-8581953

#6 - Enes Kanter
#18 - Tobias Harris

I'm not in love with the Harris pick. I'd rather go Singleton. But if Kanter doesn't get picked at #4, there's a good shot he might go to the Wizards. Dream come true!

[Jay81]

I think kanter will fall to us...pray for Jv buyout situation to be resolved. If kanter can fall to us at 6...it would be like we never lost the lottery. Then we need to trade 34 and 18 and move up to 10-12 if possible

[Ruzious]

Marcus or Kawhi. Understandable at #18. But this draft is a failure if either is the 6th pick. Both would be terribly uninspiring, safe choices. Neither represents a clear answer at any position other than adding "depth". We'll still be looking for a "starting" SF in a year or two if either are the choice.

Vesely is a colossal bust waiting to happen if he's drafted in the lottery.

Motiejunas is better than Valanciunas right now IMO. But I wouldn't draft either with the 6th pick.

It's a four player draft. Williams, Kanter, Walker & Irving. None of them is a franchise caliber player or an elite difference maker. Were talking about at best 2nd options here, more than likely 3rd option caliber talent.

Biyombo is the wildcard. If his age checks out. I'd consider rolling the dice at #6 if the above mentioned four are gone at six.

I like Brandon Knight. But not in love. I think he's on the next tier below the top 4, along with the likes of Singleton, Faried & Biyombo.

I agree with you on Knight, but the best thing about him is that it sounds like teams picking 3-5 like him enough so that there's a good chance he'll be picked before 6. If Walker also goes top 5, then the Wiz are in great shape. Of course, I'm saying that because I'm a much bigger fan of JV than you are. The video Doc posted on - I think page 95 or 96 of the last draft thread really showed his physical development at the end of the season - much stronger looking than last season. To quote The Monkeys, "I'm a believer".

[closg00]

Who's to say the Wizards haven't sent guys to his other workouts? It's cost effective.And I'm sure they don't want to overplay their hand, or get a sense of what we're trying to do.

DX's latest mock draft: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=A ... cn-8581953

#6 - Enes Kanter
#18 - Tobias Harris

I'm not in love with the Harris pick. I'd rather go Singleton. But if Kanter doesn't get picked at #4, there's a good shot he might go to the Wizards. Dream come true!

Yeah, that's a given, we do have our peeps at all of the big group work-outs. I'd be thrilled to get either Kanter or JV at 6, even-though the wait would be longer for JV. Givony is REALLY getting my hopes-up that we'll land Kanter....too-good to be true IMO.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Yeah so far the workouts have been strange and dispointing. Not much in the way top 6 or even top 18 talent. I saw something else where Leonard was saying he hadn't heard from the Wizards either.

Maybe we are really working on a trade, or already have who we're targeting and don't want to tip our hand.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

Who's to say the Wizards haven't sent guys to his other workouts? It's cost effective.And I'm sure they don't want to overplay their hand, or get a sense of what we're trying to do.

DX's latest mock draft: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=A ... cn-8581953

#6 - Enes Kanter
#18 - Tobias Harris

I'm not in love with the Harris pick. I'd rather go Singleton. But if Kanter doesn't get picked at #4, there's a good shot he might go to the Wizards. Dream come true!

Crazy, that article makes it sound like Cleveland has JV AND Bismack in front of Kanter on their draft board!
As unlikely as that sounds, if its true the chances of Kanter dropping to us are actually pretty decent. I'm holding out hope both Utah and Toronto are in fact looking to draft a PG. If they aren't that screws up everything.

[Ruzious]

Who's to say the Wizards haven't sent guys to his other workouts? It's cost effective.And I'm sure they don't want to overplay their hand, or get a sense of what we're trying to do.

Agreed. I'm not concerned. Maybe they overdo it with their gamesmanship, but I'm sure they're doing their due dilligence.

[TGW]

I can never take DX seriosuly....I think Givony gets fooled all the time and is fed misinformation by his so-called insiders and agents.

NBAdraft.net is probably closer to the truth than anything else.