Lather me with blather -- DRAFT thread 4

[hands11]

I would not trade up in this draft. There are plenty of players on the board that will be there when we pick that can help this team and or become trade assets or allow other players to become trade assets.

The team already have enough players who could end up being stars. McGee still may end up being an amazing player. Wall. Booker, etc. Then there is the 2012 FA class. Who knows how this all ends up but it will likely involve a trade in 2012 or 2013 and FA to mold the team that is the product they go for it with. Just keep adding quality assets right now.

I was not a fan of the DW interview. Something didnt feel right. I have to watch all the interviews again so I can put a list together of the ones that stood out. Kemba comes to mind as the type of personality you want. Williams seemed a little to much like a cheese Dick.

And since their has been little about him on the board, I think Jimmer is going to produce instantly. Every team needs a quick release long ball shooter. Great for spacing and instant offense off the bench.

Brooks was also interesting. I can see the Kobe vibe in him that has been mentioned. I have a really good feeling about him. Loved his interview. 7-1 reach and 38" vert. Didn't see the heart to finish at the rim though. Looks like Nick without the dee dee dee.

Marcus should also be a safe pick. He says he is a PP type SF. I see some tough juice also. We could use another SF. Specially with range.

Really liking Klay. He seems like a sure thing. Solid personality. Dad was a player. Someone is going to get a solid player. If we like an old MM, why wouldnt EG like him? That is if you want a pure shooter. There seem to be several in this draft. Harper. Jimmer etc.

There is plenty on the board. Steady as she goes.

[popper]

I'm stating the obvious when I say that the decision to trade up or down is driven by the perceived value of assets received vs. assets forfeited. I'm sure EG will be assessing both options all the way up to the last minute. My analyses (flawed as it may be) is that trading down will probably be the best path because the difference between #6 and #9 through #15 appears marginal. Trading up for a DW or EK could be a very costly mistake unless the target becomes a superstar. Why take that risk when you can get two or more solid players in a trade down scenario with very little risk.

That analysis would make sense in the NFL when you have so many roster spots to fill. The NBA is different because there are so few roster spots. Title contenders are built around stars, not solid players. A roster full of solid players will have you mired in mediocrity.

You seem to be pretty selective in your risk assessment. There is also the risk that trading down will lead to drafting players who suck. Just look at the link posted above about the 2006 draft. Every year there are guys picked in the middle of the first round that teams have high hopes for only to see those players turn into busts. That could easily happen here.

In the NBA the old adage is that the team that got the best player wins the trade. It's about quality, not quantity. I can't think of too many recent examples where a team benefited from trading down on draft night. But i can definitely think of some examples (Deron, LMA, Roy) where team's benefited big time from trading up.

Generally I agree with you but this year there doesn't seem to be any potential superstars. Therefore I would trade down if I could get two firsts or a very solid young player and a first. I would also trade up if it were inexpensive to do so. EG will have to define inexpensive. I would define it as our 6th plus our second round pick this year and next year for the fourth pick. Chances are that won't be enough so I trade down.

[Jay81]

6 and 18 for favors?

[Benjammin]

6 and 18 for favors?

Once the Jazz stop laughing, they'll hang up the phone.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would not be on board with Singleton @ 6. We'd be reaching too much just to fill specific roster needs. If we reach, I'd rather reach for a big like Tristian Thompson or further strengthen our backcourt with a superior prospect like Alec Burks there. We'd have a pretty dynamic 3 man backcourt with Wall, Burks, and Crawford.

There really aren't many - if any - good options at 6. Thompson is long, but he's under 6'9 and just 227 lbs at PF and with very limited offensive tools. Burks might be good, but picking him means your likely letting go of Nick Young, so you'd be basically recycling Nick. Singleton is solid, but the injury messed up his progress - and he supposedly got clearly bested by Marcus Morris recently. These players can help, but I think the Wiz need to do better.

Thompson may not have the ideal height, but his length makes up for that. In addition to that he seems to have a frame that can fill in a bit so size isn't an issue to me with him. You also have to take into consideration his defensive ability.

Burks is a much better prospect at SG than NY IMO. Burks is much more versatile and can create going to the hoop. Nick is a great shooter, but adds very little else to the game.

