Question from a Jazz fan & Trade

[Illuminaire]

I'm sorry, but trading two lotto picks and the #18 to move up three slots in what could be the weakest draft of the last ten years is not a good idea.

The best case scenario is that we traded three tier-3 players for someone we think, but aren't entirely sure, is tier-2. That's not bad, but that's the best case outcome. We're still going to be thin next season, which could be lockout shortened, and our young guys could easily come out the gate slowly.

A top-ten pick in a potentially MUCH stronger draft is not something we should give up without significant return.

[theboomking]

I'm sorry, but trading two lotto picks and the #18 to move up three slots in what could be the weakest draft of the last ten years is not a good idea.

The best case scenario is that we traded three tier-3 players for someone we think, but aren't entirely sure, is tier-2. That's not bad, but that's the best case outcome. We're still going to be thin next season, which could be lockout shortened, and our young guys could easily come out the gate slowly.

A top-ten pick in a potentially MUCH stronger draft is not something we should give up without significant return.

The value entirely depends on how high the two lotto picks you trade are, and the player you get 3 spots higher. For instance, in 2003, the difference between 6 and 3 is that between Chris Kaman and Carmelo Anthony. The difference between 5 and 8 is the difference between Dwayne Wade and TJ Ford. In the NBA draft, just 3 three slots can be, and frequently is the difference between a HOF player and a nobody. If the pick pick the year after the trade is the 8th pick

If we have the 6th or 7th worst record next year, that gives us an 18.3% chance at a top 3 pick. If we are 8th or lower, we have, at best, a 6.8% chance of winning a top 3 pick.
http://www.nba.com/celtics/stats/inside ... odds.htmlI don't think it is entirely unreasonable to say that we have a very good chance at not having a top 7 pick next year. Given that possibility, and looking at the statistics, you'd have to at least consider that trading two mid-lotto picks probably isn't even going to be fair market value for the 2nd pick in the draft. If we were picking 2nd this year, would you trade our shot at Williams or Kanter for the 6th pick and a pick that has a low probability of panning out to be a top 6 pick next year? I probably wouldn't.

[Illuminaire]

The value entirely depends on how high the two lotto picks you trade are, and the player you get 3 spots higher. For instance, in 2003, the difference between 6 and 3 is that between Chris Kaman and Carmelo Anthony. The difference between 5 and 8 is the difference between Dwayne Wade and TJ Ford. In the NBA draft, just 3 three slots can be, and frequently is the difference between a HOF player and a nobody. If the pick pick the year after the trade is the 8th pick

If we have the 6th or 7th worst record next year, that gives us an 18.3% chance at a top 3 pick. If we are 8th or lower, we have, at best, a 6.8% chance of winning a top 3 pick.
http://www.nba.com/celtics/stats/inside ... odds.htmlI don't think it is entirely unreasonable to say that we have a very good chance at not having a top 7 pick next year. Given that possibility, and looking at the statistics, you'd have to at least consider that trading two mid-lotto picks probably isn't even going to be fair market value for the 2nd pick in the draft. If we were picking 2nd this year, would you trade our shot at Williams or Kanter for the 6th pick and a pick that has a low probability of panning out to be a top 6 pick next year? I probably wouldn't.

Three slots certainly can make for a big difference in talent, but that is very unlikely to be the case this year. (Which I said in the post you quoted too, but hey.)

There are no superstars in this draft that we know about now. It's possible someone breaks out, but it doesn't look like it will happen from here. There are, quite possibly, not even any all-star level players in this draft. There are a ton of role-players and rotation guys and maybe, MAYBE three to five really good starters.

Of course, half of those are PGs and all of them have major holes in their game or question marks about how they'll do in the NBA.

Perhaps you don't recall, but four of the projected top ten players for this draft pulled out. They'll be there next year, along with a group of prospects generally considered *much* stronger across the board. So no, I wouldn't trade any pick in the top-frigging-15 for next draft, because it is extremely likely that a player we can get at 12 next year will have the same potential as a player we get at 3 this year.

Your comments are very reasonable from a general standpoint, but I don't think you're applying them properly to this actual situation.