I don't have stats to back this up, but my gut feeling is Tristan Thompson IS worth the sixth pick. He is a tremendous defender. His HS profile and competitiveness as a freshman at Texas makes me think he's eventually going to be a terrific defensive presence in the NBA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would not be on board with Singleton @ 6. We'd be reaching too much just to fill specific roster needs. If we reach, I'd rather reach for a big like Tristian Thompson or further strengthen our backcourt with a superior prospect like Alec Burks there. We'd have a pretty dynamic 3 man backcourt with Wall, Burks, and Crawford.

There really aren't many - if any - good options at 6. Thompson is long, but he's under 6'9 and just 227 lbs at PF and with very limited offensive tools. Burks might be good, but picking him means your likely letting go of Nick Young, so you'd be basically recycling Nick. Singleton is solid, but the injury messed up his progress - and he supposedly got clearly bested by Marcus Morris recently. These players can help, but I think the Wiz need to do better.

Thompson may not have the ideal height, but his length makes up for that. In addition to that he seems to have a frame that can fill in a bit so size isn't an issue to me with him. You also have to take into consideration his defensive ability.

Burks is a much better prospect at SG than NY IMO. Burks is much more versatile and can create going to the hoop. Nick is a great shooter, but adds very little else to the game.

I don't have stats to back this up, but my gut feeling is Tristan Thompson IS worth the sixth pick. He is a tremendous defender. His HS profile and competitiveness as a freshman at Texas makes me think he's eventually going to be a terrific defensive presence in the NBA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Atleast Leonard can defend and has offensive potential. Could our team use a player like Trevor Ariza in our rebuild? I think so. Their predraft measurements and combine results are almost identical. I'm fine with Singleton or Leonard I'd just be prefer if we could pick them up later while getting and additional pick. I don't know what you talking about Wiz D as far as Leonard being as stiff as a board that is way off. He shows fluid movement on cuts and can use both hands around the basket. He also suffered from bad guard play

Leonard can defend and rebound for a SF.

I just have a gut feeling he'll be very good in the NBA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Atleast Leonard can defend and has offensive potential. Could our team use a player like Trevor Ariza in our rebuild? I think so. Their predraft measurements and combine results are almost identical. I'm fine with Singleton or Leonard I'd just be prefer if we could pick them up later while getting and additional pick. I don't know what you talking about Wiz D as far as Leonard being as stiff as a board that is way off. He shows fluid movement on cuts and can use both hands around the basket. He also suffered from bad guard play

Leonard can defend and rebound for a SF.

I just have a gut feeling he'll be very good in the NBA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

FWIW, I no longer want either one of these guys at #6. If we trade down to 12 or so, I think I'd take Leonard ahead of Singleton.

As of now, at #6, I'd take whoever is left among Kanter, Valanciunas or Walker, in that order. If we draft Walker, I'd try and trade him immediately for a later pick plus incentive.

If I didn't get Kanter or Jon V, I'd trade down for Faried.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

By the way, our front office is doing a pretty good job with mis-information. We're reported to really like Vesely and Leonard, be aggressively in the mix to get up to #2 (presumably to take Williams). I wouldn't be surprised if within a week or two we hear that we're now in love with Kanter or JV or that we're now intent on trading our pick to the highest bidder.

Thing is, by now the FO likely knows exactly what it wants to do and has several plans in place in the event of multiple contingencies.

Yup, the Minister of Propaganda is in full disinformation mode. Frankly, the best guess is that the Wizards secretly like Valanciunas. He's the one guy we've heard nothing about. (To be fair, we haven't said much about Kanter either. The only reason why he's been mentioned as a possibility is the Wall/Kentucky connection.)

One really quick way to change this team would be to trade McGee and end up with Valanciunas and a pick. Not down with this because of the unknowns, but I see some thing V does better than Javale.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

By the way, our front office is doing a pretty good job with mis-information. We're reported to really like Vesely and Leonard, be aggressively in the mix to get up to #2 (presumably to take Williams). I wouldn't be surprised if within a week or two we hear that we're now in love with Kanter or JV or that we're now intent on trading our pick to the highest bidder.

Thing is, by now the FO likely knows exactly what it wants to do and has several plans in place in the event of multiple contingencies.

Yup, the Minister of Propaganda is in full disinformation mode. Frankly, the best guess is that the Wizards secretly like Valanciunas. He's the one guy we've heard nothing about. (To be fair, we haven't said much about Kanter either. The only reason why he's been mentioned as a possibility is the Wall/Kentucky connection.)