[pancakes3]

+1 with illuminaire. lots of people caught up in winning the short term here. swapping 2 lotto picks and a mid 1st for a slightly higher lotto in a marginal role-player-filled draft is just plain dumb. no one in this draft is on 'melo status, lebron status, durant status, or even dwight status for us to mortgage the future on. i'd happily deal our #6 to the clippers for their pick next year and take a crack at perry jones or jared sullinger.

[theboomking]

Three slots certainly can make for a big difference in talent, but that is very unlikely to be the case this year. (Which I said in the post you quoted too, but hey.)

There are no superstars in this draft that we know about now. It's possible someone breaks out, but it doesn't look like it will happen from here. There are, quite possibly, not even any all-star level players in this draft. There are a ton of role-players and rotation guys and maybe, MAYBE three to five really good starters.

Of course, half of those are PGs and all of them have major holes in their game or question marks about how they'll do in the NBA.

Perhaps you don't recall, but four of the projected top ten players for this draft pulled out. They'll be there next year, along with a group of prospects generally considered *much* stronger across the board. So no, I wouldn't trade any pick in the top-frigging-15 for next draft, because it is extremely likely that a player we can get at 12 next year will have the same potential as a player we get at 3 this year.

Your comments are very reasonable from a general standpoint, but I don't think you're applying them properly to this actual situation.

I actually don't think we differ that much philosophically. I just think we'll be better next year. I also probably value Kanter and Williams a bit more highly than you do.

Next year, NBAdraft.net has the following top 14:
(1)Anthony Davis
(2)Harrison Barnes
(3)Jame McAdoo
(4)Perry Jones
(5)Quincy Miller
(6)Jared Sullinger
(7)Jeremy Lamb
(8)Marquis Teague
(9)Myck Kabongo
(10)Brad Beal
(11)Austin Rivers
(12)Michael Gilchrist
(13)Adonis Thomas
(14)Terrence Jones
http://www.nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft

If that order roughly holds, perhaps you are right. Gilchrist or Beal would be a steal with the 10th pick or later. However, I think that both go higher, and if we end up picking 9th or 10th, next year, and get Leonard or a similar pick at 6 this year, we might be skyrocketing to mediocrity and just have been better off moving up for Williams or Kanter. Again, I'm not saying that we definitely should move up, but that we should consider the possibility.

Just for the record, in what range do you expect us to fall in the lotto next year if we add a player of the caliber of Biyombo or Leonard in this draft, and aren't active in FA this year?

[Illuminaire]

Man, that's a hard question to answer. So much depends on how much McGee and Wall develop, if Blatche gets into shape, and our luck with injuries.

I could see us anywhere between the 8th pick and the 18th, though I'd say the most likely result is somewhere in the 10-14 range. If we don't improve that much, it means one of our core pieces isn't really a core piece, or someone lost a leg to the medical staff again.

[theboomking]

Man, that's a hard question to answer. So much depends on how much McGee and Wall develop, if Blatche gets into shape, and our luck with injuries.

I could see us anywhere between the 8th pick and the 18th, though I'd say the most likely result is somewhere in the 10-14 range. If we don't improve that much, it means one of our core pieces isn't really a core piece, or someone lost a leg to the medical staff again.

I tend to agree with you. Man, we really feel differently about the value of the 10th-14 pick in the draft next year then. I tend to doubt it will yield a real impact player. In fact, I don't think we would consider accepting the #6 and #18 picks this year, and the #10 next year if we already owned the 2nd pick in the draft. I think we'll just have to agree to disagree. I do think you've made a good argument however, and suspect that Ted thinks more along your lines than mine.

[Mr Dew]

All this is based on the assumption that MN passes on Williams. As a Wolves fan, I have to say that is highly unlikely. Williams does not fit our needs well at all and we'll likely trade the pick for a proven veteran or we'll move down a few slots to acquire more assets, but all the reports state that Williams is #2 on the Wolves board and if we can't make a deal, we'll take him and deal with it later.

[Illuminaire]

You are most likely correct, Mr. Dew.

Kanter isn't worth trading so much for. Williams might be, but he's not going to be there at 3 unless a deal is worked out with Minnie, or Khan does something amazingly stupid.