One really quick way to change this team would be to trade McGee and end up with Valanciunas and a pick. Not down with this because of the unknowns, but I have seen on video one or two things V does better than Javale.

[jivelikenice]

Atleast Leonard can defend and has offensive potential. Could our team use a player like Trevor Ariza in our rebuild? I think so. Their predraft measurements and combine results are almost identical. I'm fine with Singleton or Leonard I'd just be prefer if we could pick them up later while getting and additional pick. I don't know what you talking about Wiz D as far as Leonard being as stiff as a board that is way off. He shows fluid movement on cuts and can use both hands around the basket. He also suffered from bad guard play

Leonard can defend and rebound for a SF.

I just have a gut feeling he'll be very good in the NBA.

Leonard is an interesting player in that people seem to treat him like a finished product even though he's only a sophomore coming out and is just beginning to develop his perimeter skills. In a normal draft i do not think he's worth the 6th pick, but this isn't a normal draft. He can immediately come in and contribute defensively and on the boards so you know you're getting something of value immediately. Watching the highlights of his workout he played a lot longer than I anticipated offensively which was a positive and I'm optimistic about his shooting potential as he showed a nice high release point. I can see the G. Wallace comparisons with better shooting potential....

The criticism of his strength is off base. Long arms makes it difficult to lift & the bench press is not always a good indication of strength. Caron Butler only did 2 reps of the bench and tested near the bottom in terms of lane agility and 3/4 court sprints......Would you consider him weak?

[doclinkin]

I don't have stats to back this up, but my gut feeling is Tristan Thompson IS worth the sixth pick. He is a tremendous defender. His HS profile and competitiveness as a freshman at Texas makes me think he's eventually going to be a terrific defensive presence in the NBA.

Here's the stats to back it up, of course they also highlight Chris Singleton, Kawhi Leonard and Jordan Hamilton:

Texas was the#2 team in overall defensive efficiency, holding their opponents to a eFG of 42.5% with a low rate of FT's per shot attempt. And T2 was the most effective defender on their team. Jordan Hamilton was pretty good despite his write-up and profile but Tristan's length and willingness to challenge out to the perimeter as well as inside was a key factor. Jordan Hamilton feasted on defensive rebounds forced by Tristan's willingness to challenge - one reason why Thompson's defensive rebounding numbers are low while his offensive boards are solid is that he was forcing misses for Hamilton to scoop up. Brendan Haywood style.

Notice though the #1 defensive squad: Florida State and Chris Singleton.
And the #3 defensive squad: San Diego State and Kawhi Leonard.

This is a good year for defensive stalwarts. A weak draft from an all-star perspective, but there are competent tough savvy competitive defensive mugs all up and down the draft.

[Hoopalotta]

As of now, at #6, I'd take whoever is left among Kanter, Valanciunas or Walker, in that order. If we draft Walker, I'd try and trade him immediately for a later pick plus incentive.

I think that's pretty much what it comes down to with the one other consideration on my end being that I also like Biyombo. But I don't know what would have to happen or what could happen for that basic position to be overturned. There'll be someone available at 6 with more value than the other candidates and he'll either be a big or a point guard.

If we trade back, then the discussion gets complicated again with a lot of candidates, but I hope we just operate from what seem the fundamental advantages of the 6th pick in that there's apparently good interest in Kemba and then we could also use a big. I'll be worried if we move away from that premise, though if interest for Kemba is not substantive and we can't justify Biyombo, we may be forced to.

Scraey stuff; we'll just have to hope Vesley gets over Shnooker's passing and can move along with his life.

Anyway......



Hey everybody, here's the "not-highlights, but rather game film" Biyombo channel again!

http://www.youtube.com/user/bboyskinnyl ... ChPDnUlOFg

(also has 15 minutes of Valentine footage from one particular game)

.....Rather torn on the pecking order of where I'd take each from amongst Kanter-Valentine-Biyombo right now; not likely to be any truly complete players in that lot with distinct strengths and weaknesses. If you could meld Kanter and Biyombo's strengths, you'd have a consensus #1 with HOF potential.

[Hoopalotta]

I'm stating the obvious when I say that the decision to trade up or down is driven by the perceived value of assets received vs. assets forfeited. I'm sure EG will be assessing both options all the way up to the last minute. My analyses (flawed as it may be) is that trading down will probably be the best path because the difference between #6 and #9 through #15 appears marginal. Trading up for a DW or EK could be a very costly mistake unless the target becomes a superstar. Why take that risk when you can get two or more solid players in a trade down scenario with very little risk.

That analysis would make sense in the NFL when you have so many roster spots to fill. The NBA is different because there are so few roster spots. Title contenders are built around stars, not solid players. A roster full of solid players will have you mired in mediocrity.

You seem to be pretty selective in your risk assessment. There is also the risk that trading down will lead to drafting players who suck. Just look at the link posted above about the 2006 draft. Every year there are guys picked in the middle of the first round that teams have high hopes for only to see those players turn into busts. That could easily happen here.

In the NBA the old adage is that the team that got the best player wins the trade. It's about quality, not quantity. I can't think of too many recent examples where a team benefited from trading down on draft night. But i can definitely think of some examples (Deron, LMA, Roy) where team's benefited big time from trading up.

Generally I agree with you but this year there doesn't seem to be any potential superstars. Therefore I would trade down if I could get two firsts or a very solid young player and a first. I would also trade up if it were inexpensive to do so. EG will have to define inexpensive. I would define it as our 6th plus our second round pick this year and next year for the fourth pick. Chances are that won't be enough so I trade down.

In a trade down scenario, I'd ideally see us then work a trade up from the mid round. Say, 6th for 9th and 19th and then 18th & 19th for 11th or whatever (or maybe 19th, 34th & cash for something if we're lucky). That would put us in what looks to be the sweet spot of this particular draft, though I'm not sure if that's realistic.

I can see the case against the trade back plan, but a great many scenarios at 6 strike as being of a precarious premise; there's just a lot of ways to screw up the 6th pick this year.

[dangermouse]

Tristan Thompson, would a good comparison be a slightly less athletic Josh Smith?

[Ruzious]

Tristan Thompson, would a good comparison be a slightly less athletic Josh Smith?

Yup, plus without the scoring and passing skills. Yeah!!!

[closg00]

Atleast Leonard can defend and has offensive potential. Could our team use a player like Trevor Ariza in our rebuild? I think so. Their predraft measurements and combine results are almost identical. I'm fine with Singleton or Leonard I'd just be prefer if we could pick them up later while getting and additional pick. I don't know what you talking about Wiz D as far as Leonard being as stiff as a board that is way off. He shows fluid movement on cuts and can use both hands around the basket. He also suffered from bad guard play

Leonard can defend and rebound for a SF.

I just have a gut feeling he'll be very good in the NBA.

I have to admit that Leonard looked good in the Wiz workout video, he has kind of a goofy game, but it works.

[tontoz]

Generally I agree with you but this year there doesn't seem to be any potential superstars. Therefore I would trade down if I could get two firsts or a very solid young player and a first. I would also trade up if it were inexpensive to do so. EG will have to define inexpensive. I would define it as our 6th plus our second round pick this year and next year for the fourth pick. Chances are that won't be enough so I trade down.

I don't see much value of another first since they already have the 18th pick. If there is someone they really like in that range they can just pick him at 18. Therefore any first round pick after 18 automatically goes down in value.

Re: Leonard.... All NBA players have long arms and wingspan isn't just a measure of arm length but of shoulder width. An extra inch on each arm isn't going to have a substantial impact on his bench press numbers. And 260 pound Kanter had the same vertical as Leonard.

Even with his long arms he struggled to finish inside in college. That isn't a good sign for the pros.

A defender/rebounder can have much more defensive impact at the 4/5 than at the 3. That is why only two non-bigs have won the DPOY in the last 20 years.

[verbal8]

I wonder when DX is going to start factoring in team needs to their
mock. Right now they have Faried going to Minn. That would seem
to be a superfluous move considering they already have Love.

I think Faried and Love could work pretty well together. I think that could be a great PF/C combo for a small ball line-up. Faried also would be a good back-up to give them more of a defensive look with the second team. Faried probably also works pretty well at PF with Beasley at SF(covers some of his rebounding and defensive issues).

I agree it would be absurd for the Timberwolves to draft 2 PFs in this draft, when that seems to be the only position they have much talent. Also there would be Brooks and even Vucevic on the board according the mock. However when dealing with Kahn, I would not rule-out the absurd